Climate change - Scottish National Adaptation Plan 2024-2029: island communities impact assessment

Data and Stakeholders

Literature Review

Demography

The relative aging population living on Scottish islands makes those communities more vulnerable to climate change. Age is a factor which compounds vulnerability to climate change. The projected percentage change in population by age grouping, based on 2022 census data, shows that Scotland's population will age in every area to 2043. The highest % reduction in children and the working age population is in islands and remote rural areas (- 23% and -15%). The projected percentage change in population is most extreme in island and remote rural areas, where an approximate drop of 19,000 people represents a 12% change between 2018 and 2043.

Furthermore, In the event of volatile weather, many older people – including those who are lonely, isolated, ill, living with dementia or reliant on medical equipment - need extra support to access supplies of food, warmth and medicine, and to rebuild damaged homes and possessions. The Scottish National Islands Plan survey 2020 found that only 38% of island residents felt older people could easily access on-island support, such as home care, assisted living or care homes. The consequences of geography are likely to further exacerbate the issues affecting this population group’s adaptive capacity.

Economy

Linked to the above, plans to improve the climate resilient economy in island communities needs to take into account the implications of a predicted shrinking working-age population. The nature of part-time, seasonal or self-employment should be considered when positioning any investment in climate-smart skills in the islands. Engagement through the Carbon Neutral Islands Project also identified availability of affordable housing as a barrier to young families staying and settling on the islands which should be seen in cooperation with addressing any skills gaps.

In terms of access to food and essential items, evidence from the 2021 Poverty in rural Scotland review suggests that the cost of these may be higher in some rural and island areas, and that people may experience additional non-financial barriers to food in island communities linked to dispersed populations, limited food retail, irregular or disrupted transport, and weather-related disruption. This is compounded by the current cost of living crisis. The Adaptation Plan has an objective to strengthen food security and supply chain resilience in the face of the changing climate and must take this into account for island economies.

46% of islanders agree there are job opportunities available in fishing in their local area. Although employment in the fishing fleet is a small percentage of the total Scottish labour force (0.2%), employment in the fishing fleet accounts for a higher percentage of employment in island communities (Shetland: 5%, Orkney: 2%; Na h-Eileanan Siar: 2% and in Argyll and Bute: 1%). Similarly, agriculture on certain islands accounts for a higher percentage of employment in island communities.

40% of islanders agree there are job opportunities available in agriculture in their local area. The Shetland’s agricultural census recorded 1996 people working in Shetland’s agriculture which would make up roughly 15% of the 13,000 jobs recorded by Shetland the year prior^[4].

A research report conducted by RuralExchange in 2022 on the islands of Orkney, Shetland and the Outer Hebrides showed many of the sparsely populated island areas (within the aforementioned islands) are often heavily reliant on agriculture and crofting. The report, however, also noted that there is no ‘prime agricultural land’ in Orkney, Shetland or the Outer Hebrides. The dominant land class in Shetland and the Outer Hebrides is capable for of use as rough grazing. There is a higher percentage of land in Orkney capable of mixed agriculture. The report also identified two relevant weaknesses in their SWOT assessment of the islands’ agricultural economies: a skills gap regarding climate adaptation and commercial profit margins being too low to cover the additional investment (in natural, financial, human and social capital) required by adaptation to climate change, particularly given additional production costs faced on islands. It is also noted as a threat, but the cost of not adapting to climate change will worsen production constraints.

Orkney, Shetland and Outer Hebrides amongst many other islands are not well suited to tree growth due to biophysical conditions. 63% of islanders feel there are no job opportunities in forestry in their local area.

The tourism sector also provides many employment opportunities to certain Island communities. In 2019, tourism in Orkney generated more than £67 million of visitor spend and tourism in Shetland generated more than £35 million of visitor spend. Exact statistics on employment numbers are unavailable however tourism is perceived as a source of job opportunities across the islands (with 82% agreeing or strongly agreeing).

Social & Cultural

The historic environment is an integral part of island communities – both the built heritage and the intangible cultural heritage (ICH) play an important part in shaping a sense of place, pride, and traditions. Scotland’s islands have unique and significant heritage assets, including some with World Heritage status (Heart of Neolithic Orkney & St Kilda). Engagement with the historic environment is marginally higher in island Local Authorities with 39% of residents visiting a historic site in the previous year compared to 35% average across Scotland.

“One of the impacts of the climate crisis is rising sea levels. This is an issue that poses a growing threat to the historic buildings that dot the coastlines of our islands. Extreme weather events are increasing in frequency, and storms and flooding are becoming more violent, causing catastrophic damage to the archaeology that tells the story of those who have lived on these islands over thousands of years.” – National Trust Scotland

There were approximately 57,000 Gaelic speakers in Scotland at the time of the 2022 census. Of these, over half (52.3%) were registered as living in Na h-Eileanan an Iar. Those who speak Gaelic have mixed views on how much are they able to use the language in their community. The Gaelic language, while intangible, is considered by many academics to be a cultural heritage site. Whilst not outlined specifically in the CCRA3 briefing on H11 (Risks to cultural heritage) on which the Adaptation Plan is built, reference is given to the intangible assets of cultural heritage. Scottish Gaelic itself is recognised by UNESCO as “definitely endangered” while the Endangered Languages Project lists Scottish Gaelic as “threatened”.

Most island residents (82%) see themselves as belonging to their local community however they also generally perceive that they have little influence over decisions made by local and national organisations, and more influence over community organisations and community councils.

Potential Barriers & Wider Impacts

The need to construct adaptation measures such as new sea defences or reconstruct buildings and properties affected by the effects of climate change, e.g. flooded houses, may require longer and or more expensive recovery periods on islands.

The difficulties currently experienced by island communities in accessing public services is likely to be exacerbated by an increase in extreme weather events due to the consequences of geography combining with travel disruption. Evidence from the historic school logbooks in the Outer Hebrides shows the impact of island vulnerability to extreme weather in disrupting children’s education^[5].

Most island residents agreed that they could easily access a hospital (84%), a GP (85%), a dentist (62%), or a pharmacy (88%). Only a quarter of island residents felt they could easily access mental health services^[6]. A third of island residents have accessed a health or social care appointment online. Smaller islands often experience greater difficulties in accessing healthcare services as they are often reliant on transporting patients or professionals between the island and other island or mainland communities.

While connectivity across islands has improved in recent years, some areas and islands still have issues with the speed and reliability of internet connections:

• While 96% of island households have access to the internet from home, older residents^[7] report lower levels of access than other age groups, at 92%.
• 65% of island residents agree that their internet connection at home is fast enough to do what they want online.
  • Only 27% of Shetland Outer Isles residents agreed with this statement compared to 66% of Shetland Mainland residents.
  • A significant difference was also noted between the Orkney Outer Isles (45%) and Orkney Mainland (70%).
• 62% of island residents agree that their internet connection at home is reliable, with significantly lower agreement in Shetland Outer Isles (30%) and Orkney Outer Isles (35%).
• Confidence in using the internet for various activities was high, with lowest confidence (52%) in attending health and social care appointments.

Mobile signals vary, with particularly poor reports from Orkney Outer Islands of only 27% having a good signal at home, and 29% in the local area.

The National Islands Plan Survey included questions on frequency of use of island transport as well as perceived reliability of island transport. 58% of islanders agree that ferries to and from the mainland (the most frequently used form of transport for islanders) are reliable however different subregions had significantly different perspectives on reliability (Arran, Bute and the Cumbraes having the lowest agreement at 35%). Island residents significantly differed in their use of inter-island ferries with only 40% agreeing that services are reliable.

52% of islanders agree that their local bus service (on their own or a neighbouring island) is reliable. Residents of Mainland Shetland and Mainland Orkney make most use of flights to and from the mainland, with 58% doing so more than once a year. 45% of island residents would agree that the mainland flights service is reliable. The greatest use of inter-island air services is in Orkney Outer Isles, with 35% of residents using this service more than once a year, followed by Uist and Barra (23%). 22% of island residents would agree that inter-island air services are reliable.

Previous Engagement

The Scottish Government did not undertake an ICIA for the sunsetting Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Plan 2019-2024 (SCCAP2) as the requirement to undertake an Island Communities Impact Assessment came into force on 23 December 2020, after the publication of SCCAP2 in 2019.

The Scottish Government is committed to a just transition to net zero by 2045 and as part of this is developing sectoral Just Transition Plans. These plans are being designed in consultation with groups most affected by the transition to net zero and recognise that those least likely to have contributed to global heating are most likely to be impacted by climate change. A transition to net zero cannot be truly just if there is widespread disadvantage and exposure to climate risk.

Adaptation is a key outcome in Scotland’s Just Transition framework. As part of the engagement on the development of Just Transition Plans, consultancy ARUP facilitated engagement sessions in summer 2023. ARUP place-based engagement focused on areas most susceptible to impacts of climate change in the rural and island sessions. Outputs suggested the need for understanding place-based issues and geographies at the beginning of policy development rather than as an add on issue.

Furthermore, as part of Just Transition Plan engagement covering the built environment, the Poverty Alliance were commissioned by Scottish Government’s Just Transition team to support the engagement of people on low incomes in the development of Scottish Government’s policies to support a just transition to net zero. Participants offered some lived experience of island and rural life and particular challenges faced in terms of skills gaps and difficulty in sourcing materials for adapting homes to a net-zero future.

The Carbon Neutral Islands Project is a Scottish Government commitment that aims to demonstrate the climate-resilience and low carbon potential of islands by 2040. The CNI project will help to deliver key commitments in the National Islands Plan and the National Performance Framework, create island-based jobs, and support islands to adapt to the impacts of climate change. The project aims to align with wider net-zero and decarbonisation efforts and will contribute to the Scottish Government’s statutory target to reach net zero by 2045.

As part of the development of climate action plans for each of the 6 flagship Carbon Neutral Islands, community engagement through Adaptation Scotland was carried out to produce climate impacts maps for each of the islands. This information will help inform the SNAP and future engagement with island communities as part of the public consultation process.

Furthermore, in 2022 the Outer Hebrides Community Planning Partnership (OHCPP) Climate Change Working Group conducted climate impact interviews with multiple OHCPP partner organisations to understand how climate change is affecting organisational priorities across the Outer Hebrides.

In 2021, the Scottish Government worked with the Climate Beacon partnership to run a community engagement pilot in North Uist. The pilot activities used interactive maps to gather local knowledge and lived experience of climate hazards to explore what communities feel is important to protect in a change climate.

Public Consultation

Two questions were posed during the consultation to respondents through Citizen’s Space (Q31 and Q32). An islands-focused public consultation event was held on the island of South Uist to gather the views of an island communities. Further commentary from two local authorities featuring island communities was given via email responses.

Question 31: What, if any, impacts do you think the Adaptation Plan will have on Island communities?

The total number of valid responses to this question was 68.

Concerns for infrastructure resilience on islands

The most common theme was concerns for the resilience of island infrastructure which may be affected by climate change, particularly travel and electricity supply. Respondents raised concerns about the impact of climate change on ferry connectivity, highlighting issues with frequency, reliability, and cost of ferry services. Respondents also discussed the need for maintenance and connectivity upgrades, noting complications with infrastructure upgrades in addition to the maintenance of electrical grids and underwater cables. Additionally, maintaining a steady supply of goods and necessary services was raised as a significant concern which the Adaptation Plan should offer responses to.

“Island communities may face challenges in maintaining and upgrading critical infrastructure, such as transportation networks, utilities, and communication systems, in the face of climate change impacts. The Adaptation Plan may need to prioritise investments in climate-resilient infrastructure and services that can withstand extreme weather events and environmental hazards, while also ensuring equitable access for all residents.” – (Individual)

“It remains to be seen how the ferries currently on order will affect the situation. Lessons could be taken from solutions already enacted in neighbouring countries, especially Norway and the Faroes. Their solution (tunnels, bridges, sophisticated modern ferries) should be the way forward but they depend on significant public investment.” – (Individual)

Challenges to livelihood of Island communities

Another common theme was economic challenges affecting the livelihoods of Island communities as a result of climate change. Respondents discussed the impacts of increased costs for island communities, such as higher expenses for shipping goods from the mainland as a consequence of supply chain disruptions caused by changing climate patterns such as extreme weather. They also highlighted the potential effects on their livelihoods, noting changes such as increased travel costs and increased living costs as a consequence of reduced consumer choice. This was understood to limit opportunities for islanders and negatively impact their quality of life.

“Energy cost increases will increase the cost of transport, food, livestock feed and all other imports; heating and modes of transport will be un-affordable to many Islanders; Restrictions on livestock farming and other activities associated with CO₂ reduction will severely impact if not destroy the bedrock of island economies; Tourism, often central to island economies, will be reduced.” – (Individual)

Impact of extreme weather on Island communities

A further theme was the direct impact of extreme weather events on Island communities. Respondents expressed concerns about the impact of rising sea levels on Island communities, particularly the consequences for coastal erosion, coastal infrastructure, and buildings close to shores. Calls were made for the Plan to address these challenges directly and proactively.

“Climate change is likely to have more direct impacts on these communities through storm damage to buildings, land and infrastructure, which the adaptation plan will need to address.” – (Individual)

Community empowerment and self-reliance

Another common theme was the potential positive impact of the Adaptation Plan on Island communities’ sense of community empowerment and self-reliance. Some respondents discussed how adaptation measures would empower communities by fostering pride and ownership of local strategies and resources. Respondents highlighted that local residents’ needs could be considered more effectively if community cohesion was strengthened throughout the adaptation process.

“Islands have an advantage in that with smaller numbers in the community, they can formulate a plan which everyone can benefit from.” – (Individual)

“From [what] I have observed, island communities are more likely to care and/or respond, perhaps because they are more mutually concerned and enjoy an enhanced sense of community.” – (Organisation)

Further themes included broader negative views, often without specification of anticipated impacts of the Plan on Island communities. Other respondents expressed generally positive views of expected impacts without further specifying examples or impacts.

Question 32: What, if any, measures could be taken to strengthen any positive impacts or lessen any negative impacts of the draft Adaptation Plan on Island communities?

The total number of valid responses to this question was 47.

Need for further infrastructure investment

The most frequent theme was the need for further investment into infrastructure to strengthen positive impacts or lessen negative impacts of the draft Adaptation Plan on Island communities. Respondents expressed the need for improved and fuel-efficient ferry services, including investments into boats and ports, to reduce cancellations and delays during extreme weather events. In particular, respondents stressed the importance of future-proofing ports, roads, airfields, grids and networks to meet current demands as well as preparing for future needs.

“Improved infrastructure in terms of smaller and more fuel efficient ferries. Significantly improved National Grid connectivity for investment in alternative sources of energy and use for their own local schemes.” – (Organisation)

“Invest in climate-resilient infrastructure and prioritise maintenance to ensure reliable services during extreme weather events.” – (Organisation)

Additional engagement and consultation with Island communities

Another common theme was the importance of further engagement and consultation with Island communities to assess any positive or negative impacts of the draft Adaptation Plan. Respondents highlighted the need for more dialogue with Island residents during the development and implementation of the Plan in order to increase its chance of equitable success. Additionally, respondents discussed opportunities for empowerment and capacity building, such as providing resources to train local residents in necessary and in-demand skills, such as renewable technologies.

“In developing the final SNAP there must be in-depth engagement with island communities to understand what they need and how the plan can support those needs. Engagement with communities should not end at the point of publication but be ongoing. To ensure that the plan is workable for island communities, regular discussion should take place to identify any negative impacts and how these can be resolved.” – (Organisation)

“Build the capacity of island communities to understand, assess, and respond to climate change impacts effectively. Provide training, technical assistance, and resources to enhance local knowledge, skills, and adaptive capacity.” – (Individual)

Financial support to strengthen positive impacts of Adaptation Plan

One frequently discussed theme was the provision of financial support to strengthen positive impacts of the Plan on Island communities. Respondents highlighted the need for grants, subsidies, and funding opportunities to support Island communities with climate-friendly adaptations. Examples mentioned included subsidised travel for islanders and financial support for necessary adaptation measures.

“Providing dedicated funding and technical support for island-specific adaptation projects, alongside ensuring strong community involvement in decision-making, can mitigate potential negative impacts and leverage local knowledge for effective resilience-building.” – (Individual)

Tailored adaptation and place-based resilience plans

Another frequent theme related to tailored, local and place-based adaptation and resilience plans, encompassing island-specific tailored strategies and plans. Respondents expressed a preference for the development of climate-resilient infrastructure, specific to their local context. Suggestions were made that carrying out vulnerability and needs assessments could help with tailoring plans to local contexts and reduce the risk of costly replacements of unsuitable or insufficiently adaptable infrastructure in the future.

“Develop adaptation strategies that are specifically tailored to the unique vulnerabilities, strengths, and priorities of island communities. This may involve conducting comprehensive vulnerability assessments, engaging local stakeholders, and co-designing adaptation measures that address the specific climate change risks and challenges faced by island communities.” – (Individual)

Stakeholders

The Adaptation Plan covers an incredibly broad cross-cutting environment and landscape across Scotland which in turn means it relies on many different delivery partners. Some of the key stakeholders identified include but are not limited to:

• Scottish Government including the Islands Team and Carbon Neutral Islands project (Community Energy Scotland)
• Island Community Planning Partnership
• NatureScot
• Historic Environment Scotland
• Transport Scotland
• NHS Scotland
• Local Health Boards
• The Care Inspectorate
• Local Authorities
• Skills Development Scotland
• Housing Associations
• Community councils
• Other groups and organisations who may wish to comment on this assessment and the draft version of the Adaptation Plan.