Climate change - Scottish National Adaptation Plan 2024-2029: joint equalities impact assessment and Fairer Scotland Duty assessment

Collecting information

This section explores the evidence available about the needs of relevant population groups. A literature review exploring the impacts of climate change on different groups is succeeded by and the results of the consultation on the draft the Adaptation Plan.

Literature Review

Demographic information on the population of Scotland

In the 2022 Census, Scotland’s population had the following demographic features:

• People aged 65 and over made up 20.1% of the population and 15.3% of the population were under the age of 15.
• The population was made up of 51.4% females and 48.6% males.
• 4.0% of people aged 16 and over identified with a sexual orientation other than “straight/heterosexual”^[2].
• 0.44% of people aged 16 and over identified as trans or having a trans history^[3].
• For the first time in Scotland’s Census, the majority of people (51.1%) said they had no religion. The next largest religious groups were ‘Church of Scotland’ (20.4%), ‘Roman Catholic’ (13.3%), ‘Other Christian’ (5.1%), and ‘Muslim’ (2.2%).
• The percentage of people in Scotland with a minority ethnic background was 12.9%.^[4]
• 2.5% of people aged three and over had some skills in Gaelic. In Na h-Eileanan Siar the majority had some Gaelic skills (57.2%). This was far higher than the next highest council areas, Highland (8.1%) and Argyll and Bute (6.2%).

In the 2011 census, Scotland’s population had the following demographic features:^[5]

• 45.4% of the population were married or in a civil partnership.
• 20% of the population identified as having a long-term health problem or disability.

During the period from 1 April 2022 to 31 March 2023, the homeless population^[6] in Scotland was made up of the following demographic features:

• 32,242 households were assessed as homeless (intentional or unintentional). This was made up of 36,848 adults and 16,263 children.
• The homeless population was younger than the overall Scottish population. 62% of households assessed as homeless were aged 25 to 49.
• Rough sleeping is most common amongst 35 to 64 year olds.
• Homeless households are more likely to be single adult or single parent compared to overall population. 66% of homeless households were made up of a single person and 29% contained children.
• 84% of homeless households had white ethnicity.
• 51% of homeless households had at least one support need.

Climate Change and Adaptation Impacts on Protected Characteristics

The risks and negative impacts of climate change on groups with certain protected characteristics that the plan will seek to address are outlined below.

Age

There is evidence supporting the conclusion that older people are more at risk of heat-related mortality. One study found a 2–5% increase in all-cause mortality in the elderly for every 1°C increase in the average daily outdoor temperature during the warm summer period, and a 1-2% increase in mortality for a 1 °C fall in temperature during cold periods. This was a meta-analysis looking at studies from around the world, but can also be applied to a temperate environment.

Another potential age group at increased risk from heat-related mortality is infants, with several studies finding an association between high temperatures and Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS). This is not linked to climate change specifically, but if climate change increases average temperatures then it could increase the risk of SIDS, if all other factors are held constant. During instances of extreme weather, many older people – including those who are lonely, isolated, ill, living with dementia or reliant on medical equipment – need extra support to access supplies of food, warmth and medicine, and to rebuild damaged homes and possessions.

Furthermore, older people are less likely to perceive climate change as an urgent problem. This risk perception is linked to lower levels of flooding preparedness in communities. In 2022, adults aged 75 and over in the UK were the least likely to state that they believed climate change to be an immediate and urgent problem, compared to other age groups .

Younger and older people (age 16-29 and 60+) are more likely to use the bus and less likely to use privately owned cars which means that they may be more affected by disruptions to the public transport system during storms or hot weather.

In 2017, the vast majority of people receiving social care at home (77%) were aged 65 years old and over. Due to their increased representation in this group of people, disruption to home social care services may be more likely to affect this age group.

On 31 March 2023, there were an estimated 34,365 residents in care homes for adults in Scotland. Of these residents, 31,459 (92%) were living in care homes for older people, where the vast majority of residents were aged 65 years and over. Due to their increased representation in this group of people, disruption to social care provided for residents in care homes may be more likely to affect this age group.

Disability

There is strong evidence that people with pre-existing conditions are more at risk of heat-related mortality. Pre-existing health conditions are also recognised as factors that increase the risk of adverse outcomes from flood events.

Adults with a long-term illness or disability are less likely to view climate change as an immediate and urgent problem than those without. This risk perception is linked to lower levels of flooding preparedness in communities.

Adverse weather, made more likely by climate change, will cause disruption to local, national and international supply chains. Resilience may be decreased for some members of this protected group reliant on prescriptions and global and national medical supply chains.

Disabled adults are slightly more likely to use the bus than those who are not disabled which could mean that they may be more affected by climate-related disruptions to the bus system. Disabled adults were less likely to use the train. Disabled adults may also face more barriers in using modes of active travel such as walking and cycling.

Households with a disabled person are substantially more likely to experience food insecurity than those without. One of the contributing factors to this is physical access to food; in the event of disruption to food supply chains due to climate change impacts this may increase (i.e. increased difficulty in travelling to different locations to source needed supplies relating to disability).

53.6% of households with at least one member with a disability or long-standing illness that also require accessibility adaptations to make it easier for all members of the household to go about their daily activities have self-reported requiring one or more additional accessibility adaptations which they do not already have (equating to around 80,000 households). This need for accessibility adaptations may overlap or conflict with households receiving or requiring climate resilient adaptation measures.

People with disabilities or pre-existing health conditions have been identified as being more likely to be at risk of energy poverty. People in these groups are likely to have greater ‘energy needs’. These can include a requirement to heat the home for longer hours and at a higher temperature to maintain comfort and an increased dependence on electricity to power medical equipment or other devices crucial to their well-being. Reliance on electricity for refrigeration of insulin is one such example. These increased needs can both lead to greater energy costs and increased vulnerability to interruptions to power supply. Increased financial vulnerability as a result of high fuel costs could also impact on households ability to meet the financial costs of other adaptation measures.

Evidence from 2017 indicates 33% of care at home clients had physical disabilities. This higher need for social care in the home presents a higher risk for disabled people in the event of climate-related disruption to social care.

The 2021 Scottish Household Survey showed half of adults (51%) visited their nearest area of green or blue space every day or several times a week. Frequency of visits was lower amongst disabled people or those who reported poorer general health. Adults who reported their health to be bad or very bad were less likely to visit their nearest green or blue space every day or several times a week (30%) than those who reported their general health to be good or very good (54%). The most frequent visiting was also lower amongst disabled people (40%) compared to non-disabled people (54%).

Pregnancy & Maternity

There is global evidence that temperature extremes adversely impact birth outcomes, including, but not limited to: changes in length of gestation, birth weight, stillbirth, and neonatal stress in unusually hot temperature exposures. No research specific to Scotland was found.

Exposure to green space during pregnancy has been associated with improved fetal growth and reduced risk of pregnancy complications such as pregnancy-induced hypertensive disorders. No research specific to Scotland was found.

Disruption to the availability or access to certain foods or nutrition during pregnancy may increase the occurrence of inadequate maternal nutrition. Poor maternal and child health outcomes, particularly poor birth outcomes, are linked to inadequate maternal nutrition during conception, during pregnancy and after delivery. No research specific to Scotland was found.

Households with a baby under one are also at higher risk of poverty. In Scotland, a third (34%) of children in households with a child under one were in relative poverty in 2018-21. This compares to 24% of children overall. Households living on lower incomes are at higher risk of being more vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

Race

On average, ethnic minority workers in Scotland earn less than white workers. Low-income groups often include a disproportionate number of people from ethnic minority communities which is a risk factor for potentially being more vulnerable to the harmful impacts of climate change.

The most socially vulnerable of all ethnicities experience systemic flood disadvantage (experiencing risk that is greater than the average), with Black, African and Caribbean ethnic groups particularly disadvantaged. Flood disadvantage exists across all ethnicities, but Black and other minority ethnic groups are more likely to have a lower income and more likely to live in rented accommodation. These two factors lead to significantly lower levels of flood insurance and higher levels of disadvantage.

In terms of the make-up of the future economy and how this might impact/be impacted by climate change, it is important that growth sectors are as diverse and flexible as possible. ‘Environment professionals’, ‘Environment and conservation associate professionals’, ‘Fishing and other elementary agriculture occupations’, and ‘Environmental health professionals’ are among the bottom 12 of the least racially diverse professions in the UK, with just 4.81% identifying as Black, Asian or from other minority ethnic groups compared to 12.64% across all UK professions. No research specific to professions in Scotland was found.

Increased ethnic/cultural diversity has been shown to lead to greater profitability and reduced economic loss in the private sector. Encouraging an increase in ethnic/cultural diversity in Climate Smart Workforce professions could potentially maximise economic benefits of the Plan.

Increasing the diversity of the Heat Network sector (an important component of a future Climate Smart Workforce) was found to be important for increasing the pool of talent available to employers and meeting future recruitment needs in the UK. It is also important for distributing the opportunities associated with climate adaptation more equally and ensuring a just transition. No research specific to Scotland was found.

Sex

The gender pay gap for all employees in Scotland in 2023 was 8.7 per cent. This implies that women are more likely to be living on a lower income which is a risk factor for potentially being more vulnerable to the harmful impacts of climate change. This intersectional risk is further explored as part of the Fairer Scotland Duty Impact Assessment.

There is some evidence to suggest that women have different transport needs to men. Women are more likely to be the primary care givers in their families, and to be single parents. These caring responsibilities require women to make multiple short journeys in a day and they are reliant on resilient, reliable transport to make these journeys. Unreliable public transport can substantially reduce women’s access to paid employment, education, retail options, social activities as well as essential services such as welfare services, hospitals and GP surgeries (both for themselves and those they care for). This is particularly the case for women from lower income families, who are more likely to use public transport, and especially buses, compared to higher income households.

There is some evidence to suggest female farmers are more likely to see the business benefits of environmentally sustainable farming practices. In 2017, women were very under-represented amongst the elected leadership of national-level farming organisations. The cultural practice of passing on large farms intact to one son was the single biggest barrier to women’s entry into agriculture. 20% of women reported that they had no role in both day-to-day decision-making and major decisions on their farms. Some 53% would have liked a bigger role in decision making. Female farmer’s daily lives are very busy often juggling farm work, childcare, domestic roles and off farm employment. This research found the continued domestic and childcare responsibilities are often not equally shared with their male spouses. The Scottish Agricultural Census 2021 shows that 40% of all working occupiers and spouses on Scottish Farms are female, and 60% are male.

Sexual orientation

Gay men are somewhat more likely to experience poverty than heterosexual men which is a risk factor for potentially being more vulnerable to the harmful impacts of climate change. This intersectional risk is explored as part of the socio-economic considerations below.

Gender Reassignment

In 2013, the Scottish Government Equality Outcome Evidence Review, noting severe limitations in data size, highlighted evidence demonstrating that transgender people were more likely to be living on lower incomes which is a risk factor for potentially being more vulnerable to the harmful impacts of climate change. This is a further intersectional risk to be explored further in future, particularly noting the data limitations on this protected characteristic.

Religion or belief

No specific research has been identified showing the impact of climate adaptation or maladaptation on different religions in Scotland or the wider UK.

Marriage and Civil Partnership

In respect of this protected characteristic, a body subject to the Public Sector Equality Duty (which includes Scottish Government) only needs to comply with the first need of the duty (to eliminate discrimination, harassment, victimisation and any other conduct that is prohibited by or under the Equality Act 2010) and only in relation to work. This is because the parts of the Act covering services and public functions, premises, education etc. do not apply to that protected characteristic. Equality impact assessment within the Scottish Government does not require assessment against the protected characteristic of Marriage and Civil Partnership unless the policy or practice relates to work, for example HR policies and practices.

Climate Change and Adaptation Impacts on Socio-economic disadvantage

Increased exposure to heat risks

UK-based evidence highlights that people who live in poorly constructed homes in ‘urban heat islands’, are on low incomes and who are disconnected from social networks are more likely to be vulnerable to high temperatures. Any large scale increase in future reliance on mechanical cooling would potentially increase the inequality in heat risks (as currently seen in the US). Low income households may be unable to afford retrofitting measures, or installation and maintenance costs associated with space cooling measures to reduce heat exposure.

Greenspace access and Air Quality

A review of access to green space by Public Health England found that people from lower income households access green space less and live in less green neighborhoods compared to wealthier groups.

Air pollution exposure in Scotland is often worse in inner city deprived areas than elsewhere. Air pollution causes seven million premature deaths every year with air pollution exposure as one of the known asthma triggers. Research has shown that a higher frequency of visits to green space has reduced use of prescription drugs including asthma.

Private water supplies

For private water supply owners, the issues around water quality (such as E.coli contamination) often occur more regularly and can be of more immediate concern to users than the risk of water scarcity from climate change impacts such as heavy rain or drought. Many private water supply owners do not engage with local authorities, due to the fear that they will identify costly repairs and upgrades or issue enforcement notices if the repairs are not carried out. Low-income private water supply owners are more likely to fear unexpected costs they cannot meet with regards to water treatment and therefore are the least likely to engage with their local authority for support and advice. The uncertainty around the total cost of connecting to mains water can make the possibility of connection prohibitive for many private supply communities.

Food insecurity and malnutrition

9% of adults in Scotland in 2021 experienced food insecurity in the previous 12 months. For those already living in food insecurity and with inadequate nutrition, the risks of a changing climate and increasing numbers of climate shocks impacting the global food supply chain system, it is reasonable to predict possible food shortages or food price spikes which may exacerbate these issues. In 2022, extreme weather along with the cost of energy inputs accounted for the majority of the UK’s rise in food prices. If future climate-related food shocks occur, it is likely that low-income families will be the most affected.

Flood disadvantage

One of the main social factors affecting vulnerability to flooding is related to people’s financial situation. People on low incomes living in areas exposed to flooding may not be able to afford property level protection (PLP) measures. They are also less likely to have home contents insurance. They can be more economically vulnerable to the impacts of flooding to people with higher incomes due to lower financial reserves or access to credit to replace lost possessions or make necessary repairs as well as to pay for temporary housing and the increased transport costs associated with relocation of evacuation.

Evidence recommends that post-flood adaptation responses for vulnerable people should take into consideration the increased likelihood of repeat flooding in the long term and the likely slower recovery time of financially vulnerable people. Also, lower skilled workers and those not in work were found to have lower levels of awareness of being exposed to flooding than those in higher socio-economic groups. Poverty rates tend to be higher among renters than homeowners, with tenants in social housing tending to belong to the lowest income groups. Tenants tend to have fewer resources to invest in PLP measures and either require the permission of property owners and/or building managers to implement them. Tenants may also be reluctant to fully or partly contribute to costs or to suffer the associated disruption of implementing flood resistance or resilience measures when they are living in a property that does not belong to them.

The 2007 Scottish Household Survey found that 56% of local authority tenants and 50% of housing association, cooperative or private tenants had contents insurance, compared to 98% of owner-occupiers with a mortgage. Buildings insurance is usually the responsibility of the owner, thus tenants are reliant on their landlord to ensure they live in a building which is appropriately insured. As it is the occupiers who may bear most of the cost of flood damage, landlords are less motivated to invest in property-level resilience measures.

Finally, private tenants may have less local knowledge as they tend to have shorter length of residence in an area compared to owner occupiers. People living in areas with a high turnover of population may be less aware of the likelihood of being affected by floods, how to respond and where to seek support. They may also lack social connections to friends and neighbours in the local community who can improve knowledge of the local area and provide social support and a response network. As a result, those without family and friends within their local area, especially the lower income groups, are the most likely to need to use public shelters in the event of, for example, a flood-related evacuation. Conversely, where social networks are relatively well-established there is evidence of a better response to emergency situations and quicker recovery..

Consultation Responses

Two questions were posed during the consultation to respondents through Citizen’s Space (Q25 and Q26). Further commentary relating to vulnerable groups was given via consultation workshops and email responses.

Question 25: What, if any, impacts do you think this Adaptation Plan will have on groups/individuals who share protected characteristics?’

The total number of valid responses to this question was 111.

Impacts on groups sharing protected characteristics

The most frequently mentioned theme was the view that the Adaptation Plan will have limited or no impacts on groups/individuals who share protected characteristics. Respondents emphasised that the proposed Adaptation Plan would have the same consequences on individuals regardless of whether they have protected characteristics.

“Individuals and groups of people with Protected Characteristics are unlikely to be impacted in any way more that the residual population.” – (Organisation)

Highlighting a different viewpoint, another set of respondents raised a theme recognising the wide variety of social and health-related vulnerabilities that merit consideration in adaptation planning. Respondents emphasised that certain groups would be disproportionately vulnerable to climate change due to pre-existing social inequalities and therefore, the Plan should ensure adaptation measures address their specific needs through the delivery of public services. Respondents expressed particular concerns about the impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing. They called for the Plan to consider health impacts and include interventions to protect vulnerable populations.

“Climate change is known to amplify existing inequalities experienced by people and groups within our communities. Therefore, we support additional consideration being given to those groups and individuals who share protected characteristics.” – (Organisation)

Financial impacts and access to support resources

An additional frequent theme was the perceived financial impact of the Plan alongside access to support resources. Respondents expressed concerns about the economic impact of adaptation measures, including potential financial burdens. Particularly, this included concerns about the barriers faced by marginalised communities in accessing adaptation funding, infrastructures, information, and decision-making processes. They recognised that broader systems of structural inequalities may hinder certain groups from effectively adapting to changes.

“I think those with disabilities and those from ethnic minorities will have a harder time adapting to the changes. Primarily I think this will be a financial barrier, such as with disabled people who are more likely to be unemployed and therefore won’t have the money to make these changes, or for those people who are an ethnic minority, there will be a huge wealth gap from decades of racism which caused a huge wealth disparity.” – (Individual)

Additional themes included political considerations such as recognising the importance of good communication with communities to build understanding of need for adaptation measures, alongside scepticism about political priorities in favour of the interests of marginalised groups. Some respondents also expressed scepticism towards the notion of climate change itself.

Question 26: In respect to protected characteristics, what, if any, measures could be taken to strengthen any positive impacts or lessen any negative impacts of the draft Adaptation Plan?

The total number of valid responses to this question was 69.

Engagement with groups/individuals from protected characteristics

The most common theme was the importance of further engagement and communication with groups/individuals sharing protected characteristics. Respondents called for greater community engagement, emphasising the importance of collecting information on the lived experience of individuals and groups with protected characteristics and using these insights to collaboratively design adaptation measures. They also proposed increased collaboration with relevant organisations, businesses, and institutions such as universities.

“A focus on gathering insights about the lived experience of people with protected characteristics, and co-designing adaptation measures based on this, would be the most effective way to lessen negative impacts of the Adaptation Plan.” – (Organisation)

No additional measures to mitigate negative impacts of Adaptation Plan

Another common theme was the view that no additional measures should be taken to strengthen any positive impacts or lessen any negative impacts of the draft Adaptation Plan. This viewpoint was often expressed alongside arguments against the overall implementation of the Plan, expressing concerns about its financial cost. Other respondents suggested tackling the overarching systems of structural inequality, beyond the focus on specific measures and the Plan itself.

Support for groups/individuals sharing protected characteristics

A frequent theme was improving policy development and support measures for groups/individuals sharing protected characteristics who are most vulnerable to climate change impacts. Respondents recommended specific measures such as financial support and greater information provision for individuals and groups sharing protected characteristics. They also called for the broader integration of equality and diversity measures across all aspects of the Adaptation Plan including policy development and program design.

“Financial considerations in particular to those that fall below the national average income. More targeted support for those that need help with housing and energy costs. They are inexplicably linked poor housing insulation and inefficient heating systems need serious upgrading.” – (Individual)

“In line with just transition outcomes, the plan should consider wider equality and human rights across protected characteristics and identify risks and planning for long-term resilience against climate risks.” – (Organisation)

Summary of views from consultation workshops and email responses

The following section summarises the key themes raised by participants of 16 public consultation workshops, held by the Scottish Government alongside the written consultation analysed above. All workshops took place during the consultation period from 31 January until 24 April 2024. These events were tailored to varying audiences following two distinct purposes – either focussing on the lived and local experiences of members of the public with relation to climate change in Scotland, or on the technical policy detail of the the Adaptation Plan involving stakeholders with interests across the Plan’s outcomes. The following analysis also synthesises views from 12 email responses submitted by stakeholders to the consultation inbox.

Vulnerable groups

The specific barriers and disproportionate impacts faced by vulnerable groups as a result of climate change were discussed across public and technical workshops. Participants discussed that vulnerable individuals and groups faced a disproportionate burden from climate change impacts, for example the elderly, children, disabled people and those from socio-economically disadvantaged backgrounds. These individuals and groups were also seen as facing particular barriers to accessing resources such as information, financial aid, and physical support.

The importance of equitable climate adaptation was highlighted particularly across public workshops, with a focus on ensuring that groups receive the necessary support. For example, it was considered crucial to account for additional costs faced by vulnerable groups, leading to calls for grants and subsidised schemes to adopt climate adaptations and mitigation. In addition, improvements to public services were recommended by attendees of public workshops, citing the state of healthcare, education, social care and infrastructure. For example, concerns were raised about the shortage of care workers for the elderly who would struggle to cope with impacts of flooding and extreme heat.

“Older people with disabilities also more […] complex to adapt, and to evacuate and support in extreme weather events, which means that additional support is required to ensure they are treated equitably in engagements and the transition.”

“Many healthcare services are not able to meet the needs of disabled people due to inflexibility and/or inaccessibility.”