Scottish prison population projections: December 2024

Prison population projections: December 2024

This is the sixth report published since 1st June 2023 on the Scottish Government modelling of the level of the prison population in Scotland. It presents short term prison population projections for the six-month period from November 2024 to April 2025[1]. They have been produced using ‘microsimulation’ scenario modelling, which simulates prison arrivals and departures, to estimate the number of individuals in prison on a particular date in the future. The first issue of the Scottish prison population projections[2] provided a detailed overview of the modelling technique used.

The projections are produced to help inform high level decision making, planning and policy development. As they do not take account of the complexity of the prison population, they are not intended for use in the day-to-day management of those in prison.

Developments since the last projection publication

The last set of projections were published in October 2024, following the Emergency Release (ER)[3] of some short-term prisoners in June and July 2024. ER led directly to 477 individuals departing early and the prison population reduced to 7,876 on 20th July (the lowest level). Afterwards it increased rapidly, before reaching 8,260 on 6th December[4]. Legislation to help reduce the high prison population was passed by the Scottish Parliament on 26th November 2024. The Prisoners (Early Release) (Scotland) Bill will change the release point for some offenders serving sentences of less than four years from 50% of their sentence to 40%. There will be no change to the release point for prisoners serving sentences for domestic abuse or sexual offences. The change could be implemented from February 2025 for some prisoners already serving short-term sentences[5]. When implemented, the measures are expected to reduce the sentenced population by around 5%[6]. However, it should be noted that these prison population projections do not include the effects of the Bill (although it has been passed, Royal Assent is required for it to become an Act); rather they indicate what the population could be if recent trends were to continue. The next issue of these projections will include reporting on the expected impact of the bill.