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Publication - Statistics

Scottish prison population projections: December 2024

Published
17 December 2024
Directorate
Justice Directorate, +1 more … Safer Communities Directorate
Topic
Law and order

This report presents short-term Scottish prison population projections for the six month period from November 2024 to April 2025.

Supporting documents

Key Points

 

On 6th December 2024, the overall prison population in Scotland was 8,260, and the remand and sentenced populations were 2,114 and 6,146, respectively. The latest prison population projection modelling indicates:

  • it is likely[1] that the overall prison population will increase between 1st November 2024 and 30th April 2025. The average daily prison population could be between 7,950 and 8,900 in April 2025. However, it should be noted that this estimate does not account for the expected reduction to the population from implementation of the Bill passed on 26th November[2].
  • It is likely that the remand population will be at a similar level in April 2025 to what it was in November 2024 (although it is expected to fluctuate during December/January due to season effects). The average daily remand population could be between 1,350 and 2,800 in April 2025.
  • it is highly likely that the sentenced population will increase between 1st November 2024 and 30th April 2025. The average daily sentenced population could be between 6,000 and 6,750 in April 2025.

 

If the impact of the bill were realised then it is expected that the sentenced population would reduce by between 260 and 390[3]. A range is reported because there is uncertainty in the prison population projections over the next six months due to several factors, including variability in court demand, throughput and sentenced departures. There is additional uncertainty around the turn of the year when the population historically has tended to fluctuate rapidly during the months of December and January[4].

 

 

[1] For more information refer to the Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment (PHIA) framework of language for discussing probabilities, Page 5, Epidemiology Modelling Review Group: consensus statement on COVID-19 (publishing.service.gov.uk).

[4] Seasonal trends for the prison population since the COVID-19 pandemic indicate some very general similarities at the turn of the year. The sentenced population around late November/early December tends to increase, then between Christmas and the first week of January steeply decrease. The remand population tends to reduce from late November/early December, then it tends to increase sharply before stabilising between Christmas and New Year. The total population tends to fall slightly in late November/early December, then falls more sharply in late December before recovering somewhat by early February.

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