Scottish prison population projections: December 2024

Overview of Scottish Prison Population and Court Demand Trends

 

Figure 1 shows there have been substantial fluctuations in the total and sentenced populations since 2020.

 

Figure 1. Prison population (total, remand and sentenced), between 26th March 2020 and 1st November 2024[1].

 

Total population

As presented in Figure 1, the prison population fluctuated within a range between 7,350 and 7,650 from September 2020 until late 2022. In 2023 the population grew strongly and has remained above 7,800 since mid-July 2023. As expected, the population temporarily fell during December 2023/January 2024 due to seasonal effects. It then increased rapidly in early 2024, peaking at 8,361 on 14th May. The Scottish Parliament approved the Emergency Release (ER) of certain short-term prisoners to reduce pressure on the estate on 12th June. ER[2] led directly to 477 individuals departing earlier between 26th June and 25th July 2024 and the population reduced to 7,876 on 20th July (the lowest level). Afterwards it increased, reaching 8,260 on 6th December[3].

 

Remand population

The remand population (see Figure 1) increased from the beginning of 2022, reaching a peak of 2,292 on 1st February 2022, then typically decreased gradually during the rest of the year. In 2023 the remand population increased strongly throughout April and May, peaking at 2,312 on 30th May. From August to December 2023 the remand population generally decreased (it was 2,081 on 1st January 2024). In early 2024 it increased again, reaching a peak of 2,360 on 14th May 2024. It has decreased slightly since then, and was 2,114 on 6th December. The outlook for the remand population during early 2025 is uncertain; but it may be expected to increase if the seasonal trends observed in recent years are repeated.

 

Sentenced population

The sentenced population decreased slightly during 2022, from around 5,350 in January to around 5,250 in December. In contrast, during 2023 the sentenced population increased substantially, reaching a peak of almost 5,900 near the end of the year. The sentenced population then reduced slightly at the end of December 2023 before increasing again until it reached 6,056 on 21st June 2024[4]. Due to ER[5] the sentenced population reduced to 5,691 on 20th July but rose again, reaching 6,146 on 6th December 2024.

 

 

Remand Arrivals and Sentenced Departures

The prison population varies according to the volume and composition of the inflows and outflows to/from the remand and sentenced populations. The focus tends to be on remand arrivals and sentenced departures because they are most important for the inflows and outflows, respectively, from the overall prison population. Figure 2 shows monthly remand arrivals from April 2020 to November 2024. Remand arrivals increased month on month for each successive month from January to May 2024. Average monthly remand arrivals between February and July 2024 were 830.

If seasonal trends are realised, it is expected that monthly remand arrivals will increase during early 2025, therefore in the modelling remand arrivals for February to April 2025 are sampled from the six-month period from February to July 2024. During the last 12 months the three-month period with the lowest remand arrivals (excluding December due to seasonal effects) was September to November 2024, with an average of around 710 remand arrivals per month. It is likely that when the projections are updated to cover Autumn 2025, they will use remand arrivals sampled from Autumn 2024.

 

Figure 2. Remand Arrivals and Sentenced Departures per month between April 2020 and November 2024.

 

Following ER in June/July, sentenced departures (see Figure 2) were temporarily reduced such that departures in August and September 2024 were the lowest since October 2023 (if excluding January 2024 due to seasonal disruption).

 

The sentenced prison population from March 2020 to November 2024, sub-divided by sentence length is shown in Figure 3 below. All population groups tended to increase between 1st January 2023 and June 2024. It is shown that the short-term prison population decreased during the ER period in June/July 2024 but increased strongly from the beginning of August. The population serving overall sentences of more than four years, as well as those serving Orders of Lifelong Restriction, have continually increased over several years and now exceed pre-pandemic levels. The population serving life sentences has declined gradually since 2020.

 

Figure 3. Prison populations by overall sentence, 26th March 2020 to 1st November 2024[6].

 

The growth in the total prison population since the beginning of 2023 was driven by both remand and sentenced arrivals to custody. The remand population is influenced by the level of new cases registered and cases concluded in Scottish Courts[7]. Elevated court throughput (case conclusions) can lead to increased flow into the sentenced population. The Scottish Courts and Tribunals Service (SCTS) frequently publish information on the level of registrations and conclusions across all courts[8].

 

Some court recovery programme resources were switched from summary to solemn procedure on 1st April 2023, resulting in 2 additional High Court and 6 additional Sheriff Solemn trial courts[9], but 10 fewer Sheriff Court Summary trial courts. The charts in Figures 4 to 9 below show registrations and conclusions in recent years for High Court, Sheriff Court Solemn and Sheriff Court Summary. Figure 4 shows the number of High Court indictment registrations over the last decade from 2014/15 Q1 (covering April to June 2014) to 2024/25 Q2 (covering July to September 2024)[10]. The level of very serious criminal cases registered has increased this year such that the number of High Court indictments registered in the first six months of 2024/25 (531) was 25% higher than during the first six months of 2023/24 (425). In contrast, as shown in figure 5, High Court conclusions during the first half of 2024/25 (490) were around 5% less than during the same period in 2023/24 (518). In the latest SCTS criminal court modelling[11], it is assumed that High Court indictments will remain elevated, at around 1,100 per year for the next few years.

 

Sheriff Solemn Indictment registrations (see Figure 6) in the first six months of 2024/25 (3,534) were around 7% lower than during the same period in 2023/24 (3,780). As shown in figure 7, conclusions in the first six months of 2024/25 (3,877) were around 4% lower than during the first six months of 2023/24 (4,053). Sheriff Solemn imprisonment disposals are likely to continue to be elevated compared to prior to the introduction of additional solemn courts in April 2023; for example, in the first quarter of 2024/25 (1,645) there were 13% more imprisonments than during the same period in 2022/23 (1,460)[12].

 

Figure 4. High Court Indictments registered[13].

 

Figure 5. High Court Indictments concluded[14].

 

Figure 6. Sheriff Court Solemn Indictments registered[15].

 

Figure 7. Sheriff Court Solemn Indictments concluded[16].

 

 

The level of complaints registered in Sheriff Summary Courts across Q1 and Q2 2024/25 (32,296) was only around 1% less than during same period during 2023/24 (32,646) (see Figure 8) and hence it was amongst the highest since the first half of 2019/20. Sheriff Court summary conclusions in the first 6 months of 2024/25 were around 14% higher than during the first six months of 2023/24 (see Figure 9). Sheriff Summary imprisonment disposals were almost a third higher in Q1 2024/25 (3,155) than in Q1 2023/24 (2,374)[17]. Therefore, despite the reduction in Sheriff Summary courts from April 2023, the trend of increasing numbers of imprisonment disposals which began in Q1 2022-23 has continued, such that Sheriff Summary imprisonment disposals are around pre-pandemic levels.

 

Figure 8. Sheriff Court Summary complaints registered[18].

 

Figure 9. Sheriff Court Summary complaints concluded[19].

 

Taking all courts into consideration, elevated remand arrivals are associated with an increased level of summary and solemn criminal court business[20].

 

SCTS monthly management information[21] shows that the national total trials scheduled[22] across all criminal courts increased steeply, due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, by around 140% from 18,100 in April 2020 to over 43,600 at the peak in January 2022. However, by the end of September 2024 it had reduced to less than 23,500. The number of Sheriff Solemn outstanding trials (Figure 11) decreased by 38% between September 2023 and September 2024. The enhanced court recovery resources in solemn courts has helped with this reduction in future scheduled trials. As shown in figure 12, the number of Sheriff Summary trials outstanding also decreased substantially (by 15%) between the end of September 2023 and September 2024. However, in High Court, the number of outstanding trials has increased (see Figure 10) and was 8% higher in September 2024 (703) than in September 2023 (651).

 

Figure 10. High Court scheduled trials at end of period[23].

 

Figure 11. Sheriff Court Solemn scheduled trials at end of period[24].

 

Figure 12. Sheriff Court Summary scheduled trials at end of period[25].