Scottish prison population projections: December 2024

Microsimulation Model Results: August 2024 to January 2025

The latest prison population projections are shown in Figure 15 and Table 2 below. As noted earlier, the Prisoners (Early Release) (Scotland) Bill was passed by the Scottish Parliament on 26th November 2024 and is expected to be implemented from February 2025. These prison population projections do not account for the expected reduction to the sentenced population from the Bill’s implementation (although it has been passed, Royal Assent is required for it to become an Act); rather they project the population if recent trends were to continue. The next issue of these projections will include reporting on the expected impact of the bill, by which time the size of the eligible population will be much less uncertain.

The actual total prison population on 6th December was 8,260. The overall projected range for the average daily prison population in April 2025 is between 7,950 and 8,900. Modelling indicates it is likely that the overall prison population in Scotland will increase between the beginning of November 2024 and the end of April 2025.

The actual remand population on 6th December was 2,114. The overall projected range based on modelling for the average daily remand population in April 2025 is between 1,350 and 2,800. Modelling indicates it is likely that the remand prison population in Scotland will be at a similar level in April 2025 to what it was in November 2024. If the remand population decreases primarily because of enhanced monthly case conclusions, this could contribute to an increased sentenced population as people transition from remand to the sentenced population.

The actual sentenced population on 6th December was 6,146. The overall projected range based on modelling for the average daily sentenced population in April 2025 is between 6,000 and 6,750. Modelling indicates it is highly likely that the sentenced prison population in Scotland will increase between the beginning of August 2024 and the end of January 2025. The sentenced population is almost certain to rise if inflows exceed outflows. The rate of inflow to the sentenced population could increase if either the overall rate of transition from remand to the sentenced population increases, or if there is a greater inflow of individuals directly from the community to the sentenced population.

Figure 15. Prison population projections for November 2024 to April 2025. The projection range (sometimes referred to as the fan) includes the overlapping 50%, 75% and 95% confidence intervals for all scenario variants given in Table 1. The actual population is shown as a series of black points.

Table 2. Prison average daily population upper/lower estimates for November 2024 to April 2025[1]. These estimates are calculated from the 95% confidence intervals combined across all three scenario variants given in Table 1.

In Table 2 the upper total population and upper remand range estimates are from the scenario variant with a lower conclusion rate. The lower range estimates for the total and remand populations are from the scenario with a high conclusion rate.

It should be reiterated that whilst the projections are based on recent trends, they do not explicitly model the impact of potential future policy or operational changes and/or their potential impact on the prison population.