Scottish Prison Population Projections: February 2024 Edition

Footnotes

1 The projections start at the beginning of January because data available to us on cases progressing through courts only currently extends up to the end of December 2023 (due to a time lag on receiving the processed data). As a result, the initial prison population used for the modelling is from 1st January 2024.

2 For more information, refer to Scottish prison population projections - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

3 SPS Prison Population up to 26^th January 2024, accessed 2024-02-05, SPS Prison Population.

4 Breakdown of total, remand and sentenced prison population, Justice Analytical Services: safer communities and justice statistics monthly report - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

5 Prison population monthly report, January 2024, Justice Analytical Services (JAS) Safer Communities and Justice Statistics Monthly Data Report: January 2024 edition - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

6 Prison population sentence, January 2024, Justice Analytical Services (JAS) Safer Communities and Justice Statistics Monthly Data Report: January 2024 edition - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

7 Management Information from the Scottish Court and Tribunal Service (SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk)) includes information about the arrival and liberty status for criminal case new business. This information includes the proportion who are on remand following Sheriff Court Petition (First Appearance) and Sheriff Court Summary First Calling (First Appearance), which have been broadly stable, ranging between 33.2% to 37.0% and 5.7 to 6.0% respectively during the past three years.

8 SCTS official statistics, MI and analysis, SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

9 The SCTS Quarterly Criminal Court Statistics provide quarterly Official Statistics on criminal case activity in Scotland. They follow an annual cycle which begins on 1^st April, hence Q1 covers April to June, Q2 covers July to September, Q3 includes October to December and Q4 runs from January to March. For further information see latest quarterly criminal court figures show progress in Sheriff solemn backlogs (scotcourts.gov.uk).

10 April 2023 SCTS switch of court recovery resources from summary to solemn, 25^th April 2023, Monthly information on Criminal Case Throughput for March 2023 (scotcourts.gov.uk).

11 SCTS QCC bulletin, 7^th December 2023, High Court (QCC 2b), SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

12 SCTS QCC bulletin, 7^th December 2023, High Court (QCC 2b), SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

13 SCTS QCC bulletin, 7^th December 2023, Sheriff Court Solemn (QCC 3b), SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

14 SCTS QCC bulletin, 7^th December 2023, Sheriff Court Solemn (QCC 3b), SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

15 SCTS QCC bulletin, 7^th December 2023, Sheriff Court Summary (QCC 4b), SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

16 SCTS QCC bulletin, 7^th December 2023, Sheriff Court Summary (QCC 4b), SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

17 SCTS QCC bulletin, 7^th December 2023, National Overview of criminal court cases in Scotland (QCC 1a), SCTS Management Information, SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

18 SCTS QCC bulletin, 7^th December 2023, High Court trial indictments scheduled (QCC 2b), SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

19 SCTS QCC bulletin, 7^th December 2023, Sheriff Court Solemn trial indictments scheduled (QCC 3b), SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

20 SCTS QCC bulletin, 7^th December 2023, Sheriff Court Summary trial indictments scheduled (QCC 4b), SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

21 Scottish Government Prison Population projections, 1^st June 2023, Scottish prison population projections - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

22 Seasonal trends for the prison population since the pandemic feature some general similarities around the turn of the year. The sentenced population around late November/early December tends to increase and then between Christmas and the first week of January decrease steeply. The remand population tends to reduce from late November/early December, tends to increase sharply and then stabilise between Christmas and the New Year. The total population tends to fall slightly in late November/early December, then falls more sharply in late December before recovering somewhat by early February.

23 For more information, refer to Scottish prison population projections - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

24 Scottish Government Prison Population projections, 14^th November 2023, Prison population projections: November 2023 edition - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

25 Scottish Government Prison Population projections, 14^th November 2023, Prison population projections: November 2023 edition - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

26 SCTS criminal court throughput information, Monthly information on criminal court throughput for December 2023 (scotcourts.gov.uk).

27 The values have been rounded to the nearest 50 and exclude the home detention curfew population. The upper and lower estimates of the total prison population may not be equal to the sum of the sentenced and remand populations as they can be from different scenario variants.

28 Scottish Government prison population projections, 1st June 2023, Scottish prison population projections - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

29 Scottish Government prison population projections, 14^th November 2023, Prison population projections: November 2023 edition - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

30 SCTS Courts modelling, 14^th December 2023, Updated modelling on criminal court backlog published today (scotcourts.gov.uk).