Scottish Prison Population Projections: June 2024 Edition

1 Key Points

On 30^th April 2024, the overall prison population in Scotland was around 8,250, while the remand and sentenced populations were around 2,250 and 6,000, respectively. The latest prison population projections modelling to October 2024 suggests that:

• The average daily prison population could be between 7,650 and 9,150 in October 2024. Modelling indicates it is likely^[3] that the overall prison population will increase between May and the end of October 2024.
• The average daily remand population could be between 1,100 and 3,050 in October 2024. Modelling indicates it is likely^[3] that the remand population will decrease between May and the end of October 2024.
• The average daily sentenced population could be between 5,950 and 6,700 in October 2024. Modelling indicates it is highly likely^[3] that the sentenced population will increase between May and the end of October 2024.

There is uncertainty in the prison population projections over the next six months due to several factors, including variability in both court demand and throughput.

Publication of this edition of the projections was slightly delayed so the modelling assumptions, especially those relating to flows into the population, could be informed by data from April 2024, when the rate of population increase was particularly high (i.e. greater than at any time since 2020). The decision to include data from April 2024 in the modelling means the projected population range to October 2024, includes the levels which might be reached if population inflows continue at the rate observed in the last two months. It is unclear at this stage, whether the rate of population increase will remain elevated, hence the need for the modelling to account for this possibility (as well as potential reversal) in the months ahead.

The rapid rise in the prison population in recent months, comes at a time when the population was already relatively high following a period of substantial growth in 2023. As a result of increasing pressures on prison estate capacity, the Scottish Government recently announced a number of actions it intends to take to address and mitigate the rising prison population^[4],^[5]. It should be noted that these latest prison population projections do not include the effects of any measures announced by the Scottish Government, as they have yet to be considered and/or approved by the Parliament.