Scottish Prison Population Projections: June 2024 Edition

Footnotes

1. The projections start at the beginning of May because data available to us on cases progressing through courts only currently extends up to the end of April 2024 (due to a time lag on receiving the processed data). As a result, the initial prison population used for the modelling is taken from 1st May 2024.

2. For more information, refer to Scottish prison population projections - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

3. For more information refer to the Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment (PHIA) framework of language for discussing probabilities, Page 5, Epidemiology Modelling Review Group: consensus statement on COVID-19 (publishing.service.gov.uk).

4. Scotland's prison population: Justice Secretary statement - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

5. Prison population: position paper - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

6. SPS Prison Population up to 30^th April 2024, accessed 1^st May 2024, Data, Research and Evidence | Scottish Prison Service (sps.gov.uk).

7. Breakdown of total, remand and sentenced prison population, Justice Analytical Services: safer communities and justice statistics monthly report - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

8. Prison population monthly report, Safer communities and justice statistics monthly reports - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

9. Prison population monthly report, Safer communities and justice statistics monthly reports - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

10. Management Information from the Scottish Court and Tribunal Service (SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk)) includes information about the arrival and liberty status for criminal case new business. This information includes the proportion who are on remand following Sheriff Court Petition (First Appearance) and Sheriff Court Summary First Calling (First Appearance), which have been broadly stable, ranging between 33.2% to 37.0% and 5.7 to 6.0% respectively during the past three years.

11. SCTS official statistics, MI and analysis, SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

12. SCTS Quarterly Criminal Court (QCC) bulletin, 7^th September 2023, Latest quarterly criminal court figures show progress in Sheriff solemn backlog (scotcourts.gov.uk).

13. The SCTS QCC statistics provide quarterly Official Statistics on criminal case activity in Scotland. They follow an annual cycle which begins on 1^st April, hence Q1 covers April to June, Q2 covers July to September, Q3 includes October to December and Q4 runs from January to March.

14. SCTS switch of court recovery resources from summary to solemn, 25^th April 2023, Monthly information on Criminal Case Throughput for March 2023 (scotcourts.gov.uk).

15. SCTS QCC bulletin, 7^th March 2024, High Court (QCC 2b), SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

16. SCTS QCC bulletin, 7^th March 2024, High Court (QCC 2b), SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

17. SCTS QCC bulletin, 7^th March 2024, Sheriff Court Solemn (QCC 3b), SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

18. SCTS QCC bulletin, 7^th March 2024, Sheriff Court Solemn (QCC 3b), SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

19. SCTS QCC bulletin, 7^th March 2024, Sheriff Court Summary (QCC 4b), SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

20. SCTS QCC bulletin, 7^th March 2024, Sheriff Court Summary (QCC 4b), SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

21. Analysis of the drivers of criminal case registrations are beyond the scope of this publication. National crime statistics are updated annually: Recorded crime in Scotland - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

22. SCTS QCC bulletin, 7^th March 2024, National Overview of criminal court cases in Scotland (QCC 1a), SCTS Management Information, SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

23. Outstanding trials scheduled are sometimes colloquially known as the courts backlog.

24. SCTS bulletin, 7^th March 2024, Latest quarterly criminal court figures show progress in Sheriff solemn backlogs (scotcourts.gov.uk).

25. SCTS QCC bulletin, 7^th March 2024, High Court trial indictments scheduled (QCC 2b), SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

26. SCTS QCC bulletin, 2^nd March 2024, Sheriff Court Solemn trial indictments scheduled (QCC 3b), SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

27. SCTS QCC bulletin, 2^nd March 2024, Sheriff Court Summary trial indictments scheduled (QCC 4b), SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

28. Scottish Government Prison Population projections, 1^st June 2023, Scottish Prison Population Statistics and Projections - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

29. For more information, refer to Scottish Prison Population Statistics and Projections - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

30. Scottish Government Prison Population projections, 14^th November 2023, Scottish Prison Population Statistics and Projections - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

31. Scottish Government Prison Population projections, 13^th February 2024, Scottish Prison Population Projections: February 2024 Edition - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

32. The values have been rounded to the nearest 50 and exclude the home detention curfew population. The upper and lower estimates of the total prison population may not be equal to the sum of the sentenced and remand populations as they can be from different scenario variants.

33. Scotland's prison population: Justice Secretary statement - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

34. Prison population: position paper - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

35. Scottish Government prison population projections, 14^th November 2023, Scottish Prison Population Statistics and Projections - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

36. SCTS Courts modelling, 14^th December 2023, Updated modelling on criminal court backlog published today (scotcourts.gov.uk).