Scottish prison population projections: September 2024

Prison population projections: September 2024 edition

This is the fifth report published since 2023 on the Scottish Government modelling of the level of the prison population in Scotland. It presents short term prison population projections for the six month period from August 2024 to January 2025^[1]. They have been produced using ‘microsimulation’ scenario modelling, which simulates prison arrivals and departures, to estimate the number of individuals in prison on a particular date in the future. The first issue of the Scottish prison population projections^[2] provided a detailed overview of the modelling technique used.

The projections are produced to help inform high level decision making, planning and policy development. As they do not take account of the complexity of the prison population, they are not intended for use in the day to day management of those in prison.

Developments since the last projection publication

During June and July 2024 Emergency Release (ER)^[3] was implemented for eligible individuals on short-term sentences who were already due for release in the near future. This action was taken to ease pressure on the prison estate, following substantial population growth during 2023 and early 2024. ER^[4] led directly to 477 individuals departing during June/July 2024 and the population reduced to 7,876 on 20^th July (the lowest level). Afterwards it increased rapidly, reaching 8,247 on 20th September^[5].