Scottish prison population projections: September 2024

3 Overview of Scottish Prison Population and Court Demand Trends

Figure 1 shows there have been substantial fluctuations in the total and sentenced populations since 2020.

Total population

As presented in Figure 1, the prison population fluctuated within a range between 7,350 and 7,650 from September 2020 until late 2022. In 2023 the population grew strongly, and has remained above 7,800 since mid-July 2023. As expected, the population temporarily fell during December 2023/January 2024 due to seasonal effects. It then increased rapidly in early 2024, peaking at 8,361 on 14^th May. The Scottish Parliament approved the ER of certain short-term prisoners to reduce pressure on the estate on 12^th June. ER^[8] led directly to 477 individuals departing between 26^th June and 25^th July 2024 and the population reduced to 7,876 on 20^th July (the lowest level). Afterwards it increased rapidly, reaching 8,247 on 20th September^[9].

Remand population

The remand population (see Figure 1) increased from the beginning of 2022, reaching a peak of 2,292 on 1^st February 2022, then typically decreased gradually during the rest of the year. In 2023 the remand population increased strongly throughout April and May, peaking at 2,312 on 30th May. From August to December 2023 the remand population generally decreased (it was 2,081 on 1^st January 2024). In early 2024 it increased again, reaching a peak of 2,360 on 14^th May 2024. It has remained high since, and was 2,220 on 20th September. The outlook for the remand population in 2024 remains uncertain and it is unknown whether it will follow the trends seen in recent years.

Sentenced population

The sentenced population decreased slightly during 2022, from around 5,350 in January to around 5,250 in December. In contrast, during 2023 the sentenced population increased, reaching a peak of almost 5,900 near the end of the year. The sentenced population then reduced at the end of December 2023 before increasing again until it reached 6,056 on 21^st June 2024^[10]. Due to ER^[11] the sentenced population reduced to 5,691 on 20^th July but rose again, reaching 6,027 on 20th September 2024.

Remand Arrivals and Sentenced Departures

Figure 2 shows monthly remand arrivals from April 2020 to August 2024. Remand arrivals increased month on month for each successive month from December 2023 to May 2024. Furthermore, the average monthly remand arrivals for the three months March to May 2024 were the highest for any three month period since at least March 2020, at around 880 per month. Remand arrivals in August 2024 were only slightly lower than in May. During the last 12 months the three-month period with the lowest remand arrivals (excluding December due to seasonal effects) was September to November 2023, with an average of around 750 remand arrivals per month.

Sentenced departures (see Figure 2) in June and July 2024 were the highest since May 2020 (when the previous ER took place^[13]). Following ER, sentenced departures were temporarily reduced; in August 2024 it was at its lowest since October 2023 (if excluding January 2024 due to seasonal disruption).

The sentenced prison population from March 2020 to August 2024, sub-divided by sentence length is shown in Figure 3 below. All population groups tended to increase from 1^st January 2023 until June 2024. The short term prison population decreased sharply during the ER period in June/July 2024. The population serving overall sentences of more than four years, as well as those serving Orders of Lifelong Restriction, have continually increased over several years and now exceed pre-pandemic levels. The population serving life sentences has declined gradually since 2020.

The growth in the total prison population since the beginning of 2023 was driven by both remand and sentenced arrivals to custody⁴. The remand population is influenced by the level of new cases registered and cases concluded in Scottish Courts ^[15]. Elevated court throughput (case conclusions) can lead to increased flow into the sentenced population. The Scottish Courts and Tribunals Service (SCTS) frequently publish information on the level of registrations and conclusions across all courts^[16].

Court recovery programme resources were switched from summary procedure on 1^st April 2023, resulting in 2 additional High Court and 6 additional Sheriff Solemn trial courts^[17], but 10 fewer Sheriff Court Summary trial courts. The charts in Figures 4 to 9 below show registrations and conclusions for High Court, Sheriff Court Solemn and Sheriff Court Summary. Figure 4 shows the number of High Court indictment registrations over the last decade from 2014/15 Q1 (covering April to June 2014) to 2024/25 Q1 (covering April to June 2024)^[18]. The number of High Court indictments registered in 2023/24 (935) was almost identical to 2022/23 (939). In contrast, as shown in figure 5, High Court conclusions during 2023/24 (996) were 22% higher than in 2022/23 (815). The increase in conclusions is likely to be partially due to the uplift in High Court capacity from April 2023^[19]). Indictment registrations (see Figure 6) in Sheriff Solemn have also been high recently; there were almost 25% more Sheriff Solemn indictments in 2023/24 than during 2022/23. As shown in figure 7, following the introduction of six further Sheriff Court Solemn trial courts in April 2023, conclusions in 2023/24 were around 13% higher than 2022/23, and they were the highest since at least 2014/15. Imprisonments from Sheriff Solemn in 2023/24 (6,450) were 10% higher than during 2022/23 (5,859)^[20].

The level of complaints registered in Sheriff Summary Courts in 2023/24 was around 14% higher (65,400) than in 2022/23 (57,200) (see Figure 8) and were at their highest since 2019/20. Sheriff Court Summary conclusions in 2023/24 were around 5% lower than during the 2022/23 (see Figure 9). There were slightly fewer Sheriff Summary conclusions than registrations during 2023/24. The slight reduction in complaint conclusions is mainly due to the switch of court recovery programme resources from summary to solemn in April 2023, so there were 10 fewer Sheriff Court Summary trial courtrooms in 2023/24. Sheriff Summary imprisonment disposals were 15% higher in 2023/24 (10,745) than in 2022/23 (9,322)^[25].

Taking all courts into consideration, elevated remand arrivals during 2023/24 are associated with an increased level of criminal cases in Sheriff Solemn and Sheriff Summary^[28].

SCTS monthly management information^[29] shows that the national total trials scheduled^[30] across all criminal courts increased steeply, due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, by around 140% from 18,100 in April 2020 to over 43,600 at the peak in January 2022. However, by the end of June 2024 there were less than 26,000. The number of outstanding trials in High Court (see Figure 10) were at a very similar level in March 2024 (693) to one year earlier, in March 2023 (687). The number of Sheriff Solemn outstanding trials (Figure 11) decreased by almost 30% during 2023/24. The enhanced court recovery resources in solemn courts has helped with this reduction in future scheduled trials. However, as figure 12 shows, the number of Sheriff Summary trials outstanding increased slightly between the end of March 2023 (when summary court resources were reduced) and March 2024.