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Publication - Research and analysis

Scottish prison population projections: September 2024

Published
2 October 2024
Directorate
Justice Directorate, +1 more … Safer Communities Directorate
Topic
Law and order
ISBN
9781836018186

This report presents short-term Scottish prison population projections for the six month period from August 2024 to January 2025. They have been produced using ‘microsimulation’ scenario modelling which simulates prison arrivals and departures, and estimates the number of individuals in prison.

View supporting documents Supporting documents

5 Microsimulation Model Results: August 2024 to January 2025

The latest prison population projections are shown in figure 15 and table 2 below. The actual total prison population on 31st July 2024 was around 7,950. The overall projected range for the average daily prison population in January 2025 is between 7,750 and 9,250. Modelling indicates it is likely that the overall prison population in Scotland will increase between the beginning of August 2024 and the end of January 2025.

The actual remand population on 31st July 2024 was around 2,200. The overall projected range based on modelling for the average daily remand population in January 2025 is between 1,050 and 3,150. Modelling indicates it is likely that the remand prison population in Scotland will decrease slightly between the beginning of August 2024 and the end of January 2025. If the remand population decreases primarily because of enhanced monthly case conclusions, this could contribute to an increased sentenced population as people transition from remand to the sentenced population.

The actual sentenced population on 31st July 2024 was around 5,750. The overall projected range based on modelling for the average daily sentenced population in January 2025 is between 6,000 and 6,800. Modelling indicates it is highly likely that the sentenced prison population in Scotland will increase between the beginning of August 2024 and the end of January 2025. The sentenced population is almost certain to rise if inflows exceed outflows. The rate of inflow to the sentenced population could increase if either the overall rate of transition from remand to the sentenced population increases, or if there is a greater inflow of individuals directly from the community to the sentenced population.

Figure 15: Prison population projections for August 2024 to January 2025. The projection range (sometimes referred to as the fan) includes the overlapping 50%, 75% and 95% confidence intervals for all scenario variants given in table 1. The actual population is shown as a series of black points.
A line chart showing prison population projections for August 2024 to January 2025. Includes 50%, 75% and 95% confidence intervals for assumed high, central and low court throughput. A description of the trends is contained in the body text.
Table 2: Prison average daily population upper/lower estimates for August 2024 to January 2025[39]. These estimates are calculated from the 95% confidence intervals combined across all nine scenario variants given in table 1.
Month Remand - Lower estimate Remand - Upper estimate Sentenced - Lower estimate Sentenced - Upper estimate Total - Lower estimate Total - Upper estimate
Aug-24 2,050 2,300 5,800 5,900 7,900 8,100
Sep-24 1,750 2,400 5,850 6,150 7,850 8,350
Oct-24 1,550 2,600 5,900 6,350 7,800 8,600
Nov-24 1,350 2,750 5,950 6,550 7,800 8,850
Dec-24 1,200 2,950 6,000 6,700 7,750 9,050
Jan-25 1,050 3,150 6,000 6,800 7,750 9,250

In Table 2 the upper total population and upper remand range estimates are from the scenario variant with a lower conclusion rate and higher remand arrival rate. The lower range estimates for the total and remand populations are from the scenario with a high conclusion rate and a low remand arrival rate.

It should be noted that whilst the projections are based on recent trends, they do not explicitly model the impact of potential future policy or operational changes and their potential impact on the prison population.

Contact

Email: Justice_Analysts@gov.scot

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