Scottish prison population projections: September 2024

Footnotes

1 The projections start at the beginning of August because data available to us on cases progressing through courts only currently extends up to the end of July 2024 (due to a time lag on receiving the processed data). As a result, the initial prison population used for the modelling is taken from 1st August 2024.

2 For more information, refer to Scottish prison population projections - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

3 Emergency Early Release of those on short term sentences, June 2024, Emergency Early Release | Scottish Prison Service (sps.gov.uk).

4 SPS Early Release Data, Research and Evidence, 2^nd September 2024, Early Release of Prisoners and Prescribed Victim Supporters (Scotland) Regulations 2024- Data Analysis Summary Report.pdf (sps.gov.uk).

5 SPS Prison Population up to 20th September, accessed 25^th September 2024, Data, Research and Evidence | Scottish Prison Service (sps.gov.uk).

6 For more information refer to the Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment (PHIA) framework of language for discussing probabilities, Page 5, Epidemiology Modelling Review Group: consensus statement on COVID-19 (publishing.service.gov.uk).

7 Seasonal trends for the prison population since the COVID-19 pandemic indicate some very general similarities at the turn of the year. The sentenced population around late November/early December tends to increase, then between Christmas and the first week of January steeply decrease. The remand population tends to reduce from late November/early December, then it tends to increase sharply before stabilising between Christmas and New Year. The total population tends to fall slightly in late November/early December, then falls more sharply in late December before recovering somewhat by early February.

8 SPS Early Release Data, Research and Evidence, 2^nd September 2024, Early Release of Prisoners and Prescribed Victim Supporters (Scotland) Regulations 2024- Data Analysis Summary Report.pdf (sps.gov.uk).

9 SPS Prison Population up to 20th September, accessed 25^th September 2024, Data, Research and Evidence | Scottish Prison Service (sps.gov.uk).

10 SPS Prison Population up to 20th September 2024, accessed 25^th September 2024, Data, Research and Evidence | Scottish Prison Service (sps.gov.uk).

11 Scottish Government, Prison population information note, 12^th June 2024, Prison population: information note - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

12 Breakdown of total, remand and sentenced prison population, Justice Analytical Services: safer communities and justice statistics monthly report - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

13 Emergency Release, The Release of Prisoners (Coronavirus) (Scotland) Regulations 2020 (legislation.gov.uk), May 2020.

14 Prison population monthly report, Safer communities and justice statistics monthly reports - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

15 Management Information from the Scottish Court and Tribunal Service (SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk)) includes information about the arrival and liberty status for criminal case new business. This information includes the proportion who are on remand following Sheriff Court Petition (First Appearance) and Sheriff Court Summary First Calling (First Appearance), which have been broadly stable, ranging between 33.2% to 37.0% and 5.7 to 6.0% respectively during the past three years.

16 SCTS official statistics, MI and analysis, SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

17 SCTS Quarterly Criminal Court (QCC) bulletin, 7^th September 2023, Latest quarterly criminal court figures show progress in Sheriff solemn backlog (scotcourts.gov.uk).

18 The SCTS QCC statistics provide quarterly Official Statistics on criminal case activity in Scotland. They follow an annual cycle which begins on 1^st April, hence Q1 covers April to June, Q2 covers July to September, Q3 includes October to December and Q4 runs from January to March.

19 SCTS switch of court recovery resources from summary to solemn, 25^th April 2023, Monthly information on Criminal Case Throughput for March 2023 (scotcourts.gov.uk).

20 Scottish Government Justice Analytical Services Criminal Disposals Dashboard, Scottish Government Justice Analytical Services Criminal Disposals Dashboard (shinyapps.io), accessed 13^th September 2024.

21 SCTS QCC bulletin, 5^th September 2024, High Court (QCC 2b), SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

22 SCTS QCC bulletin, 5^th September 2024, High Court (QCC 2b), SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

23 SCTS QCC bulletin, 5^th September 2024, Sheriff Court Solemn (QCC 3b), SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

24 SCTS QCC bulletin, 5^th September 2024, Sheriff Court Solemn (QCC 3b), SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

25 Scottish Government Justice Analytical Services Criminal Disposals Dashboard, Scottish Government Justice Analytical Services Criminal Disposals Dashboard (shinyapps.io), accessed 13^th September 2024.

26 SCTS QCC bulletin, 5^th September , Sheriff Court Summary (QCC 4b), SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

27 SCTS QCC bulletin, 5^th September , Sheriff Court Summary (QCC 4b), SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

28 Analysis of the drivers of criminal case registrations are beyond the scope of this publication. National crime statistics are updated annually: Recorded crime in Scotland - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

29 SCTS QCC bulletin, 5^th September 2024, National Overview of criminal court cases in Scotland (QCC 1a), SCTS Management Information, SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

30 Outstanding trials scheduled are sometimes colloquially known as the courts backlog.

31 SCTS QCC bulletin, 5^th September 2024, High Court trial indictments scheduled (QCC 2b), SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

32 SCTS QCC bulletin, 5^th September 2024, Sheriff Court Solemn trial indictments scheduled (QCC 3b), SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

33 SCTS QCC bulletin, 5^th September 2024, Sheriff Court Summary trial indictments scheduled (QCC 4b), SCTS Official Published Statistics (scotcourts.gov.uk).

34 Scottish Government Prison Population projections, 1^st June 2023, Scottish Prison Population Statistics and Projections - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

35 For more information, refer to Scottish Prison Population Statistics and Projections - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

36 Scottish Government Prison Population projections, 14^th November 2023, Scottish Prison Population Statistics and Projections - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

37 July 2024 has not been used due to the temporary impact of Emergency Release on sentenced population flows.

38 Scottish Government Prison Population projections, 13^th February 2024, Scottish Prison Population Projections: February 2024 Edition - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

39 The values have been rounded to the nearest 50 and exclude the home detention curfew population. The upper and lower estimates of the total prison population may not be equal to the sum of the sentenced and remand populations as they can be from different scenario variants.

40 Scottish Government prison population projections, 14^th November 2023, Scottish Prison Population Statistics and Projections - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

41 SCTS Courts modelling, 14^th December 2023, Updated modelling on criminal court backlog published today | Scottish Courts (scotcourts.gov.uk).