Scottish prison population projections

1 Key Points

The latest prison population projections to September 2023 show that:

• The overall prison population in Scotland is highly likely to either remain stable or rise slightly between April and September 2023, with a projected range of between 7,300 and 8,050 for the average daily prison population in September 2023. As at 1st April 2023, the prison population was around 7,500.
• It is highly likely that the remand population will either remain stable or decrease between April and September 2023. If it decreases as a result of enhanced monthly case conclusions, this may contribute to an increased sentenced population as more individuals transition from remand.
• It is highly likely that the sentenced population will either remain stable or rise slightly; it may rise if the overall rate of transition from remand to the sentenced population increases or if there is a greater inflow of individuals directly from the community to the sentenced population.

There is likely to be a degree of uncertainty in the prison population projections over the next six months due to a number of factors, including variability in both court demand and throughput.