8. Population Transitions and Out-Flows

This section of the report examines transitions within, and departures from, custody in the reporting year.  Quantification of population flows are provided, as well as an examination of custodial ‘journeys’ by legal status.  Individuals can enter custody with any one of the legal statuses (untried, convicted awaiting sentence, or sentenced), and may transition through other statuses before departing[1].  For the custodial ‘journeys’ captured in the cellWise data, it is possible to measure and report overall time in custody, as well as time spent with a remand status.  Where available, the reasons for an individuals’ liberation is provided in section 8.4. 

8.1 Departures and transitions

[Supplementary Tables C1, O2, O3 & O4]

There was broad stability between reporting years, with 10,437 departures[2] from prison in 2022-23 - a decrease of less than 0.4% from 2021-22.  Volume of departures remained considerably below pre-pandemic levels for 2022-23.  Accounting for multiple departures per person, 8,567 individuals departed prison one or more times in 2022-23 – an increase of less than 1% from the previous year (see Figure 22), and still far below the 2019-20 level of 11,457.

Figure 22: Number of departures, and unique individuals departing, fell over 2009-10 to 2022-23

Of all departures[3] in 2022-23, 47% were from remand and 53% were sentenced.  This is broadly the same proportion departing from a remand status as in 2021-22 (46%), and reflects a longer term pattern (43% in 2020-21 and 44% in 2019-20, 40-43% in preceding years).  The number of remand departures increased by around 1% in 2022-23, from 4,773 in 2021-22 to 4,836.  On the other hand, departures from sentenced status decreased from the previous year (-2% from 5,613 to 5,520 in 2022-23).

There were 3,883 transitions[4] from remand to sentenced status in 2022-23 - around 1% more than in 2021-22 (3,847) but still 22% less than pre-pandemic (4,966 in 2019-20).

8.2 Custodial journeys

[Supplementary Tables C1 & O2]

Figure 23: Departures by Journey Type

Figure 23 shows the proportion of departures by custodial journey type[5].  Journey types represent the progress through the legal status hierarchy[6] in the course of an occupancy period, from untried (U), convicted awaiting sentence (A) to sentenced (S).  Custodial journeys vary depending on legal status on arrival and whether or not the individual transitions between legal statuses before departing.  Some individuals enter and leave custody having had the same legal status for the duration of their time served/ held. These would be represented as U, A or S in the chart above.  Others enter custody with one legal status and transition to another before leaving.  For example, an individual may enter as untried, progress to convicted awaiting sentence and then subsequently sentenced. This particular journey type would be UAS in the chart above. 

The proportion of departures from an untried only journey has increased consistently over the past four years, from around a quarter in 2018-19 to one third in 2022-23.  Over that period the number of such departures has risen (to 3,935 in 2019-20) then fallen (3,128 in 2020-21) before rising again to reach 3,413 in 2022-23.  Over the same period there has been a substantial fall in the proportion of sentenced only journeys.  Fluctuations in the number and prevalence of the different journey types likely reflect changes in the volume and nature of court business, and the disruption to court activity during the pandemic.  Information about  court business is published monthly by the Scottish Courts and Tribunals Service[7].

8.3 Time in custody

[Supplementary tables D2]

The mean total duration of an occupancy period in custody was 235 days in 2022-23. 

The average time spent in custody has increased over the longer term, a pattern that became more pronounced during the pandemic. In 2009-10, the mean total duration was 122 days.  This had increased to 169 in 2019-20[8] before a sharp increase to 216 days in 2020-21 (+47 days).   The latest increase (+9 days from 2021-22 to 235) appears to have been driven by a continued reduction in the share of departing occupancy periods of '> 3 and 6 months’ and increase in those of ‘> 6 and ≤ 12 months’ and of ‘4+ years’, as shown in Figure 24. 

There has been a long term decline in the proportion of short stays in custody. Continuous periods in custody of 6 months or less made up 85% of all occupancy periods ending in 2009-10 and 77% in 2019-20, but just 68% in 2022-23.

Figure 24: Banded time in custody at departure

8.3.1 Time on remand

[Supplementary tables O2]

Time on remand can be measured when an individual departs custody without a sentencing warrant in that occupancy period, or when they transition from a remand status to the sentenced population[9].

As shown in Figure 25, the median time taken for an individual to depart custody from remand has remained at a similar level since 2009-10.  In 2022-23 the median number of days to departure from remand was 21 days.  However, the longest periods spent on remand have been increasing over time.  In 2017-18, 90% of remand departures had occurred within 63 days, with the longest 10% of stays before departure taking 64 days or more.  By 2022-23, the longest 10% of stays before departure from remand took 146 days or more.

The time taken to transition from a remand status to the sentenced population is longer on average than it is to depart from remand.  The median number of days to transition was broadly stable from 2009-10 to 2017-18.  In 2017-18 the median number of days to transition was 31, but this rose steeply in 2020-21 to 55.  In 2022-23 it remained at a similar level at 54 days. 

As with departures, the longest periods to transition from remand to sentenced have been increasing over time.  In 2019-20, 90% of transitions occurred within 145 days, with the longest 10% of stays before transition taking 146 days or more.  By 2022-23 the longest 10% of stays before transition from remand took 289 days or more.

Figure 25: Days on remand by destination – transition to the sentenced population or departure to the community – median and 90th percentile days

In 2022-23, although remand-only journey types[10] of all lengths increased in number only slightly, the proportion share across duration bands shifted somewhat from 2021-22.  The proportion of remand journeys lasting up to 7 days had remained around 22% over the previous three reporting years but increased to 25% in 2022-23.  The proportion of remand journeys lasting more than 140 days also increased remained slightly elevated from 7% in 2020-21 to 10% in 2021-22 and 2022-23.

8.4 Liberations

8.4.1 Liberations from remand

[Supplementary tables O4]

The overall volume of recorded liberation types for departures from remand increased slightly between 2021-22 and 2022-23, from 4,773 to 4,836. 

The number of court or procurator fiscal liberations increased 14%, from 3,241 in 2021-22 to 3,683 in 2022-23.  This continues the trend from 2021-22, following a large decrease in this liberation type (-52%) in the first pandemic year.

Prior to the pandemic, liberations to court or procurator fiscal accounted for the largest volume of recorded liberation types.  This pattern shifted in 2020-21, when it fell below the volume of transitions to sentenced.  In 2022-23, volume of transitions continued to exceed liberations to court or procurator fiscal (3,883 and 3,683 respectively).  

In 2019-20, 528 remand departures were liberated to bail, but in 2020-21 this increased almost threefold to 1,544 (Figure 26) before decreasing by 10% in 2021-22 to 1,393.  In 2022-23 this decreased by a further 28% to 999 but the volume remains higher than in pre-pandemic years.

Figure 26: Number of transitions and departures from remand by liberation type

The time to departure varies depending on the type of liberation.  Figure 27 shows the median and 90th percentile days on remand by liberation type. 

Median time to liberation from remand by the courts or procurator fiscal remained constant from 2020-21 at 27 days, while the 90th percentile increased from 100 days in 2020-21 to 141 days in 2021-22 and then to 164 days in 2022-23.

Days on remand until transition is described in section 8.3.1.

Liberations to bail have fluctuated in recent years, with the median time to liberation staying constant between 2019-20 and 2022-23 at 8 days.  However, 10% of those liberated to bail remained in custody for 114 days or more in 2021-22 and 115 days or more in 2020-21, compared with just 30 days or more in 2019-20.  In 2022-23 this 90th percentile level fell back down to 49 days.

Figure 27: Days on remand for transitions to the sentenced population and departures by liberation type, median and 90th percentile

8.4.2 Sentenced liberations

[Supplementary tables O4]

As discussed in section 8.1, the overall volume of sentenced departures fell slightly in 2022-23.  This was reflected in a 2% decrease in recorded liberations[11] from the sentenced population (from 5,613 in 2021-22 to 5,520 in 2022-23).  Figure 28 below shows the breakdown by liberation type. 

Figure 28: Number of departures from sentenced status by liberation type

Liberations recorded as ‘sentence served’ fell by 8% in 2022-23, from 4,175 in 2021-22 to 3,826.  On the other hand, liberations to conditional release (on licence, parole or home detention curfew) increased by 14% from 886 in 2021-22 to 1,006 in 2022-23. 

Liberations by the court or procurator fiscal increased from 189 to 300 over the same time period.  There was a decrease in liberations to bail, from 80 in 2021-22 to 57 in 2022-23.  These liberation types, generally associated with remand prisoners, may indicate individuals moving from sentenced to remand prior to departure, as discussed in section 9.1.

Under emergency legislation introduced at the beginning of the Covid pandemic[12], 348 prisoners were released in 2020-21.  There have been no further such releases.