Population Transitions and Out-Flows

This section of the report examines transitions within, and departures from, custody in the reporting year. Individuals can enter custody with any one of the legal statuses (untried, convicted awaiting sentence, or sentenced), and may transition through other statuses before departing[i]. For the custodial ‘journeys’ captured in the cellWise data, it is possible to measure and report overall time in custody, as well as time spent with a remand status. Where available, the reasons for an individuals’ release is provided in the section Liberations.

Departures and transitions

[Supplementary Tables C1, O2, O3 & O4]

Departures from custody increased by 6.5%[ii] in 2023-24, from 10,437 in 2022-23 to 11,111. This compares with an 11% increase in Arrivals to prison, which has contributed to the rise in the prison population in the most recent year. This is the largest recorded increase in departures over this time series, however the volume of departures remains considerably below pre-pandemic levels.

An individual can enter and leave custody multiple times in a year. 8,952 individuals departed prison one or more times in 2023-24 – an increase of 4.5% from the previous year (see Figure 25), but still far below the 2019-20 level of 11,457.

Figure 25: Departures have increased in 2023-24 from the previous year but remain lower than pre-pandemic levels

Number of departures, and unique individuals departing, 2009-10 to 2023-24

Around 46% of departures in 2023-24 were from remand and 53% were from the sentenced population. This is broadly the same proportion departing from a remand status as over the past two years (46%), and reflects a longer term pattern (43% in 2020-21 and 44% in 2019-20, 40-43% in preceding years). The number of remand departures increased by around 6% in 2023-24, from 4,836 in 2022-23 to 5,125. Departures from sentenced status increased from the previous year at a similar rate (+7% from 5,520 to 5,891 in 2023-24).

There were 4,090 transitions[iii] from remand to sentenced status in 2023-24 - around 5% more than in 2022-23 (3,888) but still 18% fewer than pre-pandemic (4,966 in 2019-20).

Custodial journeys

[Supplementary Tables C1 & O2]

Figure 26 shows the number of departures by custodial journey type[iv]. Journey types represent the progress through the legal status hierarchy[v] in the course of an occupancy period, from untried (U), convicted awaiting sentence (A) to sentenced (S). Custodial journeys vary depending on legal status on arrival and whether or not the individual transitions between legal statuses before departing. Some individuals enter and leave custody having had the same legal status for the duration of their time served/ held. These are represented as U, A or S in the chart below. Others enter custody with one legal status and transition to another before leaving. For example, an individual may enter as untried, progress to convicted awaiting sentence and then subsequently sentenced. This particular journey type would be UAS in the chart below.

Figure 26: The volume of departures by journey type in 2023-24 is lower than pre-pandemic levels, but there are increases in convicted awaiting sentence only journeys, convicted awaiting sentence to sentenced journeys and sentenced only journeys

Departures by Journey Type, 2009-10 to 2023-24

While the total number of departures increased by 6% (from 10,437 to 11,110) between 2022-23 and 2023-24, this was entirey driven by increases in:

• convicted awaiting sentence-only “_A_” journeys (+33% from 924 to 1,231),
• “_AS” journeys (+20% from 771 to 927 departures), and
• sentenced-only “__S” journeys (+11% from 1,862 to 2,073).

The level of other journey types remained approximately the same as the preceeding year.

When compared with 2019-20, levels remain lower than pre-pandemic across all journey types.

Time in custody

[Supplementary Tables D2]

The mean total duration of an occupancy period[vi] was 222 days in 2023-24, down from 235 days in 2022-23.

The average time spent in custody has increased over the longer term, and this pattern has became more pronounced since the Covid pandemic. In 2009-10, the mean total duration was 122 days. This had increased to 169 in 2019-20[vii] before a sharp increase to 216 days in 2020-21 (+47 days). The latest decrease (-13 days from 2022-23) appears to have been driven by an increase in the proportion of departures occuring after a short stay of up to 6 months, as shown in Figure 27.

Prior to this there had been a long term decline in the proportion of short stays in custody. Continuous periods in custody of 6 months or less made up 85% of all occupancy periods ending in 2009-10 and 77% in 2019-20, but just 68% in 2022-23. In 2023-24 this has increased slightly to 70%.

Figure 27: A small increase in the proportion of departures occuring after a short stay of up to 3 months in 2023-24

Banded time in custody at departure, 2009-10 to 2023-24

Time on remand

[Supplementary Tables O2]

Time on remand[viii] can be measured when an individual departs custody without a sentencing warrant in that occupancy period, or when they transition from a remand status to the sentenced population for the first time[ix] in an occupancy period.

As shown in Figure 28, the median time taken for an individual to depart custody from remand has remained at a similar level since 2009-10. In 2023-24 the median number of days to departure from remand was 21 days. However, until last year the longest periods spent on remand had increased over time. In 2017-18, 90% of remand departures had occurred within 63 days. By 2022-23, the longest 10% of stays before departure from remand took 146 days or more. In 2023-24 this fell to 109 days before remand departure, although this remains substantially higher than pre-pandemic.

The time taken to transition from a remand status to the sentenced population is longer on average than time to depart from remand. The median number of days to transition was broadly stable from 2009-10 to 2017-18. In 2017-18 the median number of days to transition was 31, but this rose steeply in 2020-21 to 55. In 2022-23 it remained at a similar level at 54 days, but in 2023-24 this figure fell to 47 days.

As with departures, the longest periods to transition from remand to sentenced had been increasing over time. In 2019-20, 90% of transitions occurred within 145 days. By 2022-23 the longest 10% of stays before transition from remand took 289 days or more. In 2023-24 this fell slightly to 278 days.

Figure 28: Time on remand for those who transition to serving a sentence, and the longest remand departure periods, fell in 2023-24 but remains considerably longer than a decade ago

Days on remand by destination – transition to the sentenced population or departure to the community – median and 90th percentile days, 2009-10 to 2023-24

Remand-only journey types[x] of more than two weeks and up to five weeks increased in both number and proportion of all remand journeys to their highest levels since 2020-21. In 2023-24 there were 1,753 such departures, accounting for 34% of all remand-only journey departures.

Single day remand-only departures were at their highest level since 2016-17 at 472 and accounted for 9% of remand departures in 2023-24 – the highest recorded rate. In 2016-17 there were 507 such single day remand departures, or 7% of remand departures.

Liberations

Leaving Remand

[Supplementary Tables O4]

The overall volume of departures from remand increased by 6% between 2022-23 and 2023-24, from 4,836 to 5,125.

The number of those with court or procurator fiscal liberations increased 9%, from 3,683 in 2022-23 to 4,031 in 2023-24, and accounted for 79% of remand departures. This continues the growth trend from 2021-22, following a large decrease in this liberation type (-52%) in the first pandemic year. In 2019-20, these liberations accounted for 89% of remand departures.

In 2019-20, 528 remand departures were liberated to bail, but in 2020-21 this increased almost threefold to 1,544 (Figure 29) before decreasing in 2022-23 to 999. In 2023-24 this decreased further to 933 but the volume remains higher than in pre-pandemic years.

Figure 29: Transitions and in court liberations from remand increased in 2023-24, while liberations to bail decreased

Number of transitions and departures from remand by liberation type, 2009-10 to 2023-24The time to departure varies depending on the type of liberation. Figure 30 shows the median and 90th percentile days on remand by liberation type.

Median time to liberation from remand by the courts or procurator fiscal fell slightly from 27 days between 2020-221 and 2022-24 to 24 days in 2023-24. The 90th percentile also fell from a high of 164 days in 2022-23 to 114 days in 2023-24. This remains above the pre-pandemic level of 101 days.

Liberations to bail have fluctuated in recent years, with the median time to liberation staying constant between 2019-20 and 2023-24 at 8 days. However, 10% of those liberated to bail remained in custody for 114 days or more in 2021-22 and 115 days or more in 2020-21, compared with just 30 days or more in 2019-20. In 2022-23 this 90th percentile level fell back down to 49 days and in 2023-24 it was 50 days.

Days on remand until transition is described in the section Time on remand.

Figure 30: Both the median and 90th percentile duration of remand before a Court liberation have fallen in 2023-24

Days on remand for transitions to the sentenced population and departures by liberation type, median and 90th percentile, 2009-10 to 2023-24

Sentenced liberations

[Supplementary Tables O4]

As discussed in the section Departures and transitions, the overall volume of sentenced departures increased by around 7% in 2023-24. This was reflected in a 7% increase in recorded liberations[xi] from the sentenced population (from 5,520 in 2022-23 to 5,891 in 2022-23). Figure 31 below shows the breakdown by liberation type.

Figure 31: All liberation types increased as departures from sentenced increased in 2023-24

Number of departures from sentenced status by liberation type, 2009-10 to 2023-24

Liberations recorded as ‘sentence served’ rose by 4% in 2022-23, from 3,826 to 3,998. Liberations to conditional release (on licence, parole or home detention curfew) also increased by 3% from 1,006 in 2022-23 to 1,040 in 2023-24.

Liberations by the court or procurator fiscal increased from 300 to 326 over the same time period. There was an increase in liberations to bail, from 57 in 2022-23 to 63 in 2023-24. These liberation types, generally associated with remand prisoners, may indicate individuals moving from sentenced to remand prior to departure, as discussed in Legal status discrepancies.

Statutory Throughcare Departures

[Supplementary Tables P2]

In this section we provide the number individuals departing from an occupancy period associated with a Supervised Release Order[xii] (SRO) or extended sentence[xiii] flag, as shown in Figure 32.

Comparing these counts with the number of community commencements reported in Justice Social Work statistics[xiv] provides reassurance that estimates in this release are in line with expected counts.

The number of individuals departing with extended sentence orders have fallen from a peak of 218 in 2013-14 (2.3% of sentenced departures). In 2023-24 this had decreased to 103 individuals departing (1.9% of sentenced departures).

Comparing these figures with the information provided by Justice Social Work statistics we see that the trends track each other closely, although there is some degree of variation between the two counts.

Figure 32: Community Commencements of Extended and SRO sentences broadly align to individuals departing sentenced each year 2014-15 to 2023-24

Comparing Justice Social Work (JSW) Statistics and Prison Population Statistics (SPPS) between 2014-15 and 2023-24

The number of individuals departing custody with a Supervised Release Order (SRO) peaked at 355 in 2016-17, when they comprised 3.7% of departures. The reduced number of departures overall in 2022-23 meant that the smaller number of such releases (302) accounted for a greater proportion of those entering the community (5.5%). The 297 individuals departing with an SRO flag in 2023-24 made up 5% of all people departing custody.

Comparing these figures with the number of community commencements each year, we observe a systematic over-estimate in the prison data. For more information see the Technical Manual[xv].