Scottish Rural Development Programme 2014-2020: ex-post evaluation - main report

18. Focus Area 5E

Introduction

This chapter answers the evaluation question related to FA 5E.

CEQ 15: To what extent have RDP interventions supported carbon conservation and sequestration in agriculture and forestry?

Contribution to FA 5E

Public expenditure

One scheme was programmed to contribute to FA 5E – the FGS. In addition, there were on-going commitments from the 2007-2013 Programme for the RP and LMO schemes. The AIR 2023 reports that realised expenditure under FA 5E was circa €236.0 million, and that this was predominantly delivered via the FGS, see Table 18.1.

Source: Scottish Government, Annual Implementation Report, 2023.

The two measures programmed under FA 5E were Measure 8 (Investments in forest area development and improvement of the viability of forests) and Measure 16 (Cooperation) and points to note include that:

• for Measure 8 committed expenditure was €252.7 million and realised expenditure was €236.0 million - this represents over 99% of the committed and realised expenditure associated with FA 5E.
• for Measure 16 the level of expenditure was much lower - committed expenditure was €0.7 million and realised expenditure was circa €0.2 million. The committed expenditure for Measure 16 was more than four times the planned expenditure for the whole Programme. However, the realised expenditure was slightly greater than the planned expenditure. This again illustrates that expenditure commitments do not necessarily equate to realised expenditure. The differences between the planned and realised expenditure figures could also be a result of different exchange rates between Pounds Sterling and Euros used for the two expenditure figures.

Performance indicators

A summary of the outcomes achieved under FA 5E is provided in Table 18.2 and Table 18.3. Table 18.2 provides a cumulative summary of outcomes and Table 18.3 provides a detailed annual performance for outcomes O4 and O5.

Source: Scottish Government, Annual Implementation Report, 2023.

* Considers this output under measure 8.1 Support for afforestation/creation of woodland establishment. Does not include maintenance. See table 18.3 for annual outcomes including both establishment and maintenance activity.

Source: Scottish Government, Annual Implementation Report, 2023.

The target indicator for FA 5E is the percentage of agricultural and forest land that is under management contracts to contribute to carbon sequestration and conservation.

In addition to the area afforested under Sub-Measure 8.1 and the area to support agro-forestry systems under Sub-Measure 8.2 that were programmed under FA 5E the relevant agricultural land under management funded under Priority 4 contributed to this target.

In the first three years of the 2014-2020 Programme, all the agricultural land that was under management contacts that contributed to carbon sequestration and conservation was due to on-going commitments made under the 2007-2013 Programme. There was agricultural land under management contacts contributing to carbon sequestration as a result of the AECS for the first time during 2017.

Points to note include that by the end of the Programme:

• there were 1,541,916 hectares of agricultural land under management contacts contributing to carbon sequestration.
• there were 51,490 hectares of forestry land under management contacts that contributed to carbon sequestration and conservation – 84% were under management as a result of the FGS with the remaining 16% due to on-going forestry commitments made under the 2007-2013 Programme. The proportion of forestry land under management which contributed to this target due to the FGS increased as the Programme period progressed. This is in line with expectations given forestry related projects can take a while to come to fruition and that the FGS did not start funding projects until 2016.
• in total 1,593,406 hectares of agricultural and forest land have been under management contacts and have contributed to carbon sequestration and conservation - this represents 22.87% of the total agricultural and forest land and is higher than the target value of 16.14% (meaning that 141.76% of the target was achieved).

Wider commentary at a SRDP scheme level

Forestry Grant Scheme

The FGS had a realised expenditure of circa €202 million under FA 5E – this represents the vast majority of total realised expenditure under this FA (85.7%).

According to the draft FGS evaluation report shared with the evaluators, the FGS Woodland Creation Grants Scheme was heavily tied to this FA and is one of the better quantified outcomes. The carbon sequestration for the woodland creation under the FGS was calculated using the QFORC tool - this is an internal SG excel tool that was created by Forest Research. The total predicted carbon sequestered by 2045, for woodlands created with FGS funding up to 2021 (inclusive), is 8,017,083 tonnes. There was also 590 hectares of peatland restoration funded between 2015 and 2021.

The main anticipated impact on carbon conservation was expected to come from projects under Measure 8. Carbon sequestration is a key rationale of the FGS – and Scotland has a climate change plan and a suite of actions to reduce and mitigate emissions.

The main sequestration contribution was achieved through planting new woodland, which accounted for about 80% of expenditure under the FGS, the remainder was accounted for by forestry management (which has an impact on carbon conservation, though this was not the main focus of the support).

Woodland creation is a significant component of delivering Scotland’s climate change target; there is a legal commitment to which the FGS contributes. The target was to plant 10,000 hectares annually. The level of new woodland would absorb almost 15% of total annual emissions. This was not achieved in the first two years of the SRDP 2014-2020 due to a lag caused by the transition from the 2007-2013 programming period to the current Programme, though the evaluators have been told that planting started to catch up from 2017 onwards.

Plantation forests are dominated by Sitka Spruce, but beneficiaries were encouraged to use a wider range of species which are more climate-resilient.

In terms of the conservation of carbon, the focus was on existing woodland through increasing species diversity and adaptation to climate change and removing threats such as browsing mammals and non-native species such as rhododendron. If landowners could overcome these threats, it would secure the future of these woodlands and the carbon that they lock up.

Estimates of the amount of carbon sequestered come from a model that brings together two elements. This was explained to evaluators conducting the enhanced AIR 2016. First, a typology (nine categories) of woodland plantation/commercial forestry that have different specifications and carbon sequestration potentials; and second, the numbers of hectares planted of each type. Account is taken of the lower growth rate in specific geographical regions, such as the Highlands and Islands. In view of the interest in net changes in woodland area, the National Forest Inventory measures the overall change in forested area. However, deforestation is much less of an issue in Scotland than in England.

The FGS evaluation is currently in draft form. Early findings include that the FGS has supported significant woodland creation which will in time lead to substantial carbon sequestration (but actual carbon sequestration to date is minimal because very young trees do not grow very quickly; it takes 15 years before significant carbon uptake occurs). However, the FGS has perhaps, had very little impact on supporting better management of carbon stocks in existing forests. Further research is planned to better understand the impacts achieved.

Other scheme contribution to FA 5E

Farm Advisory Service

The FAS contributed to carbon conservation and sequestration though advice delivered to farmers. Woodlands were a topic under the FAS one-to-many function, with all aspects of woodland establishment, management and harvesting addressed.

The FAS contributed to this FA by encouraging good soil management practices on high carbon soils and by encouraging good farm woodland practices. Activities related to common grazings and peatland restoration events, as well as Carbon Audits.

The FAS signposted clients towards the other delivery components in the SRDP that dealt directly with this issue (such as the FGS). Again, the translation of advice into impacts is important and the extent to which this took place is limited due to self-reporting.

The FAS specifically supported farm Carbon Audits by reviewing enterprises and use of fuels in considerable detail. Stakeholders pointed to the possible losses to biodiversity, landscapes, and other environmental and cultural benefits if too much emphasis is given to carbon sequestration within forestry policy.

EKOS conclusions and recommendations

The SRDP, principally though the FGS (Measure 8), has supported carbon conservation and sequestration and did this through the planting of new woodland, with better management of existing woodland providing some additional impact. A contribution was also made under the FAS (Measure 2).

The FGS aimed to reduce the impacts of climate change and provide timber for industry, as well as ensuring that Scotland’s forests enhanced and protected the environment and provided opportunities for public enjoyment. It provided grant support for a range of activities that supported the creation of new woodlands; improvement and sustainable management of existing woodlands; tree health; and rural development. This is in line with the UK Forestry Standard’s three pillars of Sustainable Forest Management: Environmental, Economic and Social.

The purpose of the FGS evaluation was to answer relevant EC CEQs by analysing whether the FGS has met its original aims and objectives during the initial term of 2015 to 2021. The draft evaluation report states that the total predicted carbon sequestered by 2045, for woodlands created with FGS funding up to 2021 (inclusive), is 8,017,083 tonnes.

It is recommended that information is made available on net changes in woodland area, and that modelled estimates of carbon sequestration and conservation are made available to allow this question to be addressed more directly. The final FGS evaluation will be critical in assessing impact and outlining the next steps for supporting carbon conservation and sequestration.