Scottish Rural Development Programme 2014-2020: ex-post evaluation - main report

25. Raising the employment rate

This chapter answers CEQ 22: To what extent has the RDP contributed to achieving the EU 2020 headline target of raising the employment rate of the population aged 20 to 64 to at least 75%?

Response

At the time of reporting, the SG was not able to provide the employment rate data for Scotland at the start of the Programme.

Employment data for 2020 supplied by the SG shows an overall employment rate in Scotland of 76.3% for people aged 20 to 64, see Table 25.1. Other points to note include that the employment rate in Scotland in 2020 was:

• higher than the EU 2020 headline target of at least 75%, with the exception of for females (at all levels).
• higher in rural areas (77.8%) than in urban areas (75.9%).
• higher for males than it was for females in Scotland as a whole and in rural and urban areas.

Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec 2020, ONS

Notes:

1. 2-fold Scottish Government Urban Rural Classification 2020

2. Estimates are for age groups specified in the table.

3. Employment rates use the specified age group population as the denominator.

4. Rates are rounded to one decimal place.

5. Rates are based on unrounded numbers.

6. Data is subject to sampling variability.

7. The method used to calculate population weights on the Annual Population Survey does not take into consideration data zone geographies and as such any estimates produced using data zones as building blocks may not provide a true representation of the labour market conditions in the area described and should be used with caution.

8. When interpreting results users should be aware of the potential effect of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on January to December 2020 and January to December 2021 estimates. During these periods employers were able to claim Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme support for employees. Self-employed workers could make claims through the Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS).

Employment data supplied by the SG shows an overall employment rate of 77.2% in 2023 for people aged 20-64 from the 2020 position, see Table 25.2. Generally, the 2023 data shows an upward improvement from the 2020 position.

Other points to note include that the employment rate in Scotland in 2023 was:

• higher than the EU 2020 headline target of at least 75%, with the exception of for females (at a Scotland and urban Scotland level).
• higher in rural areas (79.2%) than in urban areas (76.8%).
• higher for males than it was for females in Scotland as a whole and in rural and urban areas.

Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec 2023, ONS

Notes:

1. 2-fold Scottish Government Urban Rural Classification 2020

2. Estimates are for age groups specified in the table.

3. Employment rates use the specified age group population as the denominator.

4. Rates are rounded to one decimal place.

5. Rates are based on unrounded numbers.

6. Data is subject to sampling variability.

7. The method used to calculate population weights on the Annual Population Survey does not take into consideration data zone geographies and as such any estimates produced using data zones as building blocks may not provide a true representation of the labour market conditions in the area described and should be used with caution.

It is unlikely that the SRDP could have made a substantial contribution to raising the employment rate of the population aged 20-64 as a whole in the period to 2023.

Employment is influenced by a much wider range of factors, including structural factors, and it is also important to consider the impact the COVID-19 pandemic had on employment in Scotland and globally.

According to other data provided by the SG, the following jobs have been reported through SRDP monitoring processes:

• 17 jobs created by expenditure under FA 6A - ongoing commitments from the 2007-2013 Programme relating to RP.
• 523 jobs created under FA 6B - via LEADER.
• the main contribution to jobs has come from the FPMC scheme - a total of 8,995 jobs^[29] were either safeguarded or created as a result of the FPMC.

Further, approximately 190 FTE jobs are forecast to be created primarily via the FGS Harvesting and Processing grant scheme as well as from the Woodland Creation Project. It should, however, be noted that these are forecast FTEs and not actual achieved.

In addition, jobs may have been either supported or created indirectly under other schemes, and in the delivery process itself. For example, about 500 people were involved with delivering LEADER across Scotland.

SG officials also reported that schemes such as LFASS, CAGS, NESUGS, and YFSUGS may have contributed (albeit in a small way) to maintaining employment by supporting the continuation of farming and crofting. Job retention is considered particularly important in the context of ensuring the sustainability and viability of rural and remote communities.

EKOS conclusion

The SRDP 2014-2020 has contributed to achieving the EU 2020 headline target of raising the employment rate of the population aged 20-64 to at least 75% or beyond, but only to a small extent.