Scottish Rural Development Programme 2014-2020: ex-post evaluation - main report

27. Climate change mitigation and adaption

This chapter answers CEQ 24: To what extent has the RDP contributed to climate change mitigation and adaptation and to achieving the EU 2020 headline target of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 20% compared to 1990 levels, or by 30% if the conditions are right, to increasing the share of renewable energy in final energy consumption to 20%, and achieving 20% increase in energy efficiency?

Response

Scottish Greenhouse Gas Statistics 2022 show that source emissions were down by 50.1% in 2022 compared to 1990.

Using the new method of reporting emissions for the purposes of monitoring performance against targets sets out in the Climate Change (Emission Reduction Target) (Scotland) Act 2019, GHG emissions are down 50.0% from the baseline period (1990). This falls short of the target specified in the Act of a 53.8% reduction.

GHG emissions from agriculture amounted to 19.0% of the total in 2022 (7.7 MtCO2e). This is down from 23.9% of the total in 2017.

The material needed to answer this question is largely contained in answers to previous CEQs.

Various activities supported under the SRDP were designed to have direct impacts in terms of reducing GHG and ammonia emissions from agriculture (see CEQ 14) and in fostering carbon conservation and sequestration in agriculture and forestry (see CEQ 15). Indirect impacts are also expected via increasing the efficiency of energy use in agriculture and food processing (see CEQ 12) and by increasing the supply of renewable energy (CEQ 13). Key support for these actions was provided through knowledge transfer and advice activities.

The conclusion in respect of CEQ 14 was that SRDP interventions, which principally took the form of grants to support investment, advice, and projects, have contributed to reducing GHG and ammonia emissions from agriculture, but the extent of this cannot currently be quantified. The evidence for this direction of change focuses on outputs and assumed relationships within the intervention logic, rather than impacts directly, and it will be necessary in the future to consider a direct approach to impacts.

Our conclusion in respect of CEQ 15 was that the SRDP, principally though the FGS (Measure 8), has supported carbon conservation and sequestration and has done this through the planting of new woodland, with better management of existing woodland providing some additional impact. The draft FGS evaluation reports that the total predicted carbon sequestered by 2045, for woodlands created with FGS funding up to 2021 (inclusive), is 8,017,083 tonnes.

A contribution was also made under the FAS (Measure 2). It was previously recommended that the SG make information available on net changes in woodland area (though loss of woodland area is less of a problem in Scotland than in England) and that modelled estimates of carbon sequestration and conservation are made available to the evaluators to allow this question to be addressed more directly.

In answering CEQ 12, we concluded that SRDP interventions have the potential to contribute to increasing efficiency in energy use in agriculture and food processing and may have done so through the FAS. However, the extent of the impact cannot currently be assessed. Further, relevant information from KTIF project reports and Carbon Audit action plans had not been collated.

Finally, under CEQ 13, we concluded that SRDP interventions have potentially contributed to the supply and use of renewable sources of energy, of by-products, wastes, residues, and other non-food raw material for purposes of the bio-economy. However, evidence on changes made on-farm and the impacts of these changes were not available.

EKOS conclusion

Mitigating climate change is clearly an important theme within the SRDP 2014-2020 and there has been a contribution to a reduction in GHG and ammonia emissions. There has also been a contribution to carbon sequestration and capture. Hence the SRDP 2014-2020 is judged by the evaluators to be contributing to climate change mitigation and adaptation and to achieving the EU 2020 headline target of reducing GHG emissions, to increasing the share of renewable energy in final energy consumption to 20% and achieving 20% increase in energy efficiency. However, the true extent of this contribution cannot at present be quantified.