Scottish Study of Early Learning and Childcare: phase 4 report

1. Introduction

1.1 Background

This report outlines findings from the surveys conducted as part of the fourth phase of the Scottish Study of Early Learning and Childcare (SSELC). Together, the SSELC surveys form a major part of the strategy for the evaluation of the expansion of funded early learning and childcare (ELC) in Scotland. Details of the Evaluation Strategy were published by the Scottish Government in October 2022. This set out plans to evaluate the impact of the expansion of funded ELC from 600 to 1140 hours (referred to as "the expansion of funded ELC") on outcomes for children, parents and carers,^[1] and families.

The ELC Expansion Programme

From August 2021 the entitlement to funded ELC in Scotland increased from 600 to 1140 hours per year for all three- and four-year-olds, and eligible two-year-olds. This means families can access up to 30 hours of funded ELC per week per child in term time, or around 22 hours spread across the calendar year. This increase follows a number of smaller expansions since the introduction of funded ELC in 2002. Two-year-olds are currently eligible for funded ELC if they are care experienced or have a parent who is, or if a parent is in receipt of one or more qualifying benefits. Local authorities can also provide discretionary access to funded ELC to any other child, as they see fit.^[2]

The Strategic Childcare Plan for 2022-2026 was also published in October 2022. This set out Scottish Government's vision for ELC and school age childcare, including planned actions to realise the benefits of the expansion to 1140 hours of funded ELC. It highlights three expected outcomes for the way in which ELC policy is expected to make a difference for children and families in Scotland.

1. Children's development improves and the poverty-related outcomes gap narrows

2. Family wellbeing improves

3. Parents' and carers' opportunities to take up or sustain work, study or training increase

The Scottish Study of Early Learning and Childcare

The SSELC has been designed to provide key evidence on whether the ELC expansion has achieved the above objectives. It does this by measuring outcomes for children and parents receiving the current entitlement of 1140 hours and comparing them to those who received the previous entitlement of 600 hours. The Evaluability Assessment and Evaluation Strategy for the expansion of funded ELC provide details of how SSELC findings will be considered alongside other sources of information to assess the contribution and effectiveness of the ELC expansion in relation to the above aims.

Aims of the SSELC

Specifically, the aims of the SSELC are to assess the extent to which the expansion from 600 hours to 1140 hours has:

• improved outcomes for children between the ages of two and five, particularly those at risk of disadvantage.
• closed the gap in child development outcomes between children who are most and least disadvantaged between the ages of two and five.
• improved outcomes for parents, particularly parents of children at risk of disadvantage.
• increased family wellbeing, particularly for families in disadvantaged circumstances.^[3]

Phases of data collection

The SSELC is collecting data across six phases from 2018 to 2024. During 2018-19, phases 1 to 3 collected baseline data on the outcomes of samples of children and their parents accessing 600 hours of funded ELC. During 2023-24, phases 4 to 6 of the SSELC are collecting "post-expansion" data on the outcomes of samples of children and their parents accessing 1140 hours of funded ELC.

The SSELC methodology comprises three linked components at each phase:

1. an assessment of children's development by ELC keyworkers

2. a survey of parents of sampled children

3. observations by Care Inspectorate staff of the quality of experience within ELC settings attended by sampled children.

A fourth component – a survey of heads or managers of settings attended by sampled children – was introduced in this phase (Phase 4), and will be continued through the subsequent post-expansion phases. This survey is to gather information about their experiences of the impact of the expansion, and was therefore not relevant at the earlier phases.

The SSELC is both a longitudinal and cross-sectional study. In the longitudinal element of the study, data were collected at Phase 1 on a cohort of two-year-olds (and their parents) who were eligible for funded ELC when they began accessing their funded entitlement. The same children were followed up at Phase 3 after they had received one year of ELC. Post-expansion, data were collected at Phase 4 on a new cohort of two-year-olds eligible for funded ELC. These children will also be followed up after one year, at Phase 6. This longitudinal element will provide evidence on the impact of one year of ELC on those children who need it most.

The cross-sectional element of the study will compare the outcomes of groups of children and their parents accessing 600 hours of funded ELC in 2018/2019, with those accessing 1140 hours in 2023/2024. This includes those two-year-olds included in phases 1 and 4, as well as further samples of three-, four- and five-year-olds collected in other phases.

Following each phase of baseline data collection, a report was published. The first three reports are available on the Scottish Government website.

Overview of Phase 4

The focus of Phase 4, being reported here, was children aged between two years and two years six months who were receiving 1140 hours of ELC provision (the "Eligible 2s"). To be eligible for funded provision of ELC at age two, children must be care experienced or have a parent who is, or be in a household in receipt of certain state benefits.^[4] Local authorities can also use their discretion to offer funded places for two-year-olds who do not meet the Scottish Government eligibility criteria. The eligibility criteria mean that most of the children included in the research were from lower income households. Those children included in the research who were not living in lower income households would be receiving funded ELC either because they are looked after or in care, or through local councils using their discretion.

The aims of Phase 4 of the SSELC were:

• To gather robust, nationally representative data on child outcomes for a sample of eligible two-year-olds who were receiving 1140 hours of funded ELC provision.
• To gather robust, nationally representative data on parent outcomes linked to the above sample of eligible two-year-olds.
• To gather data on the quality of a sample of ELC settings linked to the above sample of eligible two-year-olds.
• To gather data on support provided by settings to families of eligible two-year-olds and on the challenges faced by settings as a result of the expansion.
• To ensure the comparability of these data with data collected at Phase 1 for a cohort of eligible two-year-olds who were receiving 600 hours of funded ELC provision (in areas which participated at Phase 1).

The results from Phase 4 are the first to be published for children receiving the post-expansion entitlement of 1140 hours. They provide robust standalone evidence, representative of the experience of funded ELC for two-year-olds in need across Scotland. They will also contribute to the overall evaluation of the impact of expanded ELC provision, and form a baseline for children who will be followed up at Phase 6 of the study. This report's focus is mainly descriptive, providing a general summary of findings from the data collected and identifying some basic relationships between variables.

The data used in this report cover a wide range of parental and child outcomes, as well as information about settings. The specific outcomes of interest were:

Child

• Social, emotional and behavioural development
• Cognitive and language development
• Physical and mental health and wellbeing
• Home learning activities

Parent and family

• Employment, training or study
• Physical and mental health and wellbeing
• Parental confidence and home environment
• Parental engagement in their child's learning and development

This report is an integral component of the overall evaluation of the ELC expansion programme in Scotland. In combination with results from other reports in the series, these figures will be vital for determining whether this significant policy programme has delivered its intended outcomes. A future report will pull together the findings from all six phases.

1.2 Methods

Sampling

The sample consisted of children aged between two years and two years six months who were receiving up to 1140 hours of government-funded or local-authority-funded ELC provision, and the parents of those children. The ages of the children involved matched the ages of the children who participated at Phase 1. Participants were recruited via ELC settings in 31 local authority areas. All group settings^[5] providing funded ELC for two-year-olds – including local authority, private and third sector settings – were eligible for inclusion in the sample.

A two-stage, "cluster" sampling approach was taken in order to identify the sample. The first stage involved the random selection of settings, and the second stage involved the random selection of children within settings. Up to 10 children were selected within each sampled setting. More details of the sampling process are provided in Appendix B.

Data collection

Data were gathered on children in the sample via two methods: a survey of parents/carers and a survey of the children's ELC keyworkers (primarily to measure child development). Data about the settings in the sample were also collected, including observations carried out by Care Inspectorate inspectors^[6] and a survey of setting heads.

Parents of selected children were contacted by ELC staff and provided with information about the study. They were then asked to complete a paper questionnaire^[7] that collected a wide range of information about themselves, their child and their household. Parents were also asked for their permission for the child's keyworker to complete a questionnaire about their child. This largely consisted of the Ages and Stages (ASQ) and Strengths and Difficulties (SDQ)^[8] questionnaires, but also collected administrative information, including the number of hours the child attended the ELC setting in the previous week.

Fieldwork was conducted between October and December 2023. Questionnaires were sent to 305 settings^[9].

• At least one questionnaire was returned for 509 children in 152 settings (75% of which were local authority settings, 17% private and 8% voluntary), including 495 keyworker questionnaires and 341 parent questionnaires; 327 children had both questionnaires completed. Data for nine unpaired keyworker questionnaires were removed as it was not clear from the information provided by the settings that the parents were aware that the observations were taking place.
• Estimated response rates were 29% for the parent questionnaire, 41% for the keyworker questionnaire and 27% for both.^[10]
• Setting observations were conducted in 149 settings.^[11]
• The setting heads' questionnaire was completed by 157 setting heads.^[12]

Nearly all the parent questionnaires (91%) were completed by the child's mother or a female carer within the household. Therefore where the terms "respondent" or "parent" are used throughout this report, they refer mostly to a mother or main female carer.

Data analysis, statistical significance and reporting conventions

Data analysis has been conducted using SPSS version 29. All analysis uses weighted data for Phase 4, except where discussing the characteristics of the cohort or the characteristics of the settings. Data is weighted so that the achieved sample better represents the population it was drawn from. Different weights were applied, depending on the variables included in the analysis (see Appendix B for more details on weighting).

Percentages are reported to the nearest whole number. However, as this is a sample survey, these figures are an estimate of the true figures within the population, and so should not be interpreted as being totally precise. A test for statistical significance allows us to tell whether two percentages we wish to compare are actually different in the population, given the amount of uncertainty we are prepared to accept in our sample. All comparisons reported in the text have been tested for statistical significance through the use of logistic regression, although levels of statistical significance are not reported. Where a difference between subgroups at Phase 4 is noted in the text, this difference is statistically significant at the 5% level.^[13] Differences which are not statistically significant are generally not reported in the text unless it is considered noteworthy that no difference can be identified in the data between the groups of concern.

In the tables, a dash (-) signifies no cases fall into the particular category, whereas a zero (0) signifies at least one case falls into that category, but less than 0.5% of all cases. Base descriptions refer to the group who were eligible for inclusion in the table. Missing data are excluded from all figures, including the base.

Supplementary tables

All figures mentioned in the text of this report can be found in a set of Excel tables in the Supporting documents. These also contain some additional data from Phase 4 of the SSELC not discussed in this report. Comments with regard to the data analysis above and the potential limitations below are applicable to these tables.

1.3 Potential limitations

Impact of Covid-19 and the cost of living crisis

The Covid-19 pandemic had a profound impact on the lives of families in Scotland. While the long-term impacts of the pandemic on families and the economy are still not known, the growing evidence from a range of research studies suggests many young children and their families have been negatively affected, especially those who were already disadvantaged.^[14] For some families, the pandemic had an impact on parental employment and household income. Increases in stress and reductions in parental wellbeing have been found, especially for mothers. For example, the Scottish Health Survey 2022 has shown that levels of wellbeing in the population have not bounced back to pre-pandemic levels.^[15]

The direct impact of the pandemic on children involved in this phase of the study should be fairly limited. The children were born between May and November 2021, after the main lockdowns. However, their parents may have experienced some restrictions in their first year in terms of maternity/post-partum care and in accessing parent support groups. The cost of living crisis which emerged in the aftermath of the pandemic is also likely to have affected many of the families.

This report does not attempt to untangle the impact of Covid and the cost of living crisis from that of the expansion of funded ELC in Scotland. Instead, the data will form a baseline, so that when children are followed up at age three (Phase 6) the change in outcomes following a year of funded ELC will contribute to the overall evaluation of the expansion.

Sample sizes

Response rates at Phase 4 were lower than predicted. Sample sizes have therefore been increased for Phases 5 and 6 of the study. The achieved sample for Phase 4 is lower than planned, hence the analysis is less likely to find statistically significant results. However, it remains sufficiently large to identify differences in outcomes between key subgroups, such as boys and girls, and those living in deprived areas compared with those living in other areas.