Sectoral marine plan for offshore wind energy: context report

4 Projected Electricity Demand

4.1.1 To meet the 2050 carbon reduction target, heating needs to move away from natural gas and use low carbon sources. This change will primarily need to occur through the electrification of heating. The growth in electric vehicles ( EVs) will also have a significant impact on demand.

4.1.2 Based on scenario modelling undertaken by National Grid ^[10] , peak UK electricity demand is expected to rise from around 62 GW in 2016 to between 65-85 GW by 2050. This includes a forecast requirement for UK offshore wind capacity of between 8-18 GW by 2025 and 16-30 GW by 2050 (equivalent to around 50-100 TWh). Separately, the Energy Technologies Institute estimates that UK offshore wind deployment could reach 20-55 GW by 2050 ^[11] .

4.1.3 For Scotland, the National Grid scenarios suggest a total Scottish generating capacity of between 15 and 25 GW by 2035 (10-20 GW low carbon generation) ^[12] . With demand in Scotland not expected to exceed 4.7 GW by 2035 (which is much less than the Scottish generation capacity), there is potential for export of power south, out of Scotland into England, for a significant amount of time.