Sectoral Marine Plan: roadmap of actions

4. Ongoing research of relevance to ScotWind Plan Options

At present, there is extensive ongoing research on seabirds and their interactions with offshore wind farms in Scottish waters. Much of this has been summarised in the Offshore Environmental Evidence Register (OWEER)^[8] led by JNCC and funded by the Crown Estate. This work can broadly be broken down into three categories 1) new data collection; 2) the review and analysis of existing data and information; and 3) developing new tools and framework. The work has been funded by a range of organisations including developers as part of post-construction monitoring programmes, strategic funding bodies (e.g., ORJIP, OWSMRF), government (e.g., ScotMER) and research councils (e.g., NERC). The key research of relevance to Scottish waters is summarised below.

4.1 New data collection

4.1.1 Tracking

At present, there are several seabird tracking projects taking place at Scottish colonies, informing on seabird activity in Scottish waters. In addition to funding from governmental bodies, such as Marine Scotland, many have been funded by industry directly through monitoring projects tied to specific offshore wind farms. There are several long-established breeding season tracking projects in the Forth Islands SPA covering kittiwakes, gannets, guillemots, and razorbills (e.g., Cleasby et al. 2015, Wakefield et al. 2017). In summer 2021, further studies were carried out on kittiwakes within the Fowlsheugh, St. Abbs Head to Fast Castle, and Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPAs, with additional studies on small petrels within the Treshnish Isles and St. Kilda SPAs.

Outside the breeding season, work is underway using geolocators and time-depth recorders to investigate the wintering locations and foraging behaviour of red-throated divers breeding in the Northern Isles, and of Guillemots and Razorbills breeding within several colonies in Scotland and England. In addition to this, a trial is underway to test harnesses for kittiwakes with a view to enabling longer term GPS deployment and a finer scale assessment of habitat use outside the breeding season.

A final project, recently funded by the Offshore Wind Evidence and Change (OWEC) Programme, is a feasibility study for developing and deploying MOTUS tags on gannets and kittiwakes to assess connectivity with offshore wind farms and gain a better understanding of demographic parameters such as dispersal and survival.

Current and recently completed seabird tracking projects of relevance to ScotWind Plan Option Areas

• Species: Leach's Petrel
• Tag: GPS + Geolocator
• Season: Breeding + Non-breeding
• Location(s): St Kilda SPA
• Funder(s)/ Commissioners: EMFF/ Marine Scotland

• Species: European Storm-petrel
• Tag: GPS + Geolocator
• Season: Breeding + Non-breeding
• Location(s): Treshnish Isles SPA
• Funder(s)/ Commissioners: EMFF/ Marine Scotland

• Species: Gannet
• Tag: GPS
• Season: Breeding
• Location(s): Forth Islands SPA
• Funder(s)/ Commissioners: BEIS SEA

• Species: Gannet
• Tag: GPS
• Season: Breeding
• Location(s): Forth Islands SPA
• Funder(s)/ Commissioners: Neart na Gaoithe, Seagreen and Berwick Bank

• Species: Kittiwake
• Tag: GPS
• Season: Breeding
• Location(s): Forth Islands SPA, Fowlsheugh SPA, St Abbs Head to Fast Castle SPA
• Funder(s)/ Commissioners: Neart na Gaoithe, Seagreen

• Species: Kittiwake
• Tag: GPS
• Season: Breeding
• Location(s): Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA
• Funder(s)/ Commissioners: Vattenfall

• Species: Lesser Black-backed Gull
• Tag: GPS
• Season: Breeding
• Location(s): Forth Islands SPA
• Funder(s)/ Commissioners: BEIS SEA

• Species: Herring Gull
• Tag: GPS
• Season: Breeding
• Location(s): Forth Islands SPA
• Funder(s)/ Commissioners: NatureScot, Marine Scotland

• Species: Great Black-backed Gull
• Tag: GPS
• Season: Breeding
• Location(s): Forth Islands SPA *
• Funder(s)/ Commissioners: Marine Scotland

• Species: Great Black-backed Gull
• Tag: GPS
• Season: Breeding
• Location(s): East Caithness Cliffs *
• Funder(s)/ Commissioners: Moray Firth Regional Advisory Group

• Species: Guillemot
• Tag: GPS
• Season: Breeding
• Location(s): Forth Islands SPA
• Funder(s)/ Commissioners: Neart na Gaoithe, Seagreen

• Species: Razorbill
• Tag: GPS
• Season: Breeding
• Location(s): Forth Islands SPA
• Funder(s)/ Commissioners: Neart na Gaoithe, Seagreen

• Species: Red-throated Diver
• Tag: Geolocator + time depth recorder
• Season: Non-breeding
• Location(s): Orkney (including Hoy SPA) and Shetland
• Funder(s)/ Commissioners: JNCC, BEIS SEA, Industry, The Crown Estate

• Species: Guillemot
• Tag: Geolocator
• Season: Non-breeding
• Location(s): Colonsay, Treshnish Isles, Canna, Shiant Islands, Foula, Fair Isle, Orkney, East Caithness Cliffs, Whinnyfold, Isle of May, Farne Islands
• Funder(s)/ Commissioners: Vattenfall, Equinor, SEATRACK, Marine Scotland

• Species: Razorbill
• Tag: Geolocator
• Season: Non-breeding season
• Location(s): Colonsay, Treshnish Isles, Canna, Shiant Islands, Foula, Fair Isle, Orkney, East Caithness Cliffs, Whinnyfold, Isle of May, Farne Islands
• Funder(s)/ Commissioners: Vattenfall, Equinor, SEATRACK, Marine Scotland

• Species: Kittiwake**
• Tag: PTT
• Season: Non-breeding season
• Location(s): Buchan Ness – Collieston Coast SPA
• Funder(s)/ Commissioners: Vattenfall, BEIS OSEA

• Species: Kittiwake, Gannet***
• Tag: Motus
• Season: Year-round
• Location(s):
• Funder(s)/ Commissioners: OWEC

* Pending further development of capture and tagging methodology

** Trial of long-term tag attachment for kittiwake

*** Trial of MOTUS Tracking to collect demographic & connectivity data in Kittiwake

4.1.2 Collision Monitoring

Building on the ORJIP Bird Collision Avoidance study (ORJIP BCA Skov et al., 2018), a further three collision monitoring projects are either underway, or planned for Scottish Offshore Wind Farms. These include a project at the European Offshore Wind Development Centre (EOWDC) making use of the same MUSE system that was used as part of the ORJIP BCA (Tjomlov et al., 2021) and a project at Kincardine Offshore Wind Farm using the DT Bird system. Results from the EOWDC study are expected in spring 2022. A third study is planned for Neart na Gaoith Offshore Wind Farm in 2023.

Ongoing collision monitoring projects in Scottish waters

• Location: European Offshore Wind Development Centre (Aberdeen Bay)
• System: MUSE – combined camera-radar system
• Status: Reporting Autumn 2022

• Location: Kincardine
• System: DT Bird HD & Thermal Cameras
• Status: Ongoing

• Location: Neart na Gaoithe
• System: STRIX radar and camera system
• Status: Planned deployment 2023

4.1.3 Other monitoring

Other monitoring taking place includes colony monitoring (survival and productivity) of kittiwakes, guillemots, razorbills, and gannets within the Forth Islands, Fowlsheugh and St. Abbs Head to Fast Castle SPAs. There is also a planned trial of cameras to monitor puffin nest attendance at East Caithness Cliffs SPA as part of the post-construction monitoring of Beatrice Offshore Wind Farm. A final, recently completed study, assessed the feasibility of widescale deployment of colour rings on kittiwakes (O'Hanlon et al., 2021)

4.1.4 Surveys

There have been digital aerial surveys as part of post-construction monitoring at Beatrice and Kincardine Offshore Wind Farms, with post-consent digital aerial surveys carried out at Seagreen and Neart na Gaoithe and further surveys planned for the post-construction periods. In addition to this, regional scale digital aerial surveys have been carried out encompassing the broad Firth of Forth and Tay region on behalf of Neart na Gaoithe, Inch Cape, Seagreen and Berwick Bank Wind Farms. It is also apparent that digital aerial surveys have been carried out in relation to some, or all, of the ScotWind Plan Option Areas. However, for reasons of commercial confidentiality, it is not clear exactly which sites have been surveyed, or what protocols have been followed at this stage. Finally, a survey combining LiDAR and digital still photography has been carried out in and around Beatrice Offshore Wind Farm with a view to collecting data on species flight heights and investigating how these may vary in relation to distance from turbines.

Surveys underway in Scottish waters

• Site: Beatrice Offshore Wind Farm
• Methodology: Digital Aerial Survey
• Project Status: Post-construction

• Site: Kincardine Offshore Wind Farm
• Methodology: Digital Aerial Survey
• Project Status: Post-construction

• Site: Seagreen
• Methodology: Digital Aerial Survey
• Project Status: Post-consent

• Site: Neart na Gaoithe
• Methodology: Digital Aerial Survey
• Project Status: Post-consent

• Site: Firth of Forth and Tay Region (encompassing Neart na Gaoithe, Inch Cape, Seagreen and Berwick Bank)
• Methodology: Digital Aerial Survey
• Project Status: Post-consent

• Site: ScotWind Sites*
• Methodology: Digital Aerial Survey
• Project Status: Baseline data collection

• Site: INTOG developers*
• Methodology: Digital Aerial Survey
• Project Status: Baseline data collection

• Site: Beatrice Offshore Wind Farm & elsewhere in Moray Firth
• Methodology: Combined LiDAR and Digital Aerial Survey
• Project Status: Post-construction

*Whilst it is apparent that some surveys have been undertaken by developers, at this stage, for reasons of commercial confidentiality, it is unclear which sites have been covered. However, it is assumed that the majority of Scot Wind Sites have pre-application baseline surveys underway.

4.2 Reviews and analyses of existing data and information

4.2.1 Data analyses

Analyses of the tracking data being collected as part of the studies highlighted above aim to generate a better understanding of the behaviour of the species concerned, particularly in relation to parameters such as flight speed and height, which are relevant to the assessment of collision risk. In addition, both the GPS and geolocation data aim to give a better understanding of the distribution of species in relation to offshore wind farms in the breeding and non-breeding seasons. Further analysis of GPS data, as part of a project funded by Marine Scotland and Crown Estate Scotland, will generate refined estimates of nocturnal activity and behaviour-specific (foraging and commuting) estimates of flight speed and flight heights for gannet, kittiwake, and lesser black-backed gulls. Finally, work is underway to develop refined estimates of mortality for displaced birds.

4.2.2 Reviews

Understanding the impacts of offshore wind farms on petrels and shearwaters is a knowledge gap in relation to some of the northern Plan Option Areas. To address this, two complementary reviews are underway. The first of these, funded by the Offshore Wind Strategic Monitoring and Research Fund (OWSMRF) considers monitoring both at colonies and at sea to get a better understanding on population trends, demography, at sea distribution and behaviour. The second, funded by Marine Scotland^[9], aims to explore impact pathways and potential mitigation options, to understand how factors such as turbine lighting may influence the species collision risk, and what options may exist to mitigate this.

Recently completed work has reviewed avoidance rates for collision risk models (Cook, 2021), with further work currently underway to critically appraise the recommendations arising from that review.

4.3 Developing Tools and Frameworks

As the offshore wind industry has developed, more data have become available with which to understand the potential impacts on the environment. Consequently, there is growing interest in developing tools with which to make best use of these data and enable a more robust assessment of environmental impacts.

Sensitivity mapping is a valuable tool for identifying areas where there may be a risk of negative impacts from offshore wind farms on seabirds. Work is currently underway to extend the existing Marine Scotland Sensitivity Mapping Tool (Searle et al., 2019) to cover additional species and a broader geographic area. In addition to this, two projects recently funded by OWEC^[10] aim to deliver an improved understanding of the drivers of seabird distribution at sea. The POSEIDON project aims to deliver an improved understanding of the baseline distribution of key species to help guide future development. The PrePARED project aims to deliver a better understanding of how seabirds and other marine top predators will respond to changes in the distribution of key prey species as a result of offshore wind farm construction and operation.

Collision risk is seen as a key concern in relation to future offshore wind development. An online RShiny App has been developed to make a stochastic assessment of collision risk to seabirds (McGregor et al., 2018). Work is currently underway to improve the functionality and flexibility of this app, and to develop a complementary RShiny App for the assessment of collision risk in migrating birds^[11]. This work is due to complete in autumn 2022.

To understand the population level consequences of the impacts associated with offshore wind farms, these must be apportioned back to the populations concerned. A variety of tools exist to do this drawing from sources such as tracking data (Wakefield et al., 2017a) and reviews of species foraging ranges (Woodward et al., 2019). The Marine Scotland Apportioning Tool (Butler et al., 2020) offers a means to apportion impacts back to breeding colonies for four species – kittiwake, shag, guillemot and razorbill – during the breeding season based on analyses of GPS tracking data. Further work is underway to extend this approach to lesser black-backed gulls, and to develop a similar approach to apportioning for guillemot and razorbill outside the breeding season.

In addition to the tools above for sensitivity mapping (Searle et al., 2019), collision risk modelling (McGregor et al., 2018) and apportioning (Butler et al., 2020), others exist for population viability analysis (Searle et al., 2019) and the assessment of displacement (Searle et al., 2018). To facilitate robust cumulative impact assessment, it was recognised that there was a need to bring all of these tools together within a single framework, alongside the data that underpin them. The project to deliver this Cumulative Effects Framework^[12] is due to report in summer 2022.

As the number of offshore wind farms increases, the potential for significant, negative cumulative impacts also increases, and after consideration derogation could be triggered under the Habitat Directives. To complement this Roadmap, an additional project is developing a framework with which to assess the efficacy and appropriateness of compensatory measures proposed to compensate for any negative impacts associated with offshore wind development.

In addition to the projects described above, there are two ongoing PhD projects that are of strategic relevance to the ScotWind project. The first of these is the development of an individual based model with which to assess the impact of offshore wind farms on gannets based at the University of Leeds and is due to complete in spring 2022. The second is an investigation of kittiwake metapopulation modelling, which has started in 2021 at the University of Aberdeen.