Single-Use Disposable Beverage Cups Charge Strategic Environmental Assessment: Environmental Report

5. Assessment of likely environmental impacts

5.1 Key variables

The environmental impact of a charge on single-use disposable beverage cups is highly dependent on a number of variables, some of which are unknown. For instance, the resultant change in demand for single-use disposable beverage cups; the mass, material and recycled content of the cups in question; the disposal method; the number of times the average consumer reuses their reusable cup; and the method of washing.

Given the unknowns in this area, this assessment is dependent upon a number of assumptions, which are set out throughout this section. Where appropriate, the assessment has been conducted against three different potential scenarios to acknowledge the uncertainty of the underlying assumptions.

5.2 Anticipated behaviour change

A Resource Futures report commissioned by Zero Waste Scotland in 2022^[68] sets out the following scenarios for the expected change in demand for single-use beverage cups resulting from the introduction of a 25 pence charge. Results cover a 10-year period from 2025-2035, and are measured against a baseline of increase in demand over 10 years.

Scenario 1: 15.4% reduction in the number of single-use beverage cups placed on the market (POM) by 2035, which is equal to 62.1 million single-use disposable beverage cups. This is 24.4% less than estimated for the same year (medium baseline estimate) if a charge wasn’t implemented.

Scenario 2: 28.3% reduction in the number of single-use beverage cups placed on the market by 2035, which is equal to 114.2 million single-use disposable beverage cups. This is 36% less than estimated for the same year (medium baseline estimate) if a charge wasn’t implemented.

Scenario 3: 39.4% reduction in the number of single-use beverage cups placed on the market by 2035, which is equal to 159.4 million single-use disposable beverage cups. This is 45.9% less than estimated for the same year (medium baseline estimate) if a charge wasn’t implemented.

The underlying annual changes in demand under the three scenarios set out above are as follows. It should be noted that the percentages presented below represent a year-on-year decrease in cup consumption for each of the given periods.

	Scenario 1	Scenario 2	Scenario 3
Decrease in single-use disposable beverage cups POM in 2026 and 2027	3% per year	6.5% per year	10% per year
Decrease in single-use disposable beverage cups POM in 2028 and 2029	2% per year	3.5% per year	5% per year
Decrease in single-use disposable beverage cups POM in 2030-2035	1% per year	2% per year	3% per year

The magnitude of these estimates is in line with a 2021 study published by WRAP^[69], which reaches an assumption that a charge of 25 pence per single-use item can be expected to lead, on average, to a 7.5% increase in the take-up of reusable alternatives, displacing single-use items. The items in question in this study are fibre cups, plastic cups, and fibre based food packaging. The study assumes that the use of single-use cups (or containers) reduces in line with the increase in take-up of reusable alternatives, and that total food and drinks sold per year are not impacted by the introduction of such charges. It is noted, however, that this may be a conservative estimate since sales may be impacted if total purchase prices rise as a consequence of these charges, as is likely.

5.3 Climatic factors

The environmental impact of using reusable cups instead of single-use disposable beverage cups depends on the number of times a reusable cup is used. The exact number required for environmental net benefit is sensitive to a number of factors including what the cup is made from, how the cups are washed, and the method of disposal of single-use beverage cups. The review also finds that reusable cups can have a lower carbon impact, even if very high recycling rates of single-use disposable beverage cups could be achieved.

The results from a selection of studies are compared in the table below to compare the carbon impacts of certain single-use disposable beverage cups and reusable alternatives.

Table 3: Summary of results from life cycle analysis studies comparing single-use and reusable cups

Source	Number of uses assumed	Impact of single-use cup (g CO2e)	Impact per use of reusable cup(s) (g CO2e)	Comments
Edge (2018)[70]	250	36.8(paper) – 65.6 (compostable)	8.4 (KeepCup The Brew Cork) – 17.2(Polypropylene)	Disposal mix not representative of Scotland (results represent an average across geographic zones Australia, USA, and Europe)
Foteinis (2020)[71]	500	29.9 (paper)	9.2 (Polypropylene with silicone band)	Assumes disposal by landfill
CupClub (2018)[72]	132	60.5(PLA) – 65.2 (paper)	32.3 (CupClub polypropylene cup with low density polyethylene lid) – 38.9 (ceramic)	Returnable packaging service using RFID technology (now known as Club Zero) N.B. fewer uses assumed
Martin, Bunsen and Ciroth (2018)[73]	750	52.9 (paper)	Using dishwasher: 1.5 (ceramic mug) – 1.8(ceramic portable cup with lid) Handwashing: 4.9 (ceramic mug) – 7.1 (ceramic cup with lid)	N.B. Greater number of uses assumed
Intertek (2020)[74]	N/A s	26.2 (recycled ‘Frugal Cup’) – 33.1 (paper)	N/A – study compares disposable options only	Incineration scenario quoted here (as opposed to headline results of study which assume landfill).
University of Exeter[75]	N/A	N/A	0.3 plus washing impacts	This does not include impacts of washing. Scaled down to one use from an assumed 500 uses over lifetime for comparison.
Hope Solutions [76]	75	17.2 (paper) – 70.0(plastic)	8.4 (reusable plastic) – 8.6 (reusable stainless steel)	Cold drinks cups. N.B. Lower number of uses assumed compared to other studies listed

The majority of the studies investigated above are related to the impact of a ‘coffee cup’, focusing on the use of cups for hot drinks. A study investigating the lifecycle impacts of cold beverage cups in Thailand^[77] also found that reusable cups had a lower environmental impact than single-use plastic cups for cold drinks: multiple-use stainless steel cups resulted in lower greenhouse gas emissions than PP, PET, and PLA single-use cups. These results were sensitive to the level of recycled material used in the stainless steel cups, assuming a middle scenario of 50% recycled content.

It is estimated that in Scotland, 62% of single-use disposable beverage cups are used for hot beverages and 38% cold beverages^[78].

For the purposes of this assessment, we will adopt the results from Foteinis (2020)^[79] for hot drinks cups, as this study is based on data for single-use and reusable cups in the UK, offering the most relevant scenario for Scotland and including the whole life cycle impacts, including the washing of reusable cups. We therefore assume that, over a lifetime of 500 uses, a reusable cup is responsible for greenhouse gas emissions equivalent to 4.6kg CO2e.

For the single-use equivalent, we will take the example of a fibre-based cup from the same study. The disposal scenario needs to be amended as follows to better reflect the situation in Scotland after 2025, by which time the landfilling of biodegradable municipal waste will be banned, so it is more reasonable to assume that cups will be incinerated not landfilled. It was estimated that in 2018, fewer than 0.25% of lined fibre coffee cups were recycled^[80]. Given this extremely low recycling rate, we exclude recycling from the calculations for the time being. We subtract the 11.04g CO2e per cup attributed to landfill impacts, replacing it with the net benefit of 1.6g CO2e achieved through energy recovery by incineration in Scotland (see Table 4 for a breakdown of the calculation). The resultant overall carbon impact of one single-use disposable fibre-based beverage cup is 17.2 g CO2e per cup. Over 500 uses (i.e. 500 beverages), this results in a total carbon impact of 8.6kg, 87% higher than the reusable equivalent.

Calculation of replacement carbon impact of incinerating one fibre-based cup

Mass of fibre cup (kg): 0.01200 kg

Mass of plastic lining (kg): 0.00090 kg

Carbon factor for paper and cardboard incineration (kgCO2e/kg) ^[81]: -0.26870 kg CO2e / kg

Carbon factor for plastic incineration (kgCO2e/kg)^[81]: 1.79827 kg CO2e / kg

Impact of fibre cup (kgCO2e): -0.00322 kg CO2e

Impact of plastic lining (kgCO2e): 0.00162 kg CO2e

Total impact of incinerating entire cup (kgCO2e): -0.00161 kg CO2e

For cold drinks cups, we adopt the results from Hope Solutions^[76], where a single-use plastic cup has an impact of 0.07kg CO2e, and a reusable equivalent has an impact of 0.0084kg CO2e per use, assuming a total of 75 uses. The net saving is then 61.6g CO2e per use.

On this basis, we conclude that a charge on single-use disposable beverage cups is expected to result in a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. The literature review has demonstrated that the results of life cycle assessments of single-use and reusable cups are variable, depending on the assumptions and methodology used. As the exact changes in emissions are highly sensitive to consumer behaviour and changes to the baseline recycling rate, it is not possible to determine the exact reduction in emissions that will be seen nationwide. Communications to encourage consumers to remember their reusable cups, and to opt for the most energy efficient washing methods may help to maximise the expected environmental benefits.

Environmental objectives

Reduce greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the production and disposal of single-use disposable beverage cups

The consumption (and hence corresponding production and disposal) of single-use disposable beverage cups in Scotland is predicted to fall by between 62.1 million and 159.4 million cups per annum by 2035^[82].

Related greenhouse gas emissions from the production and disposal of these cups will fall. This will be offset to an extent by the emissions associated with the production and maintenance (i.e. regular washing) of reusable cups, though a net decrease in overall emissions is anticipated.

Additional data on consumer behaviours, in particular relating to reusable cup use, would be beneficial to allow for well-informed ongoing monitoring of the emissions savings (or impact) resulting from this policy.

SEA Impact: Positive (offset to uncertain extent)

While it is not possible to quantify with certainty what the carbon impact of the proposed charge will be, it is anticipated that a net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions will be observed. This is due to an expected decrease in demand for single-use disposable beverage cups in favour of reusable alternatives, which, over their lifetime, are expected to have a lower contribution to climate change.

The studies considered in this assessment suggest that it is reasonable to expect a reduction in emissions in the region of 8g CO2e per avoided single-use cup, though this will be highly sensitive to materials used, consumer behaviour, and disposal method.

The proposed charge is therefore expected to meet the objective of reducing GHG emissions resulting from the production and disposal of single-use disposable beverage cups. The extent to which this objective is achieved should be monitored as part of the monitoring and evaluation framework described in Section 6.

5.4 Biodiversity

According to a survey by Keep Scotland Beautiful^[83], drinks cups are estimated to make up 0.5% of all litter. An estimated half a million single-use disposable coffee cups are littered every day in the UK^[84], or 4% of all cups placed on the market. Scaling this either by population for Scotland, or applying the 4% figure to the annual 388.7 million cups placed on the Scottish market gives approximately 15 million cups littered in Scotland per year.

Littered cups, lids, and sleeves can pose a threat when left in wildlife habitats due to risk of entrapment, ingestion, and leakage of microplastics. On a larger scale, small items of litter may travel from place to place by wind or water, and may carry bacteria or invasive organisms with them, taking foreign species to new or isolated regions and potentially disturbing fragile ecosystems. Litter may also negatively impact biodiversity through entanglement and ingestion. Plastic litter is estimated to lead to the mortality, either directly or indirectly, of one million seabirds, 100,000 marine mammals, including 30,000 seals, and 100,000 turtles globally every year either through entanglement or ingestion^[85].

There is evidence to suggest that littered single-use disposable beverage cups could pose a threat to habitats and their resident species through chemical migration too. For example, a study conducted in 2023 by Almroth et al^[86] examined the impacts of leachates from polypropylene cups, polystyrene lids, and polylactic acid (PLA) lined paper cups on the growth and development of aquatic midge larvae. The results of the study indicated that single-use disposable beverage cups of all materials tested could induce toxic effects in water and sediment environments. As these items are littered in the environment, they can leach toxic chemicals that may impact biota after just one week.

The aim of a charge on single-use disposable beverage cups is to reduce consumption of the targeted items, as well as shifting consumer attitudes towards the perceived value of single-use items. This is anticipated to reduce littering of these items, and in turn have a positive impact on biodiversity in Scotland, particularly in areas prone to litter.

While there may be similar environmental risks associated with plastic reusable beverage cups, these are less likely to be littered, so exposure to habitats and species is less common.

The WRAP report^[87] assumes that a 25 pence charge on single-use disposable beverage cups would reduce littering at the same rate as the drop in demand for cups in the first instance. This assumption does not consider whether those more likely to drop litter could be more likely to purchase a single-use disposable beverage cup for 25 pence instead of opting for reusable alternatives. Nor does it factor in other behaviour change interventions which may help to address littering in coming years, for example, the ambitions within the National Litter and Flytipping Strategy. For the purposes of this assessment, we will retain the assumption that 4% of the cups placed on the market will be littered, meaning the number of cups in the litter stream would decrease directly in line with reductions in the number of cups placed on the market. We assume that the same litter rate applies to lids.

It is recommended in Section 6.3 that prevalence of single-use disposable beverage cups in the litter stream is monitored as part of the ongoing monitoring and evaluation of this policy.

Assuming that littering of disposable cups and lids decreases in line with demand, by 2035 we can expect to see annual litter reductions in the region of the estimates shown in Table 5, against each scenario described in section 5.2:

Table 5 Comparison of single-use cups and lids placed on the market and littered in 2035 with and without prior implementation of charge. Results are based on Zero Waste Scotland report 'Consumption of Single-use Beverage Cups in Scotland^[88]’, with a 4% assumed litter rate applied across all scenarios for both cups and lids.

2035 Projections (1 year)		Baseline		Charge Implemented		Impact of Charge
		Cups (millions)	Lids (millions)	Cups (millions)	Lids (millions)	Cups (millions)	Lids (millions)
Scenario 1	POM	353.3	176.7	342.2	170.8	-11.1	-5.9
	Littered	14.1	7.1	13.7	6.8	-0.4	-0.2
Scenario 2	POM	450.0	225.0	290.1	151.0	-159.9	-74.0
	Littered	18.0	9.0	11.6	6.0	-6.4	-3.0
Scenario 3	POM	546.6	273.3	245.0	122.3	-301.6	-151.0
	Littered	21.9	10.9	9.8	4.9	-12.1	-6.0

A reduction in consumption of single-use disposable beverage cups as a result of the proposed charge is expected to reduce littering of these items, thus reducing the resultant damage to habitats, species, and biodiversity in Scotland.

The extraction of virgin material required to produce single-use disposable beverage cups can also have negative impacts on biodiversity due to local pollution and habitat loss, for example, unsustainable forestry management in the supply chain of paper cups can contribute heavily to biodiversity loss ^[89]. A reduction in extraction of virgin materials is likely to lead to lower impacts on habitats and species in regions where materials are extracted and processed e.g. tree felling to produce paperboard for cups. One report found that only 31% of a global sample of packaging companies reported taking any action to progress on biodiversity-related commitments^[89].

The disposal of single-use disposable beverage cups, even when not littered, can also have damaging effects on biodiversity. The Scottish Waste Environmental Footprint Tool found that in 2022, both paper and cardboard, and plastics were among the top five waste streams in terms of their impacts on biodiversity loss, contributing 11% and 8% respectively to the total biodiversity impact of household waste in 2022^[90].

Environmental objectives:

Maximise opportunities to improve the quality of natural habitats by avoiding pollution and habitat loss associated with the production and disposal of single-use disposable beverage cups in terrestrial, coastal, and marine ecosystems:

The proposed charge is expected to result in a reduction in consumption of single-use disposable beverage cups and lids, as well as a likely resultant reduction in littering of these items. The charge is therefore likely to benefit ecosystems which may be under threat from virgin material production and disposal as well as areas where cups may be littered; improving the overall quality of affected natural habitats.

Avoid adverse impacts to habitats and species resulting from littered single-use disposable beverage cups:

As the proposed charge is expected to result in a reduction in the number of single-use disposable beverage cups and lids littered in the environment, risks to habitats and species from material pollution, microplastics, and chemical leachates will be reduced.

SEA Impact: Positive

A reduction of between 62.1 and 159.4 million single-use disposable beverage cups expected to be placed on the market by 2035 is likely to lessen the associated burden on habitats and species in areas where raw materials are extracted and where manufacturing and disposal activity takes place.

As a result of between 0.4 and 12.1 million fewer single-use disposable beverage cups and between 0.2 and 6.0 million fewer lids being littered in Scotland each year after 10 years of the charge, it is anticipated that resultant environmental damage to ecosystems will be lessened due to reduced exposure to harmful leachates.

5.5 Water

The proposed charge is expected to affect water consumption in two areas:

• The water used in the production of single-use disposable beverage cups, in particular fibre-based cups: a reduction in demand for these items will reduce associated water consumption;
• The water required to regularly clean a reusable cup.

The charge is also expected to impact levels of water pollution resulting from the production, disposal, and littering of single-use disposable beverage cups.

An Edge study commissioned by KeepCup^[91] collected data on washing habits of KeepCup users through an open survey with 2,430 respondents. The survey aimed to determine the share of users that adopt machine washing, rinsing, or hand washing as the usual cleaning method for their KeepCup. 67% respondents reported that they would handwash their ‘Original’ KeepCup, 16% would rinse it, and 17% would machine wash^[92].The study found that over a year of drinking 250 coffees, the expected water use of a reusable cup was between 0.33m³ and 0.41m³. The equivalent coffee consumption over a year using 250 single-use paper or compostable cups resulted in a lower water consumption of 0.12m³ and 0.05m³ respectively. Another study^[93] found that conventional single-use paper coffee cups require 0.58 litres of water per cup, i.e. 0.29m³ for 500 beverages.

This suggests that the proposed charge could result in greater water consumption due to the cleaning requirements of reusable alternatives to single-use disposable beverage cups, though the exact difference is not certain. There is potential to reduce the water consumption associated with washing reusable cups by encouraging consumers to incorporate their reusable cups in full machine washes instead of washing by hand with hot water. Approximately 44% of Scottish households own a dishwasher^[94], while the study only assumed 5-17% consumers would machine wash their cups. In the majority of cases, reusable cups would be washed as part of a full dishwasher load: the Energy Saving Trust reported in 2013 that 77% individuals who self-reported their water use behaviours claimed to fill their dishwasher to capacity before turning it on^[95]. This suggests there is scope to reduce the water consumption associated with the use of reusable cups through encouraging consumers to machine wash them as part of a full dishwasher cycle.

However, as explored in section 5.4, single-use disposable beverage cups have been demonstrated to release harmful leachates in aquatic environments. Assuming litter reductions within the range set out in Table 5 are achieved, the proposed charge would reduce the risk of littered cups reaching and polluting bodies of water in Scotland.

Environmental objectives

Promote sustainable use of water resources in the production and maintenance of different types of beverage cups:

It is anticipated that this policy will result in an increase in the use of reusable cups. A resultant increase in water use is likely due to the regular cleaning requirements for reusable cups.

This will be offset to an extent by a reduction in the water use required in the production of single-use disposable beverage cups.

The overall net impact of the policy on water consumption is uncertain, though literature suggests that the additional water required to clean reusable cups is likely to outweigh the water use savings from reduced production of their single use counterparts.

Enhance water quality in Scotland by reducing pollution from littered single-use disposable beverage cups in bodies of water:

As the proposed charge is expected to result in a reduction in the number of single-use disposable beverage cups and lids littered in the environment, risks to water quality from material pollution and microplastic and chemical leachates in aquatic environments will be reduced.

SEA Impact: Both negative and positive effects

The proposed charge is anticipated to increase water use due to increased use of reusable beverage cups requiring regular cleaning, either by hand or in a dishwasher. This will be offset to an extent by reduced demand for single-use disposable beverage cups, and the associated water use in their production.

The charge is expected to contribute to the protection of water quality in Scotland on a local scale due to a reduction in littered single-use disposable beverage cups and a corresponding drop in associated leachates such as microplastics.

5.6 Human health

Food and beverage packaging can release a variety of substances into food and drink, and represent a source of human exposure to hazardous chemicals, for example, perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS)^[96]. PFAS are used in paper and cardboard food packaging and there is strong evidence to suggest they can have negative effects on the immune system^[97]. Suspected carcinogens were also found in paper coffee cups in a Danish consumer test in 2019^[98]. Single-use plastic cups could also be responsible for exposure to chemicals, with 853 food contact chemicals found in recycled PET in a review conducted in 2023 ^[99].

Another study found that takeaway polyethylene-coated cups and transparent polystyrene and polypropylene cups released microplastics into the contained beverages, and that release was promoted by high temperatures and, in the case of polyethylene-coated cups, enhanced by acidic carbonated beverages too^[100].

However, risks from food (and beverage) contact materials are not limited to single-use items. The 2023 review mentioned above^[99] also found 509 food contact chemicals in reusable plastic food containers, of which 372 were detected to migrate into the food (or food simulant). This experiment included polycarbonate and polypropylene (among other materials), both of which are commonly used to produce reusable beverage cups.

Other reusable materials have also been a cause for concern in recent months. The Food Standards Agency issued a notice to retailers ^[101] to inform them that they should not be selling plastic containers or utensils containing bamboo and other plant-based materials such as rice husks, wheat straw, and hemp due to concerns over their safety. A call for evidence was launched to investigate the long term safety implications of these food contact materials^[102]. The presence of bamboo (and similar plant-based matter) in plastic materials such as reusable food and drink containers was determined by the Committee on Toxicity to result in the migration of plastic components, such as formaldehyde or melamine, into food or drink above their legal limit^[101].

Use of inert materials, such as stainless steel, ceramic, and glass, may reduce exposure to food contact materials from reusable cups, as significant chemical diffusion from within these materials is not likely ^[103].

More research is needed in this area in order to draw firm conclusions on the human health impacts of changes in behaviour around the materials used to consume beverages.

If an increase in the overall cost of a beverage were to affect a consumer’s decision on whether or not to purchase the beverage at all, there could be health implications, depending on the beverage in question. However, no evidence was found to suggest that a charge on single-use disposable beverage cups would result in a drop in demand for the beverages themselves.

There may also be positive impacts on mental health and wellbeing if the charge is successful in achieving a reduction in litter. The Carnegie Trust found that those who reported the highest incidence of environmental incivilities such as litter were more likely to report anxiety, depression, poor health, smoking, and poor exercise than those with more positive views on this aspect of their local environment^[104]. Another study^[105] investigated the effect of litter on psychological reactions to marine environments. The study found that photographs of un-littered coasts tended to provide participants with a sense of happiness and less stress while photographs exhibiting littered coasts caused participants to exhibit stress and a lack of the positive psychological benefits that coastal environments normally provide.

Environmental objectives

Avoid adverse impacts to human health resulting from exposure to food contact materials:

The studies explored above suggest that there could be risks to human health from exposure to microplastics and leachates from other food contact materials. However, whether such risks are increased or decreased as a result of the proposed charge depends heavily on the reusable alternatives adopted. Materials such as glass, steel, and ceramics are known to demonstrate low levels of migration^[103], while certain plastic reusable cups (e.g. polypropylene and polycarbonate)^[106] could increase a consumer’s exposure to food contact chemicals.

SEA Impact: Uncertain

The proposed charge is expected to have an impact on the materials from which consumers are drinking beverages. As different materials will demonstrate different levels of migration, the human health impact of the proposed charge is dependent upon the material of the reusable alternatives adopted.

Some positive mental health effects may be seen among the population as a result of the charge achieving litter reductions.

5.7 Soil

Anticipated reductions in littered cups are set out in section 5.4, alongside the links between single-use disposable beverage cups and leachates of chemicals and microplastics. A reduction in the number of single-use disposable beverage cups consumed in Scotland, and a subsequent reduction in associated littering and pollution, is expected to have a positive impact on soil quality in Scotland. Impacts are expected to be localised, and the overall impact on Scotland’s soil quality is not expected to be significant.

Environmental objectives

Enhance soil quality in Scotland by reducing soil pollution (e.g. microplastics) from littered single-use disposable beverage cups

The proposed charge is likely to reduce the number of single-use disposable beverage cups littered in Scotland, and therefore lower the risk of contaminating soils with leachates such as microplastics. On a national scale, given that not all littered single-use cups will end up in contact with soils, the overall impact on soil quality is not expected to be major.

SEA Impact: Minor positive

As a result of between 0.4 and 12.1 million fewer single-use disposable beverage cups and between 0.2 and 6.0 million fewer lids being littered in Scotland each year after 10 years of the charge, it is anticipated that resultant damage to soils will be lessened due to reduced contamination e.g. from microplastics.

5.8 Material assets

According to a study commissioned by Zero Waste Scotland in 2022 ^[107], a total of 4,566.6 tonnes of material is estimated to have been placed on the Scottish market in the form of single-use disposable beverage cups in 2021-22 (including both plastic and fibre-based cups). Of the 4,566.6 tonnes material placed on the market, 1,338.8 tonnes are estimated to be plastics. In addition to the cups themselves, 583.1 tonnes of material were estimated to be placed on the market in the form of lids.

The study goes on to compare the mass of plastic estimated to be placed on the Scottish market in the year 2035 with and without the introduction of a charge in 2025. Across the three scenarios set out in section 5.2, the report estimates a reduction of between 98.6 and 1,327.2 tonnes plastic placed on the market in the form of cups and lids in 2035 as a result of the charge.

In 2018, it was estimated that only 0.25% of lined fibre coffee cups are recycled^[108]. While this could rise in future years as a result of packaging Extended Producer Responsibility requirements, significant progress is necessary in this area given the extremely low baseline. In line with the waste hierarchy, reduction in generation of waste should be prioritised over recycling. However, given the proposed charge is not anticipated to eliminate the use of single-use disposable beverage cups, efforts to improve recycling and recycled content of these items should continue.

Given the low recycling rate, a large proportion of the material placed on the market is destined for the residual waste stream. In Scotland from 2025 onwards, this will largely be incineration due to the upcoming ban on landfilling biodegradable municipal waste in December 2025.

The Zero Waste Scotland report^[107]found from a series of stakeholder interviews that a possible unintended consequence of the charge is that it could affect private companies’ desire to fund single-use disposable beverage cup recycling initiatives and reduce recycling of single-use disposable beverage cups. While it is right that, in line with the waste hierarchy, reduction and reuse should be prioritised over recycling, given the significant number of single-use disposable beverage cups that will still be placed on the market after the charge is implemented, it is important to mitigate against any unintended consequences affecting cup recycling initiatives.

Environmental objectives

Reduce consumption of virgin materials used to produce single-use disposable beverage cups:

The charge is estimated to reduce the number of single-use disposable beverage cups placed on the Scottish market by between 24.4% and 45.9%, thus reducing the amount of paperboard, plastics, and bioplastics consumed.

Maximise potential to embed a circular economy in Scotland by encouraging consumers to opt for reusable alternatives to single-use disposable beverage cups:

Introducing a financial disincentive to encourage consumers to use fewer single-use disposable beverage cups is expected to encourage circular economy behaviours as consumers who refill reusable cups instead of purchasing a disposable one will avoid the charge. This is commonly known as a ‘habit disrupter’.

Reduce loss of materials to landfill, energy recovery, or litter in the form of waste cups:

A significant proportion of single-use disposable beverage cups, in particular fibre-based cups, are disposed of by landfill or incineration (increasingly the latter after 2025 in Scotland). The anticipated reduction in single-use items consumed and ultimately disposed of or littered will mean less material is wasted in the form of discarded single-use disposable beverage cups as a result of the proposed charge.

SEA Impact: Positive

The charge is estimated to reduce the number of single-use disposable beverage cups placed on the Scottish market by between 24.4% and 45.9%, thus reducing the amount of paperboard, plastics, and bioplastics consumed and ultimately disposed of or littered. Encouraging the use of reusable alternatives to throwaway packaging will help to normalise and embed circular economy behaviours in Scotland.

5.9 Landscape and visual impacts

According to survey by Keep Scotland Beautiful^[109], drinks cups are estimated to make up 0.5% of all litter.

Furthermore, Keep Scotland Beautiful reported in their 2022 Scottish Litter Survey ^[110] that 87% respondents believed litter to be an issue across Scotland. A socioeconomic divide was identified, with 81% respondents in the deprived neighbourhoods reporting seeing litter ‘very’ or ‘somewhat’ often, compared to 68% in the least deprived neighbourhoods. The survey found that food and drink packaging was perceived to be the most frequent type of litter, and people perceived single-use drinks containers to be ‘much more’ or ‘somewhat more’ common in the past 12 months leading up to the survey. The results presented single use (hot and cold) drinks containers as the sixth most frequently sighted category of litter.

People’s perception of the neighbourhood and its effects on local residents’ wellbeing were deemed the second and third most concerning impact of litter in the survey^[110]respectively, after the impacts on animals and the environment.

Another project conducted by the Marine Conservation Society (MCS) predicts that, in a 3km radius around Oban, there will be almost 1000 single-use cups littering the shore each year^[111]. MCS Beachwatch 2022 found that plastic and polystyrene cups were recorded on 58% of the beaches cleaned in Scotland^[112].

A charge on single-use disposable beverage cups and the estimated resultant reduction in consumption of these items is likely to have a knock-in effect on the levels of cups littered in Scotland. As set out in Table 5, between 0.4 and 12.1 million fewer cups and between 0.2 and 6.0 million fewer lids are estimated to be littered in Scotland each year after 10 years of the charge.

There is an obvious link between levels of litter and positive visual impacts on Scottish landscapes. The charge is anticipated to reduce the number of single-use disposable beverage cups littered across Scottish landscapes, thus improving the visual appearance of affected areas.

Environmental objectives

Enhance the appearance of outdoor spaces in Scotland by reducing the volume of littered single-use disposable beverage cups in the environment and the associated negative visual impacts:

Due to the anticipated reduction in consumption and subsequent littering of single-use disposable beverage cups in Scotland, the proposed charge is expected to protect Scottish landscapes from the negative visual impacts of litter, thus enhancing their appearance.

SEA Impact: Positive

It is estimated that between 0.4 and 12.1 million fewer cups and between 0.2 and 6.0 million fewer lids will be littered in Scotland each year after 10 years of the charge. This is anticipated to enhance the appearance of outdoor spaces in Scotland by reducing volumes of litter which can detract from the landscape’s natural beauty. This is expected to enhance the visual impact of landscapes and outdoor spaces in Scotland.

5.10 Cumulative impacts

It is anticipated that there will be interdependencies and synergistic effects among the environmental topics explored above. For instance:

• Changes to the climate can impact biodiversity, requiring habitats and species to adapt to new conditions. Some habitats and species will degrade and suffer as a result of significant climate change. Likewise, healthy ecosystems, environments, soils, and peatlands can help to curb the effects of climate change. In this way, the emissions reductions anticipated as a result of the proposed charge will enhance the benefits experienced in Scottish ecosystems, and vice versa.
• Preserving material assets and avoiding unnecessary disposal of valuable resources will also reduce the greenhouse gas emissions from the production of new materials and the disposal of waste. This will enhance the benefits expected under climatic factors.
• The effects of the charge seen on landscape and visual impacts is directly linked to those affecting material assets: if less material is lost to the economy as litter, this means lower volumes of this material is detracting from the visual appearance of Scottish landscapes. Likewise, every piece of litter blighting these landscapes represents wasted material that’s value is lost to the circular economy.
• Cumulative impacts will be seen between soil and water. Where soils are located near bodies of water, pollution can easily spread between the two. Furthermore, the biodiversity within the habitats located here will experience benefits from improved soil and water quality. Polluted waterways and soils also pose a threat to human health if the pollution find its way into the food supply chain. Hence, we can also expect indirect benefits to human health from the charge.
• Human mental health is linked to landscape and visual impacts, as positive wellbeing impacts can be expected from litter reduction and improved visual quality of landscapes.
• Impacts on human health resulting from changes in exposure to food contact materials may also impact water: if reusable materials are repeatedly washed, leachates may find their way into water systems. Increased use of cleaning products such as detergent may also negatively impact water quality.
• Though scoped out of this assessment, some indirect impacts on air quality may arise as a result of a reduction in cups disposed of by incineration. These impacts are not expected to be significant.

The nature of the overall impacts of the proposed charge on each of the environmental topics investigated is summarised below.

Climatic Factors: +

Biodiversity: ++

Water: +/-

Human health: +/-

Soil: +

Material Assets: ++

Landscape and visual impacts: ++

Key

++: Positive impacts

+: Minor or uncertain positive impacts

+/-: Uncertain or both positive and negative impacts