Building a New Scotland: Social security in an independent Scotland

Endnotes

1. Baumberg Geiger, B, Benefit ‘Myths’? The Accuracy and Inaccuracy of Public Beliefs about the Benefits System Social Policy Administration, Vol 55, Issue 5, September 2018. Survey evidence with similar findings is also presented in John Hills’ Good Times, Bad Times (Policy Press) 2015 and in a joint Ipsos Mori/Royal Statistical Society publication Perceptions are not reality (2013). For example, this survey found that ‘people estimate that 34 times more benefit money is claimed fraudulently than official estimates: the public think that £24 out of every £100 spent on benefits is claimed fraudulently, compared with official estimates of £0.70 per £100’.

2. Baumberg Geiger B, Benefit ‘Myths’? The Accuracy and Inaccuracy of Public Beliefs about the Benefits System Social Policy Administration, Vol 55, Issue 5, September 2018 – finds that ‘people thought 29-37% of claims were fraudulent and 24-27% of spending was on false claims’. This is consistent with the survey evidence presented in Good Times, Bad Times (cited above): when people were asked what proportion of benefits and tax credits was claimed fraudulently, the average response was 27%.

3. Department for Work and Pensions, Fraud and error in the benefit system Financial Year Ending (FYE) 2023, published 11 May 2023

4. Hills, J. Good Times, Bad Times (Policy Press) 2015, p266

5. Scottish Government (2023) Poverty and Income Inequality in Scotland 2019-22

6. Office for Budget Responsibility (2023) Welfare Spending: pensioner benefits

7. Baumberg Geiger B et al. (2023) Poverty, British Social Attitudes 40 (National Centre for Social Research)

8. Scottish Government (2022) Scottish Social Attitudes survey 2021/22, p5

9. Different arrangements apply in Northern Ireland

10. These figures are based on the latest Scottish Fiscal Commission Forecasts, and Scotland benefit shares from the latest country level caseload and expenditure tables of the latest OBR forecasts.

11. Reserved expenditure includes State Pension, Universal Credit, legacy benefits and benefits administered by HMRC. Devolved expenditure includes benefits devolved to Scotland including benefits currently delivered by DWP through agency agreements (e.g. PIP), it excludes some very small benefits below the SFC’s materiality threshold such as YCG and JSP. These are based on benefit shares of the latest Spring Budget forecasts, and the Scottish Fiscal Commission November forecasts.

12. Scottish Fiscal Commission (2023) Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – May 2023, Figure 5.6

13. Scottish Government (2023) Carer’s Allowance Supplement, April eligibility date 2023 and Carer’s Allowance, Disability Living Allowance, Attendance Allowance and Severe Disablement Allowance at February 2023 (last accessed: 6 November 2023).

14. The Scottish Government (2021) Adult Disability Payment: consultation response

15. The Scottish Government (2021) Adult Disability Payment: consultation analysis

16. Department for Work and Pensions (2013) An introduction to Universal Credit

17. Department for Work and Pensions (2023) StatXplore: Households Below Average Income (last accessed: 20 October 2023)

18. House of Lords (2020) Universal credit isn’t working: Proposals for reform Economic Affairs Committee 2nd Report of Session 2019–2021

19. House of Lords (2020) Universal credit isn’t working: Proposals for reform Economic Affairs Committee 2nd Report of Session 2019–2021

20. UK Government (2022) Completing the move to Universal Credit (last accessed 13 July 2022)

21. The Trussell Trust and StepChange (2019) Hardship Now Or Hardship Later?

22. All-Party Parliamentary Group on Poverty (APPG) (2023) Enough to be able to live, not just survive: a report by the APPG on Poverty following its inquiry into the (in)adequacy of social security

23. It also reflects the fact that benefits are typically uprated by inflation (when they are not frozen) which has often been lower than growth in average earnings.

24. Joseph Rowntree Foundation (2022) Poverty rates by benefit type (last accessed 07 July 2022)

25. See a range of Scottish Government analysis here: https://www.gov.scot/collections/welfare-reform-analysis/

26. UK Government (2023) Benefit cap

27. Office for National Statistics (2023) Average household income, UK: financial year ending 2022 (last accessed 24 August 2023)

28. HM Treasury (2015) Chancellor George Osborne’s Summer Budget 2015 speech – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

29. Andridge H and Hughes C (2016) Informal carers and poverty in the UK :an analysis of the Family Resources Survey (New Policy Institute)

30. See: The Scottish Government (2023) Poverty and Income Inequality in Scotland 2019-22 (data.gov.scot) (last accessed 20 April 2023)

31. See for example: Lawson S (2018) Poverty and Health (The Health Foundation)

32. Pattaro S et al. The Impacts of Benefit Sanctions: A Scoping Review of the Quantitative research Evidence, Journal of Social Policy, Vol 51, Issue 3, February 2022, page 645

33. Fitzpatrick S et al. (2020) Destitution in the UK 2020 (Joseph Rowntree Foundation)

34. Reflected by real terms value – nominal benefit rates adjusted for the impact of inflation.

35. Child Poverty Action Group and the Equality Trust (2023) APPG-on-Poverty-Social-Security-Report.pdf

36. Trussell Trust and Joseph Rowntree Foundation Guarantee our Essentials: reforming Universal Credit to ensure we can all afford the essentials in hard times (Joseph Rowntree Foundation)

37. Households Below Average Income, Universal Credit or equivalent received by families in Scotland split by 60% of median income after housing costs.

38. Relative poverty is defined as 60% of median income, after housing costs. Income measures are equivalised to account for the additional costs associated with different household compositions.

39. Department for Work and Pensions (2023) Households below average income (HBAI) statistics

40. House of Commons Library (2023) Poverty in the UK: statistics

41. The Scottish Government (2023) Poverty and Income Inequality in Scotland 2019-22 (data.gov.scot) (last accessed 20 April 2023)

42. The Scottish Government (2022) Welfare reform – impact on households with children: report

43. The Scottish Government (2023) Poverty and Income Inequality in Scotland 2019-22 (data.gov.scot) (last accessed 31 October 2023)

44. Joseph Rowntree Foundation (2016) UK poverty: Causes, costs and solutions

45. Fitzpatrick S, Bramley G, Treanor M et al. (2023) Destitution in the UK 2023 (Joseph Rowntree Foundation)

46. Taylor M et al. (2017) Good work: the Taylor review of modern working practices (UK Government)

47. Health and Disability White Paper: support not sanctions needed, says DR UK | Disability Rights UK

48. George M, Graham C, and Lennard L (2013) The Energy Penalty: disabled people and fuel poverty (University of Leicester)

49. Tinson I et al. (2016) Disability and poverty: Why disability must be at the centre of poverty reduction (Joseph Rowntree Foundation)

50. New Policy Institute, 2016, Informal Carers and Poverty in the UK: An analysis of the Family Resources Survey

51. Walsh D et al. Bearing the burden of austerity: how do changing mortality rates in the UK compare between men and women? Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health; 2022, 76, pp.1027–1033

52. See for example: Deakin S (2019) Social Security and the Labour Market (Progressive Economics Group)

53. Baumberg Geiger B et al. (2021) Non-take-up of benefits at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic (Welfare at a Distance; The Health Foundation)

54. Bannister L, Matejic P, Porter I et al. (2023) An Essentials Guarantee: reforming Universal Credit to ensure we can all afford the essentials in hard times (Joseph Rowntree Foundation and Trussell Trust)

55. Research cited in Porter, I. and Johnson-Hunter, M. (2023) Inadequate Universal Credit and barriers to work (Joseph Rowntree Foundation)

56. All-Party Parliamentary Group on Poverty (APPG) (2023) Enough to be able to live, not just survive: a report by the APPG on Poverty following its inquiry into the (in)adequacy of social security, p19

57. Griffiths R, Wood M, Bennett F et al. (2022) Couples Navigating Work, Care and Universal Credit (University of Bath)

58. All-Party Parliamentary Group on Poverty (APPG) (2023) Enough to be able to live, not just survive: a report by the APPG on Poverty following its inquiry into the (in)adequacy of social security, p13

59. Porter I and Johnson-Hunter M (2023) Inadequate Universal Credit and barriers to work (Joseph Rowntree Foundation)

60. The Scottish Government (2022) Building a New Scotland – A stronger economy with independence pages 82-83

61. Social Security Scotland (2019) Our Charter – What you can expect from the Scottish Government and Social Security Scotland (The Scottish Government)

62. Social Security Scotland (2023) Client Survey 2022-2023 Report

63. The Scottish Government (2021) Social Security Scotland (Act) 2018: progress report

64. Social Security Scotland (2023) Social Security Scotland Business Plan 2023-24

65. Scottish Government calculation based on caseload statistics.

66. For more detail on projected devolved social security spending, see: Scottish Fiscal Commission (2023) Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – May 2023

67. The Child Poverty (Scotland) Act 2017

68. Child Poverty Action Group (2019) New Scottish Child Payment “An Absolute Game Changer in Fight to End Child Poverty” Say campaigners

69. Scottish Fiscal Commission (May 2023) Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts, Chapter 5 – Figure 5.2 and Supplementary Figures, Table S.5.1

70. Social Security Scotland (2023) Client Survey 2022-23

71. The Scottish Government (2020) Best Start Grant: interim evaluation

72. The Scottish Government (2023) Tackling child poverty delivery plan – annual progress report: annex b – cumulative impact assessment update

73. National Care Service (Scotland) Bill (2022) Financial Memorandum (paragraph 72).

74. The Scottish Government (2023) Supporting unpaid carers

75. The Scottish Government (2022) National carers strategy

76. Social Justice and Social Security Committee 31 March 2022 Official Report (parliament.scot), column 12

77. The Scottish Government (2022) Adult Disability Payment: policy position paper

78. The Scottish Government (2022) Scottish Budget: 2023 to 2024

79. This includes spending on Discretionary Housing Payments, the Scottish Welfare Fund and their associated administrative costs.

80. The Scottish Government (2023) The agreement between the Scottish Government and the United Kingdom Government on the Scottish Government’s fiscal framework, Page 6 para 34-43

81. Cabinet Office (2023) Statistical Bulletin – Civil Service Statistics: 2023. See Table 12 in the supporting data: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1175395/Statistical_tables_-_Civil_Service_Statistics_2023.ods

82. HM Revenue & Customs (2022) Locations (last accessed: 15 December 2022)

83. Department for Work and Pensions (2019) DWP jobcentre register showing offices open as of 30 April 2019 (last accessed: 20 February 2023)

84. House of Commons Library (2017) The two child limit in tax credits and Universal Credit, UK Parliament

85. Patrick K and Andersen K (2022) The two-child limit & ‘choices’ over family size: When policy presentation collides with lived experiences Benefit Changes & Larger Families

86. Brewer M, Fry E and Try L (2023) The Living Standards Outlook the Resolution Foundation

87. UK Government (2023) Universal Credit and Child Tax Credit claimants: statistics related to the policy to provide support for a maximum of two children

88. The Scottish Government (2022) Welfare reform – impact on households with children: report

89. Department for Work and Pensions (2014) The benefit cap: a review of the first year

90. UK Government (2023) Benefit cap

91. Office for National Statistics (2023) Average household income, UK: financial year ending 2021 (last accessed 21 April 2023)

92. This costing uses the UC household dataset from StatXplore to obtain new claims and average amounts to estimate paying a five week run-on payment to each claimant. Legacy benefit recipients already receive a two- week run-on so overall expenditure needs to be adjusted given that for these new claims only an additional three weeks of payment is required to bridge the five-week wait. StatXplore information about Housing Benefit off-flows that are now receiving UC provides partial information. We use the StatXplore benefit combination dataset to adjust the number of these claims upwards based on the ratio of other legacy benefit recipients to Housing Benefit recipients. Considering the last three full years available (2019-20 to 2021-22) the final expenditure estimate has fluctuated considerably – we expect that this considerable uncertainty is in large part due to the effect of Covid on applications to Universal Credit. The lowest estimate is £84,650,864 in 2021-22 and the highest is £182,929,442 in 2020-21. We round these figures to the nearest £100 million. Department for Work and Pensions (2023) StatXplore: Benefit Combinations Tables (last accessed: 16 November 2023) Department for Work and Pensions (2022) StatXplore: Households on Universal Credit (last accessed: 16 November 2023) Department for Work and Pensions (2023) StatXplore: HB Cumulative Caseload (last accessed: 16 November 2022)

93. Department for Work and Pensions (2023) Benefit sanctions statistics to August 2023 (official statistics in development) (last accessed: 14 November 2023)

94. Benefit sanctions statistics to May 2023 (experimental) – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

95. Autumn Statement 2023 (HTML) – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

96. Scottish Government calculation based on DWP (2023), Dataset: Households on Universal Credit, stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk (last accessed November 2023) and DWP (2023), Dataset: People on Universal Credit, stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk (last accessed November 2023)

97. This is based on the previous cost of the Parental Transition Fund. Scottish Government (2022) Best Start Bright Futures: Tackling child poverty deliverty plan 2022 to 2026.

98. This includes the costs presented above for removal of the two-child limit, replacing UC budgeting loans, ending age discrimination and strengthening support with the costs of moving into work.

99. Esping-Andersen, G. The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1991.

100. Arts W and Gelissen J. Journal of European Social Policy, Vol 12, Issue 2, 2002, pp137-155

101. Editorial Group for NOSOSCOS Welfare Statistics (2023) About the Nordic welfare model (Nordic Health and Welfare Statistics)

102. Scottish Government (2022) Independence in the Modern World

103. Scottish Government (2022) Independence in the Modern World

104. Brewer M et al. (2022) Social Insecurity: Assessing trends in social security to prepare for the decade of change ahead (The Economy 2030 Inquiry), p41

105. Scottish Government (2022) A Stronger Economy with Independence

106. The argument that more open economies tend to have higher state spending (on LMP and other programmes) is made in classic texts by Rodrik, D Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments? 1998; and Cameron D, The Expansion of the Public Economy: A Comparative Analysis, 1978

107. See for instance the current UK Government’s ‘Way to Work’ initiative (January 2022) and this response from the Institute for Employment Studies which discusses the problems with a ‘jobs-first’ approach

108. For a comprehensive overview of the Nordic model of social security see Chapter 3 in Hilson, M. The Nordic Model: Scandinavia since 1945, University of Chicago Press 2008

109. There is evidence that high replacement rates coupled with well-funded and effective labour market policies are particularly successful in creating better job matches in Denmark and Sweden. See for instance Bjorsted, Bova and Dahl Lessons from the Nordics: How to Fight Long-term Unemployment, Review of European Economic Policy, Vol 51, 2016 Number 3 pp.172-178

110. OECD (2023), Public spending on incapacity (indicator). (Accessed on 17 November 2023)

111. The slowdown in US wage growth post financial crisis has been attributed to a decrease in job-to-job moves, see Danninger, S What’s Up With U.S. Wage Growth and Job Mobility? IMF Working Paper 2016. For a broad discussion on job mobility and wages see Resolution Foundation Changing Jobs? Change in the UK labour market and the role of worker mobility January 2022.

112. The Scottish Government (2023) Supporting documents – Minimum Income Guarantee Expert Group: interim report – gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

113. See: Centre for Research in Social Policy (n.d.) The Minimum Income Standard for the United Kingdom

114. The Scottish Government (2022) Independence in the modern world. Wealthier, happier, fairer: why not Scotland?

115. Corlett A, Odamtten F and Try L (2022) The Living Standards Audit (The Resolution Foundation)

116. Department for Work and Pensions (2023) People on Universal Credit (last accessed November 2023)

117. England, Scotland, Wales

118. Department for Work and Pensions (2023) People on Universal Credit (last accessed November 2023)

119. HMRC (2023) Child and Working Tax Credits statistics: Provisional awards – April 2023 – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) (last accessed November 2023)

120. Department for Work and Pensions (2023) Dataset: Housing Benefit – Data from April 2018 (last accessed November 2023)

121. Department for Work and Pensions (2023) Income Support (last accessed November 2023)

122. Department for Work and Pensions (2023) Job Seeker’s Allowance (last accessed November 2023)

123. Department for Work and Pensions (2023) Employment and Support Allowance, (last accessed November 2023)

124. HMRC (2022) Child Benefit Statistics: annual release, August 2022 (last accessed November 2023)

125. Department for Work and Pensions (2023) Maternity Allowance quarterly statistics: December 2022 to February 2023 (last accessed November 2023)

126. Internal Scottish Government estimate (2022) based upon Scotland’s share (7.0%) of GB Statutory Maternity Pay expenditure in 2020-2021 applied to GB Statutory Maternity Pay caseload (256,000) for 2020-21 (available at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/benefit-expenditure-and-caseload-tables-2021) (last accessed November 2023)

127. Department for Work and Pensions (2023) Dataset: Bereavement Support Payment Claims in Payment (last accessed November 2023)

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129. MOD (2023), War Pensions Scheme Statistics: 2023 (last accessed November 2023).

130. The Scottish Government (2022) Adult Disability Payment: policy position paper

131. The Scottish Government (2019) Social Security Experience Panels: Personal Independence Payment health assessments

132. The Scottish Government (2021) Disability Assistance for Working Age People (Scotland) Regulations: equalities impact assessment (EQIA)