Socio-economic Baseline Review for Offshore Renewables in Scottish Waters Volume 1: Main Text

2. National Overview

2.1 Introduction

The national overview for each marine use identified above is detailed within this section. These sub-sections, which are arranged in alpaetical order of activity, provide information in a uniformed manner under the following headings:

• Definition of sector/activity;
• Description of information sources; and
• National overview of current activity.

2.2 Aquaculture

2.2.1 Definition of Sector/Activity

Aquaculture relates to the production of marine species such as finfish and shellfish within aquaculture installations including cultivated shellfish beds. Biofuel production is likely to become another component of the UK industry in the future although it is currently only being undertaken on a research scale.

2.2.2 Description of Information Sources

A variety of different information sources has been reviewed to inform this baseline, including published reports and papers, spatial layers and information provided through stakeholder engagement ( Table 1).

Table 1. Data sources used in the aquaculture baseline

Scale	Information Available	Date	Source
Scotland	Production and turnover 2005-2009	2005-2009	Baxter et al , 2011
Scotland	Scottish shellfish production survey	2010	Marine Scotland , 2010a
Scotland	Scottish fish farm production survey	2009	Marine Scotland , 2009
UK	Future trends	2006+	Wilding et al , 2006

2.2.2.1 Data limitations

Marine Scotland was only able to provide aquaculture data in point form locations, data on value of the industry and on production numbers are available however due to their sensitive nature these can not be reproduced within this document. However at the time of producing the Impact Assessment the Scottish Salmon Producers' Organisation will ensure these data are accessible to Marine Scotland.

2.2.3 National Overview of Current Activity

2.2.3.1 Location and intensity of activity

Marine aquaculture (Mariculture) is the largest and most valuable component of aquaculture in the UK with the industry broadly split into two main categories - finfish farming and shellfish cultivation and biofuels.

Marine aquaculture sites in Scotland are currently situated in coastal areas within a few miles of the shore with no sites found further offshore. Most sites are also situated in sheltered, semi-enclosed sea lochs and voes (sea-inlets) and thus most are found on the West coast. Finfish production sites are distributed all along the West coast including the Hebrides and Northern Isles. A similar distribution is also found for shellfish production sites although one site is also found on the East coast, see Figure 2.

Rising concern over global warming has encouraged the movement to alternate fuels (Kraan et al. 2011). Growth rates of marine macroalgae far exceed those of terrestrial biomass and provide a potential alternative as a biofuel to land-based crops such as corn and sugar cane. Among marine macroalgae, species of the temperate brown algal order Laminariales (so-called kelp species) are among the fastest growing p.a.ts in the world (Kraan et al. 2011; Kelly and Dworjanyn, 2008). While wild harvest of these species is expected to be unsustainable or only produce insignificant amounts, cultivation is a viable option. Macroalgae are already farmed on a massive scale in the Far East and to a much lesser extent in Europe, primarily in France. Within Scotland only research scale developments installations are currently being designed.

2.2.3.2 Economic value and employment

Finfish and shellfish aquaculture is a growing industry and has a turnover worth around £427m per year to the Scottish economy at farm gate prices in 2009. Contributions to this turnover included Atlantic salmon (£412m), rainbow and brown trout (£6m), halibut (£0.5m), mussels (£7m) and other shellfish (£1.4m). Farmed salmon exports are valued at £285m annually. Exports from aquaculture are Scotland's largest food export (Baxter et al, 2011). Trout species are primarily farmed in freshwater habitats and therefore not discussed further in this report, however Sea Trout are discussed within the commercial fisheries sections.

The total number of staff employed in salmon production in 2009 was 963 (874 full-time and 89 part-time jobs), an increase of 1% compared with 2008. The staffing figures collected refer specifically to the production of salmon, and do not include figures for staff involved with processing or marketing activities (Marine Scotland, 2009). Employment in the Scottish shellfish sector in 2010 showed a 16% increase from the previous year with 399 full, part-time and casual staff being employed during 2010 (Marine Scotland, 2010a).

National employment figures for activities relating to marine aquaculture have been derived from the Business Register and Employment Survey ( ONS, 2011) using UK Standard Industrial Classification ( SIC) codes and are listed below in Table 2. It should be noted that only the activity of marine aquaculture ( SIC 03210) is directly related to the marine aquaculture sector where employment figures have grown by approximately 20% between 2009 and 2010, the majority of which has been in part-time employment ( Table 2). The remaining activities within the manufacture of prepared feeds for farm animals ( SIC 10901) are not directly related to marine aquaculture but are considered secondary activities. Thus in reality the total number of employees relating to marine aquaculture may be much less ( ONS, 2011).

Table 2. ABI statistics relating to employment in Scotland within the aquaculture sector

Standard Industrial Classification 2007 ( SIC, 2007)	Full-time Employees		Part-time Employees
	2009	2010	2009	2010
Marine aquaculture ( SIC 03210)	977	1000	77	290

(Source: Office for National Statistics: ONS, 2011)

Within Scotland there were 254 Salmon, two cod and five halibut sites registered as active in 2009 (Marine Scotland, 2009). A total of 328 shellfish sites were registered active in 2010 (Marine Scotland, 2010a). The location of these sites can be seen in Figure 2.

2.2.3.3 Historical trends

In Scotland, Aquaculture production growth in value terms has averaged 4.6% per annum over the period 2000-2009 (Baxter et al. 2011). Trends in Scottish salmon production from 2000-2009 can be seen in Image 1 (Marine Scotland, 2009). The largest variation in salmon production occurred between 2002-2005 and was due mainly to a large smolt plansment in years 2000, 2001 and 2002 and also affected by an increased average weight giving a higher yield per smolt put to sea between 2002-2003 and a reduction in the number of smolts being put to sea from 2003-2005.Trends in Scottish shellfish cultivation from 1998-2007 can be seen in Image 2 (Marine Scotland, 2010a). Production has been dominated by mussel and Pacific oyster, although small quantities of scallop, queen scallop (queen) and native oyster were also produced. Mussel production has shown a large year on year increase with the trend continuing from 2009-2010 (showing a 14% rise). Pacific oyster production has increased by 4% since 2009, following a small reduction in 2008-2009.

Image 1. Annual Production (Tonnes) of Atlantic Salmon in Scotland from 2000‑2009

Image 2. Annual Production of Shellfish in Scotland from 1998-2007

2.2.3.4 Future trends

Aquaculture continues to be the world's fastest-growing animal-food-producing sector. In the period 1970-2008, the production of food fish from aquaculture increased at an average annual rate of 8.3 percent and is set to overtake capture fisheries as a source of food fish ( FAO, 2010; Commission of the Euro p.a. Communities, 2009). The global demand for seafood, driven by such factors as the need for protein for an expanding population and the need to replans land-based sources suffering from climate change, is likely to increase demand for Scottish production (Baxter et al. 2011).

The immediate prospects for Scottish finfish aquaculture are good. The Scottish Government (2010) predicted that the opportunity for sustainable growth in the next 5 years for Salmon may equate to an ex farm value of £152 million and a potential of 400 new jobs.

The prospects for mussel farming are also good, partly due to a decline in Dutch mussel production. Scotland is well positioned to contribute to continued growth in the EU, in line with the EU Aquaculture Strategy. In the 2009 Euro p.a. Fisheries Fund awards, grants to the mussel sector were made which could alone lead to a further increase of more than 2,000 tonnes of production (Baxter et al. 2011).

Emerging aquaculture species such as tila p.a. barramundi, bass and bream along with the growing organic finfish sector may also increase the size of the UK finfish aquaculture market ( Defra, 2008). Cod, haddock and halibut farming (which are currently only farmed on a relatively small scale) are also predicted to grow (Pugh, 2008). However, cod farming is now seen as a less attractive option due to recent increases in North Sea cod catch quotas. 'No Catch', Britain's only supplier of sustainable organic cod, based on the Shetland Isles, went into administration in early 2008. Due to a shortage of available investment there is now no commercial cod production and only one halibut producer in Scotland.

There is currently no clear development p.a. for marine biofuels, although a number of trials are underway in Scotland (Black, 2011). The Crown Estate estimates that up to 1.5% of the seabed area could be used for macroalgae cultivation. This could give an annual biogas yield equivalent to around 5% of the natural gas consumed in the UK in 2009 (The Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology, 2011).

2.3 Aviation

2.3.1 Definition of Sector/Activity

This sector relates to civil aviation, which comprises scheduled air transport (including all passenger and cargo flights operating on regularly scheduled routes) and general aviation (including all other civil flights, private or commercial). Military aviation is covered separately in the Military Interests baseline (see Section 2.8).

2.3.2 Description of Information Sources

A range of information has been accessed to inform this baseline, including published reports, spatial data layers and other specific information provided through stakeholder engagement ( Table 3).

Table 3. Information sources for aviation baseline

Scale	Information Available	Date	Source
Scotland	UK Air Passenger Demand Forecasts	2009+	Department for Transport, DfT; 2011
Scotland	Scottish Transport Statistics	2010	Scottish Government
UK and Scotland	Airport and airline statistics	2010	Civil Aviation Authority website: www.caa.co.uk

2.3.2.1 Data limitations

Information on helicopter and aircraft routes is sensitive and hence not publicly available. At the time of writing no central source of employment figures for the 'minor' airports in Scotland had been identified.

2.3.3 National Overview of Current Activity

The importance of air travel to Scotland can be illustrated by what is termed the 'propensity to fly' which measures the number of return air trips in an area per head of population (but also includes trips made by out-of-area tourists and business people). Apart from London, Scotland records the highest 'propensity to fly' value in the UK ( DfT, 2002, cited in ABPmer, RPA and SQW, 2011), this is likely to be due to the mountainous and island terrain and ease of transportation.

The airport locations in Scotland are shown in Figure 3, where the five 'major' airports are located in the West (Glasgow and Glasgow Prestwick airports), North East (Inverness and Aberdeen airports) and East (Edinburgh airport) SORERs. Minor airports are located on the mainland in the East (Dundee airport), North East (Wick airport) and West (Campbeltown airport) SORERs and on islands in the North (Scrabster, Lerwick and Sumburgh airports in the Shetlands; Kirkwall airport in the Orkneys), North West (Stornoway, Benbecula and Barra airports in the Outer Hebrides) and West (Coll, Colonsay, Tiree and Islay airports) SORERs.

In 2009, there were 22.5 million air terminal passengers (passengers who join or leave an aircraft at the reporting airport, excluding passengers carried on air taxi charter services) (Scottish Government, 2010b). Passengers passing through Edinburgh, Glasgow, Aberdeen and Glasgow Prestwick comprised 94% of this total. In 2009, the total air freight (the weight of property carried out on an aircraft, excluding mail and passenger's and crew's permitted luggage) carried through Scottish airports was 45,659 tonnes. Passenger numbers and freight quantities through all Scottish airports are addressed in more detail in the Regional overviews. The total number of aircraft movements in 2009 was 490,000; Edinburgh had the highest number of aircraft movements (116,000; 98% commercial movements), followed by Aberdeen (110,000) and Glasgow (85,000) (Scottish Government, 2010b).

National Air Traffic Services ( NATS) provides air traffic control services to aircraft flying in UK airspace, and over the Eastern part of the North Atlantic. The locations of radar installations, where known, are provided in the Regional Overviews.

2.3.3.1 Economic value and employment

Aviation forms a critical component of Scotland's economy by providing direct access to markets as well as providing lifeline services to otherwise inaccessible settlements throughout the mountainous and island terrain ( ABPmer, RPA and SQW, 2011).

In 2009, BAA's operating profit for the three main airports (Edinburgh, Glasgow and Aberdeen) was £34.4 million. Highlands and Islands Airports (Barra, Benbecula, Campbeltown, Inverness, Islay, Kirkwall, Stornoway, Sumburgh, Tiree and Wick) recorded a loss of £1million for 2008/09 (Scottish Government, 2010b).

2.3.3.2 Historic trends

Between 1999 and 2009, the total number of air terminal passengers travelling through Scottish airports has increased by 41% (Scottish Government, 2010b; see Table 5). During this period, the increases at the major airports were: 23% at Edinburgh, 7% at Glasgow, 23% at Aberdeen and 156% at Glasgow Prestwick (Scottish Government, 2010b). Air freight carried decreased by 38% ( Table 4). Total aircraft movements gradually increased between 2003 and 2007 but decreased again between 2008 and 2009.

Table 4. Summary of air transport statistics from 1999 to 2009

Year	Terminal Passengers	Transit Passengers	Total No. Passengers*	Freight (Tonnes)	Total Aircraft Movements*
1999	15,941	155	16,096	73,849	479,090
2000	16,787	117	16,904	74,582	474,051
2001	18,081	131	18,212	72,400	492,351
2002	19,783	107	19,890	72,602	473,295
2003	21,084	71	21,155	76,451	502,733
2004	22,555	102	22,657	77,572	514,453
2005	23,795	91	23,886	74,515	543,605
2006	24,437	86	24,523	77,884	553,868
2007	25,132	109	25,242	61,197	559,655
2008	24,348	85	24,433	45,554	542,667
2009	22,496	43	22,539	45,659	489,520

* Statistics are not collected for some of the smaller airports on Orkney and Shetland and hence are not included in the aircraft movement totals

(Source: Scottish Government, 2010b)

2.3.3.3 Future trends

The number of air passengers using UK airports is forecast to recover from the recent downturn. In a 'constrained' forecast, in which it is assumed that there will be no new runways and only incremental developments to airport terminals to make maximum use of existing runways, numbers of passengers are forecast to rise from 211 million passengers per annum ( mp.a. in 2010 to 335 mp.a.in 2030 (range 300 - 380 mp.a., and to 470 mp.a.in 2050 (range 380 - 515 mp.a.. These forecasts imply average annual growth in passenger numbers to 2050 of 2.0% (within the range 1.5-2.3%) significantly lower than the 3.7% average seen over the past twenty years ( DfT, 2011). Unconstrained forecasts (in which it is assumed there are no airport capacity constraints) show that UK air travel would rise from 211 mp.a.in 2010 to 345 mp.a.in 2030 (central forecast, range 305-400 mp.a. and 520 mp.a.(central forecast, range 400-700 mp.a. ( DfT, 2011).

Constrained (maximum use) passenger capacity and ATM forecasts for major Scottish airports are shown in Table 5.

Table 5. Constrained terminal passenger and ATM 'central' forecasts for major Scottish airports

Numbers/Movements	Airport	2010	2020	2030	2040	2050
Terminal passengers ( mp.a.	Glasgow	7	7	10	12	20
	Edinburgh	9	13	15	20	20
	Aberdeen	3	3	4	5	6
	Prestwick	2	2	2	3	4
	Inverness	<1	1	<1	<1	<1
Air Transport Movements (000's)	Glasgow	70	55	75	90	140
	Edinburgh	100	170	190	230	180
	Aberdeen	90	90	100	110	120
	Prestwick	15	20	25	25	30
	Inverness	15	30	15	15	15

(Source: DfT, 2011)

2.4 Carbon Capture and Storage

2.4.1 Definition of Sector/Activity

Carbon capture and storage ( CCS) is a carbon abatement technology that will enable fossil fuels to be used with substantially reduced CO ₂ emissions. CCS combines three distinct processes: capturing the CO ₂ from power stations and other industrial sources, transporting it (usually via pipelines) to storage points, then injection of the CO ₂ into deep geological formations (e.g. deep saline formations or depleted Oil and Gas fields) for long term storage. Although the individual processes involved in CCS are not novel, the full chain of technologies (i.e. the process described above) have yet to be demonstrated together at commercial scale in a power station i.e. CCS is an active field of research and development and a growing industry.

2.4.2 Description of Information Sources

A range of information has been accessed to inform this baseline, including published reports, spatial data layers and other specific information provided through stakeholder engagement ( Table 6).

Table 6. Information sources for CCS baseline

Scale	Information Available	Date	Source
Scotland	Potential CO 2 storage sites, transport options between sources and storage sites (shi p.a.d pipeline)	2009	Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage, 2009.
Scotland	Refined estimate of CO 2 storage capacity in North East Region, estimates of timelines to CCS deployment and employment estimates	2011	Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage, 2011
Scotland	Potential transport options and possible Euro p.a. CCS Network	2010	Scottish Government and Scottish Enterprise, 2010
Scotland	Potential CO 2 storage sites (based on above data sources)	2011	Baxter et al, 2011

2.4.2.1 Data limitations

Specific limitations of the data include currently being unable to attribute economic values to sea areas for future CO ₂ storage (Baxter et al, 2011).

2.4.3 National Overview of Current Activity

2.4.3.1 Location and intensity of activity

A study into the opportunities for CO ₂ storage around Scotland (Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage ( SCCS), 2009) showed that within the Scottish Renewable Energy Zone ^[1] ,Scotland has an extremely large CO ₂ storage resource. Out of the 204 hydrocarbon fields and 80 saline aquifers identified within the study area, 29 hydrocarbon fields and 10 saline aquifers were identified as having aplansnt potential for CO ₂ storage, all of which lie in offshore waters within the North and North East SORERs (see Figure 4). Further assessment of these sites showed that four gas condensate fields (Brae North, Brae East, Britannia and Bruce Fields), one gas field (Frigg Field) and one oil field (Brent Field) present the most obvious opportunities as stores, with CO ₂ storage capacities of between 300-1,000 Mt (see North and North East Regional assessments for further detail). The report noted that the three high pressure high temperature ( HPHT) gas condensate fields (Franklin, Elgin and Shearwater fields) are likely to be too expensive to develo p.a. stores in the short term. Fourteen oil fields, including the Brent Oil Field, were identified as having potential for CO ₂ storage in conjunction with enhanced oil recovery. The remaining seven oil fields offer large storage capacities but reservoir pressure may present obstacles to their use for CO ₂ storage. Out of the 80 saline aquifers identified within the study, ten were identified as meeting both geotechnical and storage capacity requirements (all of which lie within offshore waters in the North and North East SORERs; Figure 4) with a total potential CO ₂ capacity in the range 4,600-46,000 million tonnes. The study concluded that these resources could easily accommodate the industrial CO ₂ emissions from Scotland for the next 200 years, with likely sufficient storage to allow import of CO ₂ from North East England, equating to over 25% of future UK large industry and power CO ₂ output. Pipelines were assessed as the best option for the secure and continuous transport of CO ₂ from different sources to collection hubs onshore and then to offshore storage hubs for local distribution to storage sites. In 2011, a study showed that the storage capacity of one of the saline aquifers identified in the 2009 study (the Ca p.a.n Sandstone beneath the Moray Firth) was estimated to be over 360 Mt of CO ₂, with the potential for an additional 1200 Mt storage capacity with significant investment ( SCCS, 2011). This equated to about 15-100 years of CO ₂ output from Scotland's existing industrial sources.

2.4.3.2 Economic value and employment

This sector is currently in its infancy and there is currently no CO ₂ storage in plans. Therefore no information is available on the current economic value or employment.

2.4.3.3 Future trends

The Scottish Government and Scottish Enterprise (2010) stated that the emerging CCS-based industry in Scotland could support up to an estimated 10,000 new jobs in the next 15-20 years. A more recent study ( SCCS, 2011) stated that an appropriately skilled and trained workforce, in addition to that already engaged in the engineering and offshore industries, will be an essential component of the new CCS industry in the UK and estimated that CCS could create 13,000 jobs in Scotland (and 14,000 elsewhere in the UK) by 2020 and increase in the following years ( SCCS, 2011). This study also estimated that the UK plc share of the worldwide CCS business is potentially worth over £10 billion per year from around 2025, with the added value in the UK worth between £5-9.5 billion per year ( SCCS, 2011).

CCS on fossil fuel power generation may have an important role in helping to meet Scotland's climate change targets of an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas ( GHG) emissions by 2050. The Scottish Government and Scottish Enterprise (2010) state that in order to make significant progress towards Scotland's climate change targets the electricity generation sector needs to be decarbonised by 2030. To meet this target Scotland must have one or more demonstrator projects operational by 2015 to ensure that CCS is available on a commercial scale from 2020 and be widespread in the sector by 2030 (including the retrofitting of CCS to existing p.a.ts). However, challenges to this emerging sector include demonstrating that CCS is economically and technically feasible, that CCS is permanent (proposed sites must be investigated and evaluated to demonstrate they are suitable for secure storage of CO ₂ for thousands of years) and whether the technology can be developed within a timescale that enables utilisation of the existing Oil and Gas infrastructure ( p.a.forms and pipelines) before decommissioning occurs (Baxter et al, 2011). Potential storage sites may increase as further hydrocarbon fields or saline aquifers suitable for CO ₂ storage may yet be discovered ( SCCS, 2009).

2.5 Coast Protection and Flood Defence

2.5.1 Definition of Sector/Activity

This sector includes coastal defence measures used to prevent or reduce flood risk and coastal erosion ( UKMMAS, 2010). Examples of coastal and flood defences include groynes, sea walls and emban kments (termed 'hard engineering') and beach replenishment, managed retreat and coastal realignment (termed 'soft engineering').

2.5.2 Description of Information Sources

A range of information has been accessed to inform this baseline, including published reports, spatial data layers and other specific information provided through stakeholder engagement ( Table 7).

Table 7. Information sources for coast protection and flood defence baseline

Scale	Information Available	Date	Source
Scotland	Location, size and cost of flood defences.	1961 to present	Baxter et al, 2011 and data sources therein
	Location, size and cost of coastal protection and managed realignment schemes	2000 to present

2.5.2.1 Data limitations

Specific limitations of the data include currently being unable to attribute economic values to coastal protection and flood defence and difficulty in accurately assessing employment within this sector (Baxter et al, 2011).

2.5.3 National Overview of Current Activity

2.5.3.1 Location and intensity of activity

Scottish Natural Heritage ( SNH) estimated that 307 km of mainland Scotland's coast is comprised of coastal defences (reported in Baxter et al, 2011). The distribution of coastal protection schemes and hard and soft engineered flood prevention schemes in Scotland are shown in Figure 5. Coastal defences are generally located in or adjacent to intertidal areas and Figure 5 shows that all of the coastal and flood defences in Scotland occur within inshore waters in all SORERs except the South West and North SORERs where currently there are no flood or coastal defences.

2.5.3.2 Economic value and employment

Coast protection and flood defences protect property, land and infrastructure, for example, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency ( SEPA) currently estimate that around 26,000 houses and businesses are at risk from coastal flooding in Scotland ^[2] . However, coastal protection and flood prevention schemes do not contribute directly to the economy and hence it is not possible to assign an economic value to this sector. It has been predicted that Scotland will face an increased flood risk in the future, especially in the West although no cost estimates for coastal flooding are available. The number of jobs associated with this sector is also difficult to assess accurately (Baxter et al, 2011).

2.5.3.3 Future trends

Future sea level rise and the potential for increasingly severe storm events due to climate change may plans Scotland's coastal infrastructure and habitats under increasing threat and hence increase the economic importance of this sector ( UKMMAS, 2010; Baxter et al, 2011). The Flood Risk Management (Scotland) Act, which came into force in November 2009, requires SEPA to conduct a national assessment of flood risk by the end of 2011, produce new flood risk and hazard maps by 2013 and implement a national flood risk management p.a. by 2015.

2.6 Commercial Fisheries

2.6.1 Definition of Sector/Activity

This sector relates to all commercial fishing activity within Scottish waters and includes the subsequent handling and processing of catches. In this study, commercial fishing activity includes wild salmon and sea trout fisheries.

2.6.2 Description of Information Sources

A range of information has been accessed to inform this baseline, including published statistics and reports, landings data, Vessel Monitoring System ( VMS) and surveillance sightings data, as well as other specific information provided through stakeholder engagement (Tables 8 and 9).

Table 8. Information sources for commercial fisheries baseline

Scale	Information Available	Date	Source
Scotland	Landings data per ICES Rectangle	2001 - 2010	Marine Scotland
Scotland	Processed VMS data per ICES Rectangle	2006 - 2010	Marine Scotland
Scotland	Scottish Sea Fisheries Statistics	2010	Marine Scotland, 2011
Scotland	Summary of fishing activity in Scotland	2005 - 2009	Baxter et al, 2011
Scotland	Economic structure and performance of Scotland's fishing fleet	2010	Scottish Government, 2010
Scotland	Analysis of employment in the Scottish fisheries sector	2002	Scottish Government, 2002
UK and Scotland	Assessment of the UK fishing sector	2010	UKMMAS
UK and Scotland	Survey of the UK Seafood processing industry	2008	Brown, 2009

Table 9. Information sources for salmon and sea trout baseline

Scale	Information Available	Date	Source
Scotland	Sea trout fishery statistics	2010	Marine Scotland
Scotland	Salmon fishery statistics	2010	Marine Scotland
Scotland	Summary of fishing activity in Scotland	2005 - 2009	Baxter et al, 2011
Scotland	Information on salmon and sea trout rivers	2009	Gray, 2009

2.6.2.1 Data limitations

• Landings data is based on all landings caught in SORERs into the UK or by UK vessels landing abroad. It does not include fish caught by foreign vessels and landed abroad.
• Vessel monitoring system ( VMS) data only covers fishing vessels 15m and over in length, since only these vessels are required to have onboard vessel monitoring systems.
• The offshore/inshore split shown in the landings data is an estimate which may understate the inshore component and, equivalently, over-state the offshore component.
• Overflight (surveillance sightings) data is biased as some ICES rectangles have more over flights than others. Overflights are only carried out in daylight hours approximately once a week.
• Data and reported information often do not match the SORER boundaries.

2.6.3 National Overview of Current Activity

Fish catching activities: Scotland is one of the largest sea fishing nations in Europe. In 2010, the Scottish fleet was responsible for landing 61% of the total UK value and volume of fish with Scottish vessels landing 367,000 tonnes of fish worth £435 million (Marine Scotland, 2011d).

Pelagic species (herring, mackerel) made up 51% by volume and 30% (£129 million) of the total value of landings made by Scottish vessels in 2010. Demersal species (including cod, haddock, and monkfish) made up 29% by volume and 35% of the total value of landings by Scottish vessels with a total value of £152 million. Shellfish landings (including Nephrops, scallops, and crabs) made up 20% by volume and 35% by value of all landings by Scottish based vessels with a total value of £154 million, see Image 3 .

Image 3. Quantity and Value of Landings by Scottish Vessels: Percentage of Each Species Type (2010)

Mackerel is the most valuable species to the Scottish fleet at £113 million and Nephrops is the second most valuable stock at £77 million (based on 2010 landings data); in fact, almost half the catch by value from Scottish waters was made up of these two species over the period from 2001 to 2010. Monkfish, haddock and scallops are the next most valuable species landed by Scottish vessels: in 2010 the value of these landings was £32.6 million, £32.4 million and £ 31.9 million, respectively (Marine Scotland, 2011d).

Figure 6 shows the annual average (2001 to 2010) value of all landings by species type caught in Scottish waters for the inshore and offshore sectors of each SORER. This shows that shellfish is particularly important (from a value perspective) for all inshore areas and also for the offshore areas of the South West, North East and East SORERs. Demersal fishing is most valuable for the offshore areas of the North West and North SORERs, whilst pelagic fishing is the most valuable species type for the offshore areas of the West, North West and North SORERs.

Figure 7 shows the annual average value (2001 to 2010) for all landings by VMS vessels (i.e. vessels 15m and over in length) for all gear classes in relation to the area of capture. The gear classes include: beam trawl, demersal trawl, Nephrops trawl, pelagic trawl, other trawl and dredges. This shows that the most valuable fishing grounds are near the coast in the West SORER, to the North and West of the Hebrides in the North West SORER, and around the Shetlands in the North SORER.

Figures 8 and 9 show the value of all landings caught in inshore areas (21.5% of the total value) and offshore areas (78.5% of the total value) of Scottish waters by selected species and vessel length categories from 2001 to 2010. These time series bar graphs show that in inshore regions, the majority of the value of landings is caught by vessels under 15m in length, since this fleet mainly operates in inshore waters (up to 12 NM from the coast) focusing on shellfish (also see Table 11). In the offshore regions, the value of landings is dominated by vessels 15m and over in length, since these vessels are more suited to operating offshore, and they tend to concentrate their activities in the Northern North Sea, mainly in Scottish waters. Shellfish species, particularly Nephrops, dominate the value of landings from the inshore areas, whereas mackerel is the most valuable species in the offshore areas.

Figure 10 shows the value and volume of all landings caught in Scottish waters as a time series bar graph for each region from 2001 to 2010. This shows that, since 2001, the North Region has had the highest value and volume of catch, with an annual average catch of £162 million (209,000 tonnes), followed by the North West Region, which had an annual average catch of £98 million (112,000 tonnes) and the West Region, which had an annual average catch of £44 million (44,000 tones).

In 2010, 80% of the total value and 72% of the total volume of landings by Scottish vessels were landed into Scottish ports, a figure which has remained fairly constant since 2006.

The number of active Scottish based vessels in 2010 was 2,150, which is the smallest fleet ever recorded; being 16% lower than in 2001.Over two thirds (69%) of the vessels were 10m and under in length, 12% were over 10m and under 15m, and 19% were over 15m in length ( Image 4 ).

Figures 11 and 12 give a national overview of the over flight (surveillance) data by vessel type and nationality. The majority of British vessels (75%) are closest to the coast, with Norwegian, French and Danish vessels being predominantly seen on the periphery of the British vessels. Mast of the vessels, 72% are demersal trawlers with other trawlers and gear types accounting for or further 18%.

Image 4. Number of Active Scottish Based Vessels by Length Grou p.a. at 31 December 2010

The majority (87%) of 10m and under vessels were employed in creel fishing; 83% of vessels over 10m and under 15m in length were mainly employed in Nephrops trawl or creel fishing. 29% of vessels over 10m in length carried out Nephrops trawling as their main fishing method and 27% carried out demersal trawling. Around 96% of vessels employed predominantly in pelagic fishing methods were over 50m in length.

The under 15m in length fleet focuses mainly on shellfish within the inshore waters along the East and West coasts of Scotland. A large proportion (85%) of this fleet is less than 10m in length. The 15m and over fleet catches the majority of the demersal and pelagic species ( Table 10).

Table 10. Quantity and value of landings by Scottish based vessels by species type and vessel length (2010)

Species	10m and Under		Over 10m and Under 15m		15m and Over
	(tonnes)	(£'000)	(tonnes)	(£'000)	(tonnes)	(£'000)
Demersal	98	146	70	1,493	105,079	150,167
Pelagic	606	430	3	2	188,534	128,808
Shellfish	10,575	34,937	11,223	28,771	50,583	90,408
Total Landings	11,278	35,514	11,925	30,265	344,195	369,383

The total of all landings into Scottish ports by Scottish, other UK and foreign fleets was 385,000 tonnes with a total value of £455 million. The top three districts in terms of both volume and value of landings were Peterhead, Shetland and Fraserburgh (Marine Scotland, 2011d). Table 11 shows the volume and value of landings into the top three ports in Scotland by Scottish based vessels in 2010, which collectively constituted 72% of all landings by UK vessels into Scotland by volume.

Table 11. Landings into the top three Scottish ports (2010)

Landings Data	Peterhead	Shetland	Fraserburgh
Tonnes	168, 000	91,000	28,000
Value (£)	140 million	82 million	46 million

Pelagic species accounted for 50% of the value of landings into Peterhead whilst 41% were demersal species and 9% were shellfish. Pelagic species were also the majority of landings into Shetland at just under two-thirds of the total value; demersal species represented 28% and shellfish 7%. In contrast, the landings in Fraserburgh were dominated by shellfish at nearly two-thirds of the total value; demersal species accounted for nearly a quarter and 14% were pelagic species (Marine Scotland, 2011d).

Fish processing activities:

Two distinct sub-sectors make up the processing industry: the primary processors involved in the filleting and freezing of fresh fish for onward distribution to fresh fish retail and catering outlets, and the secondary processors involved in brining, smoking, cooking, freezing, canning, breading, battering and the production of ready-to-eat meals for the retail and catering trades. There are also units carrying out a mixture of these two, known as mixed processors.

The North East SORER is the most important supply region of fish to the primary and mixed processing sectors. Mixed processing units form the majority of the processing industry in this region, followed by primary processing units. Those processors based in the Gra mp.a. region (which falls within the North East SORER) purchase 65% of their supplies from within Gra mp.a. (Brown, 2009).

2.6.3.1 Economic value and employment

In 2009 366,569 tonnes of fish with a first sale value of £416m were landed in Scottish waters. This figure includes all fish caught by UK vessels in Scottish waters and fish caught by non- UK vessels in Scottish waters and landed in the UK (Baxter et al, 2011). Estimates which consider the direct employment in the fisheries sector and indirect economic activity produced as a result of the demand for goods and services by the fisheries sector (for example, supplies such as ice, nets, boxes, fuel and maintenance and chandlery supplies to fishing vessels, packaging and electricity for the processing industry) provide an indication of the overall importance of the fishing sector to the economy as a whole. Fisheries related employment is highly concentrated into relatively few areas, and for these areas the fisheries sector is considerably more important than for Scotland as a whole.

2.6.3.2 Fish catching activities

Scotland has 8.6% of the UK population, but landed 61% by value of the total fish catch in 2010 with Scottish vessels landing 367,000 tonnes of fish worth £435 million (Marine Scotland, 2011d). Scottish vessels make up 33% of the number of vessels in the UK fishing fleet, 59% of the capacity ( GT) of the fleet and 48% of the power (kW) of the UK fleet ( MMO, 2011). In 2007 it was estimated that the total effect on employment (taking account of 'knock-on' or indirect expenditure effects through the economy) of the fish catching industry alone in Scotland was 10,472 full-time equivalent ( FTE) jobs. This activity represented £303m (or 0.4%) GDP i.e. the value of the country's income generated mostly in terms of profits and wages ( BPA, 2008).

The number of fishermen employed on Scottish based vessels was 5,218 in 2010, which is 0.2% of the labour force in Scotland, and represents a decrease of 22% since 2001. 4,257 of these were regular, 909 were part-time and 52 were crofters. Fraserburgh has the highest number of fishermen in employment at 789 fishermen, followed by Ayr with 559 and Shetland with 448. The largest number of part-time fishermen is found on vessels administered by Shetland (217), see Table 12.

Table 12. Number of fishermen employed on Scottish based vessels, by district (2010)

District	Regular	Part-time	Crofters	Total
Eyemouth	148	45	-	193
Pittenweem	120	43	-	163
Aberdeen	94	58	-	152
Peterhead	400	24	-	424
Fraserburgh	671	118	-	789
Buckie	192	51	-	243
Scrabster	168	0	-	168
Total East Coast	1,793	339	0	2,132
Orkney	277	132	-	409
Shetland	231	217	-	448
Stornoway	350	73	17	440
Total Islands	858	422	17	1,297
Kinlochbervie	44	0	-	44
Lochinver	21	1	1	23
Ullapool	274	11	-	285
Portree	167	34	34	235
Mallaig	110	9	-	119
Oban	242	23	-	265
Campbeltown	231	28	-	259
Ayr	517	42	-	559
Total West Coast	1,606	148	35	1,789
All districts	4,257	909	52	5,218

(Source: Scottish Sea Fisheries Stats, 2010)

Although commercial fishing makes a relatively low contribution to Scotland's overall GDP and the production and processing of fish directly accounts for about 1% of employment (3% in rural Scotland), it is a particularly important socio-economic activity in remote coastal regions in Scotland ( UKMMAS, 2010). For Eilean Siar, Orkney and Shetland district the employment in fishing as a percentage of the labour force was the highest at 3.81%. Argyll and Bute district was next at 1.27%, followed by Aberdeenshire at 0.96% (Marine Scotland, 2011d).

Seven of the top ten most profitable fleet 'segments' operate in the North Sea and off the West coast of Scotland ( UKMMAS, 2010). Key factors affecting the level of profits are fuel costs and the cost of access to fishing opportunities (for example, the cost of leasing additional quota). Vessels using more fuel-intensive fishing methods, such as otter trawl and beam trawl segments, experienced the biggest increases in fuel expenditure, while less fuel-intensive methods, such as seining and passive gear segments, experienced relatively modest increases. In 2007, the proportion of earnings spent on fuel ranged from 26% for large trawlers to 7% for smaller vessels ( UKMMAS, 2010).

Quota trading has emerged as an economic activity, which allows vessels to carry on fishing beyond their existing quota allowance. Since 2001, many vessel owners have increasingly purchased or leased additional quota in order to remain in business. The increased expenditure on quota leasing has been particularly acute in the North Sea and West of Scotland demersal trawl fisheries for fin-fish ( UKMMAS, 2010). Following the introduction of Days at Sea ( DAS) regulations in 2003, a market for the purchase of DAS has also developed. It is estimated that some owners of vessels in the North Sea and West of Scotland demersal segments spent up to £20,000 on purchasing days at sea in 2006 ( UKMMAS, 2010).

2.6.3.3 Fish processing activities

The processing and preserving of fish and fish products in Scotland provided a value of £255 million and a turnover of £898 million in 2007 (Baxter et al., 2011). Table 13 shows the number of employees employed in fish processing and retail activities in Scotland in 2009 and 2010.

Table 13. Employment in fish and shellfish processing and retail in Scotland

SIC, 2007	Full-time Employment		Part-time Employment		Total Employment
	2009	2010	2009	2010	2009	2010
Processing and preserving of fish, crustaceans and molluscs ( SIC 10200)	6,439	6,365	762	846	7,198	7,217

(Source: ONS, 2011)

In Annan and Fraserburgh the fish processing sector was by far the main contributor to fisheries related employment. This industry accounts for more jobs than the catching sector and provides employment for women in an otherwise male-dominated labour market. In the Gra mp.a. region (which falls within the North East SORER), 86% of fish processing employees were female in 2008, a rise of 11% since 2004 and the highest proportion in the UK (Brown, 2009). In 2007 employment in fishing, processing and aquaculture activities by travel to work areas varied from 2% of the total employment in the East and North East to 5-10% in the West (Baxter, et al 2011).

2.6.3.4 Historic trends

Fish Catching Activities

The decline in the fishing industry (catching and processing) has been significant over the past two decades. The 2007 workforce in Scotland was approximately half that employed in the early 1970s ( UKMMAS, 2010). However, total fishery landings and employment in the fishing industry have been fairly stable since the mid 2000s.

Fishing activity changes in response to a number of factors: scientific advice; the location of fish; policy measures such as catch limits (quotas), limits on fishing effort (days spent fishing multiplied by the power of the vessel), the need for possible closures and decommissioning schemes; and profitability.

Fishing effort has decreased significantly since the 1990s due to continuing restrictions on fishing activity in order to promote stock recovery (Baxter et al. 2011). EU controls on Total Allowable Catches ( SXAs) and fishing effort and decommissioning of vessels in the UK are likely to have contributed to reductions in total fishing effort in the international demersal fisheries of around 30% or more over the past eight years in the North Sea, West of Scotland and Irish Sea ( UKMMAS, 2010). The UK whitefish demersal trawl fleet was reduced by around 15% in size by the two decommissioning schemes in 2001 and 2003, with a particularly large impact on the Scottish fleet ( UKMMAS, 2010).

Fish Processing Activities

The reduction in landings has had a major impact on the fish processing industry. The number of fish processing units in the UK decreased by 25% between 1995 and 2000 alone, although total employment in the industry increased by 15% over the same period. Since 1995 Gra mp.a. has experienced a 10% decline in the number of units, principally in companies with 25 or fewer employees.

The decline in landings has had a particular impact on primary processors where there has been a shift away from primary processing towards secondary or mixed processing units. Since 2004, the number of demersal-only processing units has decreased by over 30% and employment has more than halved. Mixed species processing accounted for about 45% of the industry's processing units and provided around 58% of total employment in the UK in 2008 (Brown, 2009). The proportion of units processing only shellfish increased in recent years which may be a result of the increased volumes of shellfish landed by UK fishing vessels in recent years.

2.6.3.5 Future trends

Fish Catching Activities

The fisheries sector is currently, and is likely to remain, important to many rural areas in Scotland. Fisheries are potentially impacted by both environmental and anthropogenic factors, including:

• Climate change effects (warming seas), which may result in the decline of stocks of cold-water species, such as cod, in waters around the UK as the stocks move Northwards. However, new opportunities for warmer-water species may emerge as these species extend Northwards into UK seas. Existing more Southerly stocks such as red mullet, John Dory and bass may also experience improved productivity in years with higher average sea temperatures ( UKMMAS, 2010);.
• Anthropogenic effects such as permanent structures, dumping at sea, oil and chemical spills, and the effects of the fisheries themselves, which may impact on the habitats where the fish live; and
• Profitability and political effects, as detailed below.

There are a wide range of factors influencing the financial performance of individual businesses: some are internal to the business (such as strategic decision making, assets and skills), while others are external (and include sectoral competitiveness, the management framework, market conditions and fuel prices). These interact to determine the actual business performance, (Future of Fisheries Management in Scotland: Scottish Government, 2010).

Landings of fish subject to UK quotas set under the EU Common Fisheries Policy ( CFP) generally reflect changes in the quota set, therefore, in the future as species-specific quotas are raised or lowered, this will have an impact on the amount of that species landed. This is difficult to predict and will depend on the recovery and sustainability of individual species as well as the how the CFP is reformed in 2012 (Scottish Sea Fisheries, 2010).

Fisheries management will continue to focus on bringing down rates of exploitation to Maximum Sustainable Yield ( MSY) targets. The majority of scientifically assessed stocks continue to be fished at rates well above the levels expected to provide the highest long-term yield ( UKMMAS, 2010), therefore, there is increasing downward pressure on the levels of exploitation allowed. It is likely that pressure to reduce discarding will increase, though without allowing overall catch to rise. Management measures will need to reduce bycatch and discards, and be more responsive to changing patterns of fish migration and movement (Baxter et al. 2011).

Reform of the CFP in 2012 may result in significant changes to the aims and objectives of the policy with a consequent effect on management. The outcome of this reform process cannot be predicted with any certainty but one possibility is that EU fisheries may be managed on a regional basis and fishermen may be more directly involved in the management of the fish stocks. (Baxter et al. 2011)

The certification of sustainable fisheries by the Marine Stewardship Council ( MSC) may bring marketing advantages in a climate of increasing public and commercial awareness of sustainability issues, and where there is a desire to source fish and shellfish from environmentally responsible businesses. Currently, there are eight UK fisheries in UK waters with MSC accreditation, including five pelagic fisheries for herring or mackerel, a bass fishery, a Nephrops creel fishery, and a cockle fishery. Several fisheries are also undergoing evaluation in the scheme including the North Sea haddock and Nephrops fisheries ( UKMMAS, 2010).

Scottish fisheries with accreditation ( MSC website):

• Scottish Fisheries Sustainable Accreditation Group ( SFSAG) North Sea haddock - this fishery was certified as sustainable in October 2010. It is located in the North Sea ( ICES Sub-Area IVa, b) and contains 192 vessels using seine and trawl methods;
• Scottish Pelagic Sustainability Group Ltd Atlanto Scandian herring - this fishery was certified as sustainable in March 2010. It is located in the ICES Sub-Area I, IIa, IIb, V and XIV and contains 25 vessels from the Scottish RSW pelagic trawl fleet; and
• Scottish Pelagic Sustainability Group Ltd ( SPSG) North Sea herring - this fishery was certified as sustainable in July 2008. The Scottish fleet mainly exploits the Buchan sub-stock of herring located in the central and Northern North Sea within the EEZ of the EU and Norway.

Fish Processing Activities

The availability, quality and conservation of fish stocks are major concerns for the processing industry. Landings of pelagic and demersal species have continued to decrease over the last decade, therefore, there is a lower volume of these species available to the processing industry (Brown, 2009). By contrast there is a larger volume of shellfish available to processors. No industry can continue unchanged while its major raw materials become less readily available. Firms engaged in some secondary processes or other diversification, are best plansd to achieve financial stability in the near future. The process of rationalisation, which has been witnessed in recent years, will result in fewer bigger firms which are more likely to be geared up for obtaining supplies via direct routes and from overseas.

2.6.4 Wild Salmon and Sea Trout

Scotland is famous for its wild salmon Salmo salar and sea trout Salmo trutta. These fish spend several years in rivers, migrate to sea then return as adults to spawn. Marine migrations in salmon are generally more extensive than those of sea trout (Baxter et al. 2011).

All salmon fishing and sea trout fishing rights in Scotland, including in the sea, are private, heritable titles, which may be held separately from any land. They fall into one of three broad categories:

• Fixed engine fisheries - are restricted to the coast and must be set outside estuary limits;
• Net and coble fisheries - generally operate in estuaries and the lower reaches of rivers; and
• Rod and line fisheries - generally operate within rivers and above tidal limits.

There are 45 fishing stations in mainland Scotland: East coast - 22; North coast - 5; and West coast and islands - 18. The locations of fixed engine and net and coble fisheries in Scotland are shown in Figure 13.

Total rod catch for salmon was the highest on record in 2010, an increase of 31% from the previous 5-year average. However, despite increases in the catch and effort for fixed engine and net and coble fisheries in 2010, catch and effort remain at historically low levels, being less than 7% of the maximum recorded for each fishery since records began in 1952. Trends in rod and line catch are distinctly different from those in the net fisheries; the total rod catch in 2010 was 160% of the average over the period from 1952 when records began. Rod and line catch comprised 80% of the total Scottish catch in 2010 compared with 11% in 1952 (Scottish Government, 2011b), see Table 14.

Table 14. Reported annual catches, number of salmon (2006 - 2010)

Year	Fixed Engine	Net and Coble	Rod and Line (Retained)	Rod and Line (Released)
2006	18,821	6,188	38,476	47,556
2007	13,618	6,279	35,583	55,515
2008	11,703	3,957	32,821	53,038
2009	8,206	4,649	24,228	48,367
2010	15,577	11,738	32,712	77,784

(Source: Scottish Government, 2011b)

Marine survival of salmon has declined substantially over the period covered by the catch statistics and similar declines have been detected in a number of sites on both sides of the North Atlantic. However, reductions in the netting fisheries have allowed a greater proportion of fish to enter rivers, resulting in an increase in the numbers of fish available to the rod fisheries (Scottish Government, 2011b).

Total rod catch for sea trout has declined over much of the period since 1952, however, catches increased by 34% in 2010 compared with the previous 5-year average. Total rod catch continued the recent increase seen in East coast fisheries, but fell back in the West. Overall, West coast sea trout fisheries remain at historically low levels. Sea trout catches in the fixed engine and net and coble fisheries were 4 and 5% of the maximum recorded catches, respectively, and effort was just 3 and 6% of the maximum reported (Marine Scotland, 2011c), see Table 15.

Table 15. Reported annual catches, number of sea trout (2006 - 2010)

Year	Fixed Engine	Net and Coble	Rod and Line (Retained)	Rod and Line (Released)
2006	3,239	4,931	10,058	10,617
2007	2,671	2,903	10,383	11,164
2008	2,810	2,732	7,612	9,631
2009	3,742	5,636	8,195	15,530
2010	2,360	8,663	7,843	19,861

(Source: Marine Scotland, 2011c)

An important factor in the decline of the sea trout netting fisheries, as indicated by a decline in reported effort, has been a decline in the salmon netting industry, since in the vast majority of cases salmon is the primary target species for these fisheries (Marine Scotland, 2011c).

Reported sea trout catches remain at historically low levels, which may indicate low numbers of fish both entering fresh water and escaping to spawn.

The overall value of these fisheries to the economy is difficult to calculate. Figures for GVA and numbers employed cannot be obtained from the Annual Business Inquiry ( ABI), as it does not separately assess this activity. Rod fishermen cannot sell their catch, but they pay for their fishing experience and contribute to the general tourist economy by spending on accommodation and associated expenditure (Baxter et al. 2011). Net and coble and fixed engine fisheries can sell their catch so it can be a very valuable activity at an individual fisherman level.

Employment tends to be seasonal particularly in the net fisheries. The numbers fluctuate, but July provides the greatest employment in the net fisheries (Baxter et al. 2011), as follows:

• Net and coble 117 (2005) and 75 (2009); and
• Fixed engine 180 (2005) and 150 (2009).

The netting industry in Scotland has declined to historically low levels. In 2010, wild salmon catch and effort was 7% of the maximum recorded level and sea trout catch and effort was around 4.5% of the maximum recorded level. Netting effort in the fixed engine fisheries (median number of traps operated within Scotland between February and September) was reported as 888 median number of traps across all regions of Scotland in 2010, with the highest number (710) operating in the Solway region. Effort in the net and coble fisheries was reported as 65.5 median number of crews across all regions of Scotland in 2010 with the highest number operating in the Forth region (Marine Scotland, 2011e) in rod and line catch are distinctly different from those in the net fisheries; the total rod catch for salmon in 2010 (reported as 110,500 catches) was 160% of the average over the period from 1952 when records began. Total rod catch for sea trout has declined over much of this period, however, catches increased by 34% in 2010 (to 27,700 catches) compared with the previous 5-year average. Total rod catch continued the recent increase seen in East coast fisheries, but fell back in the West. Overall, West coast sea trout fisheries remain at historically low levels.

The sector's future very much depends on the status of stocks together with the general economic situation. New coastal salmon nets are rarely opened and the main trend has been for declining catch and fishing effort in the net fisheries (Baxter et al. 2011).

In the future, if the marine survival of salmon continues to decrease then rod catches may decline and ultimately spawning populations may be at risk (Scottish Government, 2011b).

2.7 Energy Generation

2.7.1 Definition of Sector/Activity

The energy generation sector includes conventional energy generation (coal, gas, nuclear, etc.) as well as renewables. In addition to the power generation assets themselves, it also incorporates supply chains for renewables along with transmission capacity. The main supply chain activities considered therefore include:

• Manufacturing and installation of wind, wave and tidal devices and associated infrastructure; and
• Operation and maintenance of devices including grid connections.

Although other activities such as applying for development consents are part of the energy generation sector, they are not considered in detail here since it would be difficult to obtain data to allow their accurate valuation.

2.7.2 Description of Information Sources

2.7.2.1 Identified sources

A variety of different information sources has been reviewed to inform this baseline, including published reports and papers, spatial layers and information provided through stakeholder engagement ( Table 16).

Table 16. Data sources used in the energy generation chapter

Scale	Information Available	Date	Source
Scotland	Amount of electricity generated by energy source in Scotland (Scottish Environmental Statistics Online)	2009	Scottish Government Statistics
Scotland	National Renewables Infrastructure Plan Reports on Stages 1 and 2	2010	SE & HIE, 2010
Scotland	Blue Seas - Green Energy - A Sectoral Marine Plan for Offshore Wind Energy in Scottish Territorial Waters	2010	Marine Scotland, 2010b
UK	Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2011	2011	DECC
Scotland	Scotland's Offshore Wind Route Map - Developing Scotland's Offshore Wind Industry to 2020	2010	Offshore Wind Industry Group
Scotland	The Offshore Valuation - A valuation of the UK's offshore renewable energy resource	2010	Public Interest Research Centre on behalf of The Offshore Valuation Group, 2010
Scotland	Scottish Offshore Wind: Creating an Industry to Scottish Renewables	2010	IPA Energy + Water Economics, 2010
Scotland	Information and analysis of wave & tidal market in Scotland	2011	Pure Marine Gen Ltd, 2011
Scotland	Draft Electricity Generation Policy Statement 2010	2010	Scottish Government
Scotland	A Low Carbon Economic Strategy for Scotland	2010	Scottish Government, SEPA, Highlands and Islands Enterprise, and Scottish Enterprise
UK	Tidal Technology Development and Deployment in the UK: Tidal Technologies: Key issues across planning and development for environmental regulators	2011	Bullen, Johnson, Kerr and Side, 2011
West Coast	Scottish Offshore Renewables Development Sites	2011	Scottish Development International, Highlands and Islands Enterprise, and Scottish Enterprise, 2011
Scotland	Scotland's Renewable Energy Potential: realising the 2020 target	2005	Scottish Executive, 2005, Future Generation Group Report
Scotland	2020 Routemap for Renewable Energy in Scotland	2011	Scottish Government
Scotland	Interim Great Britain Seven Year Statement	2004	National Grid, 2004
Scotland	Impact of alternative electricity generation technologies on the Scottish economy: an illustrative input-output analysis	2006	Allan, McGregor, Swales and Turner, 2006
Scotland	The Economic Impact of Renewable Energy Policy in Scotland and the UK	2011	Verso Economics, 2011
Scotland	Energy in Scotland: A Compendium of Scottish Energy Statistics and Information	2010	Scottish Government
Scotland	The Future of Electricity Generation in Scotland	2008	Scottish Council for Development & Industry

2.7.2.2 Data limitations

This energy generation section aims both to describe current energy generation in Scotland and to identify the likely future trends that would occur in the absence of further policy intervention. This means that future trends need to be based on existing approved actions rather than on projections that might arise from future p.a.s. For this reason, many recent data and figures which indicate future trends cannot be included within this baseline, since they make assumptions about the content of possible future p.a.s. Given that offshore wind, wave and tidal development are in their infancy in Scottish waters and most schemes that have been approved are yet to be built, the scale, location and nature of supply chain development has yet to be established.

2.7.3 National Overview of Current Activity

2.7.3.1 Conventional electricity generation

At the end of May 2008 Scotland had five major conventional power stations in operation. These included ^[3] :

• Hunterston B in West Scotland: a nuclear power station commissioned in 1976 with an installed capacity of 820 MW;
• Torness in East Scotland: a nuclear power station commissioned in 1988 with an installed capacity of 1,230;
• Peterhead in North East Scotland: a gas/oil power station originally commissioned in 1980 with an installed capacity of 2,370 MW but limited to 1,540 MW due to transmission constraints. (It should be noted that since commissioning, various upgrading and conversion works have taken plans. Also, two 250 MW gas turbines were decommissioned in 2009 ^[4] );
• Cockenzie in East Scotland: a coal fired power station which was commissioned in 1967 with an installed capacity of 1,152 MW; and
• Longannet in East Scotland: a coal fired power station which was commissioned in 1970 with an installed capacity of 2,304 MW.

Cockenzie and Longannet combined provide around 33% of Scotland's electricity needs ^[5] .

2.7.3.2 Renewable electricity generation

In addition to the five major conventional power stations listed above, Scotland also has a large pumped storage power station. Cruachan, located in West Scotland, has an installed capacity of 440 MW ³. It was officially opened in 1965 with two machines, with a further two machines being completed in 1966 and 1967 respectively ^[6] . Other renewable sources which are currently exploited include wind, wave and biomass. Table 17 shows the total installed capacity for renewable energy sources in Scotland for the last decade. This indicates that wind (including wave) represented 55% of the total renewables capacity in 2009, up from 3% in 2000. This increase in wind capacity is illustrated by Image 5 (based on the data in Table 18). The majority of wind generation currently occurs onshore. As of 2010, Scotland had two operational offshore wind sites: the Beatrice demonstrator project (two 5 MW turbines) and Robin Rigg (180 MW capacity) ( IPA Energy + Water Economics and Scottish Renewables, 2010).

Figure 14 provides an overview of current and earmarked renewable energy generation sites in Scotland. Note that for the purposes of this baseline, only wind, wave or tidal schemes which have been built or consented, or for which a p.a. or lease has been granted are included. Therefore, consideration is limited to:

• The five short-term option sites approved by Blue Seas - Green Energy - A Sectoral Marine Plan for Offshore Wind Energy in Scottish Territorial Waters (The Crown Estate, 2011);
• The two Round 3 OWF sites - Moray Firth and Firth of Forth (since these are the result of a separate policy process);
• Aberdeen and Beatrice demonstrator sites;
• Western Isles wave and tidal agreements to lease;
• Billa Croo wave power test facility;
• Fall of Warness tidal power test facility;
• Pentland Firth and Orkney Strategic Area; and
• Licensed wave and tidal sites, for example the Sound of Islay tidal stream site, the Limpet project and the two EMEC nursery sites.

Table 17. Installed capacity for renewables in Scotland ( MWe)

Year	Hydro	Wind and Wave	Landfill Gas	Sewage Gas	Other Biofuels	Total
2000	1319.9	38.5	14.4	Included in other biofuels	18.2	1391.0
2001	1325.1	43.5	16.6	Included in other biofuels	18.3	1403.5
2002	1303.8	185.7	26.2	Included in other biofuels	21.8	1537.5
2003	1,298.5	308.3	48.2	Included in other biofuels	20.8	1,675.8
2004	1,307.6	412.0	61.7	Included in other biofuels	21.0	1,802.3
2005	1,311.6	746.5	71.5	Included in other biofuels	21.0	2,150.6
2006	1,330.6	946.5	78.3	Included in other biofuels	43.8	2,399.2
2007	1,339.5	1149.7	92.2	Included in other biofuels	92.2	2,673.6
2008	1,443.9	1708.0	94.1	Included in other biofuels	92.8	3,338.8
2009	1,456.3	2115.4	107.6	7.2	133.9	3,820.4

Notes: Sewage gas was included under other biofuels until 2009.

(Source: DECC data available in the Energy Statistics Database of the Scottish Government: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/Energy/Database)

Image 5. Installed Capacity for Wind (Including Wave) in Scotland

2.7.3.3 Supply chain for renewables

The supply chain for renewables covers all the jobs associated with manufacturing, transporting and installing renewable devices, as well as related tasks such as maintenance, surveying, and operations. This baseline focuses on the main supply chain activities such as the manufacture, installation, operation and maintenance of renewable energy devices.

Although the supply chain for onshore wind is providing jobs across Scotland (Scottish Executive, 2005), development of the fixed offshore wind supply chain has been slow both in the UK and Europe as a whole (Public Interest Research Centre, 2010). However, IPA Energy + Water Economics and Scottish Renewables (2010) note that there is existing capacity in the Scottish supply chain for offshore wind. The main strengths of this supply chain are listed as (ibid):

• Offshore engineering with expertise in construction, operations and maintenance, project management and training (due to the offshore Oil and Gas sector);
• Design and development services including consultancy, engineering and project development services;
• Research and development expertise in the private sector, academia and public sector funded programmes;
• Existing port facilities with North Sea access and surrounding offshore service networks; and
• Fabrication and manufacturing of components.

IPA Energy + Water Economics and Scottish Renewables (2010) also note that there is much untapped potential for companies which are not currently involved in the sector. Indeed, stage 1 of the National Renewables Infrastructure Plan ( NRIP) identified a list of sites which could be developed to support offshore wind. These included (Scottish Enterprise and Highlands and Islands Enterprise, 2010):

• Leith - integrated manufacturing;
• Dundee - distributed manufacturing and operation/maintenance;
• Nigg (note that this site has already been used to support the Beatrice Demonstration Project) - integrated manufacturing;
• Energy Park Fife at Methil (some supply chain investment has already occurred here) - further manufacturing;
• Aberdeen - distributed manufacturing and operation/maintenance;
• Hunterston - integrated manufacturing;
• Arnish - distributed manufacturing;
• Campbeltown/Machrihanish (some supply chain investment has already occurred here) - further manufacturing and operation/maintenance;
• Ardersier - integrated manufacturing;
• Peterhead - distributed manufacturing and operation/maintenance; and
• Kishorn - distributed manufacturing.

These sites are marked on Figure 17.

For the wave and tidal supply chain, site owners at Scrabster and Lyness in Scapa Flow are developing investment proposals so that there is support at these sites for companies awarded leases by the Crown Estate (Scottish Enterprise and Highlands and Islands Enterprise, 2010).

2.7.3.4 Transmission capacity

Scotland's transmission grid is mainly made up of 400 kV and 275 kV lines which join the major nuclear and coal fired power stations in the central belt with the Peterhead p.a.t in North East Scotland (Scottish Council for Development & Industry, 2008). The Scottish grid is connected to the English grid with four transmission lines which form two double circuits; on the East, the circuit operates at 400 kV, whilst on the West part of the circuit operates at 400 kV and the remainder runs at 275 kV (ibid). Connection between Scotland and Northern Ireland is via the 500 MW Moyle Interconnector which joins Ballantrae with Ballylumford (Scottish Council for Development & Industry, 2008).

Figure 18a provides a pictorial representation of transmission capacity.

2.7.3.5 Current economic value and employment

The total amount of electricity generated in Scotland in 2009 was 51,325 GWh, up from 49,843 GWh in 2008 ^[7] . Note however that over the past decade, the total generated has remained reasonably stable, with a high of 52,250 GWh in 2006 and a low of 48,073 GWh in 2007. Looking at the 2009 figure of 51,325 GWh, gross electricity consumption was 39,179 GWh whilst 12,145 GWh were exported from Scotland Renewable energy generation was 10,744 GWh in 2009, representing 21% of total electricity generated ^[7] . Although the Renewables Action Plan ^[8] notes that there is a lack of robust employment data on the renewable energy sector in Scotland, estimates do exist. Direct employment in the generation of renewable energy in Scotland was estimated at around 1,100 for 2009/10 (Verso Economics, 2011). This compares with a total for the energy sector as a whole (including water supply) of 42,000 people in 2008 (Scottish Government, 2010c). Although this latter figure represents 1.7% of total employee jobs in Scotland, it does not include those people who work in the supply chain, thus the actual figure ^[9] could be larger (Scottish Government, 2010c). Given the share of electricity generated by renewables, it is likely that employment related to renewable energy is also larger than the figure quoted, since this only relates to direct employment, and therefore does not consider indirect or knock-on jobs ^[10] .

To gain a better understanding of employment in the sector, statistics from the Business Register and Employment Survey can be used to estimate the total size of the workforce directly involved in electricity through looking at the SIC codes. Figures for 2009 and 2010 for full and part-time work under several relevant codes are given in Table 18. Note that codes for extraction of oil and gas, and support activities related to extraction are not considered here to avoid any double counting with the oil and gas sector figures. Summing the values in Table 19 provides overall totals of 32,758 and 31,381 for direct employment in electricity in 2009 and 2010 respectively. However, these values should be treated as underestimates since there will be workers in other sectors, for example, technical testing and analysis, who will be employed in the wider energy sector. Therefore, the actual figure for employment supported by the energy sector is likely to be somewhat higher than both the SIC code counts given here and the Scottish Government estimate of around 42,000 for 2008. At this point it should be noted that the Scottish workforce as a whole is highly qualified with 33.9% of residents aged 16-64 educated to NVQ4 level and above (Scottish Development International et al, 2011).

Table 18. Direct employment in the electricity sector in Scotland by SIC Code

SIC Code, 2007	Full-time		Part-time		Total
	2009	2010	2009	2010	2009	2010
Production of electricity (3511)	4,880	6,937	407	560	5,283	7,459
Transmission of electricity (3512)	1,005	1046	180	192	1,185	1,238
Distribution of electricity (3513)	3,560	3686	398	461	3,957	4,143
Trade of electricity (3514)	205	225	1	7	206	229
Construction of utility projects for electricity and telecommunications (4222)	53	127	1	6	54	132
Electrical installation (4321)	20,914	17,303	1,117	741	22,073	18,180
Totals (note these may not sum exactly due to rounding)	30,617	29.324	2,104	1,967	32,758	31,381

(Source: ONS, 2011)

2.7.3.6 Historical trends

Renewables as a percentage of gross electricity consumption has increased; in 2000 12.2% of electricity consumed in Scotland came from renewables, yet by 2009 the figure was 27.4%. This increase is likely to be have been partly driven by the Scottish Renewable Orders ( SROs) of which there have been three ^[11] :

• 1994 order - this required around 76 MW DNC of new capacity comprising 30 schemes. By the end of December 2010, 18 schemes had been commissioned with a capacity of 39 MW DNC;
• 1997 order - this required 114 MW DNC of new capacity comprising 26 schemes. By the end of 2010, 11 schemes had been commissioned with a capacity of 38 MW DNC; and
• 1999 order - this required 145 MW DNC of new capacity consisting of 53 schemes. By the end of 2010, 15 schemes had been commissioned with a capacity of 26 MW DNC.

The amount of electricity generated by wind (including a small amount of tidal) in the past decade in Scotland is shown in Image 6 below ^[7] . Technology in the marine energy sector (i.e. wave and tidal) has developed at a slower rate than wind, with few devices proven to operate at a commercial scale (Pure Marine Gen Ltd, 2011). However, one example of a successful deployment is Wavegen's LIMPET project on Islay. This was one of the first wave energy projects to be connected to the grid, and has been operational since 2001 (Scottish Development International et al, 2011).

Image 6. Energy Generated from Wind (Including Wave) in Scotland

2.7.3.7 Future trends

Generation

It has been suggested that significant reductions in Scotland's electricity generating capacity would occur as coal and nuclear power stations closed and the importance of renewables grew (Allan et al, 2006). However, in the next few decades, Scotland has the capacity to install offshore renewable generation devices which could produce over 60 GW of generating capacity (Scottish Development International et al, 2011). Renewable energy is being promoted as an economic opportunity (Verso Economic, 2011). Indeed, the Scottish Government's target is to meet the equivalent of 100% of gross annual electricity demand from renewables by 2020 ^[12] .

For the purposes of the future baseline, however, it is only necessary to consider those developments that have already been approved either under existing offshore wind p.a.s or specific licensing of wave and tidal developments. This includes the six Scottish Territorial Waters sites (total capacity of around 4.8GW) approved under the offshore wind Plan. It additionally includes sites resulting from other policy processes, i.e. the two Round 3 sites - Moray and Forth - which also have a potential installed capacity of up to 4.8GW. For wave and tidal power, the baseline includes the recently licensed Sound of Islay tidal stream development with an installed capacity of 10MW, the Limpet project, the Western Isles wave and tidal agreements to lease and the EMEC nursery sites. Providing that all these sites are ultimately developed, it is expected that renewable energy generation in Scotland will expand.

Transmission Capacity

The Interim Great Britain Seven Year Statement indicates that there is likely to be a need for new infrastructure/reinforcement in many areas of Scotland to ensure that generated power can be transmitted to where it is required, for example, new infrastructure will be necessary to connect power generation around the Western Isles, Orkney and Shetland to the mainland transmission network (National Grid, 2004). Indeed, problems have already occurred in some areas. Within Scotland, wind connection is restricted due to insufficient transmission capacity across the Scottish border, with 16 GW of wind awaiting connection in 2007 (Public Interest Research Centre, 2010). There are also issues with congestion in the power transmission network between the North and the South of the UK (Public Interest Research Centre, 2010). However, p.a.s do exist to increase the capacity of power interconnections from Scotland to both England and Northern Ireland, as well as for a new major interconnector to Norway (Scottish Development International et al, 2011). In addition, there are p.a.s for around 1,800 MW of subsea interconnectors along the West and East coasts of Scotland (Scottish Development International et al, 2011), whilst p.a.s for a strategic set of grid upgrades across Scotland are already progressing (Scottish Government, 2010d). It is therefore likely that the future trend in transmission capacity will be u p.a.ds.

It should however be noted that transmission capacity is complicated by the variability in generation which renewables provide (Public Interest Research Centre, 2010). Despite this, it is stressed by the Scottish Executive (2005) that transmission capacity has to be built on the basis of firm development proposals, rather than on the expectation that new or developing technologies will eventually be put in plans. Stakeholder responses to this study indicate that there is the hope that energy generation companies can collaborate rather than compete on grid connection to ensure economies of scale are achieved. This is likely to be critical given that the best sources of renewable energy are typically located at the edges of the current grid network, rather than the centre (Scottish Government, 2011a).

Supply Chain for Renewables

It is believed that there is already a strong supply chain due to the well-established and experienced Oil and Gas industry (Scottish Development International et al, 2011). However, although several locations can deal with operations and maintenance, the future requirements of the renewables supply chain cannot yet be fully met at any one of Scotland's ports ^[13] (Scottish Enterprise and Highlands and Islands Enterprise, 2010a; 2010b). The ability of the supply chain to increase capacity could affect the level of resource development, in particular for fixed and floating offshore wind (Public Interest Research Centre, 2010). Indeed, the Offshore Wind Industry Group (2010) comments that Scotland's indigenous supply chain may not be prepared in time to take advantage of developments in renewables. Thus, there exists uncertainity over the capability of the renewables supply chain to meet potential demand if more renewable devices are to be installed.

However, despite the uncertainty, some wind and wave devices are already operational, so it is anticipated that supply chain activities such as servicing and maintenance of existing devices will continue. Indeed, as noted earlier, investment in the supply chain for offshore wind has already taken plans at Nigg, Campbeltown/Machrihanish and Energy Park Fifie at Methil (Scottish Enterprise and Highlands and Islands Enterprise, 2010). For example, one company at Machrihanish now has new buildings, which will help modernise production and allow the p.a.t to manufacture larger turbine tower sections for onshore and offshore renewables (ibid). There has additionally been some investment at Arnish by the HIE (ibid). This has helped to create a multi-user site with a focus on renewables ((Scottish Enterprise and Highlands and Islands Enterprise, 2011).

Implementation of the earmarked offshore wind developments (and tidal developments) is likely to lead to strong growth and further investment in supply chain activities within Scotland including:

• Work on development and consents (including monitoring and surveys);
• Manufacturing of new renewable devices. Indeed, it should be noted that most jobs related to renewable energy occur in the construction plans of development (Scottish Executive, 2005); and
• Installation of new renewable devices.

Given the number of sites which have already been earmarked for offshore wind development, it is anticipated that there will initially be a considerable increase in jobs relating to surveying, development and monitoring. This will probably be followed by an increase in supply chain activity such as manufacturing and installation of wind devices. The magnitude of this increase will be dependent on the number of sites which actually progress through the development process from initial suggestions to dealing with any issues, implementing any mitigation policies and ultimately building and installing turbines. Provided that some of the earmarked sites are developed, there will be an increased requirement for servicing and maintenance related jobs and employment. These may be focused on the supply chain sites identified in Stage 1 of the National Renewables Infrastructure Plan.

Considering the tidal and wave supply chain, maintenance work is expected to continue where devices are being tested or are already installed and construction work will be associated with the approved development in the Sound of Islay and further installation of prototypes at EMEC. However the volume of work related to new developments will be much more limited than for offshore wind. Therefore, although some expansion of the tidal and wave supply chain is likely, this will be minimal, and will probably be centred on sites where investment proposals are already being developed, for example, Scrabster and Lyness in Scapa Flow (identified by the National Renewables Infrastructure Plan Stage 1).

2.8 Military Interests

2.8.1 Definition of Sector/Activity

The military defence sector makes use of the Scottish coastline for the location of bases and training and use of the sea for training, test and evaluation activities and the surveillance and monitoring of waters to detect and respond to potential threats. In this assessment military interests comprise the use of the coast and seas by the Royal Navy (submarine bases, jetties and exercise areas), Army (training camps and firing ranges), Royal Air Force (bases, coastal Air Weapon Ranges and Danger Areas) and MOD (Defence Test and Evaluation Ranges to trial weapon systems) (Baxter et al, 2011).

2.8.2 Description of Information Sources

A range of information has been accessed to inform this baseline, including published reports, spatial data layers and other specific information provided through stakeholder engagement ( Table 19).

Table 19. Information sources for military interests baseline

Scale	Information Available	Date	Source
Scotland	Scottish Naval Exercise Areas Information	2010	http://rnopsscotland.netfirms.com/index.htm
Scotland	Exercise areas, firing ranges and military coastal locations	2010	Baxter et al, 2011; Marine Scotland
Scotland	Military and civilian personnel numbers	2011	DASA ( www.dasa.mod.uk) and UK National Statistic ( www.statistics.gov.uk) websites
UK	Estimate of economic value of naval defence	2008	UK Defence Statistics www.dasa.mod.uk/modintranet/UKDS/UKDS2011/pdf/ukds.pdf; UKMMAS, 2010.

2.8.2.1 Data limitations

Owing to the confidential nature of military defence activities it is difficult to assess the extent and frequency of activity in the marine environment and future trends ( UKMMAS, 2010).

2.8.3 National Overview of Current Activity

2.8.3.1 Location and intensity of activity

Military activities occur in both inshore and offshore waters in all SORERs. All coastal military locations and the full area available for military training and other defence activities are shown in Figure 15. Principal marine-related defence activities include sea transport by naval vessels and sea training. Activities relating to maritime transport are mainly associated with naval bases and the only naval base in Scotland is Her Majesty's Naval Base ( HMNB) Clyde at Faslane in the West SORER. Sea training is carried out within defined military p.a.tise and exercise ( PEXA) training areas. The Navy's Scottish Exercise Areas ( SXAs) occur in all SORERs except the North and North East, while firing danger areas and 'other' exercise areas occur in all SORERs. Although the PEXA cover large areas of sea, military exercises cover only a proportion of these areas at any one time and are restricted temporally to a number of weeks per year. The major training exercise each year is the Joint Maritime Course in which Navy, Army and RAF exercises are conducted off the Scottish North West coast and which lasts for two weeks ( UKMMAS, 2010).

2.8.3.2 Economic value and employment

Defence activities do not generate a tangible output and therefore can not be valued. However, one can examine the expenditure within relevant departments, e.g. the Commander-in-Chief ( C-in-C) Navy Command which is responsible for the operation, resourcing and personnel training of ships, submarines and aircraft ( UKMMAS, 2010).

UKMMAS (2010) estimated that in 2007/08, the UK military defence expenditure for the operation of marine activities was £1,796million with a GVA of £468 million. Using the same methodology, the 2009/10 value has been recalculated using the Department Expenditure Limits ( DEL) for the C-in-C Navy Command based on the UK Defence Statistics 2011 provided on the Defence Analytical Services and Advice website ^[14] . In 2009/10 the resource DEL allocated to the C-in-C Navy Command was £2,294million. Based on the assumption that the majority of this budget was for the operation of marine activity, and that 17.7% of this total budget (i.e. £406million) would be allocated to the C-in-C Naval Home Command for shore based operations, it can be estimated that expenditure for the operation of marine activities was £1,888million with a GVA of £491million. It is not possible to estimate what proportion of this value can be attributed to military defence activities in Scotland.

In terms of employment, at July 2011, there were 11,910 military (armed forces) personnel and 5,430 civilian personnel based in Scotland. The armed forces comprised 4,680 Navy, 3,200 Army and 4,030 RAF personnel ( MOD, 2011a).

2.8.3.3 Historical trends

Owing to the confidential nature of military defence activities it is difficult to assess historical trends. With respect to employment, since 2003, the number of military and civilian personnel based in Scotland has fallen from 15,080 to 12,080 and from 9,600 to 5,540 respectively ( MOD, 2011b).

2.8.3.4 Future trends

Specific defence projects may provide significant employment opportunities. For example, with respect to future aircraft carriers, building the hull sections and outfitting the vessels will provide work for about 10,000 people, including 3,500 at the two Clyde yards and 1,600 at Rosyth, Fife at the project's p.a. ( UKMMAS, 2010).

Owing to the confidential nature of military defence activities it is difficult to assess likely future trends, however future employment will be governed by the forth coming spending cuts within the Ministry of Defence. In addition there are p.a.s to build the next generation of submarines, which may be constructed in Scotland as in the past.

2.9 Oil and Gas

2.9.1 Definition of Sector/Activity

This sector relates to the extraction of Oil and Gas in the sub-sea environment largely from offshore reserves. Oil reserves include both oil and the liquids and liquefied products obtained from gas fields, gas-condensate fields and from the associated gas in oil fields. Gas reserves are the quantity of gas expected to be available for sale from dry gas fields, gas-condensate fields and oil fields with associated gas. For this assessment, activity within this sector includes exploration, production, interconnectors and gas storage (i.e. the 'upstream' Oil and Gas sector).

2.9.2 Description of Information Sources

A range of information has been accessed to inform this baseline, including published reports, spatial data layers and other specific information provided through stakeholder engagement ( Table 20).

Table 20. Information sources for oil and gas baseline

Scale	Information Available	Date	Source
Scotland	All pipelines and cables	Current	SeaZone Solutions Ltd
UK	Oil Pipelines - Subsea pipelines and umbilical's related to the petroleum industry.	Current	UKDEAL
UK	Oil and Gas employment	2009	Oil and Gas UK 2010 and 2011 Economic reports.
UK	Production values of crude oil and average oil price per tonne	2008-2010	DECC
Scotland	Revenues and production from Scottish Sea areas (2005-2008). Oil, gas and NGL production and revenue (2005-2008) for all Scottish waters and regional breakdown.	2005-2008	Baxter et al, 2011

2.9.2.1 Data limitations

Specific limitations of the data include currently being unable to determine the economic value of pipelines associated with Oil and Gas from the overall economic value of the sector as a whole ( ABPmer and RPA, 2011). Complete data sets relating to the income and expenditure for Oil and Gas were unavailable at the time of writing.

2.9.3 National Overview of Current Activity

2.9.3.1 Location and intensity of activity

There is extensive infrastructure associated with Oil and Gas developments in Scotland, including seabed and p.a.form mounted production facilities and networks of pipelines bringing Oil and Gas ashore for processing (Baxter et al, 2011; Figure 16). Pipelines associated with Oil and Gas in Scotland are estimated to be 12,800 km in length although the majority of pipelines exist outwith the 12 NM limit (i.e. offshore) around the coast. Virtually all hydrocarbon fields, p.a.forms, pipelines and infrastructure occur within the North, North East and East SORERs in the North Sea, with the exception of some licensed blocks in the North West and South West SORERs, and three interconnector pipelines within the South West SORER which take gas across the Irish Sea (Figure 16). The West SORER only has two Oil and Gas pipelines, as shown in Figure 75 and this therefore is not considered further for this industry within the document. There is currently no gas storage activity in Scottish Waters (Baxter et al, 2011).

Information on the production of oil, natural gas liquids ( NGL) and gas from Scottish Sea areas between 2005 and 2008 are provided by Baxter et al (2011) and are shown in Table 21. The values show that production levels of Oil and Gas have remained roughly constant between 2005 and 2008, although there was a reduction in the tonnage of NGL in 2008 compared to previous years.

Table 21. Production and revenues from oil and gas from Scottish sea areas between 2005-2008

Production	2005	2006	2007	2008
Oil (tonnage)	56,751,985	51,734,343	54,900,487	53,081,406
NGL (tonnage)	5,439,147	5,458,028	5,551,411	4,435,130
Gas (therms) millions	18,218	16,311	17,200	19,606
Revenue	2005	2006	2007	2008
Oil (£M)	12,165	13,389	14,805	20,137
NGL (£M)	1,238	1,528	1,596	1,672
Gas (£M)	4,406	5,581	5,052	6,934
Total (£M)	17,809	20,498	21,454	28,744

(Source: Baxter et al. 2011)

Indicative figures for crude oil production from hydrocarbon fields which lie within the SORER in 2009 (61,341,301 tonnes) and 2010 (57,895,697 tonnes) were calculated using offshore crude oil production data from the DECC website ^[15] . Estimates of the tonnage of crude oil and produced in each SORER is provided in the Regional overviews.

It was not possible to estimate dry gas or NGL production for 2009 and 2010 as production is not allocated to individual hydrocarbon fields (Clive Evans, DECC, pers. comm.).

2.9.3.2 Economic value and employment

The Oil and Gas industry is the principal source of fuel and power for Scotland, meeting more than 58% of the primary energy need in Scotland in 2008 (Baxter et al, 2011). The sector is the largest industrial contributor to the UK's GVA; the GVA of the upstream Oil and Gas sector (i.e. not including the value added by the supply chain) in the UK in 2010 was estimated at £32 billion. In 2010, supply chain exports were in the range of £5-6 billion (Oil and Gas UK, 2011). Information on the disaggregation of this economic value in 2010 to the Oil and Gas produced from the SORER was not available. However, information on the total revenue from oil, natural gas liquids ( NGL) and are shown in Table 22. The table shows that the total revenue from oil, NGL and gas has progressively increased between 2005 and 2008.

The industry is a major employer. It was estimated that in 2010, the Oil and Gas industry provided employment for about 440,000 people across the UK, these comprised of 32,000 being directly employed by Oil and Gas companies and major contractors. Exploration and extraction of oils and gas from the UKCS accounted for the majority of these jobs, providing around 340,000 jobs in 2010, plus 207,000 employed in the wider supply chain and 100,000 in jobs induced by the economic activities of employees. An additional 100,000 jobs were estimated to be supported by the Oil and Gas supply chain's growing export business, bringing the total employment provided by the sector to about 440,000 jobs in 2010 (Oil and Gas UK, 2011). About 45% of the 340,000 UKCS related jobs (i.e. about 153,000) are located in Scotland not only in major cities such as Aberdeen, but across the whole of Scotland including the remoter areas of the country (Oil and Gas UK, 2011).

Further information on employment within this sector is provided by the ONS ABI and is shown in Table 22. These figures are substantially lower than the employment figures provided by Oil and Gas UK (2011), likely due to differences in data sources (see ABPmer, and RPA 2012).

Table 22. ABI employment figures for oil and gas related activities in Scotland

SIC, 2007	Full-time Employees		Part-time Employees
	2009	2010	2009	2010
Extraction of crude petroleum ( SIC 06100)	7278	7425	198	211
Extraction of natural gas ( SIC 06200)	282	315	16	15
Construction of utility projects for fluids ( SIC 42210)	204	138	5	6
Support activities for petroleum and natural gas extraction ( SIC 09100)	17306	18478	662	336
Transport via pipeline ( SIC 49500)	32	37	1	6

(Source: ONS, 2011)

2.9.3.3 Historical trend

The UKCS is a mature Oil and Gas province having produced a cumulative 26 billion barrels of oil and over 14 billion barrel of oil equivalents ( boe) of gas during its lifetime. Total production (i.e. Oil and Gas combined) and oil production reached their maximum in 1999 while gas production plansd in 2000. Since 1999, total production has declined on average by 6.2% per year, oil production has declined by 6.6% per year and gas by 8.6% per year (Oil and Gas UK, 2011).

2.9.3.4 Future trends

Information on future trends relates to the UK and disaggregation of this data to regional (Scottish) level is not possible. Any information relating to fields under development and significant discoveries are discussed further in the regional reviews.

It has been estimated that in 2020, 70% of primary energy in the UK is still expected to come from Oil and Gas, even if the target of meeting 15% of UK total energy use from renewable sources is met (this target is 20% in Scotland). The UKCS has the potential to satisfy about 60% of the UK's Oil and Gas demand in 2020, if the current rate of investment is sustained (Oil and Gas UK, 2011). However, the amount of Oil and Gas imported into the UK is also likely to increase. By 2015, around 25% of the UK's annual gas demand is likely to be met by imports (increasing from 20% in 2008). Given the prediction for increasing dependence on imported gas, subsea gas storage facilities and associated pipeline are also likely to increase (Saunders et al, 2011).

Over 40 billion boe have been recovered so far from the UKCS, and a further overall recovery of 14 to 24 billion boe is forecast (Oil and Gas UK, 2011). These are mainly in discoveries awaiting development, areas under current licence or regions where oil can be expected to be found but has not yet been explored (Baxter et al, 2011). Based on the average price of Oil and Gas forecast by the Energy Information Administration between 2009 and 2030, the wholesale gross value of these remaining reserves may be between £650 billion to £1.1 trillion (Baxter et al, 2011). A significant area of unexploited gas reserves lies to the West of Shetland and a new gas export pipeline from this area is currently being built to support output from the Laggan (about 125 km West of Shetland) and Tormore (about 15 km further South West) fields, scheduled to start production in 2014 (Baxter et al, 2011).

Around 500 individual structures (including p.a.forms and tie backs) will be decommissioned over the next three decades (Saunders et al, 2011). However, depleted Oil and Gas fields, and Oil and Gas infrastructure, may potentially be used in the emerging CCS sector (see Section 2.4).

2.10 Ports and Harbours

2.10.1 Definition of Sector/Activity

Ports provide the modal interchange points by which goods and people are transported from land to sea. Harbours are by definition, safe havens for vessels to reside and are often commensurate with ports areas. Within Scottish waters, the ports and harbours sector supports the largest fishing industry in the UK, provides facilities for a significant offshore Oil and Gas industry, as well as maintaining ferry links to island communities and providing the recreational sector with support services. Section 2.10 addresses Ports and Harbours specifically; however the interconnection to other sectors should be noted.

2.10.2 Description of Information Sources

A range of information has been accessed to inform this baseline, including published reports, spatial data layers and other specific information provided through stakeholder engagement ( Table 23).

Table 23. Information sources for ports and harbours baseline

Scale	Information Available	Date	Source
UK	Employment and GVA multipliers for ports (all UK)	2009	Oxford Economics, March 2009: "The Economic Contribution of Ports to the UK Economy"
Scotland	Potential future port developments	2009	National Planning Framework for Scotland (Scottish Government, 2009b).
UK	Marine Traffic, passenger numbers and cargo volume	2000-2010	Department for Transport "Transport Statistics" http://www.dft.gov.uk/statistics/series/ports/
UK	Port and harbour locations, port types, port ownership, contact details	Current	Ports and Harbours of the UK, 2011. Website: http://www.ports.org.uk/
UK	Ports and Harbours contribution to Employment and GDP (all UK)	May 2011	Oxford Economics, 2011. 'The economic impact of the UK Ports Industry' http://www.maritimeuk.org/key-statistics/
UK	Business Register and Employment Survey (2008 to 2010).	2011	Office for National Statistics - ONS, 2011. http://www.nomisweb.co.uk
Scotland (including Orkney, Shetland and mainland)	Maritime transport statistics and overview, generalised information on Scottish Ports.	2009-2010	Baxter et al , 2011 The Scottish Government, 2011 'Scotland's Marine Atlas - Information for the National Marine Plan', March 2011
Scotland	Commercial listings of ports in Scotland, service providers, contact details, description of services and current development p.a.s.	Current to 2009	Port of Scotland, 2010 - annual publication (current issue print date 2009)
Scotland	Recent trends	To 2008	British Ports Association, 2008

2.10.2.1 Data limitations

The most recent evaluation of the economic contribution of Ports and Harbour to the economy is presented within the Oxford Economics publication (May 2011) 'The economic impact of the UK Ports Industry'. Unfortunately, this is not disaggregated to the constituent countries making up the UK, hence it is not possible to provide representative data for Scotland.

2.10.3 National Overview of Current Activity

2.10.3.1 Location and intensity of current activities

There are three types of port ownership in Scotland; Trust, Municipal and Private. All ports operate on a commercial basis, independently from Government. Duties and responsibilities are conferred by legislation tailored to each Port, with port operations administered by Statutory Harbour Authorities ( SHA). There are 15 Scottish ports are classified by the Department for Transport ( DfT) under the EC Maritime Statistics Directive as a major port, generally because they handled at least 1 million tonnes of cargo per year, see Figure 17. These are namely:

• Aberdeen;
• Ayr;
• Cairnryan;
• Clyde (Ports Group);
• Cromarty Firth;
• Forth (Ports Group);
• Glensanda;
• Inverness;
• Lerwick;
• Montrose;
• Orkney;
• Perth;
• Peterhead;
• Stranraer; and
• Sullom Voe.

There are around 270 ports and harbours in Scottish waters, ranging from very small piers and landing stages, to those with major facilities. They include:

• Large Oil and Gas terminals, e.g. Hound Point (Firth of Forth), Sullom Voe (Shetland), Flotta (Scapa Flow, Orkney);
• Large quarry product port - Glensanda;
• Large fishing ports, e.g. Peterhead, Fraserburgh;
• Smaller fishing ports, e.g. Buckie, Mallaig;
• Oil supply ports, e.g. Aberdeen, Cromarty Firth;
• Multi-purpose ports, e.g. Leith, Clyde;
• Large container ports - Grangemouth;
• Major ferry ports serving Ireland and Europe - Cairnryan, Stranraer and Rosyth - as well as lifeline ferry services within Scotland;
• Marine Works serving as pier heads for ferry services to Scotland's islands and for working boats associated with fish farm installations; and
• Marina facilities, e.g. Fairlie, Craobh Haven, Port Edgar.

2.10.3.2 Economic value and employment

The ABI figures for GVA and numbers of jobs at 2009 prices, for sea and coastal water transport and supporting activities was £423M and 4,700 respectively (Baxter et al, 2011).

Cargo and passenger figures are published each year in the Scottish Transport Statistics and the Department for Transport Maritime Statistics. In 2009, 85.5 million tonnes of cargo was handled by all Scottish Ports and 10.5 million passengers were carried by ferries, with 15,222 vessels arriving at Scottish Ports during the same period. Over 67% of Scotland's total exports go out via Scottish ports, equating to 74 million tonnes each year ( BPA, 2008).

Information presented in the ONS report identifies that in 2009 circa 11,000 jobs, and in 2010 circa 10,000 jobs were directly related to the ports and harbours sector ( ONS, 2011). The potential additional knock-on employment of up to 21,000 is a result of indirect and induced expenditure effects through the supply chain. These figures exclude employment generated by the fishing and offshore Oil and Gas sectors which represent a very significant contribution to the Scottish economy ( BPA, 2008).

Strongly related to the ports and harbours of Scotland is the shipbuilding industry which, in 2007, was worth £475m GVA with an estimated 5,800 jobs associated with building and repairing of vessels (Baxter et al, 2011). Scotland's shipbuilding sector is concentrated primarily on the manufacture and support of naval ships and specialist, more complex vessels for niche markets. Overall there are some 100 Scottish companies engaged in shi p.a.d boat building, with over 1,500 companies in the supply chain. It should be noted that almost 90 per cent of these 100 businesses were small firms with less than 25 employees ( BPA, 2008).

The Oil and Gas industry is a significant economic contributor to Scottish Ports. It is estimated that Oil and Gas production in the UK currently supports about 207,000 jobs in the supply chain, 40 per cent of which are in Scotland. Using turnover figures relating to exports, it is estimated that direct export activity from the supply chain could be supporting a further 100,000 UK jobs. Scotland is also an important UK and Euro p.a. cruise destination and conservative estimates suggest that the cruise industry supports more than 800 employees, generating £23m GVA to the Scottish economy each year ( BPA, 2008).

Of all the activities which take plans at ports and harbours in Scotland, fishing is the most common and has therefore been considered under its own heading namely the commercial fishing sections of this report.

Ferry traffic has historically been an important aspect of Scottish port activity, this includes International, National and local services ( BPA, 2008).

Smaller scale local ferry services, mainly between the Scottish mainland and outlying islands provide an important lifeline for residents. This service also opens a gateway for tourists to visit areas that might be otherwise inaccessible by car or train. Examples of this type of link include services provided by Caledonian MacBrayne, Orkney Ferries Ltd, Northlink Ferries and Shetland Islands Council. As an example, Northlink Ferries services between Aberdeen and Lerwick and Kirkwall carry circa 140,000 passengers each year. This gives considerable economic and social benefits to both the port and harbour operators as well as the surrounding area, allowing for the movement of commercial traffic, local passenger traffic and growing numbers of tourists and visitors ( BPA, 2008).

Leisure moorings remain an important business income for many Scottish ports and help to support many businesses situated around harbours and marinas. In 2006/07 the Scottish recreational boating industry had an estimated turnover of £99m. This represented a contribution to the economy of £35.3m. Studies have illustrated that each job in the core coastal marina sector supports a further 12 jobs in the local economy as a result of visitor and employee expenditures in the wider economy (Source: 'Trends, developments and environment', British Marine Federation, at Coastal Futures, 2008 conference 23rd January 2008, SOAS London). Many ports are examining the possibility of expanding so investment is generally concentrated on enhancing and refurbishing existing facilities ( BPA, 2008).

2.10.3.3 Historic trends

Scottish ports handle trade across a wide range of goods and services and support employment in national, local and regional economies. According to DfT figures ports in Scotland handled 17% of all traffic entering and leaving the UK in 2006. Although, the total amount of freight exported from Scottish Ports has reduced over the last decade, the amount imported has gradually increased ( BPA, 2008). Table 24 shows the historic Tonnages, both import and export, handled by all Scottish Ports. This shows a p.a. of tonnage in the year 2000 of around 130,000 tonnes. The tonnage handled in 2008 has returned to the same value as that of 1991 at around 96,000 tonnes, which is a reduction of 26% on the p.a. seen in the year 2000.

Table 24. Total Scottish port tonnages 1990 to 2008

Year	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994
Import	18,441	18,186	14,928	14,043	15,415
Export	79,135	77,880	83,659	87,169	108,390
Total	97,576	96,065	98,586	101,212	123,806
Year	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999
Import	15,206	16,251	16,440	23,115	26,117
Export	111,641	109,003	98,629	101,598	103,983
Total	126,847	125,254	115,069	124,713	130,100
Year	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004
Import	30,533	33,741	32,717	30,056	33,394
Export	99,979	90,079	89,439	80,479	77,051
Total	130,512	123,820	122,156	110,535	110,444
Year	2005	2006	2007	2008	Average
Import	35,915	34,835	31,067	28,147	24,660
Export	72,975	66,752	70,885	68,198	88,259
Total	108,890	101,587	101,952	96,346	112,919

Values are in '000 Tonnes

(Source: DfT, 2010)

2.10.3.4 Future trends

The UK Government policy for ports was set out in the Interim Report of the ports policy review published in 2007 ( DfT, 2007). This report stated that the Government sought to 'encourage sustainable port development to cater for long-term forecast growth in volumes of imports and exports by sea with a competitive and efficient port industry capable of meeting the needs of importers and exporters cost effectively and in a timely manner'. This provides confirmation that the ports industry is supported by Government policy into the future, providing assurance of sustained development.

Ports policy was reviewed in 2006 by the Scottish Government, this concluded that the sector benefits substantially from its independence and that the Scottish Government supported its mixed ownership structure, (i.e. Trust, Municipal and Private). Investment decisions are based on market needs rather than through central direction. The challenge for future development of this sector is based on world trade patterns and the economic climate ( BPA, 2008).

The Scottish Government is formulating a National Planning Framework. This for the first time identifies important Scottish 'National Development' infrastructure projects that will be rolled out up to 2030. The Scottish Government has said that its economic strategy requires a planning framework that supports sustainable economic growth across Scotland. Of the nine proposed National Developments three are large projects specifically related to the ports industry ( BPA, 2008).

Scotland's National Transport Policy states that "An effective road and rail infrastructure to support national and international connections by sea is essential to ensure that the critical role of ports in supporting and contributing to Scotland's business and economic health is fully realised "Future areas of possible development are international transhipment, feeder services and short sea shipping". Also, "We will continue to support UK and international ferry routes including routes to Northern Ireland, Ireland, mainland Europe and beyond" (Scottish Executive, 2006b).

The importance of the Oil and Gas industry to the Ports industry within Scotland, specifically ports on the East Coast, Shetland and Orkney Isles, provide a close tie between these two sectors. Although the North Sea fields are considered to be 'mature' having produced 36 billion boe, estimates suggest that there may be another 25 million boe available. Operators who specialise in extracting Oil and Gas from the more mature fields have purchased several of these assets from the oil majors. This has seen higher investment levels for some older fields with increased production being achieved ( BPA, 2008). The long term stability of extraction levels past 2020 is uncertain. However, the centre of excellence and expertise established in North East Ports has generated global trade in Oil and Gas equipment manufactured or services. Aberdeen Harbour (for example) already has three scheduled services to West African Oil and Gas producing countries and regularly handles other energy related cargoes to and from many other worldwide destinations ( BPA, 2008).

The increase in offshore renewable activities provides a potential source of income for ports. This is both as a base for industrial processes including manufacture of offshore renewable devices, and as a service provider for the craft needed to install and maintain offshore renewable sites during the construction and operation. Market potential is driven by the location of offshore renewable developments, and the accessibility of ports for the types of craft involved in installation and maintenance activities.

The future use, growth and development of Ports are intrinsically linked to world trade patterns and the economic climate, and are reactive to changing economic circumstances. Government policy continues to support the mixed ownership structure already established, with Government backing for National Infrastructure projects, all of which provides incentives to develop Port facilities. Many Ports in Scotland have identified opportunities around the developing marine renewables industry, which has the potential to change the landscape of Port services, size and increase marine traffic volumes in response to renewable energy site locations

2.11 Power Interconnectors

2.11.1 Definition of Sector/Activity

This sector is concerned with the transmission of power through submarine cables, including international, national and inter-island links. This assessment excludes power cables to/from individual developments (e.g. power supplies to Oil and Gas installations, export cables from OWFs).

2.11.2 Description of Information Sources

The data available on submarine cables, and in-particular power cables, is limited. Information which has been accessed to inform this baseline includes published reports, spatial data layers and other specific information provided through stakeholder engagement ( Table 25).

Table 25. Information sources for power interconnectors baseline

Scale	Information Available	Date	Source
Scotland	All pipelines and cables	Current	SeaZone Solutions Ltd
Scotland	Power cables (submarine electricity cables)	Current	Baxter et al, 2011
Scotland	Potential future subsea cable developments / reinforcements	2009	National Planning Framework for Scotland Annex National development 11 (Scottish Government, 2009b)
UK and Scotland	Interconnector projects in the public domain	2011	Saunders et al, 2011; Refabrica website: www.refabrica.com/einter/?page_id=157

2.11.2.1 Data limitations

Although the location of power cables is known, information on installation and use is hard to come by. In addition, it is difficult to calculate an economic value for a cable as there is no agreed methodology available. The approaches used at present will either result in a under or over estimation of the actual value of the cables ( ABPmer and RPA, 2011).

2.11.3 National Overview of Current Activity

2.11.3.1 Location and intensity of activity

There are 900 km of submarine power cables in Scottish waters (Baxter et al, 2011) predominately created to connect island communities to the mainland national grid infrastructure ( UKMMAS, 2010). This is reflected in Figure 18 which shows subsea grid infrastructure connections in inshore waters between areas of mainland Scotland and between the mainland and islands in all SORERs except the North East SORER. Note, subsea power cables to/from developments (e.g. Oil and Gas p.a.forms) are not shown in Figure 18a.

2.11.3.2 Economic value and employment

There is no agreed methodology for calculating the economic value of subsea power cables. In the absence of information on economic value, the capacity of interconnector cables may be used as an indicator of both value and activity ( UKMMAS, 2010). The Moyle (Scotland-Northern Ireland) interconnector, linking Auchencrosh in Ayrshire to Islanmagee, County Antrim is the only international marine power interconnector originating in the West SORER. There is little information on the number of people directly employed within this sector.

2.11.3.3 Historic trends

The only international interconnector in the study area is the Moyle Interconnector between Scotland and Northern Ireland with a capacity of 400Mw which went into commercial operation in early 2002.

2.11.3.4 Future trends

Future increases in offshore marine renewables and the need to bring power onshore will likely drive the development of offshore grid network / interconnectors.

UKMMAS (2010) reported that over the period 2007-12 the Office of the Gas and Electricity Markets ( Ofgem) provided for capital investment of up to £4.3 billion in the electricity transmission network, an increase of 160% over the previous 5-year price control period, with much of this investment p.a.ned for Scotland.

The Scottish National Planning Framework 2 (Scottish Government, 2009b) identifies 'electricity grid reinforcements' as one of the fourteen national developments essential to the delivery of the spatial strategy set out in the second National Planning Framework. The strategic grid reinforcements are essential to provide the transmission capacity necessary to realise the potential of Scotland's renewable energy sources, maintain long-term security of electricity supply and support sustainable economic development. This development would occur throughout Scotland, from the English border to the Shetland Islands and, in relation to marine power interconnectors, would include:

• Reinforcement of the sub-sea cable link between Orkney and the Scottish mainland; and
• New sub-sea cable links for the Outer Hebrides and the Shetland Islands.

In addition, there are a number of proposed marine power interconnector developments in the UK at various stages of maturity in the planning process. Those that are relevant to Scotland are shown in Table 26 and Figure 18b. If these developments proceed, they would significantly increase the length and capacity of interconnector and offshore grid cables compared to the current baseline. However, the nature and form of the overall development of the offshore grid remains uncertain particularly in the long-term (Saunders et al, 2011).

Table 26. Proposed marine power cable developments in the UK relevant to Scotland

Connection	Indicative Length ( km)	Capacity (MW)	Comment
UK- Norway 'North Connect'	Information not found	1200-2000	Co-operation agreement signed in February 2011. Expected to be operational before 2020 (Saunders et al, 2011).
Scotland - England 'Western HVDC Link'	370	2000	Preferred Option (Connah's Quay to Hunterston) consultation 2011. Expected to be operational in 2015. Estimated cost £1385 million (Electricity Networks Strategy Group, 2009).
Shetland Orkney and East Coast of England 'East Coast Transmission Network'	>2000	1000 MW network	Feasibility study undertaken in 2008; vision for 2020 (Saunders et al, 2011).
East coast of England-Scotland Eastern HDVC Link	Information not found	1800	Peterhead to Hawthorne Pit. Target completion date 2018. Estimated cost £700million (Electricity Networks Strategy Group, 2009).

(Source: Saunders et al, 2011; Refabrica website: www.refabrica.com/einter/?page_id=157)

2.12 Recreational Boating

2.12.1 Definition of Sector/Activity

For the purpose of this study, recreational boating is considered to include recreational activities undertaken in medium and large sailing vessels, yachts, powerboats and motorboats. Information on small sailing boat activity such as dinghies (usually taken out of water at end of use) and other types of water sports can be seen in Section 18. It is possible that general tourism values may overlap with values specifically associated with recreational activities. General tourism is described in other sections of this report as the interactions and issues in relation to marine renewable developments are often distinctly different. There is some possibility of a degree of double counting using this approach but not to the extent that it materially affects the results of the study, i.e. a variety of studies focusing specifically on recreation provide a good understanding on current value, distribution and intensity of the sector in the SORERs.

2.12.2 Description of Information Sources

A variety of different information sources has been reviewed to inform this baseline, including published reports and papers, spatial layers and information provided through stakeholder engagement ( Table 27).

Table 27. Data sources used in the recreational boating baseline

Scale	Information Available	Date	Source
Scotland	Statistics on sailing tourism	No date	Tourism Resources Company et al (2010)
All Regions	Number of resident home berths Number of visiting berths Proportion of total Scotland berths Demand for home berths (occupancy) Visiting craft demand for berths Average annual spend per boat (high, medium and low) Direct expenditure Multipliers (from Scottish Tourism Multiplier Study) Visiting boat nights Visiting boat expenditure Employment Gross Value Added	No date	Tourism Resources Company et al (2010)
Scotland	Sailing area value and berth numbers	No date	Baxter et al (2011)
Scotland	RYA cruising routes and sailing areas	No date	Baxter et al (2011)

2.12.2.1 Data limitations

The published information on cruising and sailing routes is indicative and there is a lack of reliable data on the actual routes taken by recreational vessels. There is also a lack of information on vessel numbers passing along particular routes. Information on the economic value of recreational boating is only available at a regional scale. There is limited information on historical trends in activity and the level of future activity is uncertain, as it is largely dependent on the overall performance of the national economy.

2.12.3 National Overview of Current Activity

2.12.3.1 Location and intensity of activity

The UK Atlas of Recreational Boating ( RYA, 2005) and data from the Royal Yachting Association ( RYA) indicates that recreational boating within Scotland is concentrated in the Clyde and along the West Coast, the Moray Firth, Solway Firth and the Firths of Tay and Forth which are the traditional cruising grounds for recreational sailors and power boaters. However, recent developments along the East Coast, and within the Orkney and Shetland Isles have increased the potential for cruising routes between the Caledonian Canal and the Shetlands with well plansd facilities and stopping points en route. The main cruising routes and areas of greatest sailing and racing use are described in further detail for each region below ^[16] . The RYA's Position Statement on offshore energy developments ( RYA, 2009), which encompasses the whole of the UK, notes that most of the general day sailing and racing areas are close to the shore, see Figure 19.

Indicative estimates of the number of people participating in sailing and power/motor boating activities in Scotland can be taken from the British Marine Federation ( BMF) Water sports and Leisure Participation Survey 2009 ( BMF et al., 2009). This report estimated that in 2009, 57,047 people participated in sai lboat activities and/or yacht cruising, 12,486 participated in sai lboat and/or yacht racing and that 49,015 engaged in motor boating/ cruising or canal boating in the Border and Scotland ITV regions ^[17] .

2.12.3.2 Economic value and employment

The Scottish Coast, and particularly the West coast, is identified as being one of the World's premier destinations for sailing. Recreational boating and marine and sailing tourism contribute about £300 million to the Scottish economy ^[18] . Overall, the sector is expected to grow in the long term ( UKMMAS, 2010).

An assessment of the current economic impact of sailing in Scotland was undertaken by Scottish Enterprise (2010) and a summary is shown below in Table 28. The study indicated that there is a total berthing/mooring capacity available across Scotland for 12,500 vessels. The study stated that the value of the market could increase from its current value of £101 million to £145 million after 10 years. The same report also provided a breakdown of the economic value of sailing and the number of berths in different regions of Scotland and these results are described in each of the relevant regional sections below.

Table 28. Economic impact of sailing in Scotland

Activity	Total Activity (by Scottish and Non-Scottish Boat Owners)	Tourist Activity (by Non-Scottish Boat Owners Only)
Expenditure	£101.3million	£27.0 million
Employment ( FTEs)	2,732	724
GVA	£53.0million	£14.0million

(Source: Scottish Enterprise, 2010)

In Scotland, the BMF estimates that in 2009/10 the total turnover of the leisure, super yacht and small commercial marine industry was £92.7million ( BMF, 2010). Of this, the 'value added contribution' which is the principal measure of national economic benefit was £29.2million. This study focuses more on business values (such as boat building, specialised equipment manufacture, sales, training, consumer services, insurance services and finance) then the Scottish Enterprise (2010) study which is focused much more on expenditure related values of boat owners and visiting tourists. The industry in Scotland supported around 1,579 FTE jobs. It should be noted that a proportion of this revenue comes from inland activities. UKMMAS (2010) estimated that 62% of the total value in 2006/07 related to the marine environment. Using the same proportion, the indicative total value related to the marine environment in 2009/10 was £57.5million. No national employment figures derived from the Business Register and Employment Survey (using UK SIC codes) have been included for activities relating to recreational boating. This is because the codes are for the entire sports sector and don't permit disaggregation to a useful level.

2.12.3.3 Historical trends

Over the past 15 years, prior to the recent recession, the Scottish sailing tourism sector has grown rapidly. New marinas and expansions of existing facilities have been developed and absorbed by the market with marinas and other berthing sources filled u p.a.d boat ownership in the UK and overseas growing, generating increasing economic activity (Scottish Enterprise, 2010).

In the UK there is no official, definitive, boat ownership data collated by any organisation. Table 29 presents an estimate of the annual growth in marina operations, as compiled and reported by the British Marine Federation ( BMF) from a number of anonymous sources.

Table 29. Estimate of annual compound growth in 'core' marina operations

Area	Growth over 10 Year Timeframe(2000 - 2009)	Growth over 5 Year Timeframe(2004 - 2009)
Clyde	6.1%	7.6%
West	7.0%	5.6%
North & East (including PFOW area)	4.7%	7.0%

(Source: Scottish Enterprise, 2010)

2.12.3.4 Future trends

UKMMAS (2010) reports that whilst marine recreation has experienced recent growth, future growth and stability of the sector is dependant upon the general health of the UK economy. A strong economy results in consumers having more disposable income to spend on leisure and recreation activities. As a result of the recent global economic downturn, it is likely there will be some short-term decreases in participation in recreational activities. However, with infrastructure and technology in plans to support the sector, it is expected to continue to grow over the long term.

Scotland's Marine Atlas (Baxter et al., 2011) comments that despite the recent downturn in the global economy, and subsequent reduction in disposable incomes, the recreational sector could have the potential to p.a. an increasingly significant role in Scotland's rural economy. This is evidenced by the recent development of marina facilities at Wick, and the Orkney Islands. Combined with active marketing by marina owners, and support from local authorities (such as Orkney Island's Council as seen in recent developments) the potential for future growth is aplansnt.

Climate change may also p.a. a small part in increasing overall participation numbers. As the frequency of months when conditions are more comfortable for tourism in North-West Europe ( MCCIP, 2008) improve, the warmer weather is more likely to attract visitors to coastal locations in Scotland. The net result will be an extension of the tourist season beyond its traditional limits and opening up new destinations. Climate change as a positive influencing factor must be balanced against predictions of increased storminess, and the severity of storms. Provided increased storminess is predominantly in the winter months, this may not be a factor in future recreational boating trends.

The Scottish Enterprise (2010) report concludes that as long as infrastructure (marinas and shore side facilities) continue to attract investment, resident berthing could increase by 3-5% per annum. The growth potential in visitor berthing is projected at up to 5% per annum. Both of these projects bring an associated increase in expenditure into the local economy.

2.13 Shipping

2.13.1 Definition of Sector/Activity

Shipping provides for the transport of freight and passengers both within Scottish waters and internationally. Commercial shipping routes can be split into two distinct types; transiting vessels passing through Scottish Waters and vessels with either their origin or destination port within Scotland. The movement of vessels is monitored and recorded by the Maritime and Coastguard Agency ( MCA) and individual port authorities. Table 30 provides a list of the data sources used.

2.13.2 Description of Information Sources

Table 30. Data sources used in the shipping baseline

Scale	Information Available	Date	Source
Scotland	Number of passengers, cars and commercial vehicles on ferries (graph), Shipping traffic: number of vessels in a given area during 1st week of January 2010 (map), AIS regional maps,	2005-2010	Baxter et al ,2011 The Scottish Government 2011 'Scotland's Marine Atlas - Information for the National Marine Plan', March 2011
Scotland	Scottish Transport Statistics	2009	Scottish Government, 2009a
Scotland	Scottish Transport Statistics	2010	Scottish Government, 2010b
Scotland	DfT Maritime Transport Statistics Compendium	2010	DfT, 2010
Regional	Regional scale AIS density maps	2005-present	Maritime and Coastguard Agency ( MCA) - Direct contact with MCA Office: http://www.dft.gov.uk/mca/mcga07-home/aboutus/contact07/mcga-atoz.htm

2.13.2.1 Data limitations

There are no readily available data sets providing a quantifiable measure of vessels transiting through Scottish waters. The movement of vessels is monitored and recorded by the Maritime and Coastguard Agency ( MCA), Lloyds List Intelligence and other local organisations. Anecdotal information from the MCA suggests that circa 60% of traffic is recorded through routine data collation using the network of Automatic Identification System ( AIS) transceivers. Additionally, data sets are not always comparable as different categorisations are used for ports calls, fishing, recreation and traffic which do not sto p.a. national ports, but is considered as transiting traffic passing through the national boundaries and jurisdictions.

Additionally, AIS data is only provided data for vessels with a gross tonnage ( GT) of 300 or more tonnes (and all passenger ships regardless of size). This leaves a significant proportion of missing vessel tracks which are 'non- AIS' vessels including:

A) Commercial Vessels below 300 GT;

B) Recreational Vessels;

C) Fishing Vessels; and

D) Naval Vessels.

AIS data is a relatively new technology ( circa 2005 onwards) for which long term records are infrequently kept. The most robust data source is the MCA archive of AIS data which is not readily available to third parties outside of Government Organisations.

2.13.3 National Overview of Current Activity

Data from the Department for Transport ( DfT) for 2008 shows that 15,173 vessels arrived at the 16 major Scottish ports, the ship type breakdown is shown in Table 31; the main shipping routes are shown in Figure 20 with the ferry services are shown in Figure 21.

Table 31. Ship type arrivals at 16 major ports

Port	Tankers	RoRo	Container	Other	Total
Aberdeen	420	673	417	39	1,549
Ayr	1	0	220	2	223
Cairnryan	0	2,543	0	0	2,543
Clyde	188	16	585	345	1,134
Cromarty Firth	49	5	111	4	169
Dundee	60	5	189	17	271
Forth	1,892	161	1,188	97	3,338
Glensanda	0	0	47	106	153
Inverness	158	0	109	0	267
Lerwick	72	677	195	19	963
Montrose	11	0	215	7	233
Orkney	100	1,334	126	5	1,565
Perth	0	0	93	0	93
Peterhead	102	15	109	5	231
Stranraer	0	2,174	0	0	2,174
Sullom Voe	263	0	4	0	267
Total					15,173

(Source: DfT, 2010)

2.13.3.1 Location and intensity of current activities

AIS information presented within Scotland's Marine Atlas (Baxter et al, 2011) shows information as a gridded density map, which provides an indication of intensity of sea area use, but not any quantifiable detail necessary to carry out site specific evaluation.

2.13.3.2 Economic value and employment

In 2008, a total of 67.4 Mt of freight was recorded as being lifted by water transport in Scotland. Of this, 23.3 Mt was coastwise traffic to other ports in the United Kingdom (including Scotland), 1.8 Mt of one port traffic to offshore installations, and 42.4 Mt of exports from the major Scottish ports (Baxter et al, 2011).

Oxford Economics (2011) reports for the Chamber of Shipping have estimated that from a turnover of £9.5 billion, the shipping industry contributes about £4.7bn GVA to the UK. The UK Major Ports Group suggests that ports contribute around £7.7bn to UK GDP. Neither source of information presents a breakdown for Scottish Shipping or Ports (Baxter et al, 2011). It can be assumed that shipping transiting through Scottish Waters, but not making port calls provides no economic value to Scotland. Indirect value may be obtained from transitory shipping through jobs related to safety of shipping in Scottish waters and commodity transportation originating in Scotland, but shipped through other UK ports.

In 2009, the number of jobs for sea and coastal water transport supporting activities was estimated at 4,700, the equivalent GVA was £432M. These values cannot be disaggregated to individual sea areas (Baxter et al, 2011). Employment figures from ONS (2011) are given in Table 32 however the SIC codes do not provide a breakdown that directly relates to the shipping industry.

Table 32. Employees in the shipping sector

SIC, 2007	Full-time Employees		Part-time Employees
	2009	2010	2009	2010
Sea and coastal passenger water transport ( SIC 50100)	1,346	1,267	216	245
Sea and coastal freight water transport ( SIC 50200)	612	440	20	64
Renting and leasing of passenger water transport equipment ( SIC 77341)	32	17	1	2
Renting and leasing of freight water transport equipment ( SIC 77342)	115	49	6	7
Total	2,105	1,773	243	318

(Source: ONS, 2011)

2.13.3.3 Historic trends

Trends in shipping volumes are intrinsically linked to cargo volumes passing through ports. Obtaining representative historic information regarding vessels numbers is difficult, AIS information provides a brief snapshot of recent shipping trends, but does not present a suitable history to draw conclusive trends.

If cargo handling volumes for ship borne (waterborne) freight are used as a proxy for shipping numbers, the volume of freight for all categories (coastwise, one port and foreign traffic; both incoming and outgoing) passing through the ports fell by 5.5% in 2008 to 67.4 Mt, this was 23% less than in 1998. In 2008, exports accounted for 44% of the total freight through Scottish ports and domestic traffic (either coastwise or one port) accounted for a quarter. Imports and incoming domestic freight were much lower, together accounting for 27% of the total freight through Scottish ports.

However it must be noted that cargo volumes do not directly relate to shipping numbers as changes in ship size and technology have allowed greater volumes of cargo to be carried by fewer, faster ships. This is most notable in the containerisation market, where upsizing has lead to a reduction of port calls, and a move towards 'hub and spoke' services. The introduction of ever-larger container ships has reduced the number of ports at which these ships can call, providing a notable growth in transhipment to medium and smaller ports. Historically, container port throughput has increased up to three times as fast as GDP. This trend has been affected by the global down-turn, however this correlation between GDP and container port throughput continues, a lbeit at a reducing level.

2.13.3.4 Future trends

Shipping volumes bear a direct relationship to the global economic market. As markets react to the changing financial situation, shipping lines respond with services to move goods and people. The most notable variable to affect the volume and intensity of shipping into the future will be the technology and innovations used to design future shipping. Ship design seeks for bigger, faster and more economic transhipment of goods and people.

The introduction of bigger ships planss expectations that existing ports will increase the depth of water in entrance channels and alongside berths to accommodate changing ship requirements. This implies that investment is necessary in port infrastructure, both in terms of shore side facilities and access to the ports. Channel widths may need to increase to take account of the wider ship beam, which in addition may lead to the requirement for turning circles to be enlarged to take account of greater vessel length. Although all of these pressures have to be taken into account, probably the most significant factor to challenge traditional ports in the context of their ability to accommodate bigger ships is sea access, and in particular vessel draught. New future shipping routes may also lead to shipping increases, especially in respect to the potential for a viable North West passage

The established North Sea and English Channel SOx Emission Control Area (S ECA) provides an ongoing cause for future concern (and possible reduction) in shipping operations. The applicable SOx limit in S ECAs has reduced to 1.00% and will further reduce to 0.10 %, effective from 1 January 2015. Further progressive reductions are p.a.ned including nitrogen oxide ( NOx) emissions with the most stringent controls installed on ships constructed after January 2016 operating in Emission Control Areas. This affects the viability of ships currently operating if their engine type cannot be modified, or the costs of modification cannot be absorbed into operating costs.

In respect of lifeline ferry services, which make u p.a.significant proportion of vessel movements within Scottish waters, the Scottish Government are preparing a long-term ferries strategy to take a view of developments in a range of topics including on what basis fares should be set, what kind of services should be supported with public money and who should be responsible for providing these services. The consultation process began in June 2010 with a draft Ferries Plan being due to be published by the end of 2011. A summary of responses to the consultation is available on the Scottish Government website and these responses will inform the draft Ferries Plan. After publication of the draft Ferries Plan, further consultation will take plans. Timing of the remaining tasks has not yet been determined however the Ferries Review will result in a long-term Plan for ferry services up to 2022 (Baxter et al, 2011).

2.14 Social and Community

2.14.1 Definition of Sector/Activity

Social impacts considers all the social and community activities, as well as current state of the communities within the regions and nationally. This chapter covers population, deprivation, education and skills, businesses, employment, community well-being, health and housing. Recreation is included in the tourism and recreation chapter.

2.14.2 Description of Information Sources

A variety of different information sources has been reviewed to inform this baseline, including published statistics, reports and papers, spatial layers and information provided through stakeholder engagement. Where possible we have used primary data (in particular from the Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics Internet site) as the basis for the baseline social review as this provides data in a format that can be most easily aggregated across the regions ( Table 33).

Table 33. Data sources used in the social and community chapter

Scale	Information Available	Date	Source
Local Authority	Population (2001 census and mid-year estimates)	2001 to 2010	Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics
Datazone	Population (children, working age, pensionable age)	1996 to 2010	Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics
Local Authority	Median gross weekly earnings for full-time employees	2001 to 2010	Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics
Datazone (groups of census output areas)	Index of deprivation (ranks), total also broken down into deprivation by income; employment, health; education, skills and training; housing	2009	Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics
Local Authority	Employment (by industry sector)	2009 to 2010	NOMIS
Scotland	Social economy turnover	2004 to 2009	Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics
Local Authority	Business birth and death rates (including 3 year survival rates)	2002 to 2009	Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics
Local Authority	Self-assessed health rating	1999/00 to 2007/08	Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics
Local Authority	Average level of participation in sport	2007 to 2008	Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics
Scotland	Community well-being (poverty)	1998/99 to 2007/08	Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics
Local Authority	Education level (education to degree level, percentage receiving job-related training, with low of no qualifications)	2004 to 2010	Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics
Local Authority	Percentage of population within 30 minutes drive time of a college of further of higher education	2001	Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics (although these are older data, they are the most reliable data found)
Local Authority	Stock of household spaces	2001	Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics (although these are older data, they are the most reliable data found)
Local Authority	House sale prices	1993 to 2010	Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics
Scotland	House price to average earnings ratio	1990 to 2009	House of Commons (2010)
Local Authority	Drive time for access to services	2003	Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics
Local Authority	Percentage of adults who rate their neighbourhood as a very good plans to live	1999/00 to 2007/08	Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics
Local Authority	Energy consumption	2005 to 2009	Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics
Scotland	The Scottish Health Survey	1995-2010	Scottish National Statistics
Scotland	Scottish House Condition Survey, Key Findings 2010	2002-2010 (varies by type of statistic)	Scottish National Statistics
Local Authority	Housing Statistics for Scotland	1997-2011	Scottish National Statistics
Scotland	Summary Statistics for Schools in Scotland	2008-2011	Scottish National Statistics
Scotland	Scottish Community Empowerment Action Plan	2009	Scottish Government & COSLA
Scotland	Crofting income	2007	Hilliam (2007)
Scotland	Crofting employment	2007-2010	Scottish Government (2010)
Scotland	Sustainable Rural Communities in Crofting Areas	2007	Bryden (2007)
Scotland	Community of Inquiry on Crofting	2008	RR Donnelly (2008)
Scotland	The Contribution of Crofting	2007	Fiona & Mackenzie (2007)

2.14.2.1 Data limitations

Key data limitations are described alongside the analysis of the data, below. There is a wealth of data available through the Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics site and associated reports that could be used to supplement the baseline descriptions included here. In addition, much of the data can be broken down into very detailed datazone level (where there are 6,505 data areas covering Scotland). As a result, this assessment is bottom-u p.a.d the key data limitations lie with (i) mapping the datazones and local authority areas onto the regions and (ii) comparing across datasets where the dates when data were collected may vary or the methods used to combine and aggregate data may be slightly different from one year or one dataset to another. To minimise the effect of these limitations, the key underlying dataset of population is reported nationally and regionally.

2.14.3 National Overview of Current Activity

2.14.3.1 Demographics

Image 7 shows the structure of the population in 5 year age bands. The Image shows that the population is at its largest in the 35-39 age range, closely followed by the 30-34 and 40-44 age ranges. The average age across the whole population is 38 years old. The total population is 5.06 million. This is an important base number when considering use of data in other sub-sections of the social and community chapter.

Image 7. National Age Range

The total population within each region is important when it comes to considering some of the data provided below. Table 34 provides the total population within each Region. The table shows that there are significant differences between the populations of the regions (based on aggregation across Local Authority areas ^[19] ).

Table 34. Total population within each region (2001 census)

Overall	N	NE	E	SW	W	NW
Population	41,000	630,000	2,440,000	148,000	1,670,000	131,000

(Source: based on 2001 census data)

Image 8 shows the change in the percentage of working age population, nationally and in each region. The large differences between the populations in each region mean that the national average is much closer to the pattern for East and West Regions. The overall national change is a 3.7% increase in working age population between 1996 and 2010; this is much greater than the change shown in Image 8 due to an increase in the overall working age population from 3.15 million in 1997 to 3.27 million in 2010.

Image 8. Change in Proportion of Working Age Population

(Source: Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics)

Image 9 presents the change that is seen across each region when the underlying population change is taken into account. It shows that the working age populations have declined in the North (-3.2%), South West (-4.9%) and North West (-3.2%) between 1996 and 2010. There are significant increases in the North East (+3.9%) and East (+5.5%), and a small increase in the West (+0.6%) over the same period.

Image 9. Change in Proportion of Working Age Population Across the SORERs

(Source: based on Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics)

Reductions in the working age population have not always been compensated for by increases in the percentage of people of pensionable age. Image 10 shows the change between 1996 and 2010 of children, people of pensionable age and the total population. The image shows that the total population increased in the North East (+4.4%), the East (+4.2%) and nationally (+2.6%), while there were decreases in population overall in the North (-1.0%), South West (-1.0%), West (-1.4%) and North West (-2.7%), there was an increase in people of pensionable age in every region. Table 35 summarises the statistics used as the basis for Image 10 .

Image 10. Change in Proportion of Total Population, Children and People of Pensionable Age

(Source: based on Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics)

Table 35. Total population within each region, broken down by age (2001 census)

Change 1996 -2010	Nationally	N	NE	E	SW	W	NW
Children	-10.5%	-18.5%	-8.9%	-8.6%	-16.2%	-14.4%	-21.5%
Pensionable Age	13.1%	29.7%	22.4%	13.9%	22.6%	5.8%	17.0%
Working Age	3.7%	-3.2%	3.9%	5.5%	-4.9%	0.6%	-3.2%
Total	2.6%	-1.0%	4.4%	4.2%	-1.0%	-1.4%	-2.7%

(Source: based on Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics, 2011)

2.14.3.2 Income and employment

Median gross weekly earnings for full-time employees are shown in Image 11 . The median wage across all full-time workers in 2010 was £478.39. The Figure shows that gross weekly earnings increased by almost £137 (40%) between 2001 and 2010, an average increase of 4% per year (compared with average UK inflation of 3.1% per year). The increase is greater for full-time female workers (48%) than for full-time male workers (36%). However, the overall pay gap has not changed significantly with female full-time workers earning £57.99 less than male full-time works in 2001 and £58.27 less in 2010. These figures do not take account of increases in the cost of living. With average UK Inflation at 3.1% per year between 2001 and 2011, the increase adjusted for inflation reduces to 3.3% (with mean gross weekly earnings adjusted for inflation from 2001 to 2011 being £463.27 ^[20] ).

Image 11. Median Gross Weekly Earnings (Scotland)

(Source: Scottish National Statistics, 2011)

Image 12 shows the change in median gross weekly earnings for all full-time employees between 2002 and 2010. The Image shows that the average national increase has fluctuated between a high of 5.5% (2001 to 2002) and a low of 1.5% (2008 to 2009). ). This compares with inflation of 1.6% (2001 and 2002) and -0.5% (2008 and 2009). The figure also shows the greater variation across the regions, especially for the North. Median weekly earnings in the North have seen significant increase in 2001-2002 (22.5%), 2004-2005 (16.6%), 2006-2007 (16.2%) and 2007-2008 (21.3%). There have also been significant decreases, presumably linked to the end of the higher paying opportunities. These occurred in 2005-2006 (-17.2%), and 2008-2009 (-13.0%). Most of the other regions show a general increase in income over time, with the exception of 2003-2004 and 2004-2005. Here, income declined in the South West and North West (2003-2004 and 2004-2005) and in the North (2003-2004). The reductions were much smaller than seen at other times in the North, but did reach 2.9% (South West), 3.0% (North West) and 5.1% (North) in 2003-2004.

Image 12. Change in Median Gross Weekly Earnings 2001-2010

(Source: Scottish National Statistics, 2011)

Image 13 shows the variation in median gross weekly earnings across the regions. The Image shows that there is considerable variation across the regions, and over time. The region with the highest gross weekly earnings in 2010 is the North, at £502.20 (£23.81or 5% more than the national average). The lowest gross weekly earnings are in the South West (£35.29 or 7.4% below the national average). Also below the national average are the East (-£10.39 or -2.2%) and North West (-£19.74 or -4.1%). The West is closest to the national average (£9.20, or 1.9% above), while the North East is £15.91 higher (3.3%). Investment into the areas with lower gross weekly incomes could help to reduce differences between regions.

Image 13. Median Gross Weekly Earnings (by Region)

(Source: Scottish National Statistics, 2011)

Image 14 shows the difference between median gross weekly earning for male and female full-time workers in 2010 from the regional average. The Image highlights that the greatest difference for male full-time workers in the North, where they earn £96.80 more than the regional average, while females earn, on average, £86.40 less. The biggest difference for female workers is in the North East, where they earn £94.55 less. Since the difference for male workers is £50.17, there must be considerably more male than female full-time workers in the North East. Although the South West has the lowest median gross weekly income, the difference between income for males and females is lower than for any other region (with females earning £35.20 less than the regional average and males £30.70 more).

Image 14. Difference in Median Gross Weekly Earnings for Male and Female Full-Time Workers (by Region)

(Source: Scottish National Statistics)

North and North West Regions have 0% of datazones that are in the 10% most deprived for any of the individual indicators (see Section 2.14.3.4 on equality for discussion on overall deprivation ranks) see Table 36. North East Region has 3% for income, and 2% for employment (compared with 3% overall). East Region has 10% of datazones that are in the most deprived decile for income, 10% for employment (compared with 10% overall). In the South West Region, there is a greater proportion of datazones that are in the 10% most deprived due to income (3%), compared with 2% overall. West Region has a lower level of datazones in the 10% most deprived for employment (14% compared with 15% overall) see Table 37. The proportion is the same for income as for overall income (15%). Investment into areas that currently have higher levels of deprivation, such as the East and West regions could have benefits in terms of reducing deprivation.

Table 36. Rank of deprivation for income

Overall	N	NE	E	SW	W	NW
Min (most deprived)	1,023	44	2	100	1	1,711
Max (most affluent)	6,464	6,504	6,504	5,956	6,496	5,885
Average	3,978	4,097	3,207	3,069	2,892	3,147
10% most deprived (total)	0	24	368	3	254	0
10% most deprived (as % of all)	0%	3%	10%	3%	15%	0%
10% most affluent (total)	2	164	353	1	130	1
10% most affluent (as % of all)	3%	19%	10%	1%	8%	1%

(Source: Scottish National Statistics, 2011)

Table 37. Rank of deprivation for employment

Overall	N	NE	E	SW	W	NW
Min (most deprived)	1,207	29	1	413	4	1,857
Max (most affluent)	6,444	6,503	6,503	5,921	6,494	5,389
Average	4,279	4,134	3,155	3,192	2,952	3,458
10% most deprived (total)	0	21	386	2	240	0
10% most deprived (as % of all)	0%	2%	10%	2%	14%	0%
10% most affluent (total)	6	180	340	1	124	0
10% most affluent (as % of all)	8%	21%	9%	1%	7%	0%

(Source: Scottish National Statistics, 2011)

Table 38 shows employment data by industry sector for Scotland. The table shows that the greatest number of jobs are associated with Sectors G (wholesale and retail trade) (22% of the total for 2010) and Q (human health and social work activities) (23% of the total for 2010). Other industry sectors accounting for more than 10% of jobs are education (P) at 12%, manufacturing (C) and administrative and support services (N) at 11%, and accommodation and food services activities (I) at 10%. Less significant at the national scale are agriculture, forestry and fishing (0.5%), mining and quarrying (1.9%) and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (1.2%).

Table 38. Employment data by industry sector

Industry Sector	Full-time		Part-time		Total
	2009	2010	2009	2010	2009	2010
A: Agriculture, forestry and fishing	5,045	5,701	742	2,654	5,814	8,326
B: Mining and quarrying	28,132	29,856	976	649	29,099	30,522
C: Manufacturing	169,813	155,717	12,982	12,871	182,856	168,615
D: Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply	14,683	16,750	1,631	1,984	16,308	18,693
E: Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities	15,108	13,855	748	889	15,870	14,752
F: Construction	123,726	112,023	8,352	7,587	132,111	119,656
G: Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles	195,331	190,295	150,918	152,716	346,255	343,011
H: Transportation and storage	85,447	78,598	16,033	12,804	101,460	91,489
I: Accommodation and food service activities	73,328	74,791	97,980	88,754	171,320	163,540
J: Information and communication	51,963	50,722	11,132	10,885	63,189	61,661
K: Financial and insurance activities	74,936	70,837	17,993	14,442	92,986	85,350
L: Real estate activities	20,810	16,861	5,908	5,197	26,755	22,095
M: Professional, scientific and technical activities	123,790	113,332	23,946	21,515	147,712	134,844
N: Administrative and support service activities	112,701	106,093	63,215	65,573	175,966	171,684
O: Public administration and defence; compulsory social security	118,572	121,312	32,707	33,800	151,270	155,122
P: Education	118,530	113,765	74,490	78,455	192,934	192,175
Q: Human health and social work activities	202,708	201,011	171,366	171,390	374,051	372,406
R: Arts, entertainment and recreation	31,139	28,622	29,733	32,465	60,926	61,090
S: Other service activities	23,467	22,607	17,245	16,626	40,703	39,276
Total	1,589,229	1,522,748	738,097	731,256	2,327,585	2,254,307

Notes: NOMIS statistics show 0 jobs for sectors T and U

(Source: ONS, 2011)

Figure 22 shows the distribution of business units by industry sector, nationally and regionally. The map shows that Sectors K, L, M, and N (financial and insurance, real estate, professional, scientific and technical services and admin and support service activities) make up the greatest number of business units nationally (27%), followed by Sector G (wholesale, retail and repairs) at 20%. The Image shows significant differences in the proportion of business units within Sectors A, B, C and E, with these forming a much larger proportion of all businesses in the North (43%), South West (35%), and North West (25%) than nationally (11%). The figure also shows that there is considerable regional variation in terms of business units in Business Sectors KLMN, with the maximum being in East and North East Regions (both 31%) and the minimum in North (11%),South West (12%) and North West (13%). Sector I (accommodation and food service) is much more prevalent in the North West (12%) than overall (8%), with the minimum (6%) in North Region.

2.14.3.3 Crofting

Crofting can be defined as small-scale subsistence farming, a croft being a small unit of land which is often located on a larger estate ^[21] . Crofting land is often poor quality and holdings are small. However, crofting is an important part of the economy and community in the crofting counties, which are mainly located in the Highlands and Western Isles (Scottish Government, 2010). A quarter of Scotland's agricultural holdings have one or more crofts attached, with an estimated 18,000 crofts and 33,000 people living in crofting households. Holdings with crofts employed 1,406 staff in June 2009 (Scottish Government, 2010). Crofting provides around 33% of household income, with an average income from crofting of £8,520 (Table 39).

Table 39. Number of crofts and crafting income by region

Area	No. of Crofts	Mean Proportion of Household Income from Crofting (%)	Income from crofting (£2007)
Orkney	466	47.30	12,800
Skye, Lochalsh, Lochaber	2,515	43.67	6,580
Inverness, Badenoch, Strathspey	435	42.27	11,240
NE Highland*	2,757	36.45	9,800
N W Highland*	2,063	30.69	8,060
Tiree	275	34.83	7,500
Argyll and Bute (excl.. Tiree)	534	34.50	7,110
Shetland	2,755	27.22	10,050
Western Isles	6,027	23.86	6,560
Total	17,827	33.87	8,520

* North East and North West Highland include Caithness, Ross-Shire and Sutherland.

(Source: Hilliam, 2007)

The turnover of the social economy in Scotland ^[22] is summarised in Table 40. The table shows that the value of the social economy decreased slightly between 2004 and 2005, before gradually increasing to 2009.

Table 40. Turnover of social economy in Scotland (2004 to 2009)

Indicator	Date
	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Social economy turnover (£ millions)	2,908	2,811	2,827	2,976	2,937	3,064

(Source: Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics, 2011)

Image 15 shows the percentage of businesses surviving for more than three years. The chart shows the mean survival rate across local authorities within each region. The error bars show the difference between the minimum and maximum percentages across the regions (except for South West and North West, where the minimum, mean and maximum are the same). The Image shows that the overall national mean is 65%, with the lowest being in the North West at 62% and the highest in the South West at 73%. If the maximum survival rates across local authorities are used, the national rate increases to 75%. The lowest is again the North West at 62%, while the highest is 75% in the North East and North. If the minimum rates are taken, the national survival rate declines to 56%. The lowest Regional survival rate is 56% in the East while the highest is 62% in North East (ignoring South West and North West as these do not have minimum or maximum values).

Image 15. Percentage of Businesses Surviving for Longer Than Three Years

2.14.3.4 Health

Image 16 presents the proportion of people who considered that their health was very good or good between 1999 and 2008. The figure gives the minimum response rate with the maximum response shown by the error bars. The figure shows a variable response rate, with no clear trends across all four surveys for most regions. It can be seen that there is much greater variation in self-assessed health in the East and West regions than in the North East, North West or North (there is only one Local Authority allocated to South West, so the minimum and maximum value are the same). In terms of the minimum value, people in the East and West are less likely to believe that their health is good or very good. There is very little difference in the perception of good or very good health in North East, South West, North West and North in 2007/08. However, there may be a reduction in percentage believing their health to be good or very good in the North over the time period.

Image 16. Self-Assessed Health Rating (Minimum %)

(Source: Scottish National Statistics, 2011)

Health is one of the indicators considered in the index of deprivation. Table 41 summarises the information on health deprivation, where this relates to higher than expected level of ill-health or mortality for the age-sex profile of the population (Scottish Government, 2009). The table shows that East and West have the most datazones that are deprived, with 9% of all datazones in the East and 15% in the West falling into the most deprived 10%. These are also the regions with the lowest proportions of people rating their health as good or very good. The East also has 10% of datazones that lie in the most affluent 10%, although the highest proportion is in the North East (at 15%). Both the North and North West Regions have no datazones in the most deprived 10% for health, with small proportions in the most affluent (North at 5% and North West at 4%). These data suggest a link between the level of deprivation and the self-reported rating of health, with the inference being that investment into the regions that helps reduce deprivation could being health benefits.

Table 41. Rank of deprivation for health

Overall	N	NE	E	SW	W	NW
Min (most deprived)	1140	14	3	499	1	1066
Max (most affluent)	6402	6503	6505	6482	6486	6111
Average	3923	3985	3230	3902	2846	3287
10% most deprived (total)	0	43	349	2	255	0
10% most deprived (as % of all)	0%	5%	9%	2%	15%	0%
10% most affluent (total)	4	132	373	8	131	3
10% most affluent (as % of all)	5%	15%	10%	8%	8%	4%

(Source: Scottish National Statistics, 2011)

2.14.3.5 Health risks

Mean weekly consumption of alcohol among adults aged 16 and above declined from 14.1 units in 2003 to 11.6 units in 2010. This decline was evident in both men (from 19.8units to 16.0) and women (from 9.0 units to 7.6). There was also a decline in what is considered harmful or hazardous weekly drinking (for men consumption over 21 units, for women consumption over 14 units). In 2003, 28% of adults were considered harmful/hazardous drinkers, this fell to 22% in 2010. The same trend was seen in men (33% to 27%) and women (23% to 18%). People who drank above the recommended limits tended to be from the highest income groups. Around 60% of men from more socially advantaged backgrounds drank above the guidelines, compared to 44% in the lower income groups. Around 48% of women drank above the recommended limits that were from the highest income groups compared with 26% in the more socially deprived areas (Scottish National Statistics, 2011).

Smokers aged 16-64 declined from 35% in 1995 to 28% in 2010. Smoking rates in men and women in 2010 was roughly the same; 26% and 25% respectively. Another measure of health can be estimated from dietary consumption of fruit and vegetables. Based on the recommended daily intake of five or more portions per day, only 22% of adults achieved this in 2010, with women slightly more likely to consume 5 and above than men (23% compared with 20% of men). This links with levels of obesity in adults aged 16-64, which increased from 52.4% in 1995 to 63% in 2010 ( BMI 25kg/m ² and over). In 2010 men aged 16 and over were more likely to be obese than women; 68% compared to 62%. Children (aged 16 and below) had average obesity rates of around 30% in 2010. Cardiovascular disease is another indication of adult health, and rates of around 16% for men and 14% for women were reported in 2010 (aged 16 and over).

Combining these measures of health together with physical activity (classed as more than 30mins for 5 days a week), gives an indication of those with health risks. In 2010 only 2% of adults had none of these health risks (based on individual measures of alcohol consumption, smoking, not meeting physical activity recommendations, eating fewer than five portions of fruit and vegetables, and being overweight or obese, based on body mass index). A total of 59% of adults had three or more of these health risks, and 24% had four or five. People in socio-economically deprived areas had a higher number of health risks than more advantaged people. The average number of risks was for 2.9 for men and 3.0 for women in deprived areas compared to with 2.6 for men and 2.4 for women in less deprived areas (Scottish National Statistics, 2011). The inference from these data is that investment into deprived areas could lead to a reduction in health risks.

2.14.3.6 Equality

The index of deprivation gives an indication of the overall well-being of communities. Consideration of the rank of areas within each region provides information on the overall health of the community. The index of deprivation is built up of a number of key indicators; these can also be used to identify key sources of deprivation. Table 42 provides information on the overall rank of deprivation (where 1 is the most deprived and 6505 is the most affluent).

Table 42. Overall rank of deprivation

Overall	N	NE	E	SW	W	NW
Min (most deprived)	1,346	23	1	225	2	1,605
Max (most affluent)	5,353	6,505	6,504	5,963	6,502	4,253
Average	3,556	3,979	3,231	3,141	2,932	2,763
10% most deprived (total)	0	25	377	2	245	0
10% most deprived (as % of all)	0%	3%	10%	2%	15%	0%
10% most affluent (total)	0	128	380	1	142	0
10% most affluent (as % of all)	0%	15%	10%	1%	9%	0%

(Source: Scottish National Statistics, 2011)

Table 44 shows that the most deprived datazone is in East Region and the second most deprived in West Region. The most affluent datazone is found in North East Region, with the second most affluent in East Region. The greatest proportion of 10% most deprived datazones can be found in West Region, where 15% of all the datazones lie within the 10% most deprived. East Region has 10% of datazones within the most deprived decile, with North East Region having just 3% and South West Region just 2% of its datazones in the 10% most deprived. North and North West Regions have no datazones lying in the most deprived decile. Similarly, neither North nor North West Regions have any datazones in the top 10% (most affluent). The greatest proportion of affluent zones is found in North East Region (15%) followed by East Region (10%) and West Region (9%). This suggests that the North East Region is the most affluent, although there are also areas that are deprived. The North and North West Regions ap p.a. to be neither affluent nor deprived. There are more deprived than affluent datazones in the West and South West Regions, but it is the North West that has the lowest average deprivation rating (2,763) suggesting that it is the most deprived as an overall region.

The index of deprivation includes a number of indicators, including education, skills and training; employment, housing and income within the overall rank. Each of these is reported in the relevant sub-section with this social and community issues section.

Given that the impacts of renewable energy generation may be concentrated offshore, it is appropriate to consider the deprivation of coastal datazone areas ^[23] . Table 43 presents the results for the overall rank of deprivation (more details on the individual indicators can be found in the region specific sections). There are 875 coastal datazones (13% of the 6,505 total datazones) of these 30% (263) are in the East Region, 28% (241) are in the West, 22% (193) are in the North East, 7% (65%) are in the North West, 7% (62) in the North and 6% (51) in the South West Regions. Table 45 shows that coastal zones are less likely to be deprived, with 6% (in East Region) falling into the most deprived decile (compared with 12% of all datazones in East), 0% in South West (compared with 3% of all datazones) and (11%) in West Region (compared with 15% of all datazones). The same proportion (3%) is deprived in coastal datazones as in all datazones in the North East. In total, there are 47 datazones that are in the most deprived 10% overall. Coastal datazones are much less likely to be amongst the most affluent in the North East (2% of coastal zones compared with 15% of all datazones), East (7% coastal and 10% all) and West Regions (1% coastal compared with 9% overall), and South West (0% coastal and 1% all). There is no difference in North and North West Regions.

Table 43. Overall rank of deprivation (coastal datazones only)

Overall	N	NE	E	SW	W	NW
Min (most deprived)	1,746	23	7	957	34	1,703
Max (most affluent)	5,353	6,324	6,483	5,469	6,180	4,253
Average	3,587	3,477	3,668	3,150	2,939	2,792
10% most deprived (total)	0	5	15	0	27	0
10% most deprived (as % of all)	0%	3%	6%	0%	11%	0%
10% most affluent (total)	0	4	19	0	3	0
10% most affluent (as % of all)	0%	2%	7%	0%	1%	0%
Min (most deprived)	78%	22%	7%	50%	14%	94%

(Source: Scottish National Statistics, 2011)

2.14.3.7 Community well-being

Image 17 shows the change in number of people (children, individuals, pensioners and working age adults) in poverty ^[24] between 1998/99 to 2009/10. The chart shows a gradual decline in the number of people in poverty over this time period, although the pattern is less clear for working age adults and total number of individuals. Image 18 presents the change in proportion of the population and, again shows a decline, with the greatest reduction seen for children in poverty.

Image 17. Chart Showing Change in Population in Poverty

(Source: Scottish National Statistics, 2011)

Image 18. Chart Showing Change in Proportion of the Population in Poverty

(Source: Scottish National Statistics, 2011)

2.14.3.8 Skills, training and education

North and North West Regions have 0% of datazones that are in the 10% most deprived for skills, training and education, see Table 44. North East Region has 4% of datazones that are in the most deprived decile for education, skills and training (compared with 3% overall). East Region has 12% of datazones that are in the most deprived decile for education, skills and training, (compared with 10% overall). In the South West Region, there is a greater proportion of datazones that are in the 10% most deprived due to education, skills and training (3%) compared with 2% overall. West Region has a lower level of datazones in the 10% most deprived for education, skills and training (11% compared with 15% overall). This suggests that the East and West Regions would benefits most from additional skills and training and that higher skill levels may be available overall in the North and North West Regions.

Table 44. Rank of deprivation for education, skills and training

Overall	N	NE	E	SW	W	NW
Min (most deprived)	2049	49	2	50	1	2426
Max (most affluent)	5612	6497	6505	6188	6503	6137
Average	4031	3761	3127	3496	3187	3883
10% most deprived (total)	0	36	427	3	183	0
10% most deprived (as % of all)	0%	4%	12%	3%	11%	0%
10% most affluent (total)	0	96	348	4	200	3
10% most affluent (as % of all)	0%	11%	9%	4%	12%	4%

(Source: Scottish National Statistics, 2011)

Education and skills

Table 45 shows the percentage of the population with a degree, for 2004 to 2010. The table shows that the proportion of the national population with a degree increased from 17% in 2004 to 21% in 2010. The increase was much greater in the North East (from 17% to 23%). The proportion of the population with degrees is lowest in the South West, although the North saw the slowest increase (4% point over the seven year period compared with a 6% point increase in the North East and North West). It could be expected that the regions with a higher proportion of the population with a degree could provide a workforce with higher skills.

Table 45. Percentage of the population with a degree (2004 - 2010)

Weighted Average	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
National	17%	18%	19%	20%	20%	21%	21%
NE	17%	18%	18%	19%	20%	22%	23%
E	17%	18%	20%	20%	20%	20%	21%
W	17%	17%	19%	20%	20%	21%	21%
SW	11%	14%	14%	15%	15%	17%	16%
NW	13%	14%	14%	16%	16%	20%	19%
N	14%	14%	13%	14%	14%	17%	18%

(Source: Scottish National Statistics, 2011)

Table 46 provides a summary of the proportion of the population with no qualifications. The table shows that the percentage nationally with no qualification has dropped from 16% in 2004 to 12% in 2010. The table also shows that here are significant regional variations. The West Region has the highest proportion with no qualifications (16%), the next highest being the East (12%), for 2010. Although the West Region has always had the highest percentage, the gap between it and the region with the lowest percentage has widened from 5% points in 2004 to 9% points in 2010. The reduction in proportion of population with no qualifications is greatest in the North West (8% point reduction) and smallest in the West (2% point reduction), followed by the East (3% point reduction). North Region ap p.a.s to have low rates of population with no qualifications, but this could be increasing (although there are data gaps which make interpretation of possible trends more difficult). Regions with lower proportions of the population with no qualifications could again provide a workforce with higher skills.

Table 46. Percentage of the population with no qualifications (2004 - 2010)

Weighted Average	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
National	16%	15%	14%	14%	14%	13%	12%
NE	13%	12%	12%	10%	10%	10%	8%
E	15%	14%	13%	13%	13%	13%	12%
W	18%	18%	17%	17%	17%	16%	16%
SW	17%	15%	14%	17%	17%	16%	11%
NW	15%	12%	11%	11%	10%	8%	7%
N (data missing)	9%	No data	No data	10%	10%	No data	No data

(Source: Scottish National Statistics, 2011)

Table 47 shows the number of people receiving job-related training. The table shows that the proportion of employees receiving job-related training has fallen nationally from 31% in 2004 to 28% in 2010. This pattern is seen consistently across the regions, with the greatest reduction in the South West (from 30% in 2005 to 21% in 2010). The South West has the lowest rate of job-related training at 21% with the next lowest being 27% (East, North West and North). The North has declined from the region with the highest rates of job-related training (34% in 2004) to 27% in 2010, 2% points below the West Region, which had the highest rates in 2010 (29%). The West Region is the only one which shows a recent increase, declining to 28% in 2007 before increasing again to 29% in 2008 to 2010. A higher level of job-related training suggests that workers are continually improving their skills, enabling a higher-skills base to be developed.

Table 47. Percentage receiving job-related training (2004 - 2010)

Weighted Average	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
National	31%	30%	30%	28%	28%	28%	28%
NE	30%	28%	30%	28%	29%	27%	28%
E	31%	30%	30%	28%	27%	27%	27%
W	32%	30%	30%	28%	29%	29%	29%
SW	29%	30%	24%	22%	27%	24%	21%
NW	29%	28%	27%	28%	28%	27%	27%
N	34%	32%	31%	27%	28%	28%	27%

(Source: Scottish National Statistics, 2011)

Access to training facilities, such as Higher Education and Further Education colleges, may also give an indication of access to education and skills. Image 19 shows the percentage of household within 30 minutes drive time of a Higher or Further Education college nationally and regionally. The chart shows that those living in the East (93%) or West (88%) are more likely than the national average (85%) to be within 30 minutes drive time of a college. Those living in the North West (53%) and South West (55%) are the least likely. As with all the data on education, skills and training, short driving times could indicate the potential for a workforce with higher skills.

The combination of all the data on education, skills and training gives a somewhat mixed picture. The North and North West Regions are less deprived than other regions in terms of education, skills and training but populations here are less likely to have a degree than the national average. People in the East and West Regions are more likely to have no qualification and are more deprived in terms of education, skills and training but these regions also have the equal second highest percentages of people with degrees 21% compared with the maximum of 23% in the North East Region). The West Region is also the region with the highest percentage of people receiving job-related training (closely followed by the North East Region). The South West Region has the lowest percentage of people receiving job-related training; it is also the region with the lowest proportion of the population with a degree.

Image 19. Chart Showing Proportion of the Population Within 30 Minutes Drive Time of a Higher or Further Education College

(Source: Scottish National Statistics)

School Statistics

The pupil teacher ratio in all schools increased from 13.3 in 2010 to 13.4 in 2011. Pupil teacher ratios by sector are shown in Table 48. Both primary and secondary schools saw increases in pupil teacher ratios, but a slight fall occurred in the special school sector.

Table 48. Pupil teacher ratios by school sector in 2010 and 2011

Sector	2010	2011
Primary	15.8	16.0
Secondary	12.1	12.3
Special	3.6	3.5
Average	13.3	13.4

(Source: Scottish National Statistics, 2011)

Between 2007 and 2011 over 350 schools have been substantially rebuilt or refurbished, and the percentage of school in satisfactory or good condition rose from 61% in 2007 to 80% in 2011. The proportion of initial leavers who were in positive destinations (higher education further education, training, voluntary work, employment and activity agreements) was almost 90% in 2011. This figure had increased from 86% in 2009. The proportion of young people entering higher education was 63% in 2011. At the end of Stage 5 the proportion of Stage 4 students attaining three or more Highers or better was 26% in 2010/11. At the end of Stage 6, the proportion of Stage 4 students attaining one or more Advanced Highers increased from 14% in 2008/09 to 15% in 2010/11 (Scottish National Statics, 2011).

2.14.3.9 Access to services

Table 49 identifies the total stock of household spaces, the percentage occupied and percentage vacant (in 2001). The table shows that the greatest housing pressure may be in the East and West Regions with occupancy ratings of 96% and 95%, respectively. The North West Region has the lowest proportion that is occupied (89%) but has only 4% that are vacant; the remaining 6% being holiday spaces. West (4%) and North East (3%) Regions also have a significant proportion of spaces for holiday occupation.

Table 49. Household spaces

Area	Total Spaces	Occupied Spaces	% Occupied	Vacant Spaces	% Vacant
National	2,308,939	2,192,246	95%	87,394	4%
NE	339,517	313,085	92%	17,001	5%
E	1,096,263	1,052,750	96%	35,861	3%
W	772,631	733,876	95%	29,908	4%
SW	67,865	63,807	94%	2,507	4%
NW	112,945	100,808	89%	4,969	4%
W	19,466	17,453	90%	1,148	6%

(Source: Scottish National Statistics, 2011)

The average percentage of private and social sector dwellings that fail the Scottish Housing Quality Standard ( SHQS) level for 2004-2006 and 2005-2008 is presented in Table 50. By 2010, the percentage of dwellings failing the SHQS standard across Scotland as a whole was 61% (Scottish National Statistics, 2011). These statistics can be used alongside the household spaces data to give an indication of the level of access to housing considered to be of sufficient standard. Most of the failures are attributed to the energy efficiency criterion. The proportion of housing that was below the tolerable standard was 3.9% in 2010 (a slight increase of 0.7% from 2009, largely attributable to a change in the definition of tolerable to include thermal performance and electrical safety) (Scottish National Statistics, 2011). The statistics are variable across the regions, with the South West Region having the lowest percentage of social sector dwellings failing the SHQS (59%) in 2005-2008 but the second highest percentage of private dwellings that fail the SHQS (78%) (the highest being the West Region at 79%). The North East Region is the only region where the percentage of private and social sector dwellings is below the national average, suggesting housing quality is of a higher standard here. Private dwellings in the East Region are less likely to fail the SHQS than nationally (65% compared with 69%), with private dwelling failures matching the national average (66%). It is the West Region which has the highest proportion of dwelling that fail (both private and social sector) at 79% and 69%, respectively.

Table 50. Proportion of dwellings failing the SHQS level

Area	% private dwellings failing SHQS		% social sector dwellings failing SHQS
	2004-2007	2005-2008	2004-2007	2005-2008
National	72%	69%	71%	66%
NE	68%	65%	62%	60%
E	69%	65%	72%	66%
W	74%	72%	72%	67%
SW	79%	78%	64%	59%
NW	74%	74%	74%	64%
W	82%	79%	75%	69%

(Source: Scottish National Statistics, 2011)

The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation for housing focuses on the inadequacy of housing and covers the suitability and physical condition of housing (but does not include data from the Scottish House Condition Survey due to the small sample sizes). Instead, the data are based on indicators such as the 2001 census on overcrowding, lack of basic amenities and vacant dwellings. The results are given in Table 51. The regions with the most deprived datazones are the West (16%) and East (10%), while the greatest proportion of most affluent datazones is in the North East (13%). The East and West Regions also have a high proportion of datazones in the most affluent for housing (10% each) showing that there is significant diversity in these two regions. The West Region is the most deprived overall, with an average rating of 2,866. The North East Region is the most affluent overall (3,899) suggesting that it has the most adequate housing. This is supported by data from Table 51, where the North East Region had the lowest level of housing that failed the SHQS.

Table 51. Rank of deprivation for housing

Overall	N	NE	E	SW	W	NW
Min (most deprived)	685	176	1	1,057	2	1,006
Max (most affluent)	6,153	6,505	6,505	6,391	6,500	5,424
Average	3,650	3,899	3,244	3,837	2,886	3,066
10% most deprived (total)	0	21	367	0	261	0
10% most deprived (as % of all)	0%	2%	10%	0%	16%	0%
10% most affluent (total)	4	113	363	4	167	0
10% most affluent (as % of all)	5%	13%	10%	4%	10%	0%

(Source: Scottish National Statistics, 2011)

Affordability of housing is also important. Total council housing debt in Scotland was estimated at £2,690 million in 2011, the equivalent of £8,492 per house. Total debt has risen since 2008 (from £1,842 million) but before then it had fallen (from £4,152 million in 1997). This is equivalent to £6,678 per house in 1997, falling to £5,385 per house in 2005, increasing to £5,646 in 2008 and to £8,492 per house in 2011. The highest amount of debt per property is in North Region at an average of £20,518 per house (2011 with the lowest being in West Region (£8,054 per house). The averages mask a lot of variation between local authorities, with a maximum debt of £25,212 (Shetland, North Region) and a minimum of £3,356 (Falkirk, East Region) (Scottish National Statistics, 2011).

Image 20 and Figure 23 shows the mean house sale prices from 1993 to 2010. The figure shows that house sale prices increased significantly between around 2000 and 2008 before dropping back in 2009. There are some signs of a recovery in 2010. The figure also shows that house prices in the North East Region are now significantly greater than the national average, while those for the East are slightly higher. Prices in the North are the lowest, followed by the North West, with house sale prices in South West Region are also lower than the national average. House sale prices in the West seem to closely match the national average. Affordability of housing is an important factor and a comparison can be made between average house price and gross income in the regions. In 2009, the house price to earnings ratio in Scotland was 3.6 (lower than the average for the UK as a whole of 4.2) (average earnings being £47,955 and average house price of £174,433) (House of Commons, 2010). Scotland was also identified as having the highest level of home affordability in the UK, with mortgage payments making up 22% of disposable earnings in the second quarter of 2011 (Bank of Scotland, 2011).

Image 20 . Mean House Price

(Source: Scottish National Statistics)

Table 52 provides an overview of the average (mean and median) time required to drive to particular services, including GPs, post office and primary school. Table 53 provides the range (minimum to maximum) of drive time. The tables show that the average (mean or median) drive times to any of these services is quite small (the national maximum is 4.9 (3) minutes to a supermarket and the minimum is 2.9 (2.4) to either a post office or a primary school. The ranges (minimum to maximum) though show that there is considerable inequality. People living in the East are within 38 minutes of any of the five services, while those in the North East are within 40 minutes with the exception of supermarkets. Access to services such as GP, post office and primary schools is good in the North West and West, with the maximum driving time being 40 minutes and 52 minutes, respectively. Drive times to supermarkets and petrol stations in North, West and North West can be very long for some (up to 253 minutes to a supermarket in the West). Access to services is an important indicator in terms of quality of life.

Table 52. Mean (median) drive time to services

Service	Mean (Median) Drive Time in Minutes
	National	N	NE	E	SW	W	NW
GP	3.8 (3)	7.2 (5.1)	4.8 (3.4)	3.5 (2.9)	5.8 (4.2)	3.5 (2.8)	12 (11)
Petrol Station	4.8 (3.5)	12 (7.2)	5.5 (3.8)	4.4 (3.5)	6.8 (5.4)	4.4 (3.3)	18 (12)
Post Office	2.9 (2.4)	4.6 (4)	3.3 (2.6)	2.7 (2.3)	3.9 (3.3)	2.7 (2.2)	6.6 (5.3)
Primary School	2.9 (2.4)	8.8 (5.2)	3.3 (2.5)	2.7 (2.4)	3.8 (3.1)	2.8 (2.3)	7.8 (6.7)
Supermarket	4.9 (3)	21 (13)	6.6 (3.7)	3.7 (2.9)	6.7 (4.6)	4.5 (3)	33 (26)

(Source: Scottish National Statistics, 2011)

Table 53. Range (minimum to maximum) of drive time to services

Service	Mean Drive Time in Minutes
	National	N	NE	E	SW	W	NW
GP	0.4 - 40	1.1 - 24	0.8 - 27	0.7 - 27	1.2 - 18	0.4 - 32	1.3 - 40
Petrol Station	0.8 - 135	1.1 - 101	0.9 - 40	0.8 - 38	1.3 - 27	0.8 - 52	1.5 -135
Post Office	0.6 - 25	1 - 17	0.7 - 18	0.7 - 16	1.1 - 14	0.6 - 23	1.4 - 25
Primary School	6.9 - 85	1.3 - 85	0.8- 19	0.6 - 17	0.- -134	0.8 - 25	1.2 - 25
Supermarket	0.7 - 253	1.2 - 112	0.7 - 66	0.7 - 27	1 - 28	0.7 - 253	1.3 - 173

(Source: Scottish National Statistics, 2011)

2.14.3.10 Community empowerment

A definition of community empowerment is given by the Scottish Government & COSLA (2009): 'a process where people work together to make change happen in their communities by having more power and influence over what matters to them.'

This can include such things as owning land and buildings, which can have a big effect on community empowerment. Schemes such as the BIG Lottery Scotland's Growing Community Assets programme, provides funds to assist asset ownership. Another service is providing local councillors with support via training programmes offered by local government. Being involved with public spending via directing how small action funds are spent to develop solutions to antisocial behaviour, is supported by COSLA and the Scottish Government. In total the government made £180 million of funding available for various community based projects between 2008 and 2011. Projects include the Climate Change Fund which enables communities to develop their own solutions to reducing carbon emissions.

Crofting communities should also be mentioned as crofting has a diverse cultural heritage and invokes community spirit and empowerment (Fiona & Mackenzie, 2007). Many crofters own their land and several legislations protecting crofts exist (Bryden, 2007). Crofting is not only a means of supplementing income or agricultural produce, it is also a way of life (RR Donnelly, 2008). Many grant schemes are available for crofters in order to maintain crofting traditions, make improvements to existing crofts and encourage younger generations to take up crofting (Scottish Government, 2010).

2.14.3.11 Quality of life

Image 21 shows the differences in perceptions of neighbourhoods across the regions. The chart shows that fewer people living in the West Region rated their neighbourhood as a very good plans to live by just 34% of respondents. The chart shows the minimum values (i.e. from the Council area with the lowest percentage agreeing with the statement). The chart also shows that values for the East Region seem to be reducing over time (from 40.6% in 1999/2000 to 39% in 2007/08 before increasing slightly to 40% in 2007/08). The highest values are in the South West, North West and North Regions. These had similar proportions of the population believing their neighbourhood to be a good plans to live in 1999/00 (around 60to 62%), but by 2007/08, the response from the North Region had increased significantly to almost 78% (compared with reasonably unchanged levels (62%) in South West and North West). The North East Region shows the most consistent increase, from 45% in 1999/2000 to 54% in 2007/08.

Image 21. Perceptions of Neighbourhood (Minimum Response)

(Source: Scottish National Statistics, 2011)

2.14.3.12 Energy and resource consumption

Section 2.7 discusses renewable energy generation; this section covers consumption of energy. Image 22 shows energy consumption ( MWh per person) from 2005 to 2009 for all consumers. The Figure shows that the greatest energy consumption is in the North West , with an average of 13.5 MWh/person in 2009. The lowest was in the West, at 4.85 MWh/person in 2009. The overall trend is a reduction in energy consumption, with national demand down by 8.4% (all consumers) between 2005 and 2009. The largest reduction was in the West (-11%) and the smallest in the North (-5.4%).

Image 22. Energy Consumption ( MWh) Per Person by Region (All Consumers)

(Source: Scottish National Statistics, 2011)

Image 23 provides similar data but for domestic consumers only. The pattern of energy consumption is very similar to that for all consumers, with the North West having much higher consumption per person than the other regions (6.29 MWh/person in 2009). The second highest level of consumption is in the North (4.40 MWh/person). This is much closer to consumption in the North West than for all consumers. Again, there is a downward trend with national energy consumption reducing by 8% per person between 2005 and 2009. The largest decrease is again in the West (-10.3%), followed by the East and South West (both-7.6%). The smallest reduction was in the North West (-4.4%), followed by the North (-5.4%) and the North East (-5.5%).

Image 23. Energy Consumption ( MWh) Per Person by Region (Domestic Consumers Only)

(Source: Scottish National Statistics, 2011)

A household is identified as being in fuel poverty if it 'would be required to spend more than 10% of its income (including benefits) on all household fuel use'. The Scottish Government has pledged to ensure that, as far as is reasonably p.a.ticable, that no-on will be living in fuel poverty by November 2016 in Scotland (Scottish Government, 2010e). However, Image 24 shows that fuel poverty has been increasing between 2004-2007 and 2007-2009, with this increase being from 24% (2004-2007) to 29.5% (2007-2009) for the whole population. The group that has the highest rate of fuel poverty is where the highest income householder ( HIH) is older than 60. Here, the percentage in fuel poverty increased from 42% (2004-2007) to 46.6% (2005-2008) before falling to 45.9% (2007-2009). The biggest increase in fuel poverty between 2004 and 2009 was in the population with no disability or long-term sick, where the percentage of this group increased by 6.7% (from 27.8% to 34.6%).

Image 24. Percentage of the Population in Fuel Poverty in Scotland

(Source: Scottish National Statistics, 2011)

Image 25 shows the variation in fuel poverty for the whole population across the regions. The chart shows considerable variation, with the highest incidence of fuel poverty in these households being in the North West (47.5% in 2007-2009), South West (41.3%, 2007-2009) and North (40.7%, 2007-2009). In all regions, the percentage of households that are in fuel poverty is increasing. The greatest difference between the regions is seen in households where the highest income householder is 60+. Image 26 shows the change in fuel poverty as a percentage of the population in each region where the highest income householder is 60+. Image 26 shows though that the percentage of the HIH 60+ group in fuel poverty has decreased in most regions between 2005-2008 and 2007-2009. The only exception is the South West, where the percentage of the HIH 60+ group in fuel poverty has increased from 47.5% (2004-2007) to 52.9% (2005-2008) and to 56.6% (2007-2009).

Image 25. Variation in Fuel Poverty Across All Regions

Image 26. Percentage of Households with HIH 60+ in Fuel Poverty

2.14.3.13 Summary of future trends

Table 54 summarises the statistics and trends discussed above to give an indication of the likely future changes by indicator. There is much greater uncertainty over trends for the time period of 30 to 50 years and, in both cases, it is assumed that future trends follow recent and historic trends.

Table 54. Summary of future trends in Scotland

2.15 Telecom Cables

2.15.1 Definition of Sector/Activity

This sector relates to fibre optic submarine telecommunication cables, which carry telephone calls, internet connections and data as part of national and international data transfer networks utilised for the majority of international communication transmissions.

2.15.2 Description of Information Sources

A range of information has been accessed to inform this baseline, including published reports, spatial data layers and other specific information provided through stakeholder engagement ( Table 55).

Table 55. Information sources for telecomm cables baseline

Scale	Information Available	Date	Source
Regional	Telecom Cable Routes including both in and out of service cables.	Issue 13/ January 2011	KIS-CA http://www.kisca.org.uk/charts.htm
Scotland	All pipelines and cables	Current	SeaZone Solutions Ltd
Scotland	Overview of Telecommunication cables, with lengths of active cables per region.	No date	Baxter et al (2011)

2.15.2.1 Data limitations

In general, the data available on subsea cables is limited and there is currently no agreed method for valuing the services provided by cables as they form part of a wider infrastructure. The approaches used at present will either result in a under or over estimation of the actual value of the cables ( ABPmer and RPA, 2011). In addition to the lack of baseline value there is no information on employment in this sector and little information on how this service may change in the future to inform future trends (Saunders et al, 2011).

2.15.3 National Overview of Current Activity

2.15.3.1 Distribution level and intensity of activity

Telecommunication cables within the Scottish Continental shelf include fibre optic international cable links and domestic inter-island cables which are mainly copper wire. Over 4000 km of international cables (comprising approximately 40% of all the UK's active international cables) and 600 km of inshore cables exist in Scottish seas (Baxter et al, 2011) (see Figure 24). An international network passes North and South of Shetland (present in the North and North West SORERs) connecting Europe to North America, Faroe Islands, Iceland and Greenland, while networks connecting Scotland and Northern Ireland occur in the West and South West SORERs. Cables connecting the Scottish mainland and island communities (in Orkney and Shetland) occur in the North East and North SORERs. The location of the cables passing through the SORERs and the designed data capacity are reviewed in more detail in the Regional overviews.

2.15.3.2 Economic value and employment

Baxter et al (2011) reported that the estimated value of the whole telecommunications industry in Scottish waters is £1.02 billion, meaning that it is not possible to value the underwater cables as a separate entity and thus vastly overestimating the value of this element of the industry. Therefore as the economic value of underwater cables and any associated employment contribution can not be fully determined they have not been considered further in the context of this study.

2.15.3.3 Historical trends

This sector has seen substantial growth over the last decade ( UKMMAS, 2010), as illustrated by the date on which the subsea telecommunications cables passing through the SORERs came into service ( Table 56).

Table 56. Submarine cables passing through the SREZs and date cables in-service

Cable	Date In Service
UK-DE NMARK 4 - Seg 2 BT	1988 (in service) 2004 (out of service)
SCOT LAND-N.IRE LAND 1	1989
UK/CH.IS LANDS 7	1989
BT- Mt 1	1990
LA NIS 2	1992
LA NIS 3	1992
LA NIS 3	1992
TAT 10B WEST S ECTION	1992
SCOT LAND-N.IRE LAND 2	1993
SCOT LAND-N.IRE LAND 2	1993
UK-CH.IS LANDS 8	1994
CANTAT 3 FC3	1994 (in service) 2010 (out of service)
CANTAT 3 F4	1994 (in service) 2010 (out of service)
AT LANTIC CROSSING 1 (AC1) Seg.A	1998
AT LANTIC CROSSING 1 (AC1) Seg.A	1998
NOR SEA COMS a	1999
NOR SEA COMS b	1999
BT-Manx NI	2000
SIRIUS NORTH	2000
SIRIUS NORTH	2000
HIBER NIA 'A'	2001
HIBER NIA 'A'	2001
HIBER NIA 'A' N.I.Branch	2001
TAT 14(K)	2001
TAT 14(K)	2001
Central North Sea ( CNS) FIBRE OPTIC*	2001
PANGEA NORTH UK/ DMK	2001
FARICE (2)	2004
NORTHERN LIGHTS	2008
SHEFA-2 Seg 7-1	2008
SHEFA-2 Seg 7-3	2008
SHEFA-2 Seg 8	2008
SHEFA-2 Seg 9	2008
SHEFA-2 Seg5	2008
SHEFA-2 Seg6	2008
SHEFA-2 Seg 9	2008
DA NICE Seg.1	2009
TAT 10B EAST S ECTION	1992 (in service) 2003 (out of service)
TAT 10B WEST S ECTION	1992 (in service) 2003 (out of service)
IOM/NORTHERN IRE LAND	Information not found

(Sources: www.kisca.org.uk; http://www.cablemap.info/default.aspx; and http://www.submarinecablemap.com/)

2.15.3.4 Future trends

According to the UK Cable Protection Committee ( UKCPC) data shows that 95% of international trans-ocean traffic is carried by cable, hence, submarine cables will be vital for the foreseeable future (Baxter et al, 2011). However, there is little information available on how this sector may change in the future (Saunders et al, 2011). According to UKMMAS (2010), changes in bandwidth and the development of high speed internet as well as continued growth in the sector are using up the spare capacity in the current telecommunication networks. The further development of more resilient networks requires a greater reliance on a number of submarine cable routes rather than a few, and major domestic and international systems are now being installed. Future developments in telecom cables are likely to focus on upgrading and increasing the capacity of existing cables along the same routes that are currently present ( ABPmer, RPA & SQW, 2011). The extent to which new cables will be laid in Scottish waters is not known (Baxter et al, 2011).

2.16 Tourism

2.16.1 Definition of Sector/Activity

This section covers baseline tourism and recreation data. Tourism can be defined as 'a stay of one or more nights away from home for holidays, visits to friends or relatives, business/conference trips or any other purposes excluding activities such as boarding education or semi-permanent employment' (VisitScotland ^[25] ). In this baseline, day trips are also included. Marine and coastal tourism can be defined as any recreational activity that makes use of the marine environment and intertidal coastal zones (Benfield and McConnell, 2007). This can include a range of activities such as walking along the sea-front to sea-side based horse riding. Both non-motorised (walking/picnicking) and motorised (boat-based tourism e.g. wildlife viewing) activities are also considered here. Benefits derived from the wild landscape may also be considered under tourism, indeed McMorran et al (2006) state that the most appropriate valuations of the natural landscape come from tourist expenditure. Tourist activities are also considered to influence other industries, such as accommodation, travel, food and beverage, etc.

2.16.2 Description of Information Sources

Table 57. Data sources used in the tourism chapter

Scale	Information Available	Date	Source
Local authority	Percentage of adults who have attended a cultural event in past 12 months	2007/08	Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics
Local authority	Percentage of adults making one or more visits to the outdoors per week	2006/08	Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics
Case studies	Value of local path network to individuals and the local economy	2008	Sport Industry Research Centre (2008): What Paths do for Scottish Society: An Economic and Social Impact Study, Scottish Natural Heritage Commissioned Report No. 280 (ROAME No. RO6AA607).
Scotland	Scottish Recreation Survey	2006 to 2008	Scottish Natural Heritage (cited as TNS, 2011)
Scotland	Assessing Future Recreation Demand, Commissioned Report No. 404	2010	Brown, Curry, Dilley, Taylor and Clark (2010)
Scotland	Economic Impact of Scotland's Natural Environment	2008	RPA and Cambridge Econometrics
Scotland	Scotland's Marine Atlas	2011	Scottish Government (Baxter et al, 2011)
Scotland	Basking Shark Hotspots on the West Coast of Scotland: Key sites, threats and implications for conservation of the species, Commissioned Report No. 339.	2009	Speedie, Johnson and Witt (2009)
Scotland	VisitScotland: Domestic Tourism - Review of Domestic Overnight Tourism to Scotland in 2010 and International Tourism - Review of International Overnight Tourism to Scotland in 2010	2011	VisitScotland
Scotland	Scottish Tourism: the next decade	2006	Scottish Executive
Scotland	Nature Based Tourism in the Outer Hebrides, Commissioned Report No. 353	2010	Taylor, Bryden, Westbrook and Anderson (2010)
Scotland	Marine and Coastal Visitor Management and Interpretation in Argyll and the Islands: the way forward.	2007	Benfield and McConnell (2007)
Scotland	A review of the benefits and opportunities attributed to Scotland's landscapes of wild character	2006	McMorran, Price and McVittie (2006) No. 194 (ROAME No. F04NC18)
Scotland	The Economic Impact of Wildlife Tourism in Scotland	2010	Scottish Government (2010)
Scotland and Worldwide	Whale Watching Worldwide	2008	IFAW (2009)
Scotland	Tourism Attitudes Survey	2001	NFO System Three Social Research and MORI (2002)
Scotland	The tangle of the Clyde, why we must reform the management of Scotland's marine environment	2004	Joint Marine Programme (2004)
Scotland	The Future of Cetacean Watching in Scotland under Different Climate Change Scenarios	2011	Lambert, MacLeod, Hunter and Pierce (2011)

2.16.2.1 Data limitations

Though a comprehensive review of the tourist industry exists in the data, much of this information does not relate specifically to coastal areas (for example, data on overall tourism turnover are available, but it is not clear what proportion relates to marine and coastal tourism). Therefore, where data are not available, countrywide studies and figures have been included in this baseline to provide an indication of the overall value of tourism. Some of this value can be attributed to marine and coastal tourism.

2.16.3 National Overview of Current Activity

2.16.3.1 Location of current activity

Figures 25, 26, 27 and 28 show the locations of the various tourist related sites within Scotland. Although there is a high concentration of sites within the central belt, coastal areas are also well represented with a range of site types present in all regions including the North East, North West and North. Indeed, in these three regions the majority of tourist sites are located on the coast rather than inland.

Table 58 provides summary statistics on the type of planss visited for recreation. The table shows that the seaside accounted for around 12% to 13% of visits by respondents to the Scottish Recreation Survey, 2011. These visits represent those most likely to be affected by offshore renewables.

Table 58. Places visited

Activity	2006	2007	2008
	% (Number of Visits)	% (Number of Visits)	% (Number of Visits)
A town or city	30% (22,149)	35% (27,530)	40% (35,449)
The countryside (including inland villages)	58% (43,296)	52% (40,998)	46% (40,585)
The seaside (a resort or the coast)	13% (9,592)	12% (9,692)	13% (11,529)

(Source: Scottish Recreation Survey, 2011)

Considering coastal activities in particular, Baxter et al (2011) highlight some of the areas within Scotland which provide for marine related recreation:

• The Firth of Clyde and the West Coast are renowned for sailing, with opportunities for day sailing, racing and cruising. The presence of facilities including marinas, boatyards and moorings helps increase the attractiveness of the area for this type of activity;
• Recreational sea angling occurs all around the Scottish coast, although Dumfries and Galloway, the West coast in Argyll and the North East coast are hotspots;
• Diving occurs in many areas including the Orkneys, sea lochs off the West coast and the Sound of Mull, Argyll, the Moray Firth and Northwest Scotland. Investment has recently tried to enhance diver numbers in the South East (e.g. around St Abbs Head);
• Surfing often occurs on the South East coast, although more extreme conditions are found on the Western and Northern coasts, with Thurso hosting the O'Neill Highland Open. Tiree on the West holds the Tiree Wave Classic and also provides a venue for events by the Professional Windsurfing Association;
• Canoeing and kayaking occur in coastal areas where access is available; and
• Wildlife watching is popular, with significant increases in cetacean watching in the Moray Firth documented in the past two decades. Coastal bird watching is also popular, e.g. at the Scottish Sea Bird Centre at North Berwick.

All of the marine and coastal related activities given above will have some level of interest in marine planning (Baxter et al, 2011) and hence the development of renewable energy generation. However, it should be noted that a planning decision will often be made on the basis of whether the hinterland can support the development, rather than if the marine environment can support the required use (Baxter et al, 2011). This issue will likely be critical for many offshore renewables projects.

2.16.3.2 Types of activity

People undertake a range of activities relating to the marine and coastal environment in Scotland. However, Scotland's Marine Atlas (Baxter et al, 2011) notes that there is not much standardised information on participation in marine related leisure activities. Individual groups or sectors may gather their own data, for example, the British Marine Federation ( BMF) has used estimates of participation for 2007-2009 to indicate that the five most popular marine leisure related activities in Scotland are (ibid) ^[26] ::

• Spending general leisure time at the beach: 309,250;
• Coastal walking: 230,500;
• Outdoor swimming: 224,500;
• Boating activity: 213,750; and
• Sea angling from shore or boat 139,000.

Scottish Natural Heritage ( SNH) has also worked on marine and coastal recreation in Scotland, and has determined that walking/hiking is one of the more popular activities (see Image 27 ) (Baxter et al, 2011). Note that all of the above activities have the potential to be impacted by offshore renewables; for example, those walking along the beach may be able to see turbines, whilst those boating may be affected by greater levels of boat traffic (due to crafts serving the generation devices).

Image 27. Proportion of People Undertaking Different Types of Marine and Coastal Activity

(Data from SNH reported in Baxter et al, 2011)

The SNH findings are reinforced by those of the Scottish Recreation Survey. The survey results (available for 2006 to 2008) are summarised in Table 59 by main activity undertaken. This table shows the importance of walking as a main activity ^[27] , with an increasing trend from 2006 to 2008 (73% to 78%). The Survey additionally shows that 70% used paths or a network of paths in 2006, increasing to 74% in 2007 and 76% in 2008. Of these paths, 62% (2006), 65% (2007) and 70% (2008) had signposts or way marking. This is likely to reflect the fact that walking is the second most popular choice of activity holiday in Scotland (Sport Industry Research Centre, 2008). Note however that only coastal walking is relevant to offshore renewables generation; the percentages and figures given below do not differentiate between coastal and inland walking.

Table 59. Main tourism activities

Activity	2006	2007	2008
All walking	73% (54,857)	77% (640,489)	78% (68,091)
Walking <2 miles	30% (22,357)	37% (28,716)	37% (32,456)
Walking 2-8 miles	40% (30,310)	38% (29,746)	37% (32,572)
Walking >8 miles	2% (1,320)	1% (854)	2% (1,830)
Sightseeing/visiting attractions	2% (1,360)	2% (1,210)	1% (930)
All cycling and mountain biking	4% (3,203)	4% (2,870)	3% (2,989)
Family outing	10% (7,481)	7% (5,093)	6% (5,656)

(Source: Scottish Recreation Survey, 2011)

Another popular activity in Scotland is wildlife tourism. Marine and coastal wildlife tourism defined by a recent Scottish Government study as (Scottish Government, 2010f):

• Marine - studying or viewing marine mammals from a boat; and
• Coastal - studying/viewing/enjoying wildlife on the coast, which includes viewing birds from a boat and watching marine mammals from land.

Both of these types of tourism may be affected by offshore renewable energy generation, for example, increasing numbers of boats for service activities for energy generation structures may impact the space available for tourist related craft.

The popularity of wildlife tourism in Scotland is probably partially influenced by the number of designated Marine Special Areas of Conservation ^[28] ; there are 36 sites in total covering intertidal waters, reefs, coastline and seal breeding areas. Indeed in a survey carried out by IFAW (2009), Scotland had the largest proportion of Europe's cetacean watchers with 27%. This equated to 3% of the global number of cetacean watchers, with 223,941 tourists taking part.

Marine and coastal wildlife tourism in Scotland (including cetacean related tourism) has a combined total expenditure of £160 million and total income of £92 million ( Table 60), with p.a. activity occurring in May and June (Scottish Government, 2010).

Table 60. Economic contribution by type of wildlife tourism

Area	Expenditure £ million	Income £ million
Terrestrial	114	64
Marine	63	36
Coastal	100	56
Total	277	156

(Source: Scottish Wildlife Tourism, 2011)

2.16.3.3 Expenditure and income

Tourism puts £4.5 billion turnover into the Scottish economy each year and employs around 200,000 people (Sport Industry Research Centre, 2008) ^[29] . Certain areas of the country do particularly well from tourism; the Cairngorms National Park economy receives substantial income from tourists ( RPA and Cambridge Econometrics, 2008). The popularity of walking has also brought in considerable income in the past. UK residents who visited Scotland specifically to go walking spent £125 million per year, made 400,000 trips and generated 2.7 million bed-nights in the period 2001-2003, (this excludes spending by overseas visitors) (Sport Industry Research Centre, 2008). Although these figures are rather dated, and cover all walking as opposed to just coastal walking, they indicate that the activity is likely to be making an important contribution to Scotland's tourism economy.

The tourism figures above may also provide an indication of the value of some of the benefits from wild land, wilderness and tranquillity. Although McMorran et al (2008) note that few studies enable the benefits from wild land to be identified, they comment that recreation and tourism data do provide some information. For example, in the Highlands and Islands Enterprise area, wild landscapes accounted for up to 19.9 million day visits in 2003 (ibid). These were associated with an expenditure of £411-£751 million (McMorran et al, 2008). It is likely that some of this total can be allocated to coastal tourism and thus the value of seascapes ^[30] .

Other studies considering tourist expenditure include the Scottish Recreation Survey. This provides an indication of the mean expenditure during trips (across all those who spent money) and is shown in Table 61.

Table 61. Mean tourism expenditure

Type of Expenditure	2006	2007	2008
A town or city	£19.47	£21.55	£18.24
The countryside (including inland villages)	£33.82	£35.49	£24.31
The seaside (a resort or the coast)	£38.25	£45.45	£40.64

(Source: Scottish Recreation Survey, 2011)

2.16.3.4 Current and past trends

Ecotourism

The Scottish Government study on wildlife tourism (2010) found the industry to be growing, even in times of recession. There was a 57% increase in visitor numbers in 2009 compared with the previous year. Of the business owners surveyed, 85% expected trade to increase. The decline in more traditional p.a.tices such as fisheries is also likely to have caused a shift to the marine leisure and tourism industry (Joint Marine Programme, 2004). Cetacean related tourism in particular saw huge growth in the last decade, and a 2008 survey found that the number of whale watchers had almost doubled since 1998, with an average growth rate of 8.5% in the last 10 years ( IFAW, 2009).

Popularity for wildlife tourism can be related to the increasing number of wildlife programmes, such as 'Springwatch', 'Coast' and Monty Hall's 'Great Escape' on the West Scottish coast (Scottish Government, 2010). Participation in wildlife watching has become less of a specialist interest and other activities such as photography have also become more widely available, possibly due to advances in cameras and their mass availability. Another important development is the availability of online booking, making it easy for last minute trips to be organised. The increasing awareness of the natural environment is also a factor promoting growth of this sector and developments such as Wild Scotland ^[31] have successfully increased the profile of Scotland's natural resources. Respondents regard Scotland's wildlife resources as the single most important strength for tourists' reasons to VisitScotland (Scottish Government, 2010). This is likely to have knock-on impacts for the economy since wild landscapes may provide greater economic and employment benefits than agriculture and forestry combined (McMorran et al, 2008).

Cultural Events

Cultural events can also attract tourists. Image 28 shows the proportion of the population who attended a cultural event in Scotland in the previous 12 months (2007-2008), while Image 29 shows the percentage who took part in a cultural event. The Image shows high attendance and participation rates across the regions (with the columns giving the minimum response across local authorities and the error bars, the maximum response).

Image 28 . Proportion of the Population Who Have Attended a Cultural Event in the Past 12 Months (2007-2008)

Image 29. Proportion of the Population Who Have Taken Part in a Cultural Event in the Past 12 Months (2007-2008)

Future Trends in Tourism

Tourism within Scotland is supported by VisitScotland, whose aim is to "maximise the economic benefits of tourism to Scotland ^[32] ". VisitScotland's strategy has five objectives including:

• Maximise the sustainable economic benefit of tourism in Scotland;
• Inspire through information provision;
• Deliver quality assurance;
• Work in partnership; and
• Establish Scotland as perfect stage for events.

The organisation is currently running a new corporate campaign entitled "The Winning Years". This builds on a series of eight events over the years 2012-2014, with each year having a particular theme as follows:

• 2012 - Year of Creative Scotland;
• 2013 - Year of Natural Scotland; and
• 2014 - Year of Homecoming Scotland.

The aims of the campaign are to encourage enthusiasm, support and investment in tourism in Scotland, and to ensure that tourism businesses benefit from the opportunities available. Earlier estimates have indicated that visitor numbers to Scotland are forecast to grow at an average of 2.3% per annum from 2005 to 2015 ( RPA and Cambridge Econometrics, 2008), with a 50% increase in gross tourism revenue by 2015 (from 2005) (Scottish Executive, 2006a). However, it is likely that any major developments in tourism in the short term will be affected by this campaign, and also current economic conditions. Indeed, in 2010, overnight visitors to Scotland from the United Kingdom made 12.4 million trips and spent a total of over £2.6 billion (VisitScotland, 2011). These figures represented a decline of 1% in the number of trips and a 4% decrease in expenditure when compared with 2009 data (VisitScotland, 2011). Interestingly, for the same year, international tourism showed a decline in trips of 8% but a growth in expenditure of 6% (VisitScotland, 2011). Therefore, short term tourism trends are uncertain.

Considering trends in particular areas of tourism, the Scottish Recreation Survey has shown that since 2004, there has been an increase in the number of shorter duration visits made closer to home ( TNS, 2011). In addition, the percentage of visits taken on foot grew from 50% to 64% in 2008 ( TNS, 2010). If these trends are to continue, then it is likely that in the future more tourism will occur close to centres of population and at sites which are easily accessible. Indeed, Brown et al (2010) note that the most likely trend in future outdoor recreation is that there will be a greater range of activities available, but these will be concentrated in a smaller number of locations, dependent amongst other factors on their accessibility. This suggests that areas which are hotspots for particular activities (e.g. surfing) will be the ones which flourish. However, it should be noted that external factors, such as global climate change may also impact tourism. For example, climate change may affect the distribution and range of cetacean species and thus wildlife watching tourism in Scotland (Lambert et al, 2011). However as such tourism develops, it is important that proper guidelines and management are enforced, so that the growing trend in recreational activities involving the marine and coastal environment does not compromise or destroy the assets which attract so many visitors (Joint Marine Programme, 2004).

2.16.3.5 Employment

Marine and coastal tourism generated 4,386 full-time positions in 2009 ( Table 62). It should be noted that wildlife tourism supports mainly small enterprises, which employ large numbers of seasonal volunteers; 10% use more than 16 volunteers (Scottish Government, 2010).

Table 62. Employment generated from wildlife tourism

Area	Employment FTE Employees
Terrestrial	3,061
Marine	1705
Coastal	2681
Total	7446

(Source: Scottish Government, 2010)

2.17 Waste Disposal

2.17.1 Definition of Sector/Activity

This sector includes the disposal of material, dredged from ports, harbours and marinas, into the marine environment. This type of waste disposal is only allowed where the material cannot be used beneficially, for example to replenish beaches or in construction projects.

2.17.2 Description of Information Sources

A range of information has been accessed to inform this baseline, including published reports, spatial data layers and other specific information provided through stakeholder engagement ( Table 63).

Table 63. Information sources for waste disposal baseline

Scale	Information Available	Date	Source
UK	Dredge disposal sites and volumes disposed of in the OSPAR Maritime Area	2009	OSPAR, 2009: http://www.ospar.org/documents/dbase/publications/p00433_JAMP%20Dumping%20Assessment.pdf
Scotland	Potential future port developments	2009	National Planning Framework for Scotland (Scottish Government, 2009b).
Scotland	Locations and tonnage at open disposal sites	2010	Marine Scotland

2.17.2.1 Data limitations

There is no central source of information on turnover, GVA or employment associated with dredge spoil disposal (Baxter et al, 2011).

2.17.3 National Overview of Current Activity

Location and intensity of activity

In Scotland there are 66 'open' dredge disposal sites routinely used for disposal of material arising from the dredging of ports, harbours and marinas (see Figure 29). Open disposal sites are present in every SORER, with the highest number of open disposal sites currently in the East SORER and the lowest number in the South West SORER. A further 50 sites are closed (not used for at least ten years) or disused (not used for at least five years) (Baxter et al, 2011). During 2009, a total of 2,901,499 tonnes was dredged and deposited at sea, out of a total of 5,743,882 that was allowed under licence. Most disposal occurs in the sea areas adjacent to the highest densities of human populations and industry (Baxter et al, 2011).

2.17.4 Economic value and employment

It is not possible to calculate the GVA or the number of jobs associated with dredge spoil disposal (Baxter et al, 2011). However, the maritime transport sector, is reliant on shipping access to the coastline and without dredging of navigational channels (supported by disposal) this sector would either be limited or face costly alternative means of disposal ( UKMMAS, 2010). The activity is therefore an important enabler for the much larger shipping and ports sectors.

In order for ports (and marinas, quays etc.) to be able to dispose of their dredged material they are required to apply for a disposal licence which grants them such permission. The ports are charged for their application and in the period between 2005 and 2009, 112 one year licences were issued in Scotland and their issue generated revenue of £276,035 to Marine Scotland (Baxter et al, 2011).

2.17.4.1 Historical trends

In Scotland, the number of dredged material disposal licences between 2005 and 2009 ranged from about 20 to 30, with the highest number of licences being issued in 2006 (values estimated from Baxter et al, 2011). The amount of dredged material disposed off (as wet weight tonnage) over this time period remained relatively constant (range approximately 2 to 3 million tonnes wet) with the lowest tonnage disposed of in 2006 (values estimated from Baxter et al, 2011).

2.17.4.2 Future trends

Dredging and disposal will continue to be undertaken and it is unlikely that the demand for disposal will decrease ( UKMMAS, 2010; Baxter et al, 2011). The Scottish National Planning Framework 2 (Scottish Government, 2009b) identifies future port developments, which may require dredging, at the following ports:

• Grangemouth - to accommodate substantial increases in freight movements;
• Rosyth - additional container freight capacity through deep water berthing;
• Scapa Flow - deep water transhipment facilities;
• Hunterston - deeplansr container transhipment hub and maritime construction and decommissioning yard;
• Loch Ryan - additional port capacity, introduction of larger vessels;
• Cromarty Firth - development of existing service base facilities and sheltered moorings for offshore Oil and Gas industry; and
• Nigg - potential as a facility for decommissioning Oil and Gas installations and the manufacture and support services required by the renewable energy industry.

Such development of existing ports, or dredging to re-open old ports could result in an increased amount of dredge material for disposal and hence a potential need to develop new sea disposal sites if existing sites reach capacity (Baxter et al, 2011). However, there is an aim to minimise disposal into the marine environment, including the re-use of dredge material in land reclamation or beach re-nourishment if the dredge material is uncontaminated and physically suitable (Baxter et al, 2011).

In addition, the National Renewables Infrastructure Plan ( NRIP) has identified sites which, with investment in site infrastructure, would be well plansd to support the offshore wind supply chain. Such infrastructure development may include dredging to increase the water depth at quayside to accommodate installation or delivery vessels. The first plans 'best fit locations' to be focussed on in the immediate future and the more 'medium term' locations, which may support the wind and/or wave and tidal sectors identified in the NRIP are shown in Table 64.

Table 64. First plans and medium term NRIP sites identified for potential development

Site	SORER	Type Site	Industry Supporting
Leith	E	First Phase & Medium	Offshore Wind
Dundee	E	First Phase & Medium	Offshore Wind
Nigg	NE	First Phase & Medium	Offshore Wind
Energy Park Fife at Methill	E	First Phase & Medium	Offshore Wind & Wave and Tidal
Aberdeen	NE	First Phase & Medium	Offshore Wind
Hunterston	W	First Phase & Medium	Offshore Wind
Arnish	NW	First Phase & Medium	Offshore Wind & Wave and Tidal
Campbeltown/Machrihansih	W	First Phase & Medium	Offshore Wind & Wave and Tidal
Ardersier	NE	First Phase & Medium	Offshore Wind
Peterhead	NE	First Phase & Medium	Offshore Wind
Kishorn	NW	First Phase & Medium	Offshore Wind
Inverclyde	W	Medium	Offshore Wind & Wave and Tidal
Burntisland	E	Medium	Offshore Wind
Rosyth	E	Medium	Offshore Wind
Montrose	E	Medium	Offshore Wind
Grangemouth	E	Medium	Offshore Wind
Highland Deeplansn	NE	Medium	Offshore Wind
Ayr	W	Medium	Offshore Wind
Troon	W	Medium	Offshore Wind
Stranraer/Cairnryan	SW	Medium	Offshore Wind & Wave and Tidal
Sella Ness	N	Medium	Wave and Tidal
Lerwick	N	Medium	Wave and Tidal
Lyness	N	Medium	Wave and Tidal
Hatston (Kirkwall)	N	Medium	Wave and Tidal
Scrabster	N	Medium	Wave and Tidal
Wick	NE	Medium	Wave and Tidal

(Source: Scottish Enterprise & Highlands & Islands Enterprise, 2010a, 2010b)

2.18 Water Sports

2.18.1 Definition of Sector/Activity

Water sports are recreational activities undertaken on or immersed in a body of water. The main marine water sports undertaken in Scotland are recreational angling, surfing, windsurfing, sea kayaking, small sail boat activities (such as dinghy sailing) and scuba diving ( BMF et al., 2009; Marine Scotland, 2011a). Recreational boating activity in larger vessels such as yachts is covered in Section 2.12. General tourism is described in other sections of this report as the interactions and issues in relation to marine renewable developments are often distinctly different. There is some possibility of a degree of double counting using this approach but not to the extent that it materially affects the results of the study, i.e. a variety of studies focusing specifically on recreation provide a good understanding on current value, distribution and intensity of the sector in the SORERs.

2.18.2 Description of Information Sources

A variety of different information sources has been reviewed to inform this baseline, including published reports and papers, spatial layers and information provided through stakeholder engagement ( Table 65).

Table 65. Data sources used in the water sports chapter

Scale	Information Available	Date	Source
Scotland	Number of sea anglers	2006-2007	Radford et al (2009)
Scotland	Economic impact of sea angling (by region)	No date	Radford et al (2009)
	Angler days by resident, by origin, by type (short, boat, charter)	No date
	Expenditure	No date
	Trends (days fished, competitiveness of region)	No date
	Output of DREAM® model gives multipliers (associated with angling)	No date
Scotland	Estimated regional sea angling activity and expenditure (also for Scotland)	No date	Baxter et al (2011)
	Origin and destination of overnight fishing trips to Scotland	2006-2007	Radford et al (2009)
Scotland	Statistics on water sports participation levels	2009	BMF (2009)
Scotland	Surfing locations	Date not stated	SAS (2009) and the 'Stormrider Guides' ( http://www.lowpressure.co.uk)
Scotland	Diving locations	Date not stated	Baxter et al 2011
Scotland	Spatial distribution of various water sports	2006	Land Use Consultants, 2007.

2.18.2.1 Data limitations

Limited information on water sports related expenditure currently exists at a regional level within Scotland. While some data on intensity and spatial distribution exists for certain activities in Scotland information for other activities is not as available or just consists of broad descriptions. More detailed information based on collecting quantified data is recommended. Further guidance on suitable techniques for collecting this type of data is provided in the ' MEDIN Data Guideline for the Leisure and Recreation Sector' ( MEDIN, 2011).

Information on historical and future trends in this report has mainly been based on worldwide and UK trends as specific data for Scotland is limited.

2.18.3 National Overview of Current Activity

2.18.3.1 Location and intensity of activity

Indicative estimates of the number of people participating in water sports activities in Scotland have been taken from the BMF Water sports and Leisure Participation Survey 2009 ( BMF et al., 2009). This report estimated that 52,869 adults (> 16 years) participated in surfing, 23,952 adults participated in windsurfing, 12,443 in scuba diving, 37,416 participated in canoeing ^[33] and 23,937 in small sail boat activities in the Border and Scotland ITV regions ^[34] . Radford et al (2009) estimated that 125,188 adults and 23,445 children went sea angling in Scotland in 2008.

Separately, Surfers Against Sewage ( SAS, 2010) conducted an initial study into the number of recreational water users in Scotland in 2010 and estimated that there were approximately 300,000 recreational water users (this number included surfers, windsurfers, and kayakers amongst a range of other activities) using the coastal waters of Scotland. A summary of the distribution of different water sports, highlighting key areas activities in Scotland is described below.

A survey looking into marine and coastal recreation in Scotland commissioned by SNH found that overall, around 87% of all recorded visits to the coast were day trips. Above average proportions of short-breaks or weekend visits were made by sea and shoreline anglers, and divers and snorkelers (Land Use Consultants, 2007).

Recreational Angling

Sea angling is carried out along most of the Scottish coastline mostly within 6nm (The Scottish Sea Angling Conservation Network ( SSACN) The Scottish Sea Angling Conservation Network's ( SSACN) Offshore Wind SEA consultation response, available on the Scottish Government website: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2010/11/03131226/0 ^[35] . The highest densities of anglers are found in the more heavily populated areas of coast around Glasgow, Clyde, Edinburgh and Fife (Baxter et al. 2011). Sea angling launch points are also heavily concentrated along the Argyll Coast and Islands, Solway Firth, Firth of Clyde, Firth of Tay, North Coast, and East Gra mp.a. Coast (Land Use Consultants, 2007).

Surfing and Windsurfing

A variety of different types of water craft are used to surf waves including surfboards, bodyboards, windsurfing boards and kayaks ( SAS, 2009). Many surfers are willing to travel large distances to undertake surfing at good quality spots (Lazorow, 2009). Therefore, high quality waves located in remote areas could bring economic benefits to a rural area through travel, accommodation and subsidence expenditure of visiting surfers. Surfing is focused around the far North coast of Scotland (particularly around Thurso), the North coast from Buckie to Fraserburgh and locations down the East coast including Fife, and from North Berwick to the border. Other locations include the Kintyre peninsula, Islay, Tiree, the Western Isles (particularly the West coast of Lewis) and the North coast of Orkney (Baxter et al., 2011; Land Use Consultants, 2007), see Figure 30.

Sea Kayaking

The majority of sea kayaking is undertaken close inshore, exploring interesting aspects of the coast such as sea caves, inlets and wildlife. Safety issues and a lack of interesting features in general prevent kayaking further offshore. However, open crossings (between two points such as a headland and an offshore island), often through strong tidal currents are regularly undertaken by more experienced sea kayakers. Unlike other water sports activities which are often undertaken in relatively discrete areas (such as a surf spot or diving site), sea kayaking has the potential to be undertaken along much of the Scottish coast and is only constrained by the availability of suitable launching spots such as beaches or sli p.a.s. Popular kayaking areas include the Inner Hebrides, East Gra mp.a. Coast, Firth of Clyde and Firth of Forth (Land Use Consultants, 2007), see Figure 31. The Scottish Canoeing Association undertook an online survey of sea kayakers in 2011. The survey had a total of 392 respondents. The survey found that the most popular areas for sea kayaking in Scotland was Arisaig, Knoydart, Sound of Sleat, Argyll Islands, Oban to Fort William and the Clyde.

Scuba Diving

The most popular locations for scuba diving around Scotland are Scapa Flow, Orkney (considered to be one of the best wreck diving areas in the world) and the Voluntary Marine Reserve of St Abbs and Eyemouth off the Berwickshire coastline. The islands of the inner Hebrides, the Firth of Forth and coast to the Scottish border, all of the East coast from North of Dundee to the Dornoch Firth are also popular diving destinations (Land Use Consultants, 2007; Baxter et al, 2011; Scottish Executive, 2007; UKMMAS, 2010), see Figure 32.

Small Sail Boat Activity

Small sail boat activity is defined as dinghies, day boat or other small kee lboats, usually taken out of water at the end of use. Small sail boat activity is widespread along the Scottish coast but the Firth of Clyde and Firth of Forth are noted as a particularly good plans to learn to sail in dinghies (Land Use Consultants, 2007), see Figure 33.

2.18.3.2 Economic value and employment

Radford et al (2009) estimated a total expenditure of £141 million on sea angling in 2008. Sea angling in Scotland also supported 3148 FTE jobs in 2008, representing an income of £69.67million ^[36] (Radford et al., 2009).

There is limited data concerning the expenditure and employment levels of surfing-related tourism ( SAS, 2009). At a UK level the economic value of the surf industry was estimated at £200 million in 2007 ( UKMMAS 2010). The total number of people participating in surfing in the UK in 2009 was estimated to be 645,827 ( BMF et al., 2009). If it is assumed that the Scottish value is pro rata to the estimated number of individuals engaging in surfing activity in Scotland, this would give a Scottish value of around £16.4m p.a.

'Informed opinion suggests that sea kayaking, particularly on the West coast, and surf kayaking could be worth an estimated £0.5 million per annum'. This statement was based on a study carried out by British Waterways and reported in Bryden et al. (2010), in which average paddlers in the Great Glen (2,500 per annum) spent approx £97 per day locally on overnight visits, or approximately £730K per annum.

A survey commissioned by SNH reviewing marine and coastal recreation in Scotland identified the amount typically spent per year on equipment for water sports activities ( Table 66). The highest average amounts spent were for sea angling (£1375) and shoreline angling (£860). Kayaking and canoeing, sub-aqua and snorkelling, and windsurfing each had an average spend of between £635 and £645, whilst surfing had a lower average spend of £290 per year. In total, sea angling and shoreline angling accounted for around half of the total spending recorded by the survey. However due to the small sample sizes these results are subject to high levels of standard error and it should be noted that these figures are generally overestimates (Land Use Consultants, 2007).

Table 66. Total and average annual spending, by water sport activity

Activity	Total Spending (£)	Average Spending (£)
Sea angling	131960	1375
Shoreline angling	70575	861
Kayaking	36100	645
Sub aqua/ snorkelling	33935	640
Windsurfing	6345	635
Surfing	5800	290

(Source: Land Use Consultants, 2007)

No national employment figures derived from the Business Register and Employment Survey (using UK SIC codes) have been included for activities relating to water sports. This is because the codes are for the entire sports sector and don't permit disaggregation to a useful level. However in general the largest numbers of employees for these activities are concentrated in the East and West Regions, which reflect the higher population concentrations in these regions.

2.18.3.3 Historical trends

In a global context, the popularity of water sports and related industries have grown dramatically and have been seen as an increasingly important aspect of the marine leisure and tourism market in recent years (Lazarow, 2008). For example, the surf industry grew by an estimated 10% globally from 2004-2008 ( SIMA, 2009).

Factors such as increasingly active lifestyles, greater leisure time and affluence have combined to enhance the attractiveness of sports and physical recreation for the tourist (Cornwall Enterprise, 2001). Furthermore, ongoing technological improvements in, for example, wetsuit technologies mean that people are now able to utilise marine waters for recreational activities further into the winter months.

In a UK context, the participation in most marine leisure and recreation activities has stayed relatively stable or showed an increase in recent years ( BMF et al., 2009). For example participation in canoeing increased by 0.6%, small sail boat activities by 0.26%, windsurfing 0.19% and surfing 0.29% from 2007-2008 ( BMF et al., 2009).

Sea angling activity ap p.a.s to have stabilised over the past decade. In 1970, sea anglers fished on average 36 times a year falling to about 12 times in 1992 and 11 in 2002. Most anglers have also observed a decrease in fish catches and declines in the size of fish caught over the past 15 years ( Defra, 2004). To some extent anglers have adapted to changing conditions by switching locations, travelling further and using more powerful boats to extend their search.

2.18.3.4 Future trends

The leisure and recreation sector has experienced large growth in a number of diverse areas over the past decade. The growth and stability of the water sports sector in Scotland is heavily dependant of the general health of the UK economy. A strong economy means that consumers have more disposable income and are more inclined to spend money on this sector than when the economy is weaker. The recent UK economic downturn may lead to a reduction in such activities but in the long-term the sector is expected to continue to grow.

There is little information on future levels of recreational angling activity. Levels of activity are likely to vary in response to trends in the overall economy, changes in fish stocks as a result of improved fisheries management and changes in fish distributions in response to climate change. The nature and direction of these changes remains unclear.