State of the economy: February 2020

Global Summary

Global growth is forecast to strengthen in 2020.

• The IMF estimate global growth to have slowed in 2019 to 2.9%, its slowest pace of growth since 2009.
• Slower growth over the year has been relatively broad based in Advanced and Emerging Market & Developing Economies and particularly notable in the manufacturing sector.
• There are signals that growth is stabilising and sentiment has improved, supported by factors such as the US-China phase 1 trade agreement.
• The IMF forecast global growth to strengthen in 2020 to 3.3%, however downside risks such as trade uncertainty remain, alongside new risks such as the Coronavirus.

US economic growth forecast to ease in 2020.

• US GDP grew by 0.5% in Q4 2019 and grew 2.3% over 2019 as a whole, slowing slightly from 2.5% growth in 2018.
• US unemployment remained close to its record low rate (3.5%) in January 2020 rising slightly to 3.6%.
• US CPI inflation picked up to 2.3% in December, its highest rate since October 2018, with increased energy costs a key contributor to the rise over the month.
• The IMF forecast US GDP growth to slow to 2.0% in 2020 and 1.7% in 2021 reflecting an assumed transition from recent fiscal expansion to a more fiscally neutral position.

Euro Area GDP growth forecast to pick-up mildly in 2020.

• Euro Area GDP growth slowed in 2019 to 1.2%, down from 1.9% growth in 2018.
• Euro Area unemployment was 7.4% in December, down from 7.5% in November and at the lowest rate recorded since mid-2008.
• Euro Area inflation picked up further to 1.4% in January 2020, having fallen to 0.7% in October 2019, with the highest rate increase from food, alcohol and tobacco.
• The IMF forecast Euro Area GDP growth to pick-up mildly in 2020 to 1.3%, supported by stronger growth in Germany.