State of the economy: September 2019

Footnotes

1. https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/PubGDP/GDP2019Q2

2. https://www.gov.scot/publications/state-economy/pages/10/

3. The modelling is undertaken using the Scottish Government Global Econometric Model (SGGEM).

4. https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/PubRSI/RSIS2019Q2

5. https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/QNA2019Q1

6. https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/RTS/Pages/default.aspx

7. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/ESR/Issues/2019/07/03/2019-external-sector-report A 10 percent depreciation (vis-à-vis all currencies) improves a country's trade balance by about 0.3 percent of GDP in the near term, on average, with most of the effects coming through a contraction of imports.

8. The modelling is undertaken using the Scottish Government Global Econometric Model (SGGEM). This is one of several models that the Scottish Government is using to enhance its trade modelling capability. Further details on trade modelling can be found in the Scottish Government commissioned feasibility study (undertaken by the Fraser of Allander Institute with the National Institute of Economic and Social Research) published alongside this State of the Economy report.

9. 2015 Q4 is used as the depreciation of the pound in 2016 Q1 indicates that a potential leave result was starting to be incorporated in exchange rates.

10. https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Labour-Market

11. https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/951e4e6734644a9cbcc205a3f6d4feaf

12. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-real-time-information-experimental-statistics

13. https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/PROD19Q1

14. https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/1af9bcb92d8d4bbbb05d106ddeffdad2

15. https://app.emarketeer.com/resources/12144/My_Documents/QR_Q1_2019/1072_Scot_Eng_QR_0919.pdf

16. https://www.scottishchambers.org.uk/press-releases/quarterly-economic-indicator/

17. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/inflation-report/2019/august-2019

18. http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/SCSI

19. https://www.gov.scot/publications/deal-brexit-economic-implications-scotland/

20. https://obr.uk/frr/fiscal-risks-report-july-2019/

21. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/letter/2019/letter-from-the-governor-to-the-tsc-regarding-updated-brexit-scenarios

22. https://fraserofallander.org/ Blog: What could No-Deal mean for the Scottish Economy? (9 September 2019).

23. Scottish Fiscal Commission (http://www.fiscalcommission.scot/publications/scotlands-economic-and-fiscal-forecasts/scotlands-economic-and-fiscal-forecasts-may-2019/); Fraser of Allander Institute (https://www.strath.ac.uk/business/economics/fraserofallanderinstitute/publications/commentary/); EY ITEM Club (https://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssetsPI/ey-scottish-item-club-summer-update-2019/$FILE/EY-Scottish-ITEM-Club-Summer-update-2019.pdf ) PWC (https://www.pwc.co.uk/services/economics-policy/insights/uk-economic-outlook.html).