Publication - Research and analysis

State of the economy: September 2020

Published: 29 September 2020
Directorate: Chief Economist Directorate
Topic: Economy
ISBN: 9781800041103

This report summarises recent developments in the global, UK and Scottish economies and provides an analysis of the performance of, and outlook for, the Scottish economy.

Supporting documents

Footnotes

1. Source: https://www.gov.scot/publications/bics-weighted-scotland-estimates-data-to-wave-12/. More recent unweighted ONS data suggests the proportion currently trading has risen to 98% in September. https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/datasets/businessimpactofcovid19surveybicsresults

2. Source: https://www.gov.scot/publications/first-estimate-of-gdp-2020-q2/

3. Source: https://www.gov.scot/publications/monthly-gdp-july-2020/

4. OBR Fiscal Sustainability Report can be found here.

5. SFC Fiscal Update can be found here.

6. Reports on the Bank of England's Select Committee attendance can be found here.

7. The SG August Monthly Economic Brief can be found here.

8. Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/uk-overseas-trade-statistics-and-regional-trade-statistics#current-releases

9. Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/datasets/businessimpactofcovid19surveybicsresults

10. Source: https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/8007eeaf961a48bcb6938ef0ae66c9e8

11. Source: https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/e1200acef85f4bbdaf11fa6f751b56ec

12. Source: https://www.gov.scot/publications/monthly-business-turnover-index-july-2020/

13. Source: https://www.addleshawgoddard.com/globalassets/insights/general/scottish-business-monitor-summer-2020/scottish-business-monitor-q2-2020.pdf

14. Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/datasets/businessimpactofcovid19surveybicsresults

15. Source: https://www.gov.scot/publications/labour-market-monthly-briefing-september-2020/

16. Costs for the new wage subsidy scheme are not currently available and therefore not included in the Chart.

17. Estimates are expressed in terms of 2019 GDP. The final allocation of the EU recovery package still needs to be determined as it is partly dependent on economic performance in 2020 and 2021. The estimate in the charts are based on the latest available European Commission's forecasts from May 2020. See Bruegel, 23 July.

18. The chart shows new policies and measures introduced in response to COVID-19. Some countries, such as Germany and Sweden, already had forms of wage support schemes in place before the pandemic. Support delivered through these schemes will not be included except for where schemes have been expanded in response to COVID-19.

19. Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/bulletins/earningsandemploymentfrompayasyouearnrealtimeinformationuk/september2020

20. Source: https://www.gfk.com/en-gb/press/UK-Consumer-Confidence-improves-two-points-in-September?hsLang=en-gb

21. Source: https://home.kpmg/uk/en/home/media/press-releases/2020/09/no-return-to-growth-as-recovery-stalls.html

22. Sources: http://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/; https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020; https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/report/2020/monetary-policy-report-financial-stability-report-august-2020; https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/forecasts-for-the-uk-economy-september-2020