Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) of the Scottish Climate Change Bill: Consultation Proposals: Environmental Report

Business as usual

Electricity:

Continued use of fossil fuels for a significant share of electricity supply.

Need to replace existing fossil power stations to:

a) Replace old assets

b) Meet rising demand

Gas:

Continued use of gas as the main heating fuel.

Oil:

Continued use, blending with biofuels.

Energy consumption will continue to rise although technological advances may mitigate this to a certain extent.

Increased consumption will drive supply and increase emissions.

Existing fossil fuel fired power stations will need to be replaced with time.

Energy consumption increases until price rises prompt efficiency measures.

Car use increases until fuel price rises limit mobility.

Potential shortage of supply if energy generating stations and infrastructure not upgraded / replaced.

Cheapest options (including coal firing) rather than best environmental solutions will prevail.

Impacts on reliability of systems of adaptation is not considered.

Electricity:

Coal is mainly imported, with Scottish production mainly open cast - not in short supply at global level.

Gas:

North Sea gas supplies are high relative to Scottish demand, but are modest relative to UK demand.

Oil:

N Sea oil supplies are high relative to Scottish demand, but are modest relative to UK demand.

Fossil fuel consumption will continue to increase.

Shortage of fuel supplies.

Fossil fuels will become more scarce and expensive.

We will continue to be dependent on volatile nations for our fuel needs.

Increase in prices

Goods will become more expensive as fossil fuels become more costly to extract.

Prices passed onto customer / Increased inflation.

Electricity:

CO2 emissions continue from power generation and gas use.

SO2 and NOx will reduce under Business As Usual to meet the Large Combustion Plant Directive targets.

Gas:

Emissions from extraction and use for heating continue.

Oil:

Emissions from extraction and use for transport continue.

If existing technologies are retained, unit emissions could improve though these may be offset by increased production.

Emissions from petrochemical refineries will continue to compromise local air quality.

"Conventional" energy supply sources retained, emissions and waste only reduce slowly if at all

Wastes will continue to be produced in large volumes (e.g. ash).

Emissions from fossil fuel burning will continue.

Electricity:

Minimal changes:

• Land for new/replacement fossil power stations.
• Continued/increased open cast coal.

Gas:

No identified impact.

Oil:

Continued exploration, move to Atlantic Ocean sites.

Similar use of space.

Climate change will eventually impact on physical space and drive land use change.

Habitats could be lost and material assets could be compromised.

Land use changes occur due to wider effects of climate change.

Most are detrimental due to the accelerated rate of change associated with changes to temperature, precipitation etc.

Emission Reduction Measures

Policy/ Behavioural

Electricity:

Need planning and investment systems in place, Renewables Obligation, credits for Carbon Capture & Storage etc.

Gas and oil:

Need to find alternative fuels/ markets. (e.g. switch to biofuels, electric vehicles) New business plan for sector.

Feed-in systems and tariffs required for renewable sources where surplus energy produced at domestic or community levels can feed into the national grid system.

Renewable producer subsidies to encourage development in the sector.

Statutory agreement of sectoral contributions to overall targets is required to focus action.

The cost of carbon should be realistically integrated into energy costs and thereby incentivise use of renewables.

Strengthening the Renewables Obligation would further drive the sector.

Funding of research and development for new energy streams would speed up implementation.

Strengthening Pollution Prevention and Control ( PPC) regulations to place stricter requirements on energy efficiency.

Energy consumption reduces greatly by reducing demand and more efficient energy use.

Required behavioural changes have implications for the organisation and operation of society, business.

Community solutions to energy, emissions and other consequent issues are prevalent.

Energy efficiency measures will become more common place.

Improved use of most efficient vehicles and transport methods.

Electricity:

Statutory sectoral contributions to emissions reductions imply a general reduction in raw material use.

Materials should be sourced using procurement systems that place high value on carbon emission reductions and carbon accounting.

There may be a need for development of new procurement systems, with robust means of assessment in terms of comparative carbon impacts.

Legislation could be introduced to place an imperative on energy producers to assess the GHG impact of their procurement systems and suppliers.

New procurement systems could be subject to Life Cycle Assessment ( LCA)/ Strategic Environmental Assessment ( SEA).

Microgeneration systems should be subject to LCA, with focus on carbon payback period

Greater awareness leads to more efficient use of raw materials meaning fewer emissions through reduced waste, transport etc.

More sustainable resources investigated with substitution of less sustainable options

Increase recycled materials use in development of new infrastructure and fitting of energy efficiency products.

Need to improve understanding of long term impacts of consumption.

Electricity:

The existing PPC regime can be utilised to prevent avoidable pollution, and protect the air, water and soil environments.

Waste management legislation should seek to avoid generation of unnecessary waste streams or to divert the stream appropriately. This could be particularly important for biomass energy generation which has the potential to generate large quantities of biodegradable waste.

Carbon reduction implies waste reduction, and reduction of embodied energy within waste streams.

Improved emissions performance through reduced per capita consumption.

Waste from replacement of old goods/cars etc.

Electricity:

Increased land use for wind farms, increased land use for biomass.

Use of geological storage for CO2, pipelines for CO2

Gas, Oil:

Some redundant rigs, hazardous waste disposal.

The planning system should steer the development of renewable capacity.

There is potential for the planning regime to fast-track large scale renewables projects.

Locational guidance is already available for renewable developments though more detailed guidance is needed for biomass, particularly in light of the potential air quality issue.

Natural/historical heritage legislation should prevent deterioration from development.

The need to minimise emissions from transport leads to new models for urban and rural development of all kinds.

Similar use of space.

Emissions Reduction Measures

Technical/ Financial

Electricity:

Increase all forms of renewable energy for power generation.

Use of CCS if fossil fuel to continue.

Legacy nuclear power, CCS or renewable sources such as tidal energy for base load generation.

Gas:

Re use of redundant gas routes - e.g. for heat mains

Encourage gas collection from chemical plant over flaring where possible.

Improve supply and distribution efficiency to minimise waste

Use of renewable heat and power (solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, bioenergy)

Combined heat and power

Upgrades to grid system to facilitate input from large scale renewables

Waste streams should be utilised where possible for power generation

Energy cost per unit increases.

Energy demand decreases greatly

Greatly increased use of renewable energy sources and technologies

Energy demand "designed out" of society

Improved energy generation systems and technologies for transport including diversification from coal and gas firing.

Electricity:

Reduction in Scottish coal extraction.

Gas:

Interconnection of gas networks may mean that N Sea production continues to supply other markets.

Oil:

Fuel switching from coal to gas

Materials should be sourced using procurement systems which place high value in carbon emission reductions.

There may be a need for development of new procurement systems, with novel means of assessing them in terms of their comparative carbon impacts.

Life cycle assessment of alternatives should be carried out to establish the efficacy of new technologies for delivering carbon emission savings.

Significant financial investments required for the development of a low carbon economy.

Low carbon homes and buildings require changes to building practice, greater use of pre-fabricated components

New industries develop associated with resource / carbon efficiency.

Some specific semi-conductor materials for photovoltaic technology may increase in price if material supply limited.

Increased use of biofuels and pressures on production methods and ecosystems may be significant.

Improved efficiency in energy production and increased use of wind and hydro power.

Consumption of materials required for new infrastructure will add burden.

Electricity:

Major reduction in all emissions from reduction in fossil fuel burn.

Gas:

Reduction in emissions from production & transport (pipeline compressors)

Oil:

Early adoption of carbon capture and storage

The existing PPC regime (or a stricter version of it) should be utilised to prevent avoidable pollution, and protect the air, water and soil environments.

Carbon capture plants could require an amendment to the regime depending on their environmental impact.

Waste management legislation should seek to avoid generation of unnecessary waste streams or to divert the stream appropriately.

There is potential for generation of significant waste which must be dealt with appropriately.

Pollution associated with conventional energy generation decreases greatly.

Local emissions issues from use of biomass require careful attention.

Waste from de-commissioning, impacts on water management for new power fuels and systems.

Electricity

The planning system should steer the development of renewable capacity.

There is potential for the planning regime to fast-track large scale projects.

Locational guidance is already available for renewable developments.

Natural/historical heritage legislation is probably sufficiently robust to prevent deterioration from development.

Energy generation largely from low energy density sources, therefore land take and land use potentially increased (e.g. wind farms, growth of indigenous biomass for energy supply) and/or decreased (more decentralised power production, therefore grid infrastructure less significant)

Challenges for land area for energy crops.

Anticipated Environmental Effects
(of emission reduction measures)
on SEA Topics

Biodiversity, flora and fauna:

There may be an indirect impact on biodiversity depending on the source of renewable energy (e.g. wind farms, biomass). Impacts are generally localised, permanent and negative, though limited in severity.

Air:

Biomass burning for energy can produce negative local air quality impacts, which can adversely affect human health. Other renewables technologies should have neutral impact on air quality. Low carbon transport reduces local air quality problems greatly. Possibility of increased transport air emissions. Waste streams could be diverted to energy production, reducing material use, although these can have direct impacts on air quality resulting from biomass transport. There should be improved air quality through energy efficiency or mode switching to more efficient energy production methods.

Water:

In general, waste streams and other emissions should be reduced, including those to water.

Soil:

Potential for contamination of soil to be reduced. Potential for some loss of soil/ soil erosion/ structural damage as a result of wind farm developments. Main impacts on soils through renewables physical infrastructure development.

Human health/Population:

Potential for human health impacts from local generation projects that involve combustion.

Material assets/Landscape/Historic environment:

Potential impacts as renewables development usually involve creating physical infrastructure with associated direct impacts on biodiversity, soils, and landscape and material assets.

This applies equally to development of energy crops (monocultures, etc.). Landscape potentially affected by new energy generation developments and changes to existing energy generation and transmission developments. Reduction in fossil fuel consumption, though material intensive infrastructure development will be necessary for adequate renewables development.

SEA Comment

Identify opportunities to maximise demand reduction across all sectors.

Enabling provisions should allow for setting mandatory GHG reduction targets at sector level.

National planning policy guidance should steer renewables development towards non-sensitive land and sea.

Project EIA should be carried out for all developments, SEA could be carried out for sector wide initiatives.

Any technology which involves burning of biomass has the potential for local air quality impacts; these should be assessed on a case by case basis.

Life cycle assessments should be carried out for new technologies i.e. does the carbon saving justify the investment in the technology.

Significant infrastructure change will be needed with consequent short term increase in consumption of materials, generation of waste and consumption of energy.

Business as usual

Fossil fuel use continues to increase

Private vehicle transport (cars) remain preferred mode of travel

Price prevents greater market penetration of more efficient/ less polluting vehicles

Mobility may be compromised as roads become more congested presenting public safety issues - also increases relative emission loads

Continued extraction, refinement and transportation of fossil fuels exacerbates energy demand

Cost of fossil fuels may eventually limit growth to some extent

Modal shift not realised until people are priced out of their cars

Impacts on reliability of systems of adaptation is not considered

Aviation growth in UK/Scotland unrestricted as seen as major driver of business growth

Maritime (shipping) fuel use also continues to grow in line with business growth

Fossil fuels continue to be main source of energy consumed and will eventually be exhausted

Presents high priority security of energy and fuel supply issues

Infrastructure development to accommodate increase in traffic numbers, results in continued demand for material resources

Exacerbates existing problems

Increasing turnover of road vehicles/ fleets and continued use of non-recyclable components

Continued heavy demand for imports, with associated embedded carbon costs

Aviation and shipping fuel demand may lead to conflict/ prioritisation with terrestrial vehicle fuel supplies - further cost implications

Domestic biofuel production will not meet domestic demand

Reliance on imported biofuels leads to concern over sustainable production and transfer of environmentally damaging processes

Continued extraction, refinement and transportation of fuels exacerbate emissions and polluting incidents

Improvements in vehicle efficiencies and cleaner engine technologies may offer slight improvements, although this will likely be offset by increased vehicle numbers.

Increased pressures on waste streams - esp. GHG and particulate atmospheric emissions, surface runoff to soil and water environments

Limited use of bio-diesel from wastes

Increased use of physical space and land use change likely to keep up with increasing transport demands

Infrastructure development will require extensive land resources, affecting local soil, water and biodiversity resources

Inappropriate transfer of agricultural land to intensive biomass/ biofuel production can exacerbate known issues associated with intensive agricultural systems

Increased potential for flooding and landslides (due to climate effects on drought and rainfall intensity) to damage built infrastructure

Emissions Reduction Measures

Policy/ Behavioural

Legislation on sectoral contribution to meet targets could help to focus action

Road transport and aviation emissions trading could be utilised to provide a flexible approach to attain targets

Promotion of modal shift must identify 'carrots and sticks' for people to drive less and use other more sustainable modes of transport - no longer enough to say that organisations/ government will simply promote modal shift

Sectoral contributions to emissions reductions imply a general reduction in raw material use.

A move towards utilisation of energy crops is implied.

If sourced outside the UK/Scotland, develop procurement systems that provide robust assessments of comparative carbon impacts.

New procurement systems should be subject to LCA/ SEA.

Policies could work to drive manufacturers to improve the lifetime of vehicles and reduce scrapping rates.

Fuel manufacturing/ refining installations may come under the remit of Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control ( IPPC) regulations which should be robust enough to protect soils, waters and air

Policy measures can be introduced to stimulate growth in bio-diesel from wastes as there is huge potential for use in public transport and road haulage

Strengthen guidance/ legislation on land use and transport planning to regulate growth of out of town retail development/ technology parks etc.

Limit car parking spaces in town centres

The planning system should support and steer the development of biofuel capacity - both in terms of energy crop location, and refining facilities

Natural heritage and historic environment legislation is probably sufficiently robust to prevent deterioration from development of biofuels.

Increase support for non-motorised options (safe walking and cycling routes)

Emissions Reduction Measures

Technical/ Financial

Price caps/ financial incentive/ subsidy of public transport/ suburban rail to encourage modal shifts from private transport

Consideration could be given to introducing road pricing/ congestion charging/ dedicated public transport routes

Invest in attractive public transport facilities

Develop market to reduce costs of hybrid/ efficient vehicles

Support growth of bio-diesel from waste for use in public transport and road haulage

Improved extraction, refining, manufacturing and transportation efficiencies required with associated material consumption to drive energy and resource efficiency

Biofuel source materials will be consumed, though there is potential for part of this to be sourced from waste streams

Increase in scrapping rates and the turnover of vehicles as new energy efficiency models sold

Increased development of energy system infrastructures for fuel for vehicles.

Increase uptake of biofuels through the use of biofuel blending

Hydrogen as a fuel for transportation should be explored further through a programme of well funded research and development

Hydrogen fuel cells can provide reductions in air emissions provided the source energy is sustainably generated

Gains in fuel and energy efficiency should result in net decrease in air emissions

Measures could be introduced to stimulate growth in bio-diesel from wastes as there is huge potential for use in public transport and road haulage.

Land take is inevitable if biofuels are to be developed in the domestic setting, both in terms of source crops, and also the location of manufacturing/ processing facilities.

Integrated planning should consider wider costs/benefits of local processing facilities over transportation needs

Anticipated Environmental Effects
(of emissions reduction measures)
on SEA Topics

Biodiversity, Soil, Water and Landscape:

A move towards use of biofuels could have direct, negative, long term impacts due to requirements for intensive energy crop production.

There may be an indirect long term impact on the water environment depending on energy crop production methods.

Increased land use change for biomass fuel development could have detrimental impacts on associated habitats and species, as more land is devoted to monoculture.

Air:

Air quality will still be negatively impacted by transport biofuel emissions still contain Air Quality Strategy priority substances.

Modal shift may also negatively impact air quality at certain locations.

Could be emissions from new manufacturing/ refinement processes - though it is likely these will be regulated by PPC.

Human Health and Population:

Improvements to public transport systems is implied, which can have a positive impact on mobility

Impacts on human health will depend on the suite of measures adopted, although there may be little difference if biofuels are widely used.

Material Assets:

Reduced use of fossil fuels and associated materials/ Increase in use of materials associated with manufacture of new technologies.

Improved energy security though decreased reliance on fossil fuels, increasing diversity of energy/ fuel mix and improved efficiencies.

Reduced use of raw materials from improved lifetime and recycling standards.

Reduced waste streams if these can be utilised for biofuel production/ New waste streams could be produced from biofuel production.

SEA Comment

The use of biofuels in the transport sector, supported by the Reserved RTFO, has the potential to cause environmental damage from growing energy crops.

An assessment should be carried out to establish Scotland's capacity for sustainable energy crop/ bio-fuel production.

Individual technologies should be subject to Life Cycle Assessment to assess whether they provide real GHG savings.

Bio-diesel from waste, properly supported, has the potential to offer significant GHG savings.

Encouragement of modal shift requires appropriate financial mechanisms to either price people out of cars or make other modes more attractive.

Business as usual

Energy consumption is responsible for only a small proportion of GHG emissions from Agriculture.

Transportation does contribute to the GHG impact of the sector.

Land use will continue to use energy resources in an unsustainable manner.

Difficult to assess this question for agriculture since raw materials are mainly drawn from within the farm volume.

The great majority of raw materials for agriculture come from the air and soil via photosynthesis.

Raw materials such as phosphate fertiliser are a very small part of the total.

Raw material use will continue at close to current rates.

Agriculture is not significantly expanding or intensifying and measures are being introduced, such as the Water Framework Directive and IPPC, to reduce agricultural emissions to air and water.

Thus with business as usual, these emissions should decrease.

Given that agriculture is not significantly expanding or intensifying, the land take should not change much in the near future under business as usual.

Land use is managed through existing plans.

Emissions Reduction Measures

Policy/ Behavioural

More widespread use of forestry stewardship techniques

In conjunction with research into alternative crops and biomass, potential focus should be on distributed supply networks, micro-generation and support for farm scale solutions.

Schemes encouraging the use of biodiesel for farm vehicles, machinery and associated heavy transport would help reduce costs and act to meet climate change targets

Significant reductions in GHG emissions from agriculture are only likely to arise via reductions in production, which will lead to reduced consumption of raw materials.

More responsible application of soil enhancers leads to less direct N ₂O and CO ₂ emissions with associated raw material reductions further up the supply chain.

Common Agricultural Policy reform could lead to reduced cattle numbers.

Reduction in slurry wastes/ slurry as a resource.

Improved cattle feeds could reduce methane emissions.

Farms in NVZ required to keep fertiliser and manure records - could be extended across whole agricultural sector.

Land Management Contracts, which include measures that contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation are available to all land managers and rural businesses.

CAP reform could lead to reduced cattle numbers with resultant reduction in methane emissions.

Expansion of arable land could lead to emissions of CO ₂ from oxidation of soil organic matter. This may be an acceptable trade-off given the much greater global warming potential ( GWP) of the emissions being reduced (CH ₄, x21; N ₂O x310).

Increased pressure on forestry sector to mitigate emissions from other sectors.

Better forestry management by adopting longer rotation periods, altering felling unit sizes, altering edge limits, creating a multi-aged mosaic of stands, using mixed species planting including native species can lead to reduced emissions.

Any considerations advocating land use change should be properly assessed to determine benefits against anticipated climate mitigation and adaptation.

Priority should be given to protecting carbon stores including peat and wetlands.

Carbon sequestration requires long term commitment, forward planning and appropriate support mechanisms.

Wetland creation will encourage biodiversity improvements.

Alternative cropping regimes should be investigated for potential benefits.

Livestock and manure management to reduce CH ₄ emissions.

Measures to reduce GHG emissions could substantially increase the land area needed for farming, in particular arable farming.

In order to minimise this potential problem any arable expansion should be on soils with relatively little organic matter, such as short-term leys and permanent grass on light sandy soils.

Emissions Reduction Measures

Technical/ Financial

Funding sources for conversion to renewable energy systems should be identified.

Dedicated energy crops to replace fossil fuel use.

Improved energy efficiency.

Improved crop yields.

Effective measures to reduce GHG emissions from Agriculture are not likely to have a large impact on energy consumption.

Increased use of biomass as a renewable energy source.

Timber miles minimised through use of locally sourced biomass.

Use of alternative fuels in operational vehicles.

Greenhouse gas mitigation should focus on reducing fertiliser use

Improved fertiliser application techniques to reduce N ₂O emissions

Efficient use of fertilisers and irrigation.

In addition, while large reductions in GHG emissions from Agriculture may be impossible to achieve; those emissions may be balanced by increased carbon sequestration.

This may be achieved by planting woodlands. This may, in the short term at least, lead to greater use of water resources.

However, vast amounts of carbon (c. 80% of all the carbon stored in all UK soils) are stored in Scotland's peat soils.

It is essential that the hydrology of these peats is not disturbed as, should they begin to dry out, oxidation of the peat will take place potentially releasing large amounts of methane and CO ₂.

Forestry sector should supply more locally sourced wood for building materials.

Tree species improvement to increase biomass productivity and carbon sequestration.

Harvested wood product management.

Greenhouse gas mitigation should focus on reducing methane production (or capturing as much as possible as useful bio-gas).

Significant reductions in GHG emissions from agriculture will be most readily achieved by reducing Nitrogen inputs to land and reducing livestock production, in particular ruminants. These measures will greatly reduce pollution of air and water both directly and indirectly through reduced manure production.

Better understanding of importance of land (both soils and foliage) in sequestration of carbon

Responsible use of soil enhancers reduces nitrification/eutrophication of inland waters.

Planting of woodlands to sequester carbon should have neutral or even beneficial impacts on water quality.

Preservation of soil carbon through better land use practices such as conservation tillage, cover crops, incorporation of crop residue and organic fertiliser enhances carbon storage.

Financial support (e.g. ROCs) should promote use of land for energy crops and short rotation coppice as fuel sources

Financial incentives to increase forest area, and to maintain and manage forests

Potential to use agriculture systems that increase carbon sequestration include agro-forestry options, woodland pasture and energy cropping

Restoration of cultivated peaty soils and degraded lands.

Maintain soil carbon content.

In addition, since the potential to reduce CH ₄ emissions from enteric fermentation is quite limited (c. 20%), a more effective means of reducing GHG emissions from livestock production would be to replace beef and lamb with pork and poultry in the diet, as those animals do not have a rumen.

However, growing cereals for those livestock at the expense of grass would lead to emissions of CO ₂ from ploughed-out grassland and hence this option would need to be carefully evaluated with respect to the overall GHG balance.

Increased afforestation with native species improves natural biodiversity.

Improved remote sensing techniques for analysis of vegetation soil carbon sequestration potential and mapping land use change.

Anticipated Environmental Effects
(of reduction measures)
on SEA Topics

Biodiversity, flora and fauna:

Generally positive impacts through measures such as better fertiliser application techniques, responsible afforestation, wetland creation.

Air:

Potentially positive impact on air quality from reduced emissions from livestock, soils, and farming vehicles representing a positive permanent impact.

Water:

Responsible use of fertiliser should reduce diffuse pollution to controlled waters representing a positive permanent impact.

Soil:

Soil management measures are a central focus of the contribution agriculture can make to mitigating climate change. These measures generally involve some form of soil improvement (or development of a better understanding of soil processes) and can therefore be ascribed a permanent positive impact on this topic.

Human health/Population:

Better control of agricultural pollution should have an indirect positive permanent impact on human health and population.

Material assets/ Landscape/ Historic environment;

No significant effects have been identified for material assets or the historic environment. Potential mixed impacts on landscape depending on land take in, for example, forestry.

SEA Comment

There are general environmental benefits to agriculture contributing to the mitigation of climate change in Scotland.

The sector has an important role to play both in adapting its practices in order to directly/indirectly reduce GHG emissions, but also in providing a framework for mitigating the effects of other sectors.

It is important that the climate change imperative is not seen as an overarching environmental objective that is tackled at the expense of other aspects of the environment.

This is particularly pertinent the agriculture sector, as mitigation of other sectors' contributions to climate change invariably involve some form of land use, with potential consequential environmental damage.

Business as usual

Consumption will continue to drive upstream GHG emissions.

Energy will become more expensive as the effects of dwindling fossil fuel resources takes effect.

Business will continue to waste money through poor energy efficiency.

Escalating energy prices as fuels become increasingly difficult to source.

Impacts on reliability of systems of adaptation is not considered.

Raw material use will continue at close to current rates

Raw material stocks face increased pressure as demand outstrips supply.

Water resource demand grows and associated energy costs increase.

Continued change from agricultural land to sealed surfaces exacerbates soil carbon losses and emissions.

Use of aggregates in construction exacerbates raw material depletion unless recycled.

Construction may move to more sustainable sources and materials, eg. timber sourcing, less concrete, eco-friendly insulation.

Indirect GHG emissions will continue unabated.

Other emission streams will be the same at best.

Land will continue to be developed for industrial use with little consideration of the effects on climate change.

Emission Reduction Measures

Policy/ Behavioural

Performance standards for business premises.

Possibility of incentives for business investing in/utilising renewable energy technologies.

Tax-credits or other fiscal measures to promote carbon reduction behaviour.

Participation of businesses in climate change agreements.

More stringent energy efficiency standards for buildings.

Encourage investor participation in climate change issues.

Educate staff on their contribution to helping the business reduce its footprint e.g. through sustainable business travel planning.

Encourage staff to reduce their own carbon footprints.

Greater awareness results in reduced energy consumption and improved energy efficiency.

Statutory sectoral contributions to emissions reductions imply a general reduction in raw material use.

Legislation could be implemented to place an imperative on large business to assess the GHG impact of their procurement systems - possibly through assessment of individual raw material suppliers/ supply chains

Implement carbon efficient procurement schemes/ systems.

New procurement systems could be subject to LCA/sustainability appraisal.

Greater awareness leads to more efficient use of raw materials meaning fewer emissions through reduced waste, transport etc.

More sustainable resources investigated with substitution of less sustainable options.

Issues for disposal rates of appliances (may increase).

Waste streams can be reduced by educating staff providing an indirect GHG benefit from the business sector.

Legislation should require business to recycle a percentage of generated waste.

Initiatives in other areas such as waste reduction can also provide indirect emission reductions on the supply side.

Improved business reporting of GHG emissions.

Knock on benefits to waste streams, soil, surface water etc.

Continued living outside our long term environmental limits lead to exacerbation of current problems.

Existing legislation and control measures heavily dependent on voluntary responsible behaviour.

Indirect effect on the energy supply side depending on energy mix (e.g. land take for biomass).

Planning regime relaxation for business implementing renewables projects.

Need for land for new premises.

Need for new landfill sites.

Limits on biodiversity enhancement and pressure on existing greenbelts for new development.

Newer developments may improve design of biodiversity links and open spaces.

Emission Reduction Measures

Technical/ Financial

More efficient end-use electrical goods would offer cost and climate benefits.

Improved energy efficiency measures in new buildings, and possibly existing ones.

Energy efficiency loans for SMEs.

Developments in small scale renewable technologies.

Employ energy managers with targeted responsibility.

Opportunities for businesses in development of new technologies or financial systems.

Investment needed in small scale renewables.

Building standards and funding schemes should drive adoption of energy efficiency measures (e.g. insulation); these will need to be manufactured with obvious raw material use.

Microgeneration systems will be manufactured with concomitant use of materials.

Systems should be subject to LCA to assess their climate change benefits.

Investment in more small scale renewables.

Resource efficiency awareness leads to less associated emissions.

More efficient utility use means reduced emissions.

Introduction of emissions trading for SMEs

Waste streams can be reduced by educating staff providing an indirect GHG benefit from the manufacturing/energy supply sector.

Legislation should require business to recycle a percentage of generated waste.

Develop carbon footprinting for business

Manufacture of renewables systems can lead to emissions though these should be regulated through existing regimes.

Audit and cut emissions from vehicle fleets.

Increased waste as new appliances replace old.

Development of small scale renewables implies an impact on visual amenity though careful design should mitigate this.

Planning policy should be flexible enough to facilitate development of renewables, while protecting environmental interests.

New manufacturing facilities may be required for systems with associated land take issues.

The planning regime is sufficiently robust in guiding development in this area.

Anticipated Environmental Effects
(of reduction measures)
on SEA Topics

Benefits will be mainly realised as a result of adopting energy efficiency measures, development of sustainable transport programmes, reduction in waste, adoption of renewable energy technologies, and more efficient use of resources. These will lead to generally positive (mostly indirect) impacts on the SEA topics, more specifically:

Biodiversity, flora and fauna:

Improved energy efficiency reduces demand with positive and permanent indirect benefits on biodiversity through reduction in emissions, and other factors such as land use change, extraction of raw materials.

Air:

Indirect positive impact on emissions to air through a reduction in energy consumption. Direct positive impacts on air from reducing waste, using more sustainable transport.

Water:

Direct permanent benefit on consumption of water resources, and indirect positive effects on water pollution through reduced emissions and waste generation.

Soils:

Potential for significant indirect permanent impacts if new practices lead to a reduction in raw material extraction. Less waste generation implies a reduced need for development of further landfill capacity.

Human health/Population:

Indirect permanent positive benefits to population through new employment opportunities.

Material assets/ Landscape/ Historic environment:

Generally positive permanent impacts on the above..

The measures described above imply a more resource efficient sector, thereby reducing the need for raw material extraction and generation of waste streams, all of which have positive implications for these topics.

SEA Comment

The business sector is very important in mitigating climate change as the financial and social influence the sector wields is immense.

The sector is well placed to influence the behaviour of employees, suppliers and other stakeholders.

Climate change mitigation actions are likely to have indirect environmental benefits relating to reduction in energy use and reduction in waste stream volumes.

Whilst crucial in ensuring benefits are realised, the use of appropriate, context specific economic, regulatory, voluntary and other policy instruments need to be carefully monitored for their effectiveness and overall environmental impacts.

Business as usual

Energy consumption continues to grow in line with new housing development and demand for home electricals.

New homes become more energy efficient as building standards improve.

Some older homes become more efficient as technologies are renewed and updated and retrofitting of insulation etc. takes place.

Some older homes/ flats not updated due to financial barriers/ cost implications.

Increased demand for new homes as residential dynamic continues to slant towards single occupancy.

Out of town retail, supermarkets and suburban developments maintain levels of domestic car use.

Increased rise in conventional fuel prices.

Discount holiday travel continues.

Raw material stocks face increased pressure as demand outstrips supply.

Continued 'throw-away' society increases pressure on land fill sites.

Water resource demand grows and associated energy costs increase.

Continued change from agricultural land to sealed surfaces exacerbates soil carbon losses and emissions.

Use of aggregates in construction exacerbates raw material depletion unless recycled.

Construction may move to more sustainable sources and materials, eg. timber sourcing, less concrete, eco-friendly insulation.

Scotland's consumer society results in continued embedded carbon costs/ emissions in imported products.

Continued living outside our long term environmental limits lead to exacerbation of current problems.

Existing legislation and control measures heavily dependent on voluntary responsible behaviour.

Many Scottish city dwellers live in flats, with associated limitations on waste separation and uplift.

Municipal waste generation increases in line with housing growth.

Domestic vehicle use continues until fuel costs limit non-essential use.

Growth in transport emissions in line with housing growth and affluence.

New town developments may present better integration of transport and land use planning leading to lower rates of domestic car use and associated emissions for these areas.

Need for land for new homes.

Need for new landfill sites.

Limits on biodiversity enhancement and pressure on existing greenbelts for new development.

Continued biodiversity pressure due to urban expansion - some species may continue to thrive in urban environment.

Newer developments may improve design of biodiversity links and open spaces.

Emission Reduction Measures

Policy/ Behavioural

Ensure energy efficiency criteria applies to flatted developments (including communal areas/ facilities)

Building energy codes and certification

Feed-in tariffs could improve uptake of micro-generation technologies if residential customers could sell energy back to the grid.

Secondary benefit in reducing demand from the grid.

Building and planning regulations may need reviewed to help facilitate.

Public transport could be subsidised or price capped to encourage use.

Shift from flying (particularly short haul) to rail travel, particularly if rail services and costs improve and flying becomes more expensive.

Voluntary agreements - demand side management programmes

Consumer engagement - energy supply businesses could develop their energy services to move from payment for supply only.

Demand-side energy reduction is most important factor as reduced demand at point of delivery implies reduced demand throughout energy supply system - estimated to be in the region of 13 units saved overall for every 1 unit of demand reduced.

Education to increase awareness leads to higher recycling rates.

Increased recycling helps ease raw material consumption and ease stock depletion.

Possibility of energy certificates for all homes sold.

Water resources in Scotland seen as plentiful, links must be made between water uses and associated wider energy costs of treatment and supply.

In the long term, construction processes must be verified as low/ zero carbon before planning permission or development consent provided.

Recycling rates must increase.

Similarly, awareness over energy implications of water use must improve.

Increased environmental awareness leads to more sustainable living.

Reduced consumption leads to waste minimisation - must be supported by reductions in packaging.

Some waste associated with retrofitting/ replacing old/ less efficient products.

Waste streams diverted from landfill (eg composting) which reduces emissions of CO2 and methane.

Reduced impact of emissions at altitude, along with the contrail and other emissions associated with flying.

Plans to promote modal shift in transport must be supported with cost incentives and convenience to encourage effective uptake at anywhere near levels required to significantly reduce domestic vehicle emissions.

Recycle and reward schemes eg. money back on bottles (preferably funded by manufacturers) would go some way to reducing waste and hidden costs.

Potential for phase out of landfill sites

Potential to review statutory protection for prime quality agricultural land to limit soil sealing and maintain resource.

Strengthen green belt protection.

Planning system may need amended to strengthen protection of land resource.

Strengthen policies to restrict development within identified flood plains - potential for increased risk and downstream costs.

Provide incentive for appropriate energy efficient brownfield/ urban redevelopment.

New development proposals should include carbon input-output or environmental footprint analysis along with appropriate habitat restoration or enhancement/ mitigation strategies.

Emissions abatement and carbon costs must become second nature in construction or development planning - as much as health and safety or access and recreation.

Emission Reduction Measures

Technical/ Financial

One-stop centre for domestic energy advice should be created.

Improved efficiency lighting could be subsidised to encourage uptake.

The use and installation of eco-friendly home insulation materials should be actively promoted.

Tackling fuel poverty - potential for welfare system to address installation of efficiency products.

Incentives could be provided for the installation of integrated solar voltaic systems for water heating.

Increasing demand for renewables leads to increased raw material demand (high quality steel in short supply).

Improving energy efficiency of appliances may actually lead to greater consumption as people buy more.

Alternative (low GWP) refrigeration fluids should be developed.

Better billing and intelligent metering with feedback and control.

More efficient homes using more sustainable methods of construction.

Recovery and recycling of fluorinated gases.

Construction firms should be required to produce input/ output analyses to verify wastes and emissions.

Encourage sustainable supply chain management and identification of revenue streams for wastes.

Financial incentive for householders could be related to tax rebates on waste minimisation or recycling.

Biodiesel from waste should be supported to encourage market penetration.

Increased demand for renewable energy leads to increased land use change.

Potential to support micro-generation and community programmes.

Development of feed-in tariffs for domestic generation would improve uptake, reduce demand on national energy supplies and reduce emissions.

Incentives for energy service companies to support small scale renewable technologies.

Cost of 'green energy' comes down as these technologies become more established.

Anticipated Environmental Effects
(of emission reduction measures)
on SEA Topics

Climatic Factors:

Personal responsibility for energy efficiency and awareness of the need to minimise demand must be fostered to realise any long term beneficial effects.

Continued unsustainable global residential/business consumption and transport use will lead to highly critical negative impacts and potentially dangerous climate change.

Air, Water and Soil:

With appropriate consideration of wider environmental impacts of construction resource efficiency, there could be long term positive effects, however soil, water and air will all remain under pressure from domestic housing and business growth, therefore mixed impacts are likely.

Biodiversity:

Direct impacts realised during construction/ land use change phases. These pressures will continue in line with domestic housing and business growth.

Long-term negative impacts associated with development, minor positives possible with appropriate planning for biodiversity/ habitat links and green routes.

Human Health and Population:

Only concerted and coordinated effort across the Scottish population has the potential to make a difference to emissions reductions.

Energy demand reduction is the only feasible option within the short term, with integration of renewables making some headway in the medium-long term.

Lack of early action will lead to long term, significant negative effects on health and population due to dangerous climate change effects.

Material Assets:

New building efficiency standards positive but will need to go further to achieve the level of emissions reductions required.

Incentives required to encourage people with older housing stock to take action also, otherwise potential benefits of new building efficiencies will be lost.

Landscape/ Historic Environment:

Potential for short term thinking to have long term impacts on landscape however change may become accepted with time.

Any loss of historic features to development is usually permanent, but may not be significant.

SEA Comment

Behavioural adaptation could be particularly important in the residential sector where regulation has limited reach.

The general environmental benefits seen in this sector are indirect but far reaching, mainly deriving from reduced requirement for energy generation and reduced waste streams.

Policy will clearly play a critical role and will need careful monitoring and assessment to ensure effectiveness and avoidance of unintended environmental consequences.

Business as usual

(Some details taken from:
'Scotland's Climate Change Declaration,
A Programme of Support for Scottish Local Government, Appendices', 2007)

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/
Resource/Doc/921/0054135.pdf

The public sector currently accounts for 23% of employment in Scotland:

Local Government including police and fire and related services (55.2%),
NHS (26.3%),
Civil Service (8.7%),
Public Corporations (4.4%),
Non Departmental Public Bodies (2.5%)
Armed Forces (2.3%). ( ONS, Q1, 2007)

Scotland's Climate Change Declaration was developed to support delivery of the objectives in Scotland's Climate Change Programme and was signed up to by all Scottish Local Authorities.

The Declaration marked the culmination of a collaborative effort between several interests including UKCIP, SNIFFER and the SSN and is a significant achievement particularly considering this was not a statutory duty.

The public sector will however, continue to be energy intensive and a major indirect contributor to GHG emissions.

Transporting 23% of Scotland's workforce presents huge emissions issues alone.

Green energy contracts for energy supplies are only part of the solution.

There are no targets or other statutory obligations placed on local government.

Public and environmental services raw materials use will continue at current rates unless there are extensive efficiency drives across all areas to reduce wasteful practice

Public services must improve on energy and raw material use

Progress will be limited without clear overall responsibility for progressing climate change in Scotland - no single agency has been delegated with the responsibility of delivering on this task

Few authorities have integrated climate change into procurement or Best Value policies, although some link this issue, in some ways, to energy use.

Change processes include moves to encourage shared services and more efficient government.

Indirect GHG emissions will continue unabated, other waste and emission streams continue in similar fashion

Climate change is not integrated across local authorities or Scottish Government, especially in the important areas of waste, travel and energy

A SNIFFER survey in 2005 found that for Sustainable Urban Drainage Schemes ( SUDS), transport and roads infrastructure, waste management, subsidence, storm damage and emergency planning, no actions are identified or policies specified linked to climate change.

Emphasis is very much on voluntary participation, rather than any specific requirements to act.

While duties of Best Value and Community Planning are potentially tools to take forward commitments set out in the climate change declaration, clearer direction is needed.

New developments in the public sector will continue to take land

Nine planning authorities include climate change - both mitigation and adaptation - as challenges facing the planning process in planning documents

SNIFFER research suggests that climate change is regarded by some Community Planning partners as a lower priority

There is scope to use the Community Planning process to achieve wider delivery of the Declaration through Community Planning

While there are some very good examples of sustainable buildings and developments, these will remain the exception rather than the rule

Emissions Reduction Measures

Policy/ Behavioural

Statutory agreement on sectoral contributions to overall GHG reduction targets would provide focus for public sector action.

Requires driven by a dedicated, independent co-ordinating body to change direction of action from piece-meal and voluntary to focused and high priority.

Government estate/ NHS/ public buildings targets would enable focused targeting and contributions towards overall reductions to be delineated.

Strengthen energy efficiency standards/ requirements for all public buildings

Strengthen Best Value considerations and responsibility for all public sector business travel.

Improve targeted reporting of energy and resource use and associated GHG impacts.

Link senior public sector remuneration to emission/ energy reduction targets.

Legislation could be introduced that places an imperative on local government/ public bodies to assess the GHG impact of their procurement systems and suppliers

Public sector leadership programmes; including procurement, can drive private sector (suppliers/ consultants/ contractors) improvement.

Opportunity for public sector to consider input-output analyses or carbon footprinting as measures of performance and means of driving overall efficiencies.

National standards for analyses are required.

People see action on climate change is for 'someone else' - and can be disempowered by messages relating to the immensity and complexity of the issue and the 'uncertainties' around climate change science - these issues must be addressed.

There is a need to learn and share good practice, coupled with effective dissemination of the impacts of demand and the benefits of demand reduction.

Public sector drive on efficiencies can have wide spread benefits through staff education and translation of learning into personal behaviours (potentially 23% of the working population and their families)

More effort on reducing private car transport to work required.

Encourage staff to reduce their own carbon emissions - e.g. car clubs, public transport subsidy

Educate staff on their contribution to helping the sector reduce its footprint

Local authority declaration should be enhanced to include targets for energy demand reductions and resultant emissions reductions.

Stronger role for local government in targeting energy/ emissions reductions at a local level.

Planning relaxation for public sector implementing renewables projects (esp. micro scale).

Strengthen protection for green belts, green corridors, agricultural land and soil resources.

Development of any land should be considered against the intrinsic value of maintaining the current condition over potential for increased emissions and loss of sequestration functions, effectively considering the cumulative climate impacts of disparate decisions.

Local Authorities are required to evaluate greenfield sites earmarked for development against climate, soil and flooding criteria, however, the relative emphasis on these issues should be strengthened and clearer guidance produced.

Strengthened national building standards and town and country planning guidance may be required.

Emissions Reduction Measures

Technical/ Financial

Secure Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation funding within public sector budgets required.

Funding schemes to invest in and promote energy and transport efficiency best practice across the sector.

Increase awareness of energy efficiency loans to finance investment.

All renewed public sector office equipment, lighting and heating should be highly energy efficient e.g. computer screens that shut off with PC.

New public sector buildings should exceed energy efficiency requirements of regulations.

Link senior public sector remuneration to emission/ energy reduction targets.

Building standards and funding schemes will drive adoption of energy efficiency measures

Investment in microgeneration and other renewable systems will be manufactured with concomitant use of materials

Public sector procurement decisions should be subject to Life Cycle Analysis to assess their climate change benefits/ impacts

National standards for public sector procurement and accounting for embodied carbon are required

Public sector duty to report on progress/ action/ results also required

Areas of the public sector will increasingly respond to the climate change agenda, to assist this process, and complement delivery of the Declaration, funding programmes such as those for housing associations, and further and higher education funding, could be required to assist in the delivery of climate change objectives.

Waste streams can be minimised through educating public sector employees, thereby providing indirect GHG reductions from the manufacturing/ energy supply sectors.

Legislation could require public sector to recycle and minimise generated waste

Identification of revenue streams from waste (including collected municipal waste) should be encouraged to cover costs involved.

Formal partnerships, together with common aims and operating rules, means that constituent public sector bodies may work to best advantage, rather than to deliver their own separate priorities.

Development of small scale renewables implies an impact on visual amenity though careful siting and design should minimise impacts.

Planning policy should be flexible enough to facilitate development of renewables, while protecting environmental interests.

Anticipated Environmental Effects
(of reduction measures)
on SEA Topics

Reduction in energy demand/ consumption through concerted investment in energy efficiency and education (with savings re-invested), and a significant shift towards renewable sources of supply, coupled with a direct reduction in the use of raw materials (including water) and in waste stream volumes could lead to:

Climatic Factors: direct, long term, positive impacts;

Human Health & Population: indirect, local, positive impacts;

Water: conservation of resources/ reduction in emissions, long term, positive impacts;

Air: positive effects of indirect reductions in emissions;

Soil: indirect, long term, positive impacts (if impact of renewables and soil sealing/ Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems issues properly considered);

Biodiversity: indirect, long term, mixed impacts;

Landscape: potential negative impacts of renewables on visual amenity (will decrease with time);

Historic Environment: indirect benefits through conservation of resources.

SEA Comment

The Local Government in Scotland Act 2003 (Best Value and Sustainable Development Duty) provides a driver for work on climate change.

SEA processes supplement this with the need to consider climatic factors.

However, realising the cross-cutting and priority nature of long-term considerations of climate change impacts and means to mitigate emissions at present, could be viewed as relatively weak.

Stronger legislative drivers are required for the public sector if the target of the Scottish Climate Change Bill is to be realised.

Reliance on voluntary measures represents a weak (light green) sustainability approach.

Business as usual

Energy consumption including vehicle and plant fuel use subject to increasing unit costs.

Efficiencies guided by market prices.

Municipal waste collection and private vehicle transport to recycling centres necessary but fuel intensive

Waste collection, management and disposal all energy intensive

Energy from waste generally encompasses a range of technologies that directly generate energy from waste

It does not cover waste management techniques that save energy, such as recycling or waste prevention

Raw material prices influenced by market forces in UK and abroad (eg. steel).

Current waste management regulations and increasing disposal restrictions and costs have/ will increase(d) focus on efficiency and minimisation of wastes in some sectors

May extend the availability of some raw material stocks through more efficient (less wasteful) use.

Emissions from licensed activities largely controlled by existing legislation.

Potential for increase in fly-tipping events with associated potential for pollution

Waste production and recycling will likely continue to grow in line with domestic housing and business growth.

Waste minimisation more difficult without restrictions on packaging.

Incineration may be promoted as energy from waste but is still heavily polluting for local air quality and GHG emissions, eg. electricity only incinerators can emit up to 33% more CO2, for the electricity they provide, than gas fired power stations.

Biological wastes can be processed to provide soil improvers and generate methane which can be used to generate power and heat.

Landfill use continues with end-of-pipe collection of ground gases

Contaminated land and soils may continue to be removed and dumped as controlled waste

Urban wildlife continues to feed off domestic refuse.

If wastes are separated at source, eg. kitchen waste, after suitable processing these should be usable as compost.

Emission Reduction Measures

Policy/ Behavioural

Behavioural change required in waste management operations by businesses and local government.

Increased segregation/ separation of wastes may be required.

Renewable energy incentives or obligations.

Reduce biodegradable waste reaching landfill.

Increase awareness of CO2 and CH4 emissions from waste treatment processes.

Support development of anaerobic digestion/ CHP waste systems over incineration.

Introduce policy measures to drive raw material and resource efficiency across sectors.

Strengthen policy measures to address polluting activities (eg. improved powers to prosecute, higher environmental fines).

Residual waste is the waste left over after reuse, recycling and composting - the amount of residual waste depends on how effective non-residual treatments are, combined with how difficult certain waste types are to reuse, recycle or compost.

From an environmental point of view, the best course of action is to phase out residual waste.

Prevention, reuse and recycling are all more environmentally beneficial than residual waste treatment.

Strengthen policies to reduce biodegradable wastes to landfill (notably Commercial &Industrial wastes).

Possible moratorium on landfill site development.

Planning for residual waste should assume that its volume will reduce over time.

Policies should be put in place to increase the amount of residual waste that is recyclable or compostable.

Emission Reduction Measures

Technical/ Financial

Waste incineration with energy recovery

Recycling and waste minimisation

Financial incentives for improved waste and wastewater management.

Strengthen waste management regulations.

Focus on technologies/ plant that have lower energy/ fuel use.

Investment in treatment technologies that can deliver energy benefits such as AD and CHP.

Methane from Anaerobic Digestion ( AD) plant can be used as fuel in CHP plant, generating renewable-only heating.

Combined AD/ CHP plants are well suited for use in distributed generation schemes, where power and heat are generated more locally than in the current electricity supply system.

Promote the identification and use of waste as a raw material:

Composting source separated organic waste;

Landfill and anaerobic digestion methane. (CH4) recovery to produce energy.

Controlled waste water treatment and potential use of sludge on land.

Move towards technologies that reduce CH4 emission in particular.

Reduction of waste to landfill in favour of more controlled methods of disposal & treatment.

Bio-covers and bio-filters to optimise CH4 oxidation

Collection and anaerobic digestion of residual mixed waste (what is left after recycling and composting household waste) should be promoted.

Gasification and/or pyrolysis of source separated organic waste should be promoted.

Anaerobic digestion of source-separated organic waste (domestic, commercial, industrial) should be promoted in conjunction with Incineration of source separated organic waste in dedicated biomass plant.

Potential land take required for construction of treatment facilities and infrastructure - promote brownfield over greenfield sites.

Landfill still required for final disposal but required capacity lower.

Potential to strengthen policies and guidance on remediation of contaminated land to address on site rather than remove.

Anticipated Environmental Effects
(of reduction measures)
on SEA Topics

Organic waste management by anaerobic digestion ( AD) and use of resultant methane in CHP most beneficial in terms of reducing GHG emissions from waste

Also most beneficial option for water, soil, air, human health, landscape, population and biodiversity factors.

Incineration of unprocessed waste to produce electricity is actually one of the more environmentally damaging methods of handling organic wastes.

Incineration increases CO2 emissions (as compared to AD/ CHP) and degrades local air quality.

Use of organic waste in dedicated biomass CHP also has implications for local air quality and emissions.

Waste prevention and minimisation is the best long term option, but requires coordination across all sectors.

SEA Comment

Government should consider prioritising or solely supporting those waste handling measures that minimise CO2 production.

Anaerobic Digestion and Combined Heat & Power should be supported to drive long-term integration and resultant CO2 gains over incineration.

Government should target local authorities on collection and separation of organic waste for composting, AD/ CHP and biomass.

Government should consider measures to ensure all products for sale in Scotland have recyclable/ biodegradable packaging.

Packaging should be minimised across all sectors.

Monitoring of impacts will be important, given extent of reliance on policy and emerging technology.