Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) of the Scottish Climate Change Bill: Consultation Proposals: Environmental Report

4. Key Environmental Issues

4.1 Background

4.1.1 Part 2 of Schedule 3 (in relation to Section 14) of the Environmental Assessment (Scotland) Act 2005 establishes that environmental reports should record,

" The relevant aspects of the current state of the environment and the likely evolution thereof without the implementation of the plan or programme."

Annex 1 (f) of the SEA Directive identifies the environmental topics which should be included and assessed (see Box 1).

4.2 Climatic Factors

4.2.1 Climatic factors in SEA can include a range of issues from emissions to adaptation, or flooding and drought risks. References to climatic factors in this SEA will focus on emissions reductions and the likely impacts of climate change across other SEA topics. Updated emissions data to 2005 are presented in Appendix C, in conjunction with other environmental baseline details.

4.2.2 The overall trend in Scottish GHG emissions since the base years of 1990 (for CO2, CH4 and N2O) and 1995 (for fluorinated gases) up until 2005, as reported in the Disaggregated Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory for Scotland (2007) ¹³, can be summarised as follows:

• total GHG emissions (expressed as CO2-equivalents) fell by 16%;
• CO2 emissions fell by 13%; CH4 emissions fell by 38% and N2O emissions fell by 21%;
• PFC emissions fell by 20%; HFC emissions increased 457% and SF6 emissions increased by 125%;
• the carbon sink function - which removes CO2 emissions from the atmosphere by sequestration in forests and soils - increased by 80%.

4.2.3 Whilst Scotland may be able to reduce its GHG emissions under the SCCB target, climate impacts are unlikely to be significantly affected due to the relatively low global emissions ratio (0.2%). There is a significant body of work on climate change scenarios and, as the world is already locked into some legacy of climate change, this SEA adopts the precautionary principle and considers that the UKCIP02 high emissions scenario ¹⁴ represents the most likely evolution of the climate, in the absence of the SCCB, with associated impacts for Scotland's environment.

Expected impacts in Scotland by the 2080s ( UKCIP02 High Emissions Scenario)¹⁵

• Annual temperatures averaged across Scotland will rise by up to 3.5ûC in the summer and 2.5ûC in the winter.
• Summers will become generally drier across Scotland. There may only be a slight reduction in rainfall in the north-west but as much as a 40% reduction in the south and east.
• Scotland's growing season will become longer, by between 30 and 80 days.
• Scotland's sea levels will rise, by up to around 600 mm around the mainland.
• Average snowfall levels will decrease, by up to 90% less depending on location, and snow-less winters may become normal in some parts.
• Scotland will have more severe extreme rainfall events, with rainfall in 24 hours from storms expected to occur on average every two years up by 25%, especially in the east.

4.2.4 Figure 4.1 below outlines IPCC/ UNEP projections on surface temperature to the year 2100, demonstrating little deviation in temperature projections to at least 2040, which supports the statement in Section 4.2.3 above.

Figure 4.1 Variations of Earth's Surface Temperature: Year 1000-2100

Source: IPCC/ UNEP Website available at http://www.ipcc.ch/graphics/index.htm

4.3 Key Issues for Scotland

4.3.1 The baseline information (presented in Appendix C) and the PPS review, along with the consultation responses from the scoping consultation and inputs from the Scottish Government, have helped identify the key environmental issues (with respect to climate and emissions reductions) facing Scotland. These are summarised in Table 4.1 below.

Table 4.1 Key Environmental & Climate Issues