Feasibility of extending SeabORD to the entire breeding season: study

Extension to include incubation phase of breeding season for Atlantic puffin, black-legged kittiwake, common guillemot and razorbill

Collation and synthesis of relevant empirical data, development of model equations, development of model code, model testing

12 months

£120k

High

Extension to include additional species for chick-rearing and incubation phases (European shag, northern gannet, herring gull, lesser black-backed gull and Manx shearwater)

Collation and synthesis of relevant empirical data, development of model equations, development of model code, model testing

18 months

£200k

High

Extension to include pre-laying and post-fledging for large gull species

Collation and synthesis of relevant empirical data, development of model equations, development of model code, model testing

6 months

£60k

*contingent on development of incubation and chick-rearing models

Medium

Incorporation of the Marine Scotland sandeel occupancy and density map (Langton et al. 2021) within SeabORD

OWEC

Medium

Future research for how the distribution and availability of key prey species may change over the lifespans of ORDs due to changing climate

OWEC

High

Future research comparing between sandeel distribution models and predator foraging sites to identify the key sandeel areas used by predators

Contemporaneous sampling of seabird foraging locations (from fine-scale GPS tracking data) and sandeel surveys

OWEC

High

Research to understand the re-distribution of prey availability due to OWF construction and operation

OWEC

High

Research to develop fine resolution spatially explicit maps for other prey species, particularly sprat and juvenile gadids

Marine Scotland Science

High

Empirical work to parameterise different scales of avoidance behaviour – micro, meso and macros – such that biologically appropriate displacement and barrier behaviours can be simulated within SeabORD

Model development to work with more realistic foraging tracks:

SMMR

Empirical quantification of avoidance rates:

ORJIP

High

Extension of current Monte Carlo approach to incorporate uncertainty in a much wider range of parameters and inputs

Desk-based adaptation of existing simulation code within SeabORD to include wider range of parameters and inputs

3-6 months

£10-30k

(dependent upon inclusion of other developments around improving uncertainty)

Medium

Further improvements to the computational efficiency of SeabORD

Desk-based improvements to efficiency of code

3 months

£30k

Adaptation of the calibration process to incorporate uncertainty, including the quantification of structural uncertainty, using emulation methods to conduct sensitivity analysis to identify the parameters and inputs to SeabORD that are most influential in determining variations in model outputs

Emulation, and associated history matching methods, sensitivity analysis

Local sensitivity analysis on 5 key model parameters to be completed within ORJIP/Carbon Trust QuMR project

Emulation and sensitivity analysis:

9 months

£50k

Medium

An updated literature review, and an associated expert elicitation exercise, should be used to update the values of the remaining parameters

Desk-based literature review and expert elicitation exercise

6 months

£35k

Medium

Implement HMMs to include environmental information and other ancillary data, defining multiple behavioural states, to simulate foraging trips, but without quantification of uncertainty

Existing GPS tracking data, established R packages

6 months

£30k

High

Development to allow for more realistic simulated trajectories of return foraging trips using continuous time models, with full quantification of uncertainty – incorporating measurement error, variable transit speeds, implement seasonality to alter central place foraging constraints over breeding season phases; more accurate estimates for time-energy budgets

Existing GPS tracking data, Integrated continuous time models, MCMC methods

12 months

£70k

High

Develop diffusion continuous time models to estimate foraging tracks and utilisation distributions for species and locations without local GPS tracking data including environmental drivers, full quantification of uncertainty in space use

Existing GPS tracking data, LdctM methods

12 months

£70k

High

Replacing all current mass survival relationship estimates within SeabORD with the corresponding estimates from Daunt et al (2018)

The uncertainties associated with the revised relationships should, alongside this, also be incorporated into SeabORD, via a simulated-based approach, and that the outputs of SeabORD should be revised to include additional metrics that characterise uncertainty

3 months

£20k

High

New empirical studies on mass change during the breeding season in Razorbills and other poorly studied species.

At appropriate colonies, catch and mark a large sample of adults over as broad a range of dates as can be achieved without undue disturbance, together with resighting or recapture effort in follow seasons to estimate survival in relation to mass at the end of the previous breeding season.

High

Development of non-breeding season model for common guillemots and razorbills

Collation and analysis of data, development of underpinning theory for parameterising an individual-based model for non-breeding season, model testing

12-15 months

£150k

High