Impact of climate change on seabird species off the east coast of Scotland and potential implications for environmental assessments: study

This study investigated the potential impacts of climate change on seabird distribution, abundance and demography off the east coast of Scotland, and examined integration of these climate models into standard population forecast models used in assessments for offshore wind developments.


Appendix A: Data used in modelling

Table 16. Selected breeding colonies on the East coast of Scotland to include in the demographic modelling with climate variables. Atlantic puffin ( ATPU), common guillemot ( COGU), European shag ( EUSH), northern gannet ( NOGU), razorbill ( RAZO), herring gull ( HEGU), great black-backed gull ( GBBG), black-legged kittiwake ( BLKI).
Species Colony name (SMP Site or Mastersite name) SMP Site or Mastersite? Years of data available for analyses of:
Abundance Productivity Survival
ATPU Bass Rock Site 3 0 0
ATPU Coquet Island Site 14 4 4
ATPU Craigleith Site 2 0 0
ATPU Fair Isle Site 1 32 0
ATPU Farne Islands Site 0 22 0
ATPU Fidra Site 9 0 0
ATPU Inchcolm Site 14 0 0
ATPU Inchkeith Site 16 0 0
ATPU Inchmickery Site 16 0 0
ATPU Isle of May Site 1 33 1
ATPU St Abb's Head NNR Site 27 0 0
ATPU The Lamb Site 7 0 0
BLKI Auskerry Site 12 0 0
BLKI Bass Rock Site 21 0 0
BLKI Boulby Cliffs Site 29 0 0
BLKI Brei Wick to Virdick Site 2 0 0
BLKI Buchan Ness to Collieston Site 0 23 0
BLKI Burga Stacks to Caves Site 4 0 0
BLKI Calders Geo Site 3 0 0
BLKI Castle Headland Site 18 0 0
BLKI Clett Head Site 3 3 0
BLKI Compass Head Site 6 8 1
BLKI Coquet Island Site 30 26 26
BLKI Costa Head Site 0 24 0
BLKI Craigleith Site 24 0 0
BLKI Cross-voe-sand to Caves Site 0 14 0
BLKI Cullernose Point Site 6 0 0
BLKI Dunnet Head RSPB Site 0 10 0
BLKI Dunstanburgh Castle Site 6 0 0
BLKI East Caithness Cliffs SPA Mastersite 0 9 0
BLKI East Yell Site 1 0 0
BLKI Fair Isle Site 5 33 1
BLKI Farne Islands Site 32 29 26
BLKI Fidra Site 31 0 0
BLKI Firth of Forth SPA Mastersite 21 30 17
BLKI Fitful Head Site 1 0 0
BLKI Flamborough Head and Bempton Cliffs Site 1 32 0
BLKI Foula Site 15 29 10
BLKI Fowlsheugh RSPB Site 1 31 0
BLKI Grand Hotel Site 14 0 0
BLKI Harbourside Houses Site 11 0 0
BLKI Hartlepool Fish Quay 1 Site 9 0 0
BLKI Hermaness Site 1 29 1
BLKI Hich Holm Site 2 3 0
BLKI Holm Mastersite 0 30 0
BLKI Hopeman Bay Mastersite 29 3 1
BLKI Horse Island; Colsay; Little and Ladies Holm to Fitful Head Mastersite 4 0 0
BLKI Huntress Row Site 5 0 0
BLKI Inchcolm Site 28 0 0
BLKI Inchkeith Site 33 0 0
BLKI Isle of May Site 33 33 30
BLKI Kettlaness Site 3 10 0
BLKI Lowestoft Site 28 32 24
BLKI Marsden Cliffs Site 20 2 2
BLKI Marwick Head SPA Mastersite 1 32 0
BLKI Maywick to Scalloway Mastersite 4 0 0
BLKI Mousa RSPB Site 7 0 0
BLKI Muckle Flugga Site 1 0 0
BLKI Mull Head - cliff-nesters Site 2 25 1
BLKI Nelson Pub and Foreshore Site 9 0 0
BLKI Ness of Ireland Site 2 0 0
BLKI No Ness to Levenwick and Boddam to Virkie Mastersite 11 23 5
BLKI North Caithness Cliffs SPA Mastersite 0 9 0
BLKI North Sutor to Shandwick Mastersite 23 29 20
BLKI Noss SPA Mastersite 3 32 1
BLKI Old Britannia Inn/Eastborough Site 10 0 0
BLKI Outer Brough Site 4 0 0
BLKI Outer Thames Estuary SPA Mastersite 13 0 0
BLKI Papa Westray (North Hill and Holm) SPA Mastersite 8 26 2
BLKI Portknockie Site 27 0 0
BLKI Reawick Mastersite 6 0 0
BLKI River Tyne to Seaton Sluice Mastersite 11 27 8
BLKI Row Head Site 1 28 1
BLKI Royal Hotel Site 5 0 0
BLKI Saltburn Cliffs (Huntcliff) Site 28 23 18
BLKI Sands of Forvie Site 29 20 14
BLKI Sandside Site 5 0 0
BLKI Saxavord Site 1 0 0
BLKI Scarvister to Culswick Mastersite 0 17 0
BLKI SE Yell (inc. Burravoe) Site 3 12 0
BLKI Sea Cadets Site 10 0 0
BLKI Siggar Ness Site 1 0 0
BLKI Skeld; Westerwick and Culswick Site 3 0 0
BLKI Spa Bridge Site 7 0 0
BLKI St Abb's Head NNR Site 33 32 30
BLKI St. Ninian's Isle Site 7 0 0
BLKI Stenness Site 1 0 0
BLKI Sulman's Site 2 0 0
BLKI Sumburgh Head Site 5 33 4
BLKI Swallow Cove - Crawton Site 1 0 0
BLKI The Lamb Site 29 0 0
BLKI The Poil Site 3 0 0
BLKI Town Hall Site 10 0 0
BLKI Troswick Ness Site 13 10 2
BLKI Troup; Pennan and Lion's Heads Site 0 9 0
BLKI Vaila Site 4 0 0
BLKI West Burra Site 4 0 0
BLKI West Burra - Shetland Mastersite 0 23 0
COGU Bass Rock Site 21 0 0
COGU Craigleith Site 26 0 0
COGU Deerness Mastersite 0 25 0
COGU Fair Isle Site 1 32 0
COGU Farne Islands Site 32 9 5
COGU Fidra Site 31 0 0
COGU Flamborough Head and Bempton Cliffs Site 0 18 0
COGU Fowlsheugh RSPB Site 22 0 0
COGU Hermaness Site 3 0 0
COGU Inchcolm Site 17 0 0
COGU Inchkeith Site 33 0 0
COGU Isle of May Site 33 33 28
COGU Marwick Head SPA Mastersite 0 30 0
COGU North Sutor to Shandwick Mastersite 0 17 0
COGU Papa Westray (North Hill and Holm) SPA Mastersite 2 27 1
COGU Sands of Forvie Site 21 0 0
COGU St Abb's Head NNR Site 27 4 2
COGU Sumburgh Head Site 12 30 6
COGU The Lamb Site 31 0 0
EUSH Auskerry Site 9 0 0
EUSH Bass Rock Site 26 0 0
EUSH Carr Craig Site 32 0 0
EUSH Craigleith Site 31 0 0
EUSH Cumlewick Ness Site 4 0 0
EUSH Fair Isle Site 0 33 0
EUSH Farne Islands Site 32 29 28
EUSH Fidra Site 33 2 2
EUSH Foula Site 0 19 0
EUSH Haystack Site 22 0 0
EUSH Hermaness Site 4 5 0
EUSH Holm Of Papa Westray Site 3 1 0
EUSH Hopeman Bay Mastersite 17 0 0
EUSH Howick - Cullornose Point - Dunstanburgh Castle Point Mastersite 6 0 0
EUSH Inchcolm Site 27 0 0
EUSH Inchkeith Site 33 0 0
EUSH Inchmickery Site 28 1 1
EUSH Isle of May Site 33 33 32
EUSH Kettlaness Site 3 2 0
EUSH Mousa RSPB Site 10 4 2
EUSH Muckle Roe Site 2 0 0
EUSH Noness Site 27 4 4
EUSH North Hill RSPB; Papa Westray Site 7 12 6
EUSH North Sutor Of Cromarty/Castlecraig Site 24 27 23
EUSH Noss Site 31 3 3
EUSH Portknockie Site 27 0 0
EUSH Reawick Mastersite 3 0 0
EUSH Sands of Forvie Site 19 0 0
EUSH Sandwick to Virkie: Boddam to Virkie within SPA Site 9 0 0
EUSH SE Yell (inc. Burravoe) Site 2 4 0
EUSH Silwick - Westerwick Site 2 0 0
EUSH Skeld; Westerwick and Culswick Site 3 0 0
EUSH Skelda Ness-Burga Stacks (Sh.) (all inc. traces) Site 1 0 0
EUSH St Abb's Head NNR Site 33 29 30
EUSH Strathlene to Portknockie Mastersite 11 0 0
EUSH Sumburgh Head Site 31 31 30
EUSH The Lamb Site 31 0 0
EUSH Troswick Beach to Boddam Site 10 0 0
EUSH Troswick Ness Site 10 5 2
EUSH Vaila Site 3 0 0
EUSH West Of The Nev - Stead Of Culswick Site 1 0 0
EUSH Whaness Site 0 10 0
GBBG Auskerry Site 10 0 0
GBBG Bass Rock Site 5 0 0
GBBG Birsay Moors RSPB Site 6 2 0
GBBG Car Craig; Eyebroughy and Haystack Mastersite 18 0 0
GBBG Ceann Leathad nam Bo 1 Site 11 0 0
GBBG Ceann Leathad nam Bo 2 Site 11 0 0
GBBG Cleit Bheag Site 9 0 0
GBBG Craigleith Site 31 0 0
GBBG Fair Isle Site 8 0 0
GBBG Farne Islands Site 22 0 0
GBBG Fidra Site 31 0 0
GBBG Fowlsheugh RSPB Site 4 0 0
GBBG Halberry Head Site 8 0 0
GBBG Havergate Island Site 8 5 1
GBBG Helman Head Site 9 0 0
GBBG Hich Holm Site 4 0 0
GBBG Hobbister RSPB Site 7 2 0
GBBG Holburn Head 2 Site 11 0 0
GBBG Holm Of Papa Westray Site 3 2 0
GBBG Inchcolm Site 23 0 0
GBBG Inchgarvie Site 23 0 0
GBBG Inchkeith Site 22 0 0
GBBG Inchmickery Site 25 1 1
GBBG Isle of May Site 27 4 2
GBBG Latheronwheel Site 9 0 0
GBBG Little Clett Site 10 0 0
GBBG Llama Farm Site 11 0 0
GBBG Loch of Strathbeg RSPB Site 10 6 3
GBBG Melvich 1 Site 7 0 0
GBBG Mousa RSPB Site 5 3 1
GBBG Nigg Ferry Site 5 0 0
GBBG Nigg Oil Terminal Site 17 15 11
GBBG North Hill RSPB; Papa Westray Site 21 14 11
GBBG Noss SPA Mastersite 32 17 17
GBBG Occumster Site 11 0 0
GBBG Ord of Caithness 1 Site 9 0 0
GBBG Ord of Caithness 2 Site 4 0 0
GBBG Orford Ness 1 Site 8 0 0
GBBG Poll Gallon Site 9 0 0
GBBG Sands of Forvie Site 28 0 0
GBBG Sarclet Head Site 10 0 0
GBBG St Johns Point Site 9 0 0
GBBG St. Ninian's Isle Site 1 0 0
GBBG Stack of Ulbster Site 6 0 0
GBBG The Brough Site 11 0 0
GBBG The Lamb Site 23 0 0
GBBG Whaness Site 0 10 0
HEGU Bass Rock Site 5 0 0
HEGU Birsay Moors RSPB Site 4 0 0
HEGU Blakeney Point Site 24 5 1
HEGU Boulby Cliffs Site 29 0 0
HEGU Car Craig; Eyebroughy and Haystack Mastersite 26 0 0
HEGU Coquet Island Site 30 9 8
HEGU Craigleith Site 3 0 0
HEGU Eyebroughy Site 13 0 0
HEGU Fair Isle Site 6 0 0
HEGU Farne Islands Site 9 0 0
HEGU Fidra Site 18 0 0
HEGU Flamborough Head and Bempton Cliffs Site 0 10 0
HEGU Fowlsheugh RSPB Site 1 3 0
HEGU Freiston Shore RSPB Site 8 1 1
HEGU Havergate Island Site 19 5 5
HEGU Hobbister RSPB Site 8 1 0
HEGU Holkham NNR Site 9 2 1
HEGU Hollesley Marsh Site 2 1 0
HEGU Holm Of Papa Westray Site 2 3 0
HEGU Hunstanton Town Site 11 11 7
HEGU Inchgarvie Site 25 0 0
HEGU Inchmickery Site 22 1 1
HEGU Isle of May Site 22 19 17
HEGU Long Craig Site 17 0 0
HEGU Longnewton Res. Site 15 0 0
HEGU Minsmere Scrape & Beach Site 14 0 0
HEGU Mousa RSPB Site 5 1 0
HEGU Nigg Ferry Site 5 0 0
HEGU Nigg Oil Terminal Site 17 0 0
HEGU North Hill RSPB; Papa Westray Site 13 9 4
HEGU Noss Site 32 19 18
HEGU Orford Ness 1 Site 19 0 0
HEGU Outer Trial Bank Site 19 0 0
HEGU Saltburn Cliffs (Huntcliff) Site 28 0 0
HEGU Sands of Forvie Site 22 0 0
HEGU Scolt Head Island NNR Site 9 4 2
HEGU Snettisham RSPB Site 9 1 0
HEGU St Abb's Head NNR Site 33 0 0
HEGU St Cyrus NNR Site 23 0 0
HEGU St Fergus Gas Terminal Site 6 0 0
HEGU Stiffkey Site 1 0 0
HEGU The Lamb Site 12 0 0
HEGU Titchwell Marsh RSPB Site 8 2 1
NOGA Fair Isle Site 31 32 26
NOGA Flamborough Head and Bempton Cliffs Site 13 21 8
NOGA Foula Site 4 0 0
NOGA Hermaness; Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA Mastersite 0 29 0
NOGA Noss SPA Mastersite 1 32 0
NOGA Sule Skerry Site 2 0 0
NOGA Troup; Pennan and Lion's Heads SPA Mastersite 13 21 7
NOGA West Westray SPA Mastersite 12 14 8
RAZO Bass Rock Site 18 0 0
RAZO Boulby Cliffs Site 18 0 0
RAZO Craigleith Site 25 0 0
RAZO Fair Isle Site 0 28 0
RAZO Farne Islands Site 21 19 13
RAZO Fidra Site 27 2 1
RAZO Flamborough Head and Bempton Cliffs Site 0 10 0
RAZO Hermaness Site 3 0 0
RAZO Inchcolm Site 21 0 0
RAZO Inchkeith Site 31 0 0
RAZO Isle of May Site 33 33 29
RAZO Marsden Cliffs Site 4 0 0
RAZO North Sutor to Shandwick Mastersite 0 21 0
RAZO Papa Westray (North Hill and Holm) SPA Mastersite 2 13 1
RAZO Portknockie Site 5 0 0
RAZO Saltburn Cliffs (Huntcliff) Site 6 0 0
RAZO Sands of Forvie Site 26 0 0
RAZO St Abb's Head NNR Site 19 3 1
RAZO Sumburgh Head Site 9 8 6
RAZO The Lamb Site 25 0 0
Table 17. Detailed summary of climate/weather variables used to correlate against seabird demographic parameters identified in Web of Science literature search ("seabirds and productivity and survival and breeding success and climate"). BLKW = black-legged kittiwake. IOM = Isle of May.
Demographic rate and Species Metrics Ref
Survival (fledglings, post-recruitment) BLKW (Alaska)
  • Winter PDO (Nov-Feb prior to BS, averaged monthly data)
  • Winter ENSO 3.4 index values (Nov-Feb prior to BS, averaged monthly data)
  • Mean monthly autumn (sept-oct), winter (nov-feb) and spring (mar-apr) wind magnitudes
  • Mean monthly SST (nov-feb)
(McKnight et al. 2019)
Chick growth and survival BLKW (Norway)
  • Weather station data hourly for wind speed and temp, daily ppt:
  • Effective temp (chill factor using eqn for temp and wind speed)
  • Mean wind speed
  • Wind direction (NE, S, NW)
  • Prevailing wind direction in 5d periods (direction with >50% prevalence)
  • Day with highest ppt in 5d periods
(Christensen-Dalsgaard et al. 2018)
Adult survival (in relation to migration) Eiders (Canada, Svalbard, Norway)
  • Winter NAO (from monthly values, Dec-Mar)
  • Time lags of 1, 2, 3 years
(Guery et al. 2017)
Survival and breeding success European storm petrel (Spain)
  • Mean monthly NAO for winter (Dec-Mar)
  • Mean monthly NAO for spring (apr-Jun)
(Zuberogoitia et al. 2016)
Breeding: hatching date, egg size, hatching success, fledging success Lesser noddies (Seychelles)
  • Chlorophyll (weekly averaged then found 'peak productivity' over Apr-Jun and Jun-Aug)
  • SST (weekly averaged over Apr-Jun and Jun-Aug)
  • Wind speed (weekly averaged over Apr-Jun and Jun-Aug; and 'extreme wind' either very low or very high)
(Monticelli et al. 2014)
Breeding success (hatching success, chick growth, chick survival) Wilson's storm petrel (Antarctic) All at nest sites:
  • Air temperature
  • Wind speed
  • Wind direction
  • Precipitation
  • Snow cover
(Michielsen et al. 2019)
Adult survival, breeding success (Cory's shearwater, Mediterranean)
  • SOI (annual mean – Jan-Dec)
  • NAO (annual winter NAO – Dec-Mar, 1 yr lag)
  • Number of hurricanes during study period
(Genovart et al. 2013)
Breeding success, chick diets, timing of breeding Rhinoceros auklet, Japanese cormorant, black-tailed gulls (Japan)
  • Average monthly air temp (Feb-Jul)
  • Monthly rainfall
  • Total snowfall in March
  • Mean monthly SST
  • Current
  • Chlorophyll in spring (mar-may)
  • PDO (Pacific Decadal Observation)
  • NPI (North Pacific Index)
  • AO (Arctic Oscillation)
(Watanuki and Ito 2012)
Adult survival, breeding success, chick diet, chick mass Thick-billed murres (Canada)
  • NAO annual and winter (Dec-Mar)
  • AO monthly mean – non-breeding (sep-apr)
  • Lag effects of up to 3 years for above
  • Monthly mean SST (jan-Mar & apr)
  • Mean min temp (monthly) – winter (jan-mar)
  • Mean monthly ppt - winter (jan-mar)
  • Wind speeds (monthly means BS – May-aug)
(Smith and Gaston 2012)
Adult survival Common eiders (Baltic)
  • NAO (annual index, with lags up to 4 years)
(Hario et al. 2009)
Breeding (first egg dates, clutch sizes, egg volume) Black-tailed gulls (Japan)
  • SST anomalies (difference to long-term mean, March, April)
(Tomita et al. 2009)
Timing of arrival to breeding grounds Little terns (Finland)
  • NAO (Apr-May, May, June)
  • Air temperature (Spring, based on earliest sighting and earliest egg laying dates, split into 10, 20 or 30 day periods)
(Pakanen 2018)
Breeding success Northern fulmar (Orkney)
  • NAO (winter, current and lag 1 year)
(Lewis et al. 2009)
Breeding – chick diet Shags (IOM)
  • SST (mean of Feb + Mar)
  • Wind speeds (mean daily wind speed)
  • Precipitation (total daily rainfall)
(Howells et al. 2017)
Breeding (nest numbers, habitat use of nests, brood size, breeding density, fecundity – proportion of juveniles) Great cormorant (Iceland)
  • Subpolar gyre index
  • SST
  • AMO
  • NAO
  • Average monthly temp (jan-feb)
(Gardarsson and Jonsson 2019)
Juvenile survival Emperor penguins (Antarctica)
  • Southern Annular Mode (SOM, Jul-Dec)
  • Sea ice concentration
(Abadi et al. 2017)
Foraging effort Shags (IOM)
  • Wind speed (mean daily wind speed, mean daily wind direction – E or W of N)
(Lewis et al. 2015)
Adult mortality (wreck event) Brünnich's guillemots (Newfoundland)
  • Sea ice (timing of blocking of coastal leads)
  • Onshore winds (NE)
(Tranquilla et al. 2010)
Adult survival and productivity Whiskered auklets (Alaska)
  • Aleutian Low Pressure climate index (Dec-Mar)
  • SST (Summer – Apr-Aug; Winter – Aug-Apr)
  • PDO (Aug-Apr)
  • North Pacific Index NPI (Aug-Apr)
(Jones et al. 2007)
Adult, 1st year, 2nd year survival Shags (IOM)
  • Daily weather from WS for February
  • Mean daily minimum air temperature
  • Total precipitation
  • Summed onshore wind component (easterly component – mean daily wind speed(knots) x sin(mean daily wind direction; set to 0 if wind direction between 180-360 [westerly] – then summed over all days in February)
(Frederiksen et al. 2008)

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Email: ScotMER@gov.scot

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