Summary Statistics for Attainment and Initial Leaver Destinations, No. 4: 2022 Edition

Chapter 3: School Leaver Destinations

• 95.5 per cent of 2020/21 school leavers were in a positive initial destination (93.3 per cent for 2019/20). This is the highest since consistent records began in 2009/10.
• 45.1 per cent of school leavers were in Higher Education (the highest proportion of all categories, and the highest percentage since consistent records began in 2009/10).
• The percentage of school leavers in a positive initial destination has increased in 2020/21 for leavers from both the (20%) most deprived and (20%) least deprived areas compared to 2019/20.
• The gap between the two groups has decreased from 6.3 percentage points in 2019/20 to 4.8 percentage points in 2020/21 (the lowest it has been since consistent records began in 2009/10).

As described in section 1.1.1, the 2019/20 and 2020/21 figures on school leavers' initial destinations will reflect the impact of the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) on choices made by, and opportunities available to, leavers in these years.

Particular care should therefore be taken when interpreting changes between 2019/20, 2020/21, and other years. The pandemic will have been at least partly responsible for the relatively low proportion of 2019/20 school leavers in a positive destination compared to surrounding years and the size of the latest increase in 2020/21 should be interpreted with this in mind.

3.1 Destinations of School Leavers

Table 1 shows that 95.5 per cent of all 2020/21 school leavers were in a positive initial destination. This was higher than in 2019/20 (93.3 per cent) and the highest since consistent records began in 2009/10.

In 2020/21, 68.4 per cent of school leavers were in Higher or Further Education approximately 3 months after leaving school. This was lower than in 2019/20 (72.2 per cent) but higher than in 2018/19 (67.6 per cent). This drop between 2019/20 and 2020/21 was driven by a drop in the proportion of school leavers in Further Education. Between 2019/20 and 2020/21 the proportion of school leavers in Further Education decreased from 28.1 per cent to 23.3 per cent – the lowest on record. Over the same period (2019/20 to 2020/21) the proportion of leavers in Higher Education increased from 44.2 per cent to 45.1 per cent – the highest proportion since 2009/10.

The percentage of school leavers in Employment has increased from 16.2 per cent in 2019/20 to 22.6 per cent in 2020/21. This increase follows a large drop from 22.9 per cent in 2018/19 to the record low figure of 16.2 per cent in 2019/20, reflecting the impact of the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) on school leavers' choices and opportunities. The subsequent increase in 2020/21 brings the proportion of school leavers entering employment back into line with pre-pandemic figures.

The percentage of school leavers who were Unemployed has decreased from 6.0 per cent for 2019/20 to 4.2 per cent for 2020/21 school leavers.

Table 1: Percentage of school leavers by initial destination category, 2015/16 to 2020/21 [note 1] [note 2] [note 3] [note 4] [note 5]

Destination Category	2015/16	2016/17	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21
Higher Education	40.3	40.7	41.1	40.3	44.2	45.1
Further Education	26.6	26.8	26.5	27.3	28.1	23.3
Training	2.3	2.2	1.9	3.5	3.7	3.7
Employment	22.3	22.0	22.7	22.9	16.2	22.6
Voluntary Work	0.5	0.5	0.7	0.6	0.5	0.4
Activity Agreement	1.0	1.2	1.2	[z]	[z]	[z]
Personal Skills Development	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.8	0.5
Positive Destinations	93.5	93.9	94.6	95.0	93.3	95.5
Unemployed Seeking	5.0	4.4	3.7	3.1	4.1	2.5
Unemployed Not Seeking	1.2	1.4	1.3	1.4	1.8	1.7
Unknown	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.7	0.3
Other Destinations	6.5	6.1	5.4	5.0	6.7	4.5
Number of Leavers	52,305	51,300	49,748	49,760	47,454	50,746

Note 1: From 2018/19, support previously recorded as Activity Agreements is recorded in the Training category. As a result, the proportion of school leavers recorded in the Training category is not directly comparable prior to and post 2018/19. For more information see section 7.3.1.

Note 2: The 'Unknown' status in 2019/20 may be affected by local partnerships' ability to track school leavers through home visits during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Note 3: Percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.

Note 4: Data from 2009/10 to 2020/21 are available in the supplementary tables.

Note 5: [z] = not applicable (see section 7.3.2 for full list of symbols used in tables).

3.2 Destinations by Stage

Chart 2 shows the initial destinations of 2020/21 school leavers by stage of leaving. It shows that:

• the majority of S6 leavers entered Higher Education (65.7 per cent);
• the most common initial destination for S5 leavers was Employment (36.4 per cent) followed by Further Education (35.0 per cent);
• S4 leavers were most likely to enter Further Education (49.0 per cent).

Note 6: 'Other positive' includes Personal Skills Development, Training and Voluntary Work.

Note 7: 'Other destination' includes Unemployed Seeking, Unemployed Not Seeking and Unknown.

3.3 Destinations by Deprivation

Chart 3 shows that the percentage of school leavers in a positive initial destination has increased in 2020/21 compared to 2019/20, for leavers from both the (20%) most deprived and (20%) least deprived areas, based on the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) (see section 7.2.4).

Between 2019/20 and 2020/21 the proportion of school leavers in a positive initial destination has increased by more amongst leavers from the most deprived areas than it has amongst those from the least deprived areas. This has led to a decrease in the deprivation gap, from 6.3 percentage points in 2019/20 to 4.8 percentage points in 2020/21 – the smallest gap on record. It should be noted that the size of the 2019/20 deprivation gap was likely affected by the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19). Interpretation of the change between 2019/20 and 2020/21 should bear this in mind.

Time series data of destinations by deprivation (available in Table 2 in the supplementary tables) suggests that the narrowing of the gap between 2019/20 and 2020/21 is largely due to the proportions of school leavers entering employment. Section 3.1 showed that the proportion of all school leavers entering employment increased by 6.4 percentage points between 2019/20 and 2020/21. Whilst the proportion of school leavers entering employment increased across all SIMD groups between 2019/20 and 2020/21, the size of the increase was greater amongst school leavers from the most deprived areas (6.6 percentage points) than amongst those from the least deprived areas (4.4 percentage points).

Table 2 provides a breakdown of initial school leaver destinations by SIMD for 2020/21. It shows, for example, that pupils from the most deprived areas continue to be less likely to enter Higher Education than those from the least deprived areas.

In 2020/21, the most common destination for leavers from the most deprived areas was Further Education at 33.8 per cent.

In 2020/21, 6.6 per cent of leavers from the most deprived areas were unemployed, compared to 2.3 per cent of leavers from the least deprived areas.

Note 8: pp = percentage point difference between most and least deprived SIMD quintile

Note 9: Based on SIMD 2009 for 2009/10 and 2010/11, SIMD 2012 for 2011/12 to 2015/16, SIMD 2016 for 2016/17 to 2019/20 and SIMD 2020 for 2020/21. More information can be found on the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation

Table 2: Percentage of school leavers by initial destination category by SIMD, 2020/21 [note 10] [note 11] [note 12] [note 13]

2020/21 Initial Destination	0-20% (Most Deprived)	20-40%	40-60%	60-80%	80-100% (Least Deprived)	Percentage point gap	Total
Higher Education	29.2	36.5	43.9	52.1	65.1	35.9	45.1
Further Education	33.8	27.8	22.5	18.4	13.0	-20.8	23.3
Training	6.9	5.0	2.7	2.2	1.3	-5.5	3.7
Employment	21.4	24.3	26.1	23.5	17.7	-3.7	22.6
Voluntary Work	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.4	[low]	0.4
Personal Skills Development	1.0	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.1	-0.9	0.5
Positive Destinations	92.8	94.5	95.9	96.8	97.6	4.8	95.5
Unemployed Seeking	4.3	3.0	2.4	1.7	1.1	-3.1	2.5
Unemployed Not Seeking	2.4	2.1	1.5	1.3	1.1	-1.3	1.7
Unknown	0.6	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	-0.4	0.3
Other Destinations	7.2	5.5	4.1	3.2	2.4	-4.8	4.5
Number of Leavers	10,916	9,888	9,744	10,312	9,886		50,746

Note 10: Based on Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2020.

Note 11: The percentage point gap measures the difference between the most and least deprived pupils.

Note 12: Percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.

Note 13: [low] = value less than 0.05%. (See section 7.3.2 for full list of symbols used in tables.)

3.4 Destinations by Pupil Characteristics

Table 3 shows the percentage of school leavers who entered a positive initial destination by various characteristics.

The percentage of 2020/21 school leavers in positive initial destinations has increased for almost all groups, compared to 2019/20.

School leavers in 2020/21 with an Additional Support Need (ASN) were less likely to go on to a positive initial destination, compared to leavers without a recorded ASN (92.8 per cent compared to 97.0 per cent) – a result consistent with previous years. These statistics relate to leavers from mainstream schools only; similar statistics relating to destinations of mainstream and special school leavers combined are available in Supplementary Table L3.1.

The proportions of school leavers in a positive destination increased for most ethnic groups between 2019/20 and 2020/21. The highest proportion of school leavers in a positive destination in 2020/21 was amongst the African / Black / Caribbean group.

Females continue to be more likely to enter positive destinations than males: 96.2 per cent of females and 94.7 per cent of males entered a positive destination in 2020/21. This result is consistent with previous years.

Remote Rural areas had the highest proportion of leavers in positive destinations in 2020/21 (96.7 per cent), whilst Remote Small Towns had the lowest (94.7 per cent).

More information on destinations by pupil characteristics is available in the supplementary tables.

Table 3: Percentage of school leavers in a positive initial destination, by pupil characteristic, 2015/16 to 2020/21 [note 14] [note 15] [note 16] [note 17] [note 18]

Pupil Characteristic	2015/16	2016/17	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21
Sex
Male	92.6	92.9	93.5	94.2	92.1	94.7
Female	94.4	94.9	95.6	95.9	94.6	96.2
Ethnicity
White - Scottish	93.4	93.7	94.4	94.9	93.2	95.5
White - non-Scottish	94.0	94.7	95.1	95.8	93.3	95.1
Mixed or multiple ethnic groups	92.8	94.9	95.5	93.8	92.3	96.5
Asian - Indian	[c]	[c]	97.2	97.2	[c]	[c]
Asian - Pakistani	93.6	96.5	95.8	97.1	97.2	96.7
Asian - Chinese	[c]	[c]	98.0	[c]	[c]	[c]
Asian - Other	95.9	96.4	97.0	[c]	95.0	97.0
African/ Black/ Caribbean	93.8	95.3	96.9	96.4	94.7	97.5
All other categories	93.1	93.7	91.7	93.7	93.4	94.9
Not Disclosed/Not known	92.3	92.7	91.5	92.8	91.2	92.7
Urban/Rural
Large Urban Areas	92.4	93.0	93.6	95.0	93.1	95.6
Other Urban Areas	93.8	93.4	94.4	94.5	92.7	94.9
Accessible Small Towns	94.1	94.5	94.8	95.7	94.2	95.7
Remote Small Towns	94.6	94.7	95.0	94.9	92.9	94.7
Accessible Rural	94.2	95.5	95.9	96.1	94.7	96.5
Remote Rural	94.7	96.0	96.7	95.8	94.5	96.7
Additional Support Needs
ASN	89.1	89.8	90.9	91.9	89.6	92.8
No ASN	94.8	95.3	96.0	96.5	95.4	97.0
All Leavers	93.5	93.9	94.6	95.0	93.3	95.5

Note 14: Some categories have been grouped together due to small numbers. Some categories (typically 'Asian – Indian', 'Asian – Chinese' contain between 100-200 leavers and due to relatively small numbers may be subject to fluctuation. Comparisons between groups should take this into account.

Note 15: The 'African/ Black/ Caribbean' category includes 'African', 'African - Other', and the 'Caribbean or Black' categories.

Note 16: 'All other categories' includes 'Other - other' and 'Other - Arab'.

Note 17: Pupils who have a Coordinated Support Plan (CSP), Individualised Educational Programme (IEP) or Child's Plan are assessed or declared disabled or have another need.

Note 18: [c] = value suppressed to protect against the risk of disclosure of personal information. (See section 7.3.2 for full list of symbols used in tables.)