Summary statistics for attainment and initial leaver destinations, no. 6: 2024 edition

Section 2. The school leaver cohort

Section 2.1 Key points

• 54,743 pupils left school in 2022-23 – a decrease from 55,237 school leavers in 2021-22, but the second largest school leaver cohort since 2009-10.
• 57.1 per cent of the 2022-23 school leaver cohort were in S6, down from 59.8 per cent in 2021-22.
• 28.5 per cent were S5 leavers (up from 27.7 per cent in 2021-22) and 14.4 per cent were S4 leavers (up from 12.4 per cent in 2021-22).

The statistics in section 2 refer to all school leavers from mainstream schools, including S3, S4, S5, S6 and ‘other’ stages. These are also the leavers referred to in the statistics in section 3 (destinations), section 4 (attainment in National Qualifications) and section 6 (additional qualifications).

Statistics on destinations and attainment in National Qualifications that also include leavers from Scotland’s publicly-funded special schools are available in the supplementary tables.

Section 2.2 The size and composition of the school leaver cohort

The 2022-23 school leaver cohort was 54,743 pupils. It is the second largest leaver cohort since 2009-10, when the current time series started. It has decreased by 494 pupils from 2021-22 (when it was at its largest since 2009-10 at 55,237).

The biggest increase between 2021-22 and 2022-23 – in absolute numbers – was in S4 leavers, which rose from 6,863 leavers in 2021-22 to 7,890 in 2022-23, an increase of 1,027 pupils. S5 leaver numbers increased by 276 pupils (from 15,308 in 2021-22 to 15,584 in 2022-23) while S6 leaver numbers decreased, falling by 1,794 (from 33,039 in 2021-22 to 31,245 in 2022-23).

As Chart 1a shows, the size of the school leaver cohort fluctuates each year. It is affected by both the number of pupils starting the relevant stages (e.g. S4, S5 and S6) each year, and also the decisions then made by pupils on whether to leave school that year, or to continue on to the next school year. Almost all S6 pupils in any academic year will leave school during or at the end of that year.

Chart 1b shows the percentage of school leavers by stage, between 2018-19 and 2022-23. In 2022-23 the percentage of all leavers who are from S6 has decreased compared to 2021-22, while the percentage of leavers from S4 and S5 has risen.

A little under three-fifths (57.1 per cent) of 2022-23 school leavers left in S6, a decrease from 59.8 per cent in 2021-22. Over a quarter (28.5 per cent) of 2022-23 school leavers left in S5 (an increase from 27.7 per cent in 2021-22) and 14.4 per cent left in S4 (an increase from 12.4 per cent in 2021-22). Less than 0.1 per cent of 2022-23 school leavers left in S3 or another stage (similar to 2021-22).

This is the second year in succession in which the proportion of school leavers from S6 has fallen and the proportions from S4 and S5 have increased. The proportion of school leavers from S6 is now at its lowest level since 2009-10. The proportion leaving in S5 is at the highest level on record (since 2009-10) and the proportion leaving in S4 is at the highest level since 2010-11. A full time series for 2009-10 to 2022-23 can be found in the supplementary tables.

Comparing the leaver cohort to the pupil census from September 2023 suggests that a larger proportion of S4 and S5 pupils left school during or at the end of 2022-23 than has been seen in recent years.

The larger proportion of S4 and S5 leavers this year compared to recent years – and the smaller proportion of S6 leavers – may have an effect on the destinations and attainment of 2022-23 leavers compared to 2021-22 and earlier years. For example, it is unlikely that an individual would be able to achieve a qualification at SCQF level 7 if they were an S4 leaver.