Summary statistics for attainment and initial leaver destinations, no. 6: 2024 edition

Section 3. School leaver initial destinations

Section 3.1 Key points

• 95.9 per cent of 2022-23 school leavers were in a positive initial destination. This is a small increase from 2021-22 (95.7 per cent) and the highest figure since consistent records began in 2009-10.
• The most common initial destination was Higher Education, with 40.3 per cent of leavers in this category. This is a decrease from 2021-22 (41.2 per cent).
• 24.3 per cent of leavers were in Employment. This is a decrease from 2021-22 (25.1 per cent).
• The percentage of school leavers in a positive initial destination has increased for leavers from the (20%) most deprived areas and slightly decreased for those from the (20%) least deprived areas, compared to 2021-22.
• The gap between the two groups has decreased from 4.4 percentage points in 2021-22 to 3.7 percentage points in 2022-23, the lowest it has been since consistent records began in 2009-10.

As described in section 1.6, the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) will have had an impact on the initial destination choices made by, and opportunities available to, school leavers. The greatest effect of the pandemic on school leaver destinations is likely to have been seen in 2019-20. However, it is likely that there has been some ongoing impact on the destinations of some 2020-21, 2021-22 and 2022-23 school leavers. The impacts of COVID-19 should be kept in mind when interpreting changes between 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22 and 2022-23, and when comparing these to other years.

The statistics in section 3 refer to all school leavers from mainstream schools.

Section 3.2 Initial destinations of school leavers

Table 1 shows that 95.9 per cent of all 2022-23 school leavers were in a positive initial destination. This was higher than in 2021-22 (95.7 per cent) and the highest since consistent records began in 2009-10.

The proportion of school leavers in Higher Education decreased from 41.2 per cent in 2021-22 to 40.3 per cent in 2022-23. This brings the proportion of school leavers in Higher Education in 2022-23 back into line with figures seen before the COVID-19 pandemic.

The proportion of school leavers in Further Education increased from 25.5 per cent in 2021-22 to 26.6 per cent in 2022-23. This also brings the proportion of school leavers in Further Education in 2022-23 more into line with figures seen before the pandemic.

Combining the results for these two categories shows that 66.9 per cent of 2022-23 school leavers were in Higher or Further Education three months after the end of the school year. This is a slight increase from 2021-22 (66.7 per cent), driven by the increase in the proportion of leavers in Further Education.

The percentage of school leavers in Employment three months after leaving school decreased from 25.1 per cent in 2021-22 to 24.3 per cent in 2022-23, a fall of 0.8 percentage points. Despite this, it is the second highest proportion since consistent records began in 2009-10.

The percentage of school leavers who were Unemployed (either Unemployed Seeking or Unemployed Not Seeking) decreased slightly from 3.9 per cent in 2021-22 to 3.8 per cent for 2022-23 school leavers. This is the lowest proportion since consistent records began.

Note 1: The 'Unknown' status in 2019-20 may have been affected by local partnerships' ability to track school leavers through home visits during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Note 2: Percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.

Note 3: Data from 2009-10 to 2022-23 are available in the supplementary tables.

Note 4: [z] = not applicable (see Section 7 for a full list of symbols used in the tables).

The composition of the school leaver cohort each year is likely to influence the percentages of total school leavers in each destination. The most common initial destination for leavers varies by stage of leaving (see section 3.3). As noted in section 2, the 2022-23 leaver cohort had a lower than usual proportion of S6 leavers, and higher than usual proportions of S4 and S5 leavers. This change in the composition of the leaver cohort in 2022-23 is likely to be the reason for some of the changes seen in the overall proportions entering each initial destination compared to previous years.

Section 3.3 Initial destinations by stage of leaving

Chart 2 shows the initial destinations of 2022-23 school leavers by stage of leaving. It shows that:

• the majority of S6 leavers entered Higher Education (63.7 per cent);
• the most common initial destination for S5 leavers was Further Education (37.4 per cent) followed closely by Employment (36.0 per cent);
• over half of S4 leavers entered Further Education (52.1 per cent).

Note 5: ‘Other positive’ includes Personal Skills Development, Training and Voluntary Work.

Note 6: ‘Other destination’ includes Unemployed Seeking, Unemployed Not Seeking and Unknown.

Section 3.4 Initial destinations by deprivation

The National Improvement Framework uses a range of measures to monitor the poverty-related attainment gap. Following a user consultation in 2022, school leaver initial destinations was added as a new key measure. This section presents the data for this measure. Three other key measures, relating to school leaver attainment, are also presented in this report, in section 4.3

Chart 3 shows that the percentage of school leavers in a positive initial destination increased in 2022-23 compared to 2021-22, for leavers from the (20%) most deprived areas as defined by the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) (see section 8.5.2). In the (20%) least deprived areas, the percentage of school leavers in a positive destination decreased slightly. Together this has led to a narrowing of the deprivation gap, from 4.4 percentage points in 2021-22 to 3.7 percentage points in 2022-23 – the smallest gap since consistent records began in 2009-10. The proportion of leavers from the most deprived areas in a positive destination increased from 93.4 per cent in 2021-22 to 94.0 per cent in 2022-23. The proportion of leavers from the least deprived areas in a positive destination decreased slightly from 97.8 per cent to 97.7 per cent.

Note 7: pp = percentage point difference between most deprived and least deprived SIMD quintiles

Note 8: Based on SIMD 2009 for 2009-10 and 2010-11, SIMD 2012 for 2011-12 to 2015-16, SIMD 2016 for 2016-17 to 2019-20 and SIMD 2020 for 2020-21, 2021-22 and 2022-23. More information can be found on the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation.

Time series data of destinations by deprivation (available in Table 2 in the supplementary tables) suggests that the narrowing of the gap between 2021-22 and 2022-23 is mainly due to the proportions of school leavers in higher education. The proportion of school leavers from the most deprived areas entering Higher Education increased slightly in 2022-23 compared to 2021-22 whilst the proportion from the least deprived areas decreased. The proportion of school leavers entering further education increased across all SIMD groups between 2021-22 and 2022-23.

Table 2 provides a breakdown of initial school leaver destinations for 2022-23, for pupils from the 20% most deprived and 20% least deprived areas. It shows, for example, that pupils from the most deprived areas continue to be less likely to enter Higher Education than those from the least deprived areas.

In 2022-23, the most common destination for leavers from the most deprived areas was Further Education at 36.8 per cent.

In 2022-23, 5.6 per cent of leavers from the most deprived areas were unemployed, compared to 2.1 per cent of leavers from the least deprived areas.

A breakdown of initial school leaver destinations across all five SIMD quintiles is available in the supplementary tables.

Note 9: Based on the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2020.

Note 10: The percentage point gap measures the difference between leavers from the most and least deprived areas.

Note 11: Percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.

Note 12: [z] = not applicable. (See Section 7 for a full list of symbols used in the tables.)

Section 3.5 Initial destinations by pupil characteristics

Table 3 shows the percentage of school leavers who entered a positive initial destination by various pupil characteristics.

School leavers in 2022-23 with an Additional Support Need (ASN) were less likely to be in a positive initial destination (93.7 per cent) than leavers without a recorded ASN (97.4 per cent). This result is consistent with previous years. These statistics relate to leavers from mainstream schools only; similar statistics relating to destinations of mainstream and special school leavers combined are available in supplementary table L3.1.

Leavers in 2022-23 who were declared or assessed disabled were also less likely to be in a positive initial destination (93.2 per cent) than leavers who were not (96.0 per cent).

Some figures related to Ethnicity have been suppressed due to the small numbers of school leavers involved. Amongst those groups for which data can be reported, the highest proportion of school leavers in a positive initial destination in 2022-23 was amongst African/ Black/ Caribbean leavers (98.5 per cent).

Female pupils continue to be more likely to enter positive destinations than male pupils: 96.4 per cent of female school leavers were in a positive initial destination in 2022-23, compared to 95.3 per cent of male leavers. This result is consistent with previous years.

Remote Rural areas had the highest proportions of leavers in positive initial destinations in 2022-23 (96.4 per cent), whilst Accessible Small Towns and Remote Small Towns had the lowest (95.4 per cent).

More information on destinations by pupil characteristics is available in the supplementary tables.

Note 13: Some categories have been grouped together due to small numbers. Some categories (typically ‘Asian – Indian’, ‘Asian – Chinese’ contain between 100-200 leavers and due to relatively small numbers may be subject to fluctuation. Comparisons between groups should take this into account.

Note 14: The 'African/ Black/ Caribbean' category includes 'African', 'African - Other', and the 'Caribbean or Black' categories.

Note 15: 'All other categories' includes 'Other - other' and 'Other - Arab'.

Note 16: Pupils who have a Coordinated Support Plan (CSP), Individualised Educational Programme (IEP) or Child’s Plan are assessed or declared disabled or have another need.

Note 17: [c] = value suppressed to protect against the risk of disclosure of personal information. (See Section 7 for a full list of symbols used in the tables.)