Summary statistics for attainment and initial leaver destinations, no. 6: 2024 edition

Section 5. School leaver attainment in All SCQF qualifications

Section 5.1 Key points

• 87.9 per cent of school leavers left with one pass or more at SCQF Level 5 or better under the All SCQF measure in 2022-23. This is a decrease from 2021-22 (88.9 per cent).
• 65.6 per cent of school leavers left with one pass or more at SCQF Level 6 or better under the All SCQF measure in 2022-23. This is a decrease from 2021-22 (67.1 per cent).
• 2.0 per cent of school leavers attained no passes at SCQF Level 3 or better under the All SCQF measure in 2022-23. This is an increase from 2021-22 (1.9 per cent).
• The different approaches to determining results in 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 due to the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic should be kept in mind when considering changes in school leaver attainment between years.

The statistics presented in Section 5 relate to attainment in all qualifications on the SCQF. These include the National Qualifications (National Courses and Skills for Work), as well as other qualifications available from other award providers. It is important to note that, for example, the SCQF Level 6 figures presented in this section cover a wider range of qualifications than just Highers. There is more information in section 1.5.

The attainment figures presented in these sections are likely to be higher than those presented in Section 4 because the All SCQF measure includes attainment in other qualifications in addition to National Qualifications. As explained in Section 1.5.3, these differences are likely to be bigger for higher numbers of passes.

As outlined in Section 1.5 there are a number of features of this measure which need to be considered when interpreting the figures, especially when making comparisons over time or between local authorities. In particular, the qualifications included in this measure can be associated with different numbers of SCQF credit points (section 8.4.2). Some qualifications are associated with smaller numbers of SCQF credit points than others. The numbers of pupils attaining these qualifications can vary over time and between local authorities.

There are also some other methodological differences which mean that the number of leavers referred to in the statistics in this section may be different to the number referred to in statistics in the other sections of this publication. See section 8.4 for more information.

As described in section 1.6, the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) led to changes in the way that many qualifications were assessed and graded in the years 2020 to 2023. This will have had an impact on the attainment of school leavers in years 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22 and 2022-23. We have placed a dashed line breaku in the series 2018-19 and 2019-20 to highlight where the change happened. Care must be taken when comparing attainment of school leavers in 2018-19 and before, with that of school leavers in 2019-20 and beyond. Any interpretation of changes must take full account of the different certification methods used in different years, and changes in the attainment levels in 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22 and 2022-23 should not be seen as an indication that performance has improved or worsened, without further evidence.

Section 5.2 School leaver attainment under the All SCQF measure

Table 9 shows the highest SCQF level achieved by school leavers under the All SCQF measure. In 2022-23, 1.5 per cent of school leavers left with one pass or more at SCQF Level 3 as their highest level, 8.5 per cent with one pass or more at SCQF Level 4 and 22.3 per cent with one pass or more at SCQF Level 5. A total of 32.4 per cent of 2022-23 school leavers therefore left with one pass or more at SCQF Levels 3 to 5 as their highest qualification. This was an increase from 2021-22, when 31.0 per cent left with one pass or more at SCQF Levels 3 to 5 as their highest qualification.

Table 9 also shows that, based on the All SCQF measure, 40.2 per cent of 2022-23 school leavers left with one pass or more at SCQF Level 6 as their highest level, and 25.4 per cent left with one pass or more at SCQF Level 7. These proportions have decreased from 2021-22, when 41.1 per cent of leavers left with one pass or more at SCQF Level 6 as their highest level, and 26.0 per cent left with one pass or more at SCQF Level 7.

A small proportion (2.0 per cent) of school leavers attained no passes at SCQF Level 3 or better in 2022-23, under the All SCQF measure. This is very similar to the proportions observed over the last few years.

In addition to the impact of alternative approaches to certification resulting from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the change in the make-up of the school leaver cohort in 2022-23 compared to recent years may have had an effect on overall school leaver attainment. As described in section 2.2, 2022-23 saw a lower proportion of S6 school leavers and increased proportions of S4 and S5 leavers compared to recent years. Those leaving in earlier stages may be less likely to leave with qualifications at higher SCQF levels than those leaving in S6.

Note 33: A dashed line break has been placed between the attainment figures for 2018-19 and 2019-20. This reflects the impact of the change to the assessment approach in 2020 and 2021 on attainment in years from 2019-20 onwards. Further information can be found in sections 1.6, 5.1 and 8.7.

Table 10 provides information on the number of passes achieved by school leavers at each SCQF Level or better, based on the All SCQF measure. In 2022-23, 87.9 per cent of school leavers left with one pass or more at SCQF Level 5 or better, and 65.6 per cent left with one pass or more at SCQF Level 6 or better. These proportions have both decreased from 2021-22, when 88.9 per cent of school leavers left with one pass or more at SCQF Level 5 or better, and 67.1 per cent left with one pass or more at SCQF Level 6 or better.

A time series from 2009-10 to 2022-23 is presented in Table 10 in the supplementary tables.

Table 10: Leaver attainment by SCQF Level or better and number of passes achieved under the All SCQF measure, percentage of leavers; 2018-19 to 2022-23 [note 34] [note 35]

Note 34: A dashed line break has been placed between the attainment figures for 2018-19 and 2019-20. This reflects the impact of the change to the assessment approach in 2020 and 2021 on attainment in years from 2019-20 onwards. Further information can be found in sections 1.6, 5.1 and 8.7.

Note 35: [low] = value less than 0.05% but greater than zero. See Section 7 for a list of all symbols used in the tables.

Section 5.3 School leaver attainment under the All SCQF measure, by deprivation

This section presents school leaver attainment based on the All SCQF measure broken down by deprivation levels as measured by the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD).

Chart 6 shows the proportions of school leavers from the most and least deprived areas who attained 1 pass or more at SCQF Levels 4 or better, 5 or better and 6 or better, as measured under the All SCQF measure.

The All SCQF measures are not currently amongst the 13 key National Improvement Framework measures (which are presented in Section 4.3) which are used to assess progress towards closing the poverty-related attainment gap.

As described in Sections 1.6 and 4.1, there were changes in how many qualifications were assessed and graded in the years 2020 to 2023, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore care should be taken when making comparisons between 2022-23 and earlier years. Any increase or decrease should not be interpreted as indicating improving or worsening performance without further evidence.

At SCQF Level 4 or better, the gap between the proportion of school leavers from the most deprived and least deprived areas attaining one pass or more based on the All SCQF measure was 5.1 percentage points in 2022-23. This has narrowed from 5.3 percentage points in 2021-22. The proportion attaining one pass or more at this level decreased for school leavers from both the most and the least deprived areas between 2021-22 and 2022-23. But it decreased by more for those from the least deprived areas, which has led to the gap between the two groups narrowing.

The gap is currently at its narrowest since 2009-10, having started at 11.0 percentage points in 2009-10 and having narrowed almost every year since. A full time series for attainment at SCQF Level 4 or better, SCQF Level 5 or better and SCQF Level 6 or better since 2009-10 under the All SCQF measure is available in the supplementary tables.

At SCQF Level 5 or better, the attainment gap under the All SCQF measure was 16.6 percentage points in 2022-23. This is wider than in 2021-22 (16.2 percentage points). The proportion attaining 1 pass or more decreased for school leavers from both the most and the least deprived areas between 2021-22 and 2022-23. But it decreased by more for those from the most deprived areas, which has led to the gap widening.

Longer term, the gap has narrowed most years, starting from 32.1 percentage points in 2009-10 and reaching its narrowest in 2020-21 (16.1 percentage points). The gap in 2022-23 is narrower than in all years other than 2020-21 and 2021-22.

At SCQF Level 6 or better, the attainment gap under the All SCQF measure was 31.5 percentage points in 2022-23. This is narrower than in 2021-22 (32.6 percentage points). The proportion attaining one pass or more decreased for school leavers from both the most and the least deprived areas between 2021-22 and 2022-23. But it decreased by more for those from the least deprived areas, which has led to the gap between the two groups narrowing.

Longer term, the gap has narrowed most years, starting from 45.4 percentage points in 2009-10 and reaching its narrowest in 2020-21 (31.4 percentage points). The gap in 2022-23 is narrower than in all years other than 2020-21.

Note 36: pp = percentage point difference between most and least deprived quintile.

Note 37: Based on the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) 2009 for 2009-10 and 2010-11, SIMD 2012 for 2011-12 to 2015-16, SIMD 2016 for 2016-17 to 2019-20, and SIMD 2020 for 2020-21, 2021-22 and 2022-23. More information on the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation.

Note 38: A dashed line break has been placed between the attainment figures for 2018-19 and 2019-20. This reflects the impact of the change to the assessment approach in 2020 and 2021 on attainment in years from 2019-20 onwards. Further information can be found in sections 1.6, 5.1 and 8.7.

Section 5.4 School leaver attainment under the All SCQF measure, by pupil characteristic

Table 11 shows school leaver attainment by pupil characteristic, such as sex and ethnicity, based on the All SCQF measure. It shows that female pupils outperform male pupils at SCQF Levels 4 to 6 or better, with the gap being wider at higher SCQF levels.

Asian-Chinese pupils have high levels of attainment compared to other groups, with 91.7 per cent achieving one pass or more at SCQF Level 6 or better in 2022-23.

Pupils with a recorded Additional Support Need (ASN) are less likely to achieve SCQF Levels 4 to 6 or better than pupils without an ASN. Similarly, pupils who are declared or assessed disabled are less likely to achieve SCQF Levels 4 to 6 or better than pupils who are not. In both cases, the gap is wider at higher SCQF levels.

In 2022-23 pupils living in Accessible Rural areas and Remote Rural areas are the most likely to achieve at SCQF Level 4 or better and SCQF level 5 or better. And at SCQF level 6 or better pupils living in Accessible Rural and Large Urban areas have the highest levels of attainment. Pupils living in Remote Small Towns are the least likely to achieve at SCQF levels 4 to 6 or better.

Broad patterns in attainment by pupil characteristic are typically stable year on year, although small numbers in some characteristic groups mean fluctuations do occur. Table 11 shows that a lower percentage of 2022-23 school leavers achieved one pass or more at all SCQF Levels than in 2021-22, across almost all characteristic breakdowns.

Note 39: Some categories have been grouped together due to small numbers. Some categories (typically ‘Asian – Indian’ and ‘Asian – Chinese’) contain between 100-200 leavers and due to relatively small numbers may be subject to fluctuation. Comparisons between groups should take this into account.

Note 40: The ‘African/Black/Caribbean’ category includes ‘African’, ‘African – Other’ and ‘Caribbean or Black’ categories

Note 41: ‘All other categories’ includes ‘Other – other’ and ‘Other – Arab’.

Note 42: Pupils who have a Coordinated Support Plan (CSP), Individualised Educational Programme (IEP) or Child’s Plan are assessed or declared disabled or have another need.

Note 43: [c] = value suppressed to protect against the risk of disclosure of personal information. See Section 7 for a full list of symbols used in the tables.

Section 5.5 School leaver attainment under the All SCQF measure, by local authority

This chapter describes the range of attainment under the All SCQF measure by school leavers in the 32 local authorities and compares it to the national level results. It is important to remember that the All SCQF measure includes a wide range of qualifications (section 1.5). So, for example, figures presented for SCQF Level 6 in this section cover a wider range of qualifications than just Highers.

As outlined in sections 5.1 and 8.3.4, local authority results can be affected by the different presentation policies in operation in different local authorities. This means that in any year the attainment of school leavers from one local authority may be more heavily influenced by qualifications associated with a smaller number of SCQF credit points than in another. For example, where presentation policies in one local authority have led to a larger number of pupils taking qualifications associated with one or two SCQF credit points than in another, this could lead to higher attainment levels in that authority due to the shorter time requirements of such qualifications. There can also be variation within a single local authority over time, for example if presentation policies change.

Table 14 in Section 8.3.4 shows the proportion of qualifications attained by school leavers at SCQF Level 6 and above that were associated with one or two SCQF credit points (10 or 20 notional learning hours) in 2017-18 to 2022-23. There is considerable variation between local authorities and also over time within individual local authorities. This should be kept in mind when interpreting results in this section.

More generally, if making comparisons between local authorities we recommend keeping in mind the context of the individual authorities. Factors such as levels of poverty or deprivation, the stage at which pupils leave school and the structure of the local economy (for example, the relative levels of post school opportunities in the employment sector or the continuing education sectors) may have an impact on the levels of attainment which pupils leave school with. This should be kept in mind when making comparisons.

If considering changes in attainment under the All SCQF measure over time, keep in mind that the numbers of award providers - and qualifications - included in the All SCQF measure has risen over time, and that the SCQF credit points of qualifications included have also changed over time (see sections 1.5.2 and 8.3.3). There can also be variation in presentation policy within a single local authority over time, which may affect the attainment figures.

Table 12 shows the percentage of school leavers in each local authority – and for Scotland – who attained one pass or more at SCQF Level 4 or better, SCQF Level 5 or better and SCQF Level 6 or better, in 2022-23, under the All SCQF measure. Be aware some figures at local authority level have been suppressed due to the small numbers of school leavers involved.

In 2022-23, for one pass or more at SCQF Level 4 or better, attainment in the local authorities under the All SCQF measure ranges from 92.0 per cent to 99.2 per cent, a range of 7.2 percentage points. For one pass or more SCQF Level 5 or better, All SCQF attainment ranges from 82.1 per cent to 96.9 per cent, a range of 14.8 percentage points. For one pass or more at SCQF Level 6 or better, All SCQF attainment ranges from 53.9 per cent to 87.6 per cent, a range of 33.7 percentage points.

Note 44: [c] value suppressed to protect against the risk of disclosure of personal information

Note 45: Keep in mind the context of each local authority if making comparisons between them.

When compared to the equivalent data for the National Qualifications measure in Section 4.6 it is apparent that the size of the difference in attainment between the National Qualifications measure and the All SCQF measure varies between local authorities. This is likely to largely reflect variation in presentation policies across local authorities.

Chart 7 also illustrates the range in attainment under the All SCQF measure between the local authorities for which data can be presented. It shows that the range in attainment increases as the SCQF level considered increases.

Note 46: Keep in mind the context of each local authority if making comparisons between them.

Further data on attainment by local authority for years 2009-10 to 2022-23 are provided in the supplementary tables. The supplementary tables also include a breakdown of attainment under the All SCQF measure in each local authority by deprivation.