Summary Statistics for Attainment and Initial Leaver Destinations - Data Sources and Methodology 2025

Section 6. Impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on these statistics

Section 6.1 School Leaver Destinations

The greatest effect of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on school leaver destinations is likely to have been seen in 2019-20 although it is likely that there has been some ongoing impact on the destinations of some 2020-21, 2021-22 and possibly 2022-23 school leavers.

2019-20:

The availability of particular opportunities (employment opportunities, for example) to some 2019-20 school leavers was directly affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. For example, the start dates of some opportunities were delayed, leading to a direct impact on the destinations recorded for some pupils. The pandemic may also have affected the ability of local partnerships to track the destinations of some school leavers through home visits.

In addition to this, the approach taken to the certification of SQA qualifications in 2020 will have affected the attainment of many 2019-20 school leavers. This may in turn have affected the destination choices and opportunities available to them. The pandemic may also have influenced pupils’ decisions on when to leave school (for example, delaying leaving from 2019-20 to 2020-21).

2020-21:

For 2020-21 school leavers, it is likely that the pandemic continued to affect the choices made by, and opportunities available to, some school leavers for the reasons outlined above.

2021-22 to 2022-23:

For 2021-22 and 2022-23 school leavers there may again be some ongoing impact on school leavers destinations, resulting from the effect of alternative approaches to certification of SQA qualifications since 2020.  

The impacts of COVID-19 should therefore be kept in mind when considering changes over time in school leavers’ destinations.

Section 6.2 School Leaver Attainment under the National Qualifications measure

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic led to the cancellation of National 5 (SCQF Level 5), Higher (SCQF Level 6) and Advanced Higher (SCQF Level 7) exams in 2020 and 2021, and alternative approaches were taken to determining grades. 

In 2022, there was a return to the use of exams. These were supported by a package of measures such as course modifications and revision support, which were designed to address the ongoing disruption to learning and teaching which young people had experienced, while maintaining standards. In addition a more generous approach to grading was adopted to help ensure fairness for learners. 

In 2023, normal awarding procedures were in place. However, a sensitive approach to grading was adopted which was intended to provide an extra layer of protection for learners in light of ongoing impacts of the pandemic.

The National Qualifications measure also includes Skills for Work courses. Some further detail of arrangements for these courses can be found in Section 6.3.

Overall pass rates for National 5, Higher and Advanced Higher were higher in 2020 and 2021 than they had been in 2019 (the last pre-pandemic year of exams). In 2022 overall pass rates reduced compared to 2020 and 2021, although they remained above 2019 levels. In 2023, overall pass rates again reduced compared to the previous three years, but still remained above 2019 levels. In 2024 assessment procedures generally returned to methods used prior to the pandemic. Overall pass rates for National 5, Higher and Advanced Higher were lower in 2024 than in 2023 with National 5 and Advanced Higher pass rates dropping below the 2019 level.

The National Qualifications measure takes account of the qualifications pupils have gained throughout their schooling and so some leavers will have attainment gained under a variety of different approaches to grading. The different approaches to awards and grading between 2020 and 2023 will have affected the attainment of many school leavers between 2019-20 and 2022-23 presented in this report. The biggest impacts are likely to have been seen for leavers in 2019-20, 2020-21 and 2021-22, with the higher National Qualification pass rates in 2020 and 2021 likely to have resulted in higher levels of attainment for some school leavers in these years. There may still be effects for some leavers in 2022-23. A dashed line break in the series has been placed between 2018-19 and 2019-20. This indicates that care must be taken when comparing attainment of school leavers in 2018-19 and before, with that of school leavers in 2019-20 and beyond. 

In addition, care should also be taken when comparing the attainment of 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22 and 2022-23 school leavers. Interpretation of changes must take full account of the different certification methods used in different years, and changes in the attainment levels in 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22 and 2022-23 should not be seen as an indication that performance has improved or worsened, without further evidence.

Section 6.3 School Leaver Attainment under the All SCQF measure

Many of the qualifications included in the All SCQF measure are the SQA National Qualifications. The changes to the assessment and certification of these in 2019-20 and in subsequent years, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, are outlined in the previous section (Section 6.2). In addition, the assessment and certification of the other qualifications in the All SCQF measure also changed in 2019-20 and subsequent years, in response to the pandemic.

For example in 2020, for SQA National Certificates, National Progression Awards, Skills for Work courses, and other Awards, schools, colleges, employers and training providers could provide SQA with the results of internal assessment decisions using their teaching experience of candidates’ work through the year.

In 2021 the approach for these qualifications was adapted depending on the circumstances and on what level of assessment evidence could be produced. In some cases assessment continued as normal. In others providers could use permitted adaptations in line with SQA guidance to generate assessment evidence. Where this was still not possible centres were advised to carry out holistic assessments to meet the aims of many of these awards and any critical competences for that award. In circumstances where this remained impossible, assessment may have been postponed.

Other qualifications may have required different approaches to assessment and certification throughout this period.

In 2024 assessment procedures generally returned to methods used prior to the pandemic.

As for the National Qualifications measure, care must therefore be taken when comparing attainment of school leavers in 2018-19 and before, with that of school leavers in 2019-20 and beyond. Care should also be taken when comparing the attainment of 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22 and 2022-23 school leavers.

Interpretation of changes must take full account of the different certification methods used in different years, and changes in the attainment levels in 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22 and 2022-23 should not be seen as an indication that performance has improved or worsened, without further evidence.