Summary Statistics for Attainment and Initial Leaver Destinations, No. 7: 2025 edition

Section 3. School leaver initial destinations

As described in Section 1.4, the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) will have had an impact on the initial destination choices made by, and opportunities available to, school leavers. The impacts of COVID-19 should be kept in mind when interpreting changes between 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22 and 2022-23, and when comparing these to other years.

The statistics in Section 3 refer to all school leavers from mainstream schools.

Section 3.1 Initial destinations of school leavers

95.7 per cent of all 2023-24 school leavers were in a positive initial destination. This was slightly lower than in 2022-23 (95.9 per cent) but is still the second highest (alongside 2021-22) since consistent records began in 2009-10.

The proportion of school leavers in Higher Education increased from 40.3 per cent in 2022-23 to 40.8 per cent in 2023-24. This proportion is broadly consistent with figures seen in the years immediately before the COVID-19 pandemic.

The proportion of school leavers in Further Education decreased slightly from 26.6 per cent in 2022-23 to 26.4 per cent in 2023-24.

Combining the results for these two categories shows that 67.2 per cent of 2023-24 school leavers were in Higher or Further Education three months after the end of the school year. This is a slight increase from 2022-23 (66.9 per cent), driven by the increase in the proportion of leavers in Higher Education.

The percentage of school leavers in Employment three months after leaving school decreased from 24.3 per cent in 2022-23 to 23.1 per cent in 2023-24, a fall of 1.3 percentage points. Despite this, it is the third highest proportion since consistent records began in 2009-10.

The percentage of school leavers who were Unemployed (either Unemployed Seeking or Unemployed Not Seeking) increased slightly from 3.8 per cent for 2022-23 to 4.0 per cent for 2023-24. This is the third lowest proportion since consistent records began.

A full time series showing the initial destination of school leavers from 2009-10 to 2023-24 can be found in Supplementary Tables 1a and 1b.

Chart 2: The most common initial destination for school leavers is Higher Education followed by Further Education and Employment

Percentage of school leavers by initial destination category, 2018-19 to 2023-24

Section 3.2 Initial destinations by stage of leaving

The composition of the school leaver cohort each year is likely to influence the percentages of total school leavers in each destination. The most common initial destination for leavers varies by stage of leaving. As noted in Section 2 and similar to last year, the 2023-24 leaver cohort had a lower than usual proportion of S6 leavers, and higher than usual proportions of S4 and S5 leavers. This change in the composition of the leaver cohort in 2022-23 and 2023-24 is likely to be influencing some of the changes seen in the overall proportions entering each initial destination compared to previous years.

The initial destinations of school leavers vary by stage of leaving. In 2023-24:

• the majority of S6 leavers entered Higher Education (64.7 per cent);
• the most common initial destination for S5 leavers was Further Education (37.7 per cent) followed closely by Employment (34.1 per cent);
• over half of S4 leavers entered Further Education (52.2 per cent).

Chart 3: S6 leavers are more likely to enter Higher Education after leaving school while S5 and S4 leavers are more likely to enter Further Education

Initial destinations of school leavers by stage of leaving, 2023-24

Pupils who stay on longer at school have a greater likelihood of being in a positive initial destination. 97.8 per cent of S6 leavers were in a positive destination in 2023-24 compared to 93.5 per cent of S5 leavers and 91.9 per cent of S4 leavers. Over time the gap has narrowed due to a greater improvement among S4 and S5 leavers than S6 leavers.

Chart 4: S6 leavers are more likely to be in a positive initial destination than those who leave school earlier

Percentage of school leavers in a positive initial destination by stage of leaving, 2009-10 to 2023-24

Section 3.3 Initial destinations by deprivation

When considering data by the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD), it is important to note that the data show the difference between young people living in the most and least deprived areas. Not every person living in a deprived area will themselves be experiencing high levels of deprivation and not everyone experiencing deprivation will live in a deprived area.

The National Improvement Framework uses a range of measures to monitor the poverty-related attainment gap. Following a user consultation in 2022, school leaver initial destinations was added as a new key measure. This Section presents the data for this measure. Three other key measures, relating to school leaver attainment, are also presented in this report, in Section 4.2.

Widening of the gap can occur for multiple reasons. An increase in the least deprived areas and/or a decrease in the most deprived areas will cause the gap to widen but it is also possible for the gap to widen when there have been increases in both areas, if the increase is greater in the least deprived areas.

The proportion of school leavers from the most deprived areas who were in a positive destination decreased from 94.0 per cent in 2022-23 to 93.6 per cent in 2023-24. The proportion of leavers from the least deprived areas who were in a positive destination increased slightly from 97.7 per cent to 97.9 per cent over the same time period. Together, this has led to a widening of the deprivation gap, from 3.7 percentage points in 2022-23 to 4.3 percentage points in 2023-24. Despite this, this is the second narrowest gap since consistent records began in 2009-10.

Time series data of destinations by deprivation (available in Table 2 in the supplementary tables) shows that the widening of the gap between 2022-23 and 2023-24 is mainly due to an increase by 2.3 percentage points in the proportion of school leavers from the least deprived areas entering Higher Education and no change in the proportion of leavers from the most deprived areas entering Higher Education. There has also been a decrease in the proportion of school leavers from the most deprived areas entering Employment (down by 0.9 percentage points compared to 2022-23) and Further Education (down by 0.4 percentage points compared to 2022-23).

Chart 5: The deprivation gap for positive initial destinations has widened compared to last year but it is the second smallest gap on record

Percentage of school leavers in a positive initial destination, by SIMD, 2018-19 to 2023-24

pp = percentage point difference between most deprived and least deprived SIMD quintiles

In 2023-24, the most common destination for leavers from the most deprived areas was Further Education at 36.4 per cent. Pupils from the most deprived areas continue to be less likely to enter Higher Education than those from the least deprived areas (26.8 per cent compared to 62.5 per cent).

In 2023-24, 6.1 per cent of leavers from the most deprived areas were unemployed, compared to 2.0 per cent of leavers from the least deprived areas.

A breakdown of initial school leaver destinations across all five SIMD quintiles is available in Table 2 of the supplementary tables.

Chart 6: Leavers from the most deprived areas are most likely to enter Further Education whereas leavers from the least deprived areas are most likely to enter Higher Education

Percentage of school leavers from the most and least deprived areas, by initial destination category, 2023-24

Section 3.4 Initial destinations by pupil characteristics

Female pupils continue to be more likely to enter positive destinations than male pupils: 96.3 per cent of female school leavers were in a positive initial destination in 2023-24, compared to 95.2 per cent of male leavers. This result is consistent with previous years.

Some figures related to Ethnicity have been suppressed due to the small numbers of school leavers involved. Amongst those groups for which data can be reported, the highest proportion of school leavers in a positive initial destination in 2023-24 was amongst African/ Black/ Caribbean leavers (97.7 per cent).

Remote Rural areas had the highest proportions of leavers in positive initial destinations in 2023-24 (96.3 per cent), whilst Remote Small Towns had the lowest (94.9 per cent).

School leavers in 2023-24 with an Additional Support Need (ASN) were less likely to be in a positive initial destination (93.3 per cent) than leavers without a recorded ASN (97.7 per cent). This result is consistent with previous years. These statistics relate to leavers from mainstream schools only; similar statistics relating to destinations of mainstream and special school leavers combined are available in Supplementary Table L3.1.

Leavers in 2023-24 who were declared or assessed disabled were also less likely to be in a positive initial destination (93.3 per cent) than leavers who were not (95.8 per cent).

More information on destinations by pupil characteristics is available in Table 3 of the supplementary tables

Chart 7: The proportion of leavers in a positive destination differs by pupil characteristic

Percentage of school leavers in a positive initial destination, by pupil characteristic, 2023-24

Note: Axis for this chart starts at 90 per cent.