Suspected drug deaths in Scotland: January to March 2022

Suspected drug deaths in Scotland

1. Background

In January 2021 the Scottish Government announced a National Mission to reduce Scotland's unacceptable drug death rates. Part of this commitment is to improve data and surveillance. This report is published quarterly and focusses on management information from Police Scotland on suspected drug deaths, to provide as timely an indication of current trends in drug deaths in Scotland as is possible. Statistics from the National Records of Scotland (NRS) are also presented for wider context.

2. Summary

There were 285 suspected drug deaths recorded between January and March 2022. This is a similar level to the previous two calendar quarters (October to December 2021: 288, July to September 2021: 285), but 27% (108) lower than the same calendar quarter of 2021 (January to March 2021: 393). The rolling 12-month suspected drug death total has declined for four consecutive quarters, but remains high.

3. Drug death definitions

Classifying a death as drug related is complex. There are a number of different definitions of drug deaths, and this report focusses on two:

• Annual drug-related deaths (sometimes referred to as drug-misuse deaths) from National Records of Scotland (NRS) – the annual headline measure used in Scotland. NRS's National Statistics Drug-related deaths in Scotland use this definition, with the most recent publication (July 2021) reporting 1,339 drug-related deaths for 2020. It covers all deaths with an underlying cause of drug poisoning or drug abuse, but only where any of the substances involved are controlled in the UK. This means that deaths from only e.g. aspirin or paracetamol are excluded.
• Quarterly suspected drug deaths – the operational measure used by Police Scotland, this includes deaths that the Police suspect involved illicit drugs, based on the reports of attending officers' observations and initial enquiries at the scene of death.

More information on National Statistics drug deaths definitions can be found in the methodological annexes of the official drug-related deaths publication on the National Records of Scotland webpage.

4. Recent trends in Police Scotland suspected drug deaths

Police Scotland management information gives an indication of recent trends in drug deaths in Scotland based on reports from police officers attending scenes of death. Classification as a suspected drug death is based on an officer's observations and initial enquiries at the scene of death.

There were 285 suspected drug deaths recorded between January and March 2022. This was similar to the level recorded for each of the previous two calendar quarters (October to December 2021: 288; July to September 2021: 285).

Over the first three months of 2022:

• There were 27% (108) fewer suspected drug deaths than during the same period of 2021 (January to March 2021: 393).
• Males accounted for 70% of suspected drug deaths. This compares with 72% between January and March 2021.
• There were 86 suspected drug deaths of females, a decrease of 22% (24) compared with January to March 2021.
• Two-thirds (66%) of suspected drug deaths were of people aged between 35 and 54. This was broadly in line with previous quarters.
• There were 15 suspected drug deaths in the under 25 age group, 25% (5) fewer than during January and March 2021.
• The Police Divisions with the greatest number of suspected drug deaths were: Greater Glasgow (50), Edinburgh City (31) and Lanarkshire (29).

There were 1,187 suspected drug deaths over the 12 months to March 2022, 20% (299) fewer than the 12 months to March 2021.

Note that numbers of suspected drug deaths fluctuate from quarter to quarter and care should be taken not to interpret movements between individual calendar quarters as indicative of any long term trend.

A breakdown of suspected drug deaths by police division by calendar quarter for the period October 2020 to March 2022 can be found in Annex A.

More detail on the statistics presented above is available in the workbook provided here http://www.gov.scot/ISBN/9781804355664/documents/

5. Other sources of drug deaths information in Scotland

5.1 Drug death data

There are two different sets of statistics on the number of drug deaths in Scotland:

I. National Statistics published annually by National Records of Scotland. These are the official figures on the number of drug-related deaths registered in Scotland each year. Drug-related deaths are identified using data from death registration records supplemented with information from the Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service and forensic pathologists. Drug-related deaths in Scotland in 2020 includes more detail on the sources of data used to produce these National Statistics.

II. Management information from Police Scotland on suspected drug deaths. This operational data is available more rapidly and more frequently than the NRS annual statistics described in (i), and provides a more timely indication of the likely trend in drug-related deaths. However, this management information is not subject to the same level of validation and quality assurance as National Statistics as it is based on officers' observations and other circumstantial evidence, and it is not a replacement for the final drug-related death statistics produced by NRS. Section 5.3 of this report, "Relationship between Police Scotland suspected drug deaths and NRS drug-related deaths", has more detail on how this data correlates with the National Statistics produced by NRS.

More information on the data sources, methodologies and interpretation of the data can be found in Annex B.

5.2 National Statistics – Drug-related deaths in Scotland in 2020

On 30 July 2021 National Records of Scotland published Drug-related deaths in Scotland in 2020. These official statistics are used in the development of policy by the Scottish Government and other interested parties such as the Drug Deaths Taskforce, NHS Boards and local Alcohol and Drug Partnerships.

In 2020, there were 1,339 drug-related deaths registered in Scotland, 5% (59 deaths) more than in 2019. This was the largest number ever recorded since the time series began in 1996. Drug-related deaths have been steadily increasing since 1996, but since 2013 the upward trend has been steeper (Figure 2).

5.3 Relationship between Police Scotland suspected drug deaths and NRS drug-related deaths

Police Scotland suspected drug deaths correlate very closely with the NRS drug-related death statistics (Figure 3). Since the period ending in December 2018, the rolling 12-month Police Scotland figures have ranged between 3% and 6% above the NRS drug-related death figures.

The table below shows both of the measures for calendar years 2018, 2019 and 2020:

Source: NRS and Police Scotland

More information on the data sources, methodologies and interpretation of the data can be found in Annex B.

6. Next update

The next annual drug-related deaths publication from NRS is due to be released on 28 July 2022.

The next 'Suspected drug deaths in Scotland' quarterly report will be published in September 2022, reporting on deaths up to June 2022.

7. Accessing help and support for problem drug use

If you or anyone you know is affected by drug use, support is available via the following organisations:

• Scottish Drugs Forum
• Scottish Families Affected by Alcohol & Drugs
• Know the Score
• We Are With You

8. Other drug death data and resources

• Drug-related deaths in Scotland in 2020 (National Records of Scotland)
• Substance use data and intelligence (Public Health Scotland)
• ScotPHO drugs pages (Scottish Public Health Observatory)
• Homeless deaths 2020 (National Records of Scotland)
• UK drug situation: Focal Point annual report