Tackling Child Poverty Delivery Plan 2022-26: Logic model towards system change in the child poverty context

Approach

The overarching aim of this report is to identify and understand the range of approaches taken to system change and person-centred support in local child poverty systems through the initiatives committed to in Best Start, Bright Futures. The ultimate goal was to develop and agree on a logic model or theory of change towards system-change in the child poverty context.

Scottish Government analysists engaged with a wide range of policy makers across government to identify relevant policy actions. Once the criteria for selection and the list of included policies was agreed, a cross-government working group was established. This group was formed by key policy leads and analysts of each individual policy. The aim was to support discussions that would allow the develop the logic model.

Specifically, two key tasks took place:

1. Refining the scope and identifying and understanding the system-change initiatives in Best Start, Bright Futures

2. Understanding what system change initiatives are trying to achieve and how, and developing an overarching Theory of Change for system-change initiatives as a whole

The first task involved deciding on the scope of the work. This included establishing a set of criteria for what is in scope. Policies were reviewed according to:

• their relevance to system change, person-centred support and child poverty reduction
• the scale of delivery and/or anticipated impact and
• likelihood of evidence of effectiveness being available

This first step allowed us to decide on the initiatives in scope.

The second task involved identifying and exploring key features of the initiatives, including geographical location, scale, stakeholders or type of activity. This entailed a desk review of documents and discussions with policy and analytical leads. This task also included collecting information on how initiatives are being evaluated and when evaluation evidence is expected to become available.

This second step allowed us to develop a theory of change for system-change initiatives that are in scope. Through workshops with policy and analytical leads, the group identified the desired outcomes of this activity at the system level; how this is anticipated to impact on child poverty; the range of activities being implemented to achieve the system outcomes; the pathways by which the changes are expected to occur; and the intermediate outcomes and contextual drivers that can be anticipated. The final output is an agreed theory of change.

Limitations

There are a range of limitations that need to be considered when reading this report.

• The Theory of Change focuses on system change initiatives which have a tackling child poverty element to their work. Therefore, this work does not seek to cover all system change initiatives being undertaken within the Scottish Government. However, learnings from this model, and the associated work, may be applicable to other policy contexts.
• The model focuses primarily on the macro and meso elements of system change. It is expected that the micro level elements of system change would be reflected in the Theories of Change for individual policy initiatives.
• Additionally, this work draws upon many policies and initiatives which are in the early stages of design, development and implementation. Evaluation varies for each policy in scope and learning is at the moment not consistent.
• The Theory of Change may be developed and adapted across the life course of this evaluation as the policy initiatives become more refined.