Tackling Child Poverty Delivery Plan 2022-26: Logic model towards system change in the child poverty context

Developing a theory of change

The first step in the approach was to refine the scope through identifying and understanding the system change initiatives.

Discussions with officials were framed around five key themes: situation, activities, preconditions, system outcomes and child poverty outcomes. The idea being to support the development of the theory of change. For simplification and ease of read, this chapter covers each section of the logic model individually.

Taking each of these steps in turn.

Situation - setting the scene around system change

We know that the child poverty system families have to navigate is highly complex, as seen in the system mapping exercise previously undertaken in order to understand the wide range of factors that influences levels of child poverty, and the relationships between them.

One of the first steps Scottish Government analysts took, was to discuss the issues with the current system and agree on what Scottish Government are trying to change from a child poverty perspective. That is the current ‘situation’ on the child poverty system.

The importance of the wider, structural context

Substantial evidence shows the logistical difficulties of linking up employment, care, transport and financial support for people who have limited resources, opportunities and choice, coupled with often immovable requirements due to health conditions or caring responsibilities.

Various aspects need to be considered. For example, the context in which Scottish Government operates, including the levers for tackling poverty and resource constraints, was hampered during the ongoing cost of living crisis. This is also true at a local level, in terms of the resources available locally across Scotland to drive the child poverty agenda.

We know that paid work is the largest source of income for many families. However, levels of in-work poverty are high. Research suggests that further action is required. Recommendations suggest the need to improve the quality and flexibility of available employment and ensure there is available, affordable and flexible childcare that matches job requirements. As such, any potential impact of policies will depend at least partly on the local labour market and employer’s policies around pay, type of contracts or flexibility allowed in working arrangements.

Evidence also highlights the need to address structural barriers such as discrimination (unfair treatment) and undervaluation (being paid less when compared to similarly demanding jobs), particularly for women, disabled people and people from minority ethnic groups. It is also crucial to acknowledge the structural factors that relate to pay gaps. For instance, jobs in some sectors (for example, education and care) have been undervalued for some time.

Consideration of local needs

Ample research emphasizes the need to understand local circumstances and challenges.

Since the first Tackling Child Poverty Delivery Plan, the Scottish Government has taken proactive action to improve its understanding of local needs and ensure that policies are tailored to particular environments and circumstances. The same philosophy is necessary when developing system change – with a clear need to acknowledge that system change may look different in different areas. Further, system change may mean different things depending on the policy lens taken.

Ongoing efforts should be put in place to understand local needs. Officials agreed that methods of achieving this include embedding user voices in the service design stage and deviating from “one-size-fits-all” policies.

Fostering collaboration and relationships

Many successful policy approaches are underpinned by strong, collaborative relationships. In the context of child poverty, this implies the need for strong partnership working at national level, at local level, and within and across the various stakeholders that play a role in supporting families in poverty.

At a national level, officials thought this could mean a reduction in the siloed approach to funding in the Scottish Government. For example, by taking a child poverty lens when developing policies or deploying resources across government; and ensuring that there is joined-up working between, and across, various policy areas.

At a local level, the main areas officials considered for system change were around fostering local leadership and coordination. This includes providing support to services that could but are not yet working together. This support would be offered in an integrated way rather than through a siloed approach. Thus, ensuring that there are shared objectives and outcomes between services. All of this, underpinned by a strong use of data and knowledge sharing across services and organisations to improve the experience of families navigating the child poverty system.

Creating circumstances for person-centred support

Officials agreed that at the heart of any policy intervention there is a need to understand who the intended beneficiaries are. This is so that those who need the support can benefit from it. It was understood that for those families with complex circumstances, a person-centred approach that supports them navigating the range of services is crucial.

There is a growing body of evidence and stakeholder support for a switch from transactional (A delivery service to B) to relational approaches. The relational approach considers the needs of the person or family to maximise their capability to access, and navigate, the whole system.

In practice, a person-centred approach means support that is delivered flexibly to ensure that support is provided when it is most needed. This support should be delivered in a way that fosters trust and reduces stigma, while meeting the complex and diverse needs to maximise people’s or family’s capabilities.

Activities - a range of system-change policies

In order to develop the logic model, it was necessary to identify the range of activities in scope.

There are a range of initiatives in Best Start, Bright Futures that are focused on changing the child poverty system and improving join up between local support services. There is no clear definition in the Plan of what is exactly meant by ‘changing the system’. Instead, the Plan includes a range of commitments that signify a system change.

Selection of initiatives in scope

When deciding which initiatives to include in the scope of this project, only those policies that aimed to achieve all of the following were selected:

• A focus to tackle child poverty
• A joined-up approach in the range of support provided to help move people out of poverty
• A focus on ensuring the child poverty support system works for the people who need it
• Partnership working from across the public, third and/or private sectors
• A holistic and person-centred approach that wraps around the needs of the individual

At this stage of the project, the following initiatives were selected to fall within the remit of this work.

• Dundee Child Poverty Pathfinder - a collaborative initiative between Dundee City Council, the Department of Work and Pensions (DWP), the Scottish Government, Social Security Scotland and other partners, aiming to support parents to move out of poverty on a sustained basis, working across boundaries to provide holistic approaches centred around a family’s specific needs.
• Glasgow Child Poverty Pathfinder - Glasgow City Council, the Scottish Government, COSLA and the Improvement Service are working together, using a ‘No Wrong Door’ approach, to achieve better outcomes for families by reforming systems and removing barriers, including siloes, data sharing and restrictive funding, to enable the delivery of holistic person-centred services.
• Child Poverty Practice Accelerator Fund - Scottish Government is launching a bid-in fund to support small scale, local projects to test and innovate ways of working and generate evidence on what works to tackle child poverty.
• The Social Innovation Partnership (SIP) - a partnership between Scottish Government and the Hunter Foundation, using a distinctive wellbeing and capabilities approach to tackling poverty and inequality, that supports people to live flourishing lives based on what matters to them.
• No-one Left Behind - an integrated approach to employability services, underpinned by a partnership approach to design and delivery between Scottish Government and local authorities. The programme aims to provide a flexible, user-centred system, that helps people to find, stay in and progress in sustainable work.
• School age childcare - building a system of school age childcare, offering care before and after school and during the holidays, by taking a person-centred and place-based approach, designing services collaboratively with families, childcare providers and the wider public sector, meeting individual and community needs.
• Whole Family Wellbeing Fund - supporting ‘whole system transformational change’ in order to reduce the need for crisis intervention in families and shift investment towards prevention and early intervention, so that families have access to the range of services they need, when they need them, and for as long as they need, to help them flourish and thrive.
• Mental Health and Wellbeing Strategy – the ultimate aim is for mental health considerations to be integrated into all policy. This will be done via a phased approach, prioritising areas where there is already joined-up links, such as employability and child poverty.
• Empowering Communities Programme – a range of funds and grants with the aim to support system change through a place-based approach It is intended that system change will happen through coordination, collaboration and partnerships formed within local community delivery structures.

Over time, it may be that other initiatives could fall within the scope of this research, including initiatives in health, transport, education, housing and potentially economic development. An ongoing review of the initiatives in scope will be undertaken throughout the life of this project.

Characteristics of initiatives in scope

A brief description of the characteristics of each initiative is set out in the following table. Table 1: Characteristics of initiatives around system change in the child poverty context

	Where is it being delivered?	What are the timescales?	Who are the partners?	What system change focus does the policy have?	How is the initiative contributing to child poverty reduction?	What type of evaluation is there?
Dundee Pathfinder	Dundee, specifically in the Linlathen community.	Engagement with Cohort 1 ran from April to October 2022. Work with Cohort 2 has been progressing since October 2022 and is ongoing.	Scottish Government, Dundee City Council, DWP, Social Security Scotland and other local partners (including third sector)	Aims to work in a person-centred holistic way focusing on partnership working to unlock any barriers/blockers preventing employment	Directly. Focus on the three drivers of poverty with an emphasis on employability as a route out of poverty.	Process, Impact and Economic evaluation. Published outputs.
Glasgow Pathfinder	Glasgow, city-wide	Scoping phase: April to June 2022. Main phase from July 2022 and ongoing.	Glasgow City Council, Scottish Government, COSLA & Improvement Service	A ’no-wrong-door’ approach to service/support delivery. As well as service re-design ('no wrong door'), includes work strands on funding streams (reducing ringfencing and multiple short-term funding streams) & on eligibility (building a database of economically vulnerable people to proactively target support)	Directly. Focus on the three drivers of poverty, with an emphasis on improved outcomes to get families out of poverty and keep families away from poverty.	Process, Impact and Economic evaluation Published outputs
Accelerator Fund	Still to be confirmed depending on successful projects	Fund to be launched in Autumn 2023	Scottish Government, local authorities, health boards and various partners (depending on project)	The fund aims to test and innovate better ways of working. The application process is not yet complete but eligible projects may include initiatives to improve join-up between services to become person-centred.	Projects will vary in scope. It is anticipated that there will be a mix of initiatives tackling the three drivers of poverty and others with a longer term view to enhancing life chances	Will vary in scope. Mostly focusing on Process and Impact evaluation with an emphasis on action learning.
Social Innovation Partnership	Phase 1 - individual support range of places, mostly central belt; systems change - Clackmannanshire and Tayside	Phase 1 - 2016-2022 (individual capabilities support and system level change) Phase 2 – 2022/23 onwards system change and implementation within Clackmannanshire	Partnership between SG and The Hunter Foundation; systems change work developed with local partners - Family Wellbeing Partnership in Clackmannanshire; and Tayside Collaborative (latter led by Hunter Foundation and SG has less involvement)	Capabilities work is person-centred support that can help people to navigate across support streams/services. Also includes some initiatives aimed at building support infrastructure (more flexible work, childcare).	Indirectly. Supports people to live ‘flourishing lives’, through person centred and holistic responses. Focus on improving health, wellbeing, capabilities, and longer term goals. Secondary focus to reduce costs of living through better access to services and support.	Process, Impact and (in some areas) Economic evaluation Published outputs
No-one Left Behind	Across all local authorities in Scotland	Phase 1: 2018-2022 Phase 2: 2022 onwards	Scottish Government ad Local Employability Partnerships	Partnership approach to design and delivery between Scottish Government and local authorities; aims to provide a flexible, user-centred system	Directly by increasing income from employment	Implementation evaluation completed. Scoping underway for Year 2 evaluation to align with the delay of Phase 3. In Year 3 and 4 evaluations may be process and outcome evaluation, and impact assessment in year 4. Published outputs
School age childcare	Phase 1 (2022-2023): Clackmannanshire, Alloa South and East; Dundee, Linlathen; Glasgow, Carntyne and Drumchapel; and Inverclyde, Port Glasgow. Phase 2 (2023-2026): Expansion of Phase 1 across other local authorities in Scotland	System change intended to scale from service-level change (2020-2022) to community-level change (2022-2026) to national-level change (2026+).	Scottish Government, Local Authorities, Schools, child care providers, Care Inspectorate and others	Building a system of school age childcare, before and after school and during school holidays. This is done through a people-centred and place-based approach focusing on tailoring local systems to meet the needs of the children and families within their communities.	Primarily by supporting increases in income from employment. Secondarily to reduce cost of living.	National-level Evaluation Strategy in development. But in the meantime, monitoring and evaluation of service- and community-level tests of change projects to build and deliver an effective school age childcare offer for families in targeted areas
Whole Family Wellbeing Fund	Element 1: across Scotland Element 2: in a selection of CSPPs Element 3: across Scotland	April 2022-26. Three elements: 1) building local service capacity and transforming family support services; 2) intensive capacity building support targeted at small number of areas; 3) national policy initiatives	Scottish Government, CSPPs, Children & Young People's Improvement Collaborative, CELCIS	Aiming to deliver transformational change through embedding preventative holistic family support so that families get the right support, in the right way and at the right time. Scaling up 'transformational change' is anticipated – though still to be agreed what type of transformational change to aim for.	Indirect. Strengthening support for families when they need it should enhance life chances, e.g. by improving health, wellbeing, capabilities & longer term goals; could involve referrals to employability support or to income maximisation services.	Process and Impact evaluation. Interim report already published.
Mental Health and Wellbeing Strategy	National policy	Consultation: 2022 Strategy: 2023	Scottish Government, NHS Boards, Health and Social Care Partners (HSCPs) and third sector	Aim to improve mental health and wellbeing for everyone in Scotland by increasingly focusing on prevention and early intervention; taking a whole-person and whole system approach. This will take into consideration how social determinants impact mental health.	Indirect. Improving wellbeing at population level, particularly through support for families	Process and outcomes focused evaluation in some places. Full monitoring and evaluation framework to be published alongside Delivery Plan in Autumn 2023.
Empowering Communities Programme	Empowering Communities Programme – various multiple communities across Scotland. The programme complements capital investment delivered through the Place based investment programme – across Scotland.	Empowering Communities Programme ongoing Includes Investing in Communities Fund (2023-26) Place based investment: from 2021/22-2025/26	Scottish Government, third sector and enterprise agencies engaging with local authorities	Coordination, collaboration and partnership formed through the structures in the communities. Reduce duplication. Maximise investment opportunities. Supporting local community based third sector organisations	Indirectly by supporting investment in communities with a focus to tackling child poverty. Directly through projects that reduce poverty, focusing on a ‘no wrong door approach’ in service delivery.	Not currently evaluated. Previous research on similar fund.

Preconditions

When discussing the journey towards system change in the child poverty context there are a range of preconditions that need to be considered. Preconditions refer to what needs to be in place within activities for outcomes to be achieved.

This is the third step in the development of the logic model.

Data and evidence

There was strong consensus amongst officials on the importance of data and evidence in supporting strategic design and delivery decisions. To support system change, there was an agreed need of collaborative data sharing processes across Scottish Government, local authorities and sector partners. Ideally, this would be embedded in the systems and structures of the various networks/partnerships/collaborations that deliver the initiatives.

At a delivery level, officials thought that frontline staff should feel empowered to share insights and learning from their experiences of service delivery. A culture of feedback that allows for, and supports, service improvements. For this to happen, partners across all sectors should be open and receptive to change and learning from evidence.

National Leadership and collaboration

Equally important for officials is the need for a shared and clear understanding, both at local and national level, of the role that Scottish Government should play in leading system change.

In the journey towards system change, there needs to be clear shared aims and outcomes agreed between national and local government. This has been recently exemplified in the Verity House Agreement. Officials anticipate such an agreement will also create opportunities and incentives for collaborative working between Scottish Government policy areas. Ultimately, reducing barriers and reinforcing joined-up policy making.

Ultimately, system change is a long-term goal and therefore, there should be a commitment to longer-term planning and ways of working.

Local Leadership and collaboration

In some cases, officials thought local leadership structures should be improved to enable collaborative working and to create the conditions where all partners are able to feed into service design to develop integrated services. One way of facilitating this process is by clearly setting desired outcomes or by agreeing on a shared aim across all delivery partners that commits to creating change.

Officials thought that imperative to successful system change, is the understanding that sufficient time needs to be given to set up partnerships and manage relationships.

Further, officials considered the need for greater flexibility at a local level. One, in terms of increased flexibility of funding conditions based on trust. Another, in terms of flexibility in procurement and commissioning processes that are conducive of change in a timely way.

Local delivery

Wider systemic change can often be implemented at a local level. Local delivery staff should feel empowered to work flexibly to respond to individual and family needs. For this to happen, delivery staff need to be aware and know what support is available in the system.

It is anticipated that senior leaders at a local level need to actively pursue a culture change that allows system change to take place.

Any change needs to be supported by resources. On one side resources to support the delivery of the actual services. But also, resource, systems and training available to support the coordination and referrals across the various services that support families in need.

Intended outcomes

The final stage on the logic model development process is to define the intended outcomes.

There are two levels of intended outcomes. Firstly, system-change outcomes. That is the desired outcomes at national, local, and individual system levels. Then, it is the overarching child poverty outcomes. That is the desired impacts of system change on child poverty drivers and ultimately child poverty targets.

System outcomes

At a system level, outcomes can be grouped in three themes:

• Changes in understanding, knowledge and awareness of local need
• Changes in collaboration and partnership working
• Changes in people’s navigation and use of systems

Changes in understanding, knowledge and awareness of local need

Ultimately, the outcomes would see (1) systems designed to meet and respond to local needs and (2) services that are flexible and adaptable to specific local needs.

Specifically, this would mean:

• Improved involvement of people with lived experience of policy in service design and decisions
• Continuous learning used to effectively improve services
• Improved use of data to target support and increase take up
• Better knowledge management and data sharing at local partnership level to make services more efficient and reduce the burden on individuals accessing multiple services (while managing data protection issues)
• Frontline staff empowered to support people and knowledgeable about the needs of families and the support and routes available to them
• Improvements in how local partners come together at the planning stage to use funding effectively based on evidence
• Improved use of local assets to support service delivery (including third sector and community partners)
• Increased knowledge of people’s support needs and barriers

Changes in collaboration and partnership working

Ultimately, the outcome would see (1) more effective collaboration between national and local government, delivery partners and organisations and (2) services that are joined up with a “no wrong door” approach embedded across the system.

Specifically, this would mean:

• Increased buy-in from local partners around the shared outcomes
• Improved sharing of learning across places and between local places and national policy makers
• Improved ways to collaborate and resolve challenges and issues
• Strong coordination within the Scottish Government across policy areas and improved knowledge management
• Funding structures set up to support collaboration and innovation, which includes more flexible and streamlined funding with more appropriate reporting demands
• In-person services better aligned and, where possible, located to improve coordination and access for people
• Increased collaboration and communication at all levels of the system and between all partners

Changes in people’s navigation and use of systems

Ultimately, the outcomes would see (1) services available and accessible to everyone who needs them, (2) people receiving the right support at the right time and (3) people feeling empowered and able to participate.

Specifically, this would mean:

• More efficient systems which provide more timely access to support when families require it
• More holistic and responsive support which takes account of families’ multiple needs and priorities and provides the right level(s) of support
• Services better targeted to the people who need them, with consideration given to reaching families with more complex needs and requirements
• Reduced discrimination in service delivery
• Families have increased knowledge of support available to get them where they to be, and where to access it
• Families experience a smoother, easier journey through support they access and any referrals onto other services
• People have improved experiences when accessing services and improved trust in services

Child poverty outcomes

The ultimate long term outcome is to see a sustained reduction in child poverty. We know that there are three main drivers of poverty.

• Improved income from employment
• Reduced costs of living
• Increased income from social security and benefits in-kind.

However, the three drivers of poverty should not been seen as an end in themselves. Improving wellbeing, quality of life and life chances are broader outcomes.

Learning over the first delivery plan, Every Child, Every Chance, showed us that many of the individual actions would probably not be sufficient on their own to lift families with children out of poverty. Instead, a package of policies that fit seamlessly together is anticipated to be required. As a result of this learning, many policies in the new delivery plan, Best Start, Bright Futures reflected the complex system. It is anticipated that improvements to the child poverty system should help families in poverty and ultimately reduce poverty rates.

The specific links between child poverty outcomes and some of the individual initiatives referred to in this document can be found in Annex 5 of Best Start, Bright Futures. This Annex and the Theory of Change should be viewed alongside one another in order to understand how individual system changes can contribute to the long-term outcomes of reducing child poverty.