Tackling child poverty: first year progress report (2018 to 2019)

4. At A Glance Summaries

Introduction

This section of the report provides a series of ‘at a glance’ tables, including: progress made and equality considerations; resources invested from our Tackling Child Poverty Fund and more widely to tackle child poverty in 2018-19, and; how we have addressed the requirements of the Child Poverty Act and recommendations and comments from the Poverty and Inequality Commission.

The first table provides overall progress on each of the actions committed; whether we are delivering, in progress, or at early stages of development. It also sets out which of the priority families we expect to benefit and the expected outcome.

The Poverty and Inequality Commission asked for us to be clear on investment made from the Tackling Child Poverty Fund. Our second table responds to this ask, clearly setting out what has been spent from the fund or committed to date.

The Commission also asked for us to be clear on our wider investment to tackle poverty. Our third table sets out Scottish Government investment directed at low income households with children and investment targeted at low income households more generally – where children are also expected to benefit.

This latter table is currently our best estimate, but we acknowledge that this is challenging work. Further work will be done ahead of the second progress report to ensure investment information is as accurate and up to date as it can be.

The final table outlines the requirements of the Child Poverty Act, and how we have addressed each within this report. As the Act requires us to respond to the comments and recommendations of the Poverty and Inequality Commission, this is also noted here.

Progress Against Actions And Impact On Priority Families

The following table provides an at a glance update on the status of all of the actions in “Every Child, Every Chance” and which priority family is expected to benefit from which action in the Plan.

We are delivering strong progress against the actions committed, with 48 of 58 actions in progress or being delivered.

Priority families:

LP Lone Parents

ME Minority Ethnic

M Mothers Aged <25

<1 Youngest Child Aged <1

3+ 3+ Children

DAC Disabled Adult or Child

Expected outcome:

EMP Increasing income from employment – relevant to all four targets

HC Reducing housing costs – relevant to all four targets

OC Reducing other costs of living – relevant to the low income and material deprivation target

SS Increasing income from social security and benefits in kind – relevant to all four targets

LC Improving children’s life chances in ways that are not about increasing current income or reducing costs of living – potentially relevant to future child poverty levels, when these children become parents themselves

* action not previously included in ‘Every Child, Every Chance’

Investments Through The Tackling Child Poverty Fund

As outlined within ‘Every Child, Every Chance’, by March 2018 we had committed approximately half of the Tackling Child Poverty Fund. This was supporting key initiatives outlined in the Plan, such as intensive employment support for parents [£12 million], expansion of Children’s Neighbourhoods Scotland [£2 million] and our new Innovation Fund, in partnership with the Hunter Foundation [£7.5 million].

The table below outlines provisional levels of spending over the period to 2022, all totals expressed are £0.000m:

Programme	Year				Total (m)*
	2018-19	2019-20	2020-21	2021-22
Parent Employment Programme	£0.050	£2.000	£5.100	£5.050	£12.200
Disability Employment Programme for parents	0	0	£3.000	£3.000	£6.000
Timewise	0	£0.026	0	0	£0.026
Out of School Care Fund**	0	0	£1.500	£1.500	£3.000
Food Insecurity	£0.100	£0.500	0	0	£0.600
Healthier Wealthier Children	£0.250	£0.250	0	0	£0.500
New support for affordable credit – help with marketing	£0.080	0	£0.080	0	£0.160
Children's Neighbourhoods Scotland	£0.250	£0.374	£0.818	£0.828	£2.270
Preventative work for low income young people at college	£0.242	£0.308	£0.400	£0.400	£1.350
Gypsy/Traveller	0	£0.100	£0.200	£0.200	£0.500
New Innovation Fund with The Hunter Foundation	£1.100	£1.250	£1.400	£1.250	£5.000
National Child Poverty Coordinator	£0.069	£0.069	£0.070	£0.070	£0.278
Local analytical partnership	£0.020	£0.020	£0.020	0	£0.060
Local support – first year reporting	£0.190	0	0	0	£0.190
Total Investment	£2.35m	£4.9m	£12.6m	£12.3m	£32.1m

*totals may not sum due to rounding

** In year investment subject to change

Over the period 2018-19, we have identified further programmes which will benefit from investment from the Fund, including a new disability employment programme for parents [£6 million] and a feasibility study for a new ‘Centre for Flexible Work’ [£25,750].

We have still to commit around £18 million from the fund, and we will consider what existing programmes we can scale up; to maximise impact, and what further investment we can make to address child poverty.

Investment To Support Children In Poverty

We are clear that significant investment is required in order to meet our ambitious targets. But we are also clear that there is no easy route to solve child poverty and we have to invest across a wide range of programmes and national outcomes in order to make a long term sustainable difference.

Part of our investment is, and will continue to be, specifically directed to low income children and their families. The following table shows that nearly £302 million was invested in this way in 2018-19. Part of our investment will also be related to a broader range of programmes that have positive impacts for low income households, many of whom will be parents. The table also shows that over £225 million is estimated to have been invested through this route: in total this means a direct investment of over £527 million in 2018-19.

However, this investment is not the full picture. Scotland is choosing a different path, one where we understand that dignity and respect is important to everyone. Key to this is a commitment to a social contract where services are delivered that help individuals within a supportive structure. As such, it would be incorrect to measure child poverty investment solely on funding targeted at low income children, but to also recognise the multi-billion pound package of investment in key areas that aim to change structures and remove barriers so that all children and all parents, whether low income or not, can realise their potential and contribute to society. Key spend items include the multi-year funding package which will see annual revenue investment in early learning and childcare reach nearly £1 billion by 2021‑22; the £301 million budgeted in 2018-19 for free university tuition fees alongside substantial apprenticeship programmes; and investment in developing a strong inclusive and environmentally sustainable economy based on fair work.

Coming into force in April 2018, our progressive changes to income tax are supporting these investments and see 55% of Scottish taxpayers, on lower incomes, pay less income tax than if they lived elsewhere in the UK. Through this change we are raising around £500 million in additional revenue in 2019-20, compared to UK Government proposals. This is helping us to invest in our public services, support our economy and drive action to reduce child poverty.

To make a lasting difference investment has to go far beyond headline actions, with all areas of government contributing to tackling and reducing child poverty. We are confident that this approach will have the long term impacts that we require, but it does make it challenging to provide the budgetary analysis that stakeholders understandably would like to see. Over the next year we will work to improve our budgetary analysis to be able to present a better understanding of investment in child poverty and in our broader social contract.

The table following provides a breakdown of estimated spend on policies which are targeted at children in low income households, at all people in low income, or at all children. These figures come from a variety of sources in addition to the draft 2018-19 budget documents and represents a mixture of committed, estimated, and outturn spend, depending on the latest available data. We have excluded admin costs where possible.

For policies targeted at all people in low income, we have used the proportion of people in poverty who are children to derive an estimated spend on children in poverty (23%). For Council Tax Reduction (CTR), estimated spend is based on total CTR income foregone from households with children as at March 2019, adjusted by the estimated proportion of children in CTR households in poverty (AHC).

The table shows that the total estimated spend on children in poverty in 2018-19 was over £527 million. The true figure will be significantly higher as this excludes core universal services such as education and health, which also benefit children in poverty.

Policy	Total 2018-19 spend (£m)	Estimated spend on children in poverty (£m)
Targeted at low income households with children
Attainment Scotland Fund1	184.00	184.00
Free School Meals – P4+	74.69	74.69
Education Maintenance Allowance	24.38	24.38
Healthy Start vouchers	3.71	3.71
School Clothing Grant	6.00	6.00
Inspiring 14:19 Fund	2.50	2.50
Financial Health Check	1.80	1.80
Best Start Grant1	3.50	3.50
STV Children's Appeal	1.00	1.00
Healthier Wealthier Children	0.25	0.25
Total	301.83	301.83
Targeted at low income households – not necessarily with children
Affordable Homes	522.60	120.20
Council Tax Reduction3	351.00	50.76
Fuel Poverty / Energy Efficiency	84.30	19.39
Discretionary Housing Payments	61.70	14.19
Scottish Welfare Fund	33.00	7.59
Empowering Communities Fund4	35.25	8.11
Fair Start Scotland	15.70	3.61
Advice Services	3.30	0.76
Fair Food Fund	1.50	0.35
Affordable Credit Loan Fund	1.00	0.23
Social Innovation Partnership	0.82	0.19
UC Scottish Choices	0.08	0.02
Total	1,110.25	225.39
Total5	1,412.08	527.22

1 Including Pupil Equity Fund.
2 Spend from 10 Dec 2018 - 28 Feb 2019.
3 Funding provided to Local Authorities.
4 Including Aspiring Communities Fund and Social Economy Growth Fund.
5 Total does not include universal entitlements, e.g. ELC, Free School Meals p1-p3.

Child Poverty (Scotland) Act 2017 Requirements

Section 10 of the Child Poverty Act sets out a range of requirements around progress reports. This table explains how we have met those requirements, with directions to the relevant sections or specific pages within the Plan.

The Scottish Ministers must, before the end of the period of three months beginning with the last day of each reporting year, prepare a report (a “progress report”) on the progress made during the year- towards meeting the child poverty targets, and in implementing the relevant delivery plan.	This is the first progress report due under the Child Poverty Act. Section 2 outlines our approach to assessing progress toward meeting the targets. It presents the most recent data for the four targets. The most recent child poverty statistics available describe the situation in 2017-18, which covers the period before publication of the Tackling Child Poverty Delivery Plan. These statistics provide the baseline for future progress. Statistics covering 2018-19 will be published in spring 2020. Progress in implementing the delivery plan (2018-22) is set out in section 3.
A progress report must in particular describe-
The measures taken by the Scottish Ministers in accordance with that delivery plan.	Section 3 contains an update on each action committed.
The effect of those measures on progress towards meeting the child poverty targets.	Section 2 sets out plans for evaluation in the longer term. Impact assessments are noted within section 3 of the published delivery plan.
The effect of those measures on reducing the number of children living in single-parent households against each of the four targets.	Section 2 presents the most recent child poverty statistics for the six priority families identified in ‘Every Child, Every Chance’ – including children living in single parent households. These cover the period before publication of the Tackling Child Poverty Delivery Plan, and provide the baseline for future progress. Section 4 sets out which of the actions in the Delivery Plan are intended to benefit these children.
The effect of those measures on children living in households whose income is adversely affected, or whose expenditure is increased, because a member of the household has one or more protected characteristics.	Section 2 presents the most recent child poverty statistics for the six priority families identified in ‘Every Child, Every Chance’ – including children living in families that include a disabled adult or child, minority ethnic families, families with a child under one year old, and families where the mother is under 25 years of age. These cover the period before publication of the Tackling Child Poverty Delivery Plan, and provide the baseline for future progress. Section 4 sets out which of the actions in the Delivery Plan are intended to benefit these children.
If, in preparing a progress report -
Scottish Ministers consider that the measures taken in accordance with the relevant delivery plan have not delivered sufficient progress towards meeting the child poverty targets, the progress report must describe how the Scottish Ministers propose to ensure sufficient progress is delivered in the future.	The single-year statistics published in March 2019 cover the period 2017-18. This date range predates the publication of the delivery plan. Therefore it is too early to determine whether progress is sufficient. Clearly, a number of significant actions were taken forward in 2018‑19 and more are planned for 2019-20, We would expect these, once fully in place, to start to shift the curve on child poverty.
In preparing a progress report, the Scottish Ministers must -
consult the Commission on: the progress made during the reporting year towards meeting the child poverty targets, whether it appears to the Commission that such progress is sufficient to meet the child poverty targets, what further progress the Commission considers is required to meet the child poverty targets. And, include any comments or recommendations made by the Commission on the matters mentioned above.	In April 2019, the Cabinet Secretary wrote to the Chair of the Poverty and Inequality Commission to request advice on the report, providing detail of progress to date. The advice received will be published by the Commission on 26 June. We have set out throughout the document where and how we have taken account of the Commission’s recommendations and comments. Further detail is provided below.

Responding to the advice and comments of the Poverty and Inequality Commission:

In relation to whether progress is sufficient to meet the targets:
The Commission considers that within existing budget resources, it will be almost impossible for the Scottish Government to meet the targets. Meeting the targets will require significant reallocation of resource from other areas or the raising of additional revenue.	Section 3 sets out plans for new investment through the Scottish Child Payment. Section 4 sets out an estimate of wider investment to tackle child poverty and current revenue raised through devolved tax.
The Commission provided 6 core recommendations in relation to further progress required to meet the child poverty targets:
Action should be taken to speed up delivery of the Income Supplement.	Section 3 sets out plans for the new Scottish Child Payment.
The Scottish Government should focus its efforts on those actions that are likely to have the biggest impact on the child poverty targets	Section 3 sets out the range of action planned, aligned to the three key drivers of child poverty reduction.
The Scottish Government should estimate/model the number of children it expects to be lifted out of poverty by the key actions in its Delivery Plan.	Section 2 sets out our plans for evaluation of key programmes to tackle child poverty. Estimates of cumulative impact are not possible at this stage
The Scottish Government should identify opportunities to involve children and families in the development and delivery of the actions in the Delivery Plan.	We undertook engagement with the Children’s Parliament on the overall package of support to families. Children and young people have been involved in a range of engagement on key programmes including the Best Start Grant.
The Scottish Government should have a greater focus on creating and improving jobs in relation to child poverty and should take account of the Commission’s research on inclusive growth.	Section 3, sections A and E, sets out our plans for a fair work future and to promote Inclusive Growth through Regional Economic Partnerships.
In its progress report, the Scottish Government should set out how much of the Tackling Child Poverty Fund has been spent or committed so far.	Section 4 sets out investment totals from the Tackling Child Poverty Fund.
The Commission made broader comments and recommendations:
The Scottish Government should set out safeguards on evaluation for Fair Start Scotland, Early Learning and Childcare and housing as they do not have reducing child poverty as their primary objective.	Section 2 sets out our general plans for evaluation. Section 3 sets out plans in relation to these policies.
Commit to evaluate Parental Employment Support Fund and Income Supplement	Section 2 confirms we will evaluate these policies.
Early Learning and Childcare modelling should be carried out if it has not been done already.	Section 3 confirms plans to evaluate the impact of Early Learning and Childcare.
The progress report should – focus on the core actions that are likely to have the biggest impact on reaching the child poverty targets and explain the scale of impact that they are expected to have and the timescales for that impact. clearly set out the money spent so far and plans for future spend to tackle child poverty. set out monitoring and evaluation arrangements for the core actions and any data currently available.	Section 3 provides detailed updates for actions likely to have the biggest impact on the child poverty targets. Estimates on the impact are included for these actions. Section 4 sets out investment in 2018-19 to tackle child poverty – future investment is noted against each action where appropriate in Section 3. Section 2 sets out plans for monitoring and evaluation.