Teacher Workforce Planning - 2017 exercise - Statistical modelling paper
Teacher Workforce Planning Advisory Group - Statistical modelling paper 2017
1. Model Inputs
1.1. Pupil projections
Pupil Projections, 2017-2022
The primary school roll has been rising over the last five years but is set to stabilise from 2018 onwards. At secondary, however, the pupil roll increased in 2017 for the first time in 14 years. This was largely due to the increased primary roll graduating onto secondary school and increases in staying on rates (both S4-S5 and S5-S6) in recent years.
| All pupils | ||
|---|---|---|
| S3-S5 | S3-S6 | |
| 2009 | 79.7% | 49.2% |
| 2010 | 82.9% | 53.3% |
| 2011 | 83.4% | 55.6% |
| 2012 | 84.9% | 58.3% |
| 2013 | 86.1% | 60.3% |
| 2014 | 87.2% | 61.7% |
| 2015 | 87.7% | 62.7% |
| 2016 | 87.3% | 62.6% |
| 2017 | 87.4% | 62.2% |
1.2. Pupil Census
The 2017 Pupil Census showed an increase of around 3,600 primary pupils and an increase of around 1,000 secondary pupils, compared to 2016.
1.3. Teacher Census
The 2017 Teacher Census reported an increase in primary teachers of 556 FTE and an increase in secondary teachers of 193 FTE. There was also small decreases in the number of special school teachers (-33), centrally employed (-110) and early learning and childcare teachers (-64).
Teacher Census figures include 666 Attainment Scotland Fund (ASF) funded posts. This demand for teachers in the sector is accounted for in this year’s workforce planning process, as vacant posts due to ASF demands will have appeared in the vacancy figures which have been accounted for in the statistical model.
1.4. Age profiles of teachers
The 2017 Teacher Census data shows that the age profile of teachers has changed much over recent years. The prominent peak in the fifties, as seen in 2008, no longer exists and there is now a peak in the mid-thirties.
1.5. Working patterns
The percentage of teachers working part-time has been fluctuating slightly over the last nine years and increased by 1.2 percentage points from 21.2% in 2015 to 22.4% in 2016, the highest rate over this period. (Data on working patterns is not yet available for 2017)
| Full time | Part time | Total Head count | Percentage part time | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 43,660 | 10,767 | 54,427 | 19.8 | |
| 2011 | 42,572 | 10,701 | 53,273 | 20.1 | |
| 2012 | 42,497 | 10,568 | 53,065 | 19.9 | |
| 2013 | 42,472 | 10,427 | 52,899 | 19.7 | |
| 2014 | 41,934 | 10,866 | 52,800 | 20.6 | |
| 2015 | 41,884 | 11,256 | 53,140 | 21.2 | |
| 2016 | Primary | 19,770 | 7,263 | 27,033 | 26.9 |
| Secondary | 20,345 | 4,299 | 24,644 | 17.4 | |
| Special | 1,575 | 528 | 2,103 | 25.1 | |
| Total | 41,701 | 12,003 | 53,704 | 22.4 | |
The local authority vacancy collection in September showed that there were 309 pre-school/primary and 507 secondary full-time and part-time permanent vacancies as at 20th September 2017 (excluding head teachers and deputy head teachers).
The target student intake figures have been increased in line with these figures (accounting for drop out etc) on a one year basis for primary and a phased, more manageable, three year basis for secondary.
Increasing target student intakes is not a guarantee that vacancies will be filled.
Contact
Email: annabella.balloch@gov.scot
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