Teacher Workforce Planning - 2017 exercise - Statistical modelling paper

2. Assumptions

2.1. Leaver rates

Leaver rates are based on teachers in permanent employment only, as these are more stable and a more reliable measure of churn. Leavers include career breaks, retirements, teachers on maternity leave and any other long term or permanent move away from teaching. The percentage of permanent teachers “leaving” decreased from 6.4% in 2016 to 5.5% in 2017. Leaver rates for female teachers between the ages of 30-40 are broadly similar to 2016.

2.2. Returner rates

Returner rates are also based on teachers in permanent employment. The average of the last three years figures in primary appeared to be skewed due to a higher than normal number between 2015 and 2016. Rather than assume that this high rate of returners would continue in future years, the previous approach of using 500 has been used. This approach errs on the side of caution rather than roll-forward possibly high returner rates and subsequently underestimate need. .

The average of the last three years figures has been used for Secondary (452).

2.3. Supply pool

The model accounts for the need of a pool of supply teachers and increases the student intake figure by 12% for this purpose. This is in line with the figure used last year.