Teacher Workforce Planning - 2017 exercise - Statistical modelling paper
Teacher Workforce Planning Advisory Group - Statistical modelling paper 2017
4. Model Results
The combination of the primary school pupil roll falling and the recent increase in primary teachers means that the model projects a lower requirement for new student teachers. Accounting for the pre-school and primary vacancies, the model projects that the 2018 intake target should be cut.
At secondary, the peak in school aged children over the past five years can be seen to be shifting from primary to secondary school. This is countered by a recent increase in the number of secondary school teachers. Hence the model suggests the intake target remains the same.
Vacancies for secondary have been smoothed across 2018, 2019 and 2020.
| Entry Year | Primary | Primary | Secondary | Secondary | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BEd | PGDE | BEd | PGDE | ||
| 2017 target | 710 | 1,186 | 187 | 1,750 | 225 |
| 2017 actual | 774 | 1,259 | 170 | 1,226 | 228 |
| 2018 | 700 | 700 | 185 | 1,700 | 195 |
| 2019 | 700 | 300 | 185 | 1,650 | 195 |
| 2020 | 700 | 250 | 185 | 1,450 | 195 |
| 2021 | 700 | 250 | 185 | 900 | 195 |
| 2022 | 700 | 500 | 185 | 700 | 195 |
PRI vacancies accounted for in 2018 intake only
SEC vacancies accounted for across 2018-2020 intake
The model outputs have been rounded to the nearest fifty.
Primary and Secondary Teacher Projections, 2017-2023
| Primary | Projected pupils (pre-school, primary and half of special) | Demand for teachers at start of academic year | Change in demand from previous year | Leavers during previous year | Vacancies arising during previous year | Teachers returning to profession in previous year | Projected Deficit at start of year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 493,430 | 26,443 | |||||
| 2018 | 491,651 | 26,528 | 86 | 1,435 | 1,368 | 500 | 868 |
| 2019 | 489,113 | 26,461 | -67 | 1,404 | 1,232 | 500 | 1,042* |
| 2020 | 484,474 | 26,289 | -172 | 1,407 | 1,284 | 500 | 784 |
| 2021 | 481,038 | 26,167 | -122 | 1,382 | 1,225 | 500 | 725 |
| 2022 | 476,928 | 26,010 | -157 | 1,365 | 1,145 | 500 | 645 |
| 2023 | 473,749 | 25,790 | -220 | 1,340 | 1,343 | 500 | 843 |
| Secondary | Projected pupils (secondary and half of special) | Demand for teachers at start of academic year | Change in demand from previous year | Leavers during previous year | Vacancies arising during previous year | Teachers returning to profession in previous year | Projected Deficit at start of year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 284,331 | 24,783 | |||||
| 2017 | 285,329 | 25,022 | 239 | 1,320 | 1,751 | 452 | 1,298 |
| 2018 | 288,882 | 25,453 | 431 | 1,298 | 1,802 | 452 | 1,518** |
| 2019 | 295,569 | 25,956 | 503 | 1,292 | 1,635 | 452 | 1,352** |
| 2020 | 302,978 | 26,300 | 343 | 1,264 | 1,582 | 452 | 1,299** |
| 2021 | 307,813 | 26,618 | 318 | 1,262 | 1,639 | 452 | 1,187 |
| 2022 | 312,423 | 26,995 | 377 | 1,248 | 1,248 | 452 | 796 |
| 2023 | 315,634 | 26,995 | 0 | 1,227 | 1,115 | 452 | 663 |
Contact
Email: annabella.balloch@gov.scot
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