Teacher Workforce Planning - 2018 exercise - Statistical modelling paper
Teacher Workforce Planning Advisory Group - Statistical modelling paper 2018
1. Model Inputs
1.1. Pupil projections
Pupil Projections, 2018-2022
The primary school roll has been rising in recent years but the 2017 based projections show the number of primary pupils has peaked and are projected to drop slightly to the end of the projection period.
At secondary, however, the pupil roll increased in 2017 for the first time in 14 years. This was largely due to the increased primary roll graduating onto secondary school and increases in staying on rates (both S4-S5 and S5-S6) in recent years. The projections show the number of secondary pupils continuing to rise steadily to 2022.
| All pupils | ||
|---|---|---|
| S3-S5 | S3-S6 | |
| 2009 | 79.7% | 49.2% |
| 2010 | 82.9% | 53.3% |
| 2011 | 83.4% | 55.6% |
| 2012 | 84.9% | 58.3% |
| 2013 | 86.1% | 60.3% |
| 2014 | 87.2% | 61.7% |
| 2015 | 87.7% | 62.7% |
| 2016 | 87.3% | 62.6% |
| 2017 | 87.4% | 62.2% |
1.2. Pupil Census
The 2018 Pupil Census showed an decrease of 36 primary pupils and an increase of around 4,150 secondary pupils, compared to 2017.
1.3. Teacher Census
The 2018 Teacher Census reported an increase in primary teachers of 422 FTE and an increase in secondary teachers of 167 FTE. There was also a small increase in the number of special school teachers (47) and a decrease in centrally employed (-90). There was also a decrease in early learning and childcare teachers (-99).
The teacher FTE count includes 962 Attainment Scotland Fund (ASF) funded posts. This demand for these teachers is accounted for in this year’s workforce planning process, as vacant posts due to ASF demands will have appeared in the vacancy figures which have been accounted for in the statistical model.
1.4. Age profiles of teachers
The 2018 Teacher Census data shows that the age profile of teachers has changed much over the past 15 years. The prominent peak of teachers in their fifties, as seen in 2008, no longer exists and the age distribution is now more even.
1.5. Working patterns
The percentage of teachers working part-time has been fluctuating slightly over the last nine years and increased by 1.2 percentage points from 22.4% in 2016 to 23.4% in 2017, the highest rate over this period. (Data on working patterns is not yet available for 2018)
| Full time | Part time | Total Head count | Percentage part time | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 46,202 | 9,716 | 55,918 | 17.4 | |
| 2009 | 44,757 | 10,361 | 55,118 | 18.8 | |
| 2010 | 43,660 | 10,767 | 54,427 | 19.8 | |
| 2011 | 42,572 | 10,701 | 53,273 | 20.1 | |
| 2012 | 42,497 | 10,568 | 53,065 | 19.9 | |
| 2013 | 42,472 | 10,427 | 52,889 | 19.7 | |
| 2014 | 41,934 | 10,866 | 52,800 | 20.6 | |
| 2015 | 41,884 | 11,256 | 53,140 | 21.2 | |
| 2016 | 41,701 | 12,003 | 53,704 | 22.4 | |
| 2017 | Primary | 20,012 | 7,809 | 27,821 | 28.1 |
| Secondary | 20,405 | 4,515 | 24,920 | 18.1 | |
| Special | 1,529 | 537 | 2,066 | 26.0 | |
| Total | 41,952 | 12,782 | 54,734 | 23.4 | |
1.6. Vacancy data
The local authority vacancy collection in September showed that there were 204 pre-school/primary and 402 secondary full-time and part-time permanent vacancies as at September 2018 (excluding head teachers and deputy head teachers).
The target student intake figures have been increased in line with these figures (accounting for drop out etc) on a one year basis for primary and a phased, more manageable, three year basis for secondary.
Increasing target student intakes is not a guarantee that vacancies will be filled.
Contact
Email: annabella.balloch@gov.scot
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