Teacher Workforce Planning - 2018 exercise - Statistical modelling paper

2. Assumptions

2.1. Leaver rates

Leaver rates are based on teachers in permanent employment only, as these are more stable and a more reliable measure of churn. Leavers include career breaks, retirements, teachers on maternity leave and any other long term or permanent move away from teaching. The percentage of permanent teachers “leaving” decreased from 5.5% in 2017 to 5.2% in 2018. Leaver rates for female teachers between the ages of 30-40 are broadly similar to previous years.

The pattern of maternity leavers by age was also similar to previous years.

2.2. Returner rates

Returner rates are also based on teachers in permanent employment.

The average of the last three years’ figures in primary was 461. The average of the last three years figures has been used for Secondary (352).

2.3. Supply pool

The model accounts for the need of a pool of supply teachers and increases the student intake figure by 12% for this purpose. This is in line with the figure used last year.