Teacher Workforce Planning - 2018 exercise - Statistical modelling paper

3. PTRs

The model is based on the assumption of maintaining pupil teacher ratios (PTRs), therefore it projects future teacher requirements in line with pupil projections on the basis of current PTRs.

The 2018 pupil and teacher census results show that the primary sector PTR has improved from 16.4 in 2017 to 16.1 in 2018, and the secondary PTR increased from 12.2 to 12.3.

3.1 Retention rates

Retention rates (ITE students who go on to the Teacher Induction Scheme) vary between routes. Retention rates for Primary BEd and PGDE courses are around 75% and 80% respectively. Rates for Secondary courses are around 85% (BEd) and 80% (PGDE).

3.2 Post-probationer employment rates

The 2018 Teacher Census indicates that there has been an increase in the proportion of post-probationers in employment (permanent or temporary, full time or part-time). The figure has risen from 66% in 2011 to 87% in 2018, with the largest increase in the proportion of post-probationers with full-time permanent contracts (up from 13% in 2010 to 55% in 2018).