Teacher Workforce Planning - 2018 exercise - Statistical modelling paper
Teacher Workforce Planning Advisory Group - Statistical modelling paper 2018
4. Model Results
The combination of the primary school pupil roll falling and the recent increase in primary teachers means that the model projects a lower requirement for new student teachers. Accounting for the pre-school and primary vacancies, the model projects that the 2019 intake target should be cut.
At secondary, the peak in school aged children over the past five years can be seen to be shifting from primary to secondary school. This is countered by a number of factors including an increase in the number of secondary school teachers and a decrease in the number of secondary vacancies. Hence the model suggests the intake target should remain at a similar level.
Vacancies for secondary have been smoothed across 2019, 2020 and 2021.
| Entry Year | Primary | Primary | Secondary | Secondary | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BEd | PGDE | BEd | PGDE | ||
| 2018 target | 710 | 1,230 | 190 | 1,750 | 250 |
| 2018 actual | 718 | 1,260 | 159 | 1,494 | 271 |
| 2019 | 700 | 500 | 185 | 1,750 | 195 |
| 2020 | 700 | 200 | 185 | 1,700 | 195 |
| 2021 | 700 | 350 | 185 | 1,600 | 195 |
| 2022 | 700 | 350 | 185 | 1,150 | 195 |
| 2023 | 700 | 450 | 185 | 850 | 195 |
Primary vacancies accounted for in 2019 intake only
Secondary vacancies accounted for across 2019-2021 intake
Note: Primary estimates do not include any additional requirement for ELC sector.
The model outputs have been rounded to the nearest fifty.
Primary and Secondary Teacher Projections, 2018-2023
| Primary | Projected pupils (pre-school, primary and half of special) | Demand for teachers at start of academic year | Change in demand from previous year | Leavers during previous year | Vacancies arising during previous year | Teachers returning to profession in previous year | Projected Deficit at start of year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 493,996 | 27,028 | |||||
| 2019 | 487,646 | 26,928 | -100 | 1,429 | 1,273 | 461 | 812 |
| 2020 | 483,273 | 26,771 | -156 | 1,394 | 1,198 | 461 | 941* |
| 2021 | 479,876 | 26,575 | -196 | 1,373 | 1,114 | 461 | 653 |
| 2022 | 475,532 | 26,316 | -259 | 1,347 | 1,177 | 461 | 717 |
| 2023 | 472,402 | 26,146 | -170 | 1,330 | 1,193 | 461 | 732 |
| Secondary | Projected pupils (secondary and half of special) | Demand for teachers at start of academic year | Change in demand from previous year | Leavers during previous year | Vacancies arising during previous year | Teachers returning to profession in previous year | Projected Deficit at start of year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 289,563 | 24,924 | |||||
| 2019 | 296,014 | 25,358 | 433 | 1,282 | 1,755 | 352 | 1,403 |
| 2020 | 303,037 | 25,830 | 473 | 1,277 | 1,583 | 352 | 1,365** |
| 2021 | 307,630 | 26,136 | 306 | 1,266 | 1,576 | 352 | 1,358** |
| 2022 | 312,311 | 26,446 | 310 | 1,270 | 1,473 | 352 | 1,255** |
| 2023 | 315,360 | 26,649 | 203 | 1,245 | 1,326 | 352 | 974 |
Contact
Email: annabella.balloch@gov.scot
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