Teacher Workforce Planning Advisory Group minutes: September 2024

Attendees and apologies

• Stuart Robb, Scottish Government (Joint Chair)
• Carrie McLennan, SCDE (Joint Chair)
• Hulda Sveinsdottir, Aberdeen University
• Michael Wood, ADES
• Greg Dempster, AHDS
• Michael Boyle, Clackmannanshire Council
• Stuart Bain, COSLA
• Suzanne McLeod, COSLA
• Pauline Stephen, GTCS
• Morag Redford, UHI
• Scarlett Campbell, SFC
• Graham Hutton, SLS
• Terry Gray, SNCT
• Glenda Gray, SPDS
• Morag Redford, UHI
• Gavin Lee, UWS
• Alasdair Anthony, Scottish Government
• Zak Tuck, Scottish Government
• Scott Brand, Scottish Government
• Annabella Balloch, Scottish Government

Items and actions

Welcome/introductions

The chair welcomed members and stated that this is was an additional meeting of Teacher Workforce Planning Advisory Group to discuss the initial planned approach to this year’s workforce planning, with a particular focus on intakes to primary programmes. A further meeting will be held in October/November when the modelling paper will be available.

General Teaching Ccouncil Scotland Register - Registration Snapshot Report (draft)

General Teaching Council Scotland (GTCS) provided an overview of the report. This is the 2nd annual report so caution on the trends shown over two years should be used (2023 & 2024 comparison) but these will be built upon by future reports and will complement existing data in the system. The report is in draft and will be finalised following discussion at the next GTCS council meeting.

• Members offered the following comments on the paper:​​​​​​
• ​6,426 teachers not identifying their employer. This is mandatory and GTCS will aim to ensure system fully gathers this information next year.
• This information needs to link with demographic data. The workforce planning model uses demographic data to inform intake options.
• The equalities, diversity and inclusion data may have to be more nuanced to draw firm conclusions and partners willing to work with GTCS on this.

2025/2026 Primary Intakes

The chair introduced this item and made a number of points about primary teacher numbers/ITE recruitment that have led to the current challenges we see in terms of the availability of jobs for primary teachers. In these circumstances the chair asked the Teacher Workforce Planning Advisory Group to consider whether a reduction to primary intake targets should be considered to address the current over-supply issue.

Members offered the following comments:

• Need to consider this within the context of the teacher numbers commitment and reducing class contact time (CCT). Modelling on CCT did not show a need for increasing the number of primary teachers in the system.
• Is there a geographic analysis of where the excess in primary teachers are to ensure some areas are not negatively impacted? Universities in rural areas are reporting a decline in applications which is probably due to lack of permanent posts on offer.
• Is there a geographic link to a student’s university and where they undertake probation and employment following that? No formal evidence to link area of study to future employment. For example, University West Scotland are situated in Ayr but supply teachers across the west of the central belt. Anecdotal evidence is that teachers are reluctant to move from their home area for employment opportunities.
• Need for a more joined-up experience covering ITE, probation (which is a education placement) and employment in early career. The Strategic Board for Teacher Education is currently looking at this area.
• Need to consider wider impact of any changes to ITE intake figures, for example university staffing requirements.
• Universities generally agree with a reduction to the overall primary intake targets. They would like to see this agreed as soon as possible for planning purposes.
• Universities already facing a challenging financial position due to the decreasing number of international students. Any reduction should aim to keep targets static for universities serving rural local authorities and ensure viable programmes are allocated suitable targets.
• Factors such as primary intakes against overall student intakes need to be considered to ensure universities future viability.   

Next Steps

The Chair outlined the next steps as:

• Circulating options on the reduction for discussion at the next meeting
• Reductions to primary intakes could be across undergraduate, combined and PGDE (possibly allowing universities to decide how to distribute between programmes).
• The reduction could potentially happen over a 2 year period (2025/26 & 26/27) to allow universities time to adjust. The level of reduction probably needs to be around 10% to 20% on current targets over these 2 years.
• Options will consider different approaches for the more rural HEIs.
• Further information will be circulated prior to the next meeting of TWPAG.

Enrolment and applications as at end July

Secretariat outlined that Scottish Government continue to gather monthly returns from universities forecasting their intakes. The data received at the end of July highlights the following points:

• Applications and acceptances to primary at PGDE, undergraduate and combined are high and targets should be met for PGDE although some uncertainty on undergraduate and combined.
• Applications and acceptances for secondary undergraduate and combined are near targets in best case scenarios.
• UCAS figures 15 days after clearing showed only a 2% increase for PGDE from Scottish domiciled students which covers both primary and secondary over last year.

This will be considered further at the next meeting on receipt of final figures.

New ITE provision 

Members were asked that when new programmes are being developed that these are made known to Scottish Government, Scottish Funding Council, Scottish Council Deans of Education and GTCS. This should allow for a more co-ordinated process and allow better planning.